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บทสรุปงานวิจัยจำนำข้าว - นิพนธ์ พัวพงศกร
บทสรุปงานวิจัยจำนำข้าว - นิพนธ์ พัวพงศกร
4 2557
5 2554/55 2556/57
4
()
()
()
()
() ()
(
)
2
( 2554 2557)
4
(welfare cost) (
producer and consumer surplus) (
)
5 54.35 9.85
8.57
2557
5.39 ( 53% )
5-10 17.4
6.7-7.5
2557 2.36
4 (
) (producer surplus)
5.6
(welfare cost ) 1.23
84,476.20 3
1.02
7.8 45,094 ( 44)
4 21,512 ( 21)
/ 1.1 8,541 ( 8)
2.9
25,616.95 ( 25)
2557
1.9 ( 2) 2
iii
. 2557
1.2 85
6.6 1.09
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5) 2554 2 (6)
(7)
7
()
(3.35 5 )
(3.69 3.59 )
/
4.1
3.7
(91 %)
36.44 %
6 5.85 51
24 14 9 2
0.4
()
(rent
seeking activities)
57.06 %
42
100 34-37
47%
5
(
)
(consolidated accounts)
(
) (
)
6 3
(1)
() 3 )
)
)
(2)
(3) ()
...
(4)
5%-10%
(5)
(
)
.
(6)
(realized loss)
(contingent debt) 5.4-7.5
.
( 26 2557)
(7).
30-50% (WFP: World Food Program)
(8)
1
50%
1
vii
) 50-60 )
15 3-5
3 (/) )
(9)
()
()
(
) ()
10%-30% () .
.
(10)
(labor productivity)
2554/55 2556/57
3
6
(surveyor)
4
5.6
5.4-7.5 (
)
1.23
8.4
4 1.02
4.5 2.2
8.5
2.7 1.02
. 2557
1.2 85
6.6-9.6 ()
1.09
5.85 2.97
1.38 8.4 5.4
9.6 2.2
10 1.
2.
3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
WFP 8.1 9.
10.
amounted to 27,567 million baht. Therefore total corruption in rice sale deals is 102 billion
baht. The figure is still underestimated given the fact that more than 55% of the remaining rice
stock (17.82 million tons) It should be noted that the estimates do not include corruption at
the upstream (farmers registration and rice sale to millers) and mid-stream levels (millers,
surveyors warehouse owners, and government officers).
The researchers also prooides a preliminary revised estimate of accounting loss and
corruption after a prelimmary report of stock checking in October 2014. The revised accounting
loss jumps to 660 to 960 billion baht, depending on how long it takes to sell all the rice stock.
The value of corruption arising from rice sale. The value of corruption arising from rice sale
slightly increases to 109 billion baht.
The paper also finds both the participants and non-participants of the rice pledging
program all agree to a high level of corruption in the program and that corruption exists in all
levels of operation. Similarly, interviews and field surveys reveal widespread rent-seeking
activities by all participants which include the farmers additional cost to increase rice
production, the millers expansion of milling capacity and the investment in warehouses and
storage capacity. Such activities are unsurprising by induced by the incentive to make more
money (economic rent) from the scheme. Total economic rent is estimated at 585.4 billion
baht, of which 296.5 billion baht went to the farmers, 138.5 billion to consumers, 84.5 billion
baht to connected traders, 54 billion baht to millers, 9.6 billion baht to warehouse owners,
and 2.2 billion baht to 20 surveyors. The investment in rent-seeking activities is the waste of
real resources for the society. Lastly, the government concealed the information on rice sale
and did not bother to prepare the consolidated financial accounts. As a result, there was
substantial cost over run and shortage of liquidity to pay the farmers.
In conclusion, the failure of the paddy pledging policy is caused both by the policy
mistakes (of buying every grain of rice at too high a price and government monopoly of the
rice market) and by the execution failure.
Nine recommendations can be drawn by the researchers. 1. Amend the constitution
and strengthen the law on the use of off budget to finance the government intervention
policies 2. Government must prepare a consolidated financial account for each intervention
policy. 3. Disclose all information on policy implementation to the public and revise the public
information law. 4. Limit or terminate unnecessary government intervention in markets. 5.
Independent reports on the actual impact of the rice pledging policy. 6. Fiscalize the loss after
closing of the rice pledging scheme accounts. 7. Donate rice to World Food Programme (WFP).
8. Streamline the direct subsidy for small farmers 9. Chan ging the methods of compensation
for crop loss due to disasters and pest out break. 10. Focus on reducing production cost and
increasing production yields.
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