TRNG I HC KINH T TP.

HCM
VIN O TO SAU I HC

Tiu lun mn hc:

QUN TR TI CHNH
ti:

PHN TCH V NH GI
CNG TY TP ON DU KH
ANPHA (ASP)

GVHD

: TS. Ng Quang Hun

Lp

: QTKD m 2 K21

SVTH

: Nguyn c Nam

TP HCM, nm 2013
[Type text]

Page 1

MC LC
PHN I: GII THIU V CNG TY..................................................................................................... 3
1.

Lch s hnh thnh ..................................................................................................................... 3

2.

Lnh vc kinh doanh ................................................................................................................... 4

3.

Chin lc pht trin v u t..................................................................................................... 4

4.

Nng lc cng ty .......................................................................................................................... 4

5.

V th cng ty .............................................................................................................................. 5

6.

Cc d n ln ............................................................................................................................... 5

7.

Trin vng cng ty ...................................................................................................................... 5

8.

Ri ro kinh doanh ....................................................................................................................... 6

PHN II: PHN TCH TI CHNH CNG TY C PHN TP ON DU KH ANPHA ................ 7

1.

Tc tng trng...................................................................................................................... 7

2.

Kh nng thanh ton .................................................................................................................. 7

3.

Hiu qu hot ng..................................................................................................................... 9

4.

Kh nng sinh li........................................................................................................................ 9

5.

Qun tr n ............................................................................................................................... 11

6.

Gi tr th trng....................................................................................................................... 12

7.

n by ti chnh ...................................................................................................................... 13

8.

M hnh Z ................................................................................................................................. 14

PHN III: NH GI CHNG KHON ASP ...................................................................................... 15

1.

Theo phng php P/E ............................................................................................................. 15

2.

Theo phng php nh gi trn gi tr TS rng ...................................................................... 16

3.

Theo phng php chit khu dng thu nhp FCFF ............................................................... 17

PHN IV: THIT LP DANH MC U T .................................................................................... 19

1.

T sut li nhun k vng, phng sai, lch chun v h s bin thin ca chng khon ASP 19

2.

Chn chng khon thit lp danh mc u t......................................................................... 20

3. T trng u t, h s hon vn k vng, lch chun v h s bin thin ca b chng khon

ASP & IMP ....................................................................................................................................... 21

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

PHN I: GII THIU V CNG TY
Tn cng ty: CNG TY C PHN TP ON DU KH ANPHA
Tn quc t: ANPHA PETROL JOINT STOCK COMPANY
Tn vit tt: ASP
Tr s chnh: D1 14 Khu ph M Giang 2, P. Tn Phong, Q. 7, TP.HCM
Website: www.anphapetrol.com
Ngnh: Du kh

1. Lch s hnh thnh

Thng 4/2004 Cng ty C phn Du kh Anpha S.G c thnh lp vi mc ch u t v
qun l h thng c s h tng nh kho d tr u mi v vn ti LPG cho i tc chin lc v
cc cng ty kinh doanh gas dn dng thng hiu Gia nh Gas (bao gm: Cng ty TNHH TMDV Gia nh - Thnh Ph H Ch Minh v Cng ty TNHH Kh t Gia nh - H Ni). Vn
iu l ban u l 15 t ng.
Ngy 01/03/2007: Tng vn iu l ln 126 t ng.
Thng 3/2007 Cng ty C phn Du kh Anpha S.G tr thnh Cng ty i chng. S
hu 99% vn iu l ca Cng ty TNHH DV TM Gia nh (TP HCM) vi thng
hiu Gia Dinh Gas.
Thng 04/2007: S hu 51% vn iu l ca Cng ty TNHH SX TM L.P.G Minh
thng vi thng hiu JP Gas.
Thng 05/2007: S hu 60% vn iu l Cng ty TNHH Kh t Gia nh (H Ni)
vi thng hiu Gia Dinh Gas.
Thng 06/2007: Thnh lp Cng ty Du kh An Pha Ty Nguyn (cng ty nm 55%
vn iu l) v mua li DNTN Hong Minh s hu thng hiu Dakgas.
Thng 10/2007: Bn 105 c phn cho NH u t v Pht trin Vit Nam v 8% cho
Cng ty Chng khon SK (Hn Quc).
Ngy 15/02/2008: C phiu ca cng ty chnh thc nim yt trn sn HOSE.
Ngy 06/02/2009: Tng vn iu l ln 210 t ng.
Ngy 15/06/2009: Tng vn iu l ln 228,9 t ng.
Thng 07/2009: Mua 100% c phn ca CTCP Du kh An Pha Ty Nguyn, cng ty
ny tr thnh Cng ty TNHH MTV Kh t Gia nh.
SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 3

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

Thng 08/2009: Mua 100% c phn ca Cng ty TNHH TM DV Minh Thng, cng
ty ny tr thnh Cng ty TNHH MTV Du kh An Pha Ty Ninh.
Thng 11/2009: Khnh thnh nh my chit np LPG, sn sa v bnh Gas ti KCN
Ninh Hip - Gia Lm - H Ni.

2. Lnh vc kinh doanh

Mua bn kh ho lng (LPG), vt t - thit b du kh.
i l kinh doanh xng, du, nht.
Kinh doanh vn ti sn phm du kh theo ng b, ng bin.
Chit np sn phm du kh (khng chit np ti tr s).
Lp t, bo dng cc cng trnh ngnh du kh. Cho thu kho bi, phng tin vn
ti chuyn dng ngnh du kh ng b, ng thy.
Kinh doanh cc ngnh ngh khc theo GCN KKD ca Cng ty.
3. Chin lc pht trin v u t
ANPHA PETROL l nh phn phi gas dn dng s 1 Vit nam vi hiu qu cao.
Xy dng c h thng nh phn phi, h thng phi thc s c kim sot bi
ANPHA PETROL.
M rng, a dng thm loi hnh kinh doanh, u t khc, ch trng mng u t khu
cng nghip ti mt s a phng ln cn TP HCM, thy in, u t ti chnh.
Tm kim i tc c nng lc ph hp mc ch ca Cng ty thc hin cc d n
ln trong lnh vc kinh doanh LPG v u t bt ng sn nh khu cng nghip, khu
dn c.
4. Nng lc cng ty
Anpha S.G c tr s chnh ti thnh ph H Ch Minh n v chuyn kinh doanh v vn ti
gas bng tu bin c thnh lp vo thng 4/2004. Vn iu l hin ti u nm 2009 l 210 t
ng. Hot ng kinh doanh chnh l Mua bn kh ho lng, vt t thit b du kh; Kinh doanh
vn ti sn phm du kh theo ng b, ng bin; Cho thu kho bi, phng tin vn ti
chuyn dng ngnh du kh ng b, ng thy trong v ngoi nc. Cng ty Anpha S.G
trang b i tu gas gm 4 chic c sc ch t 600 n 1.200 tn hng, ngoi ra cng ty cn s
hu kho cha LPG ln vi sc cha 3.100 tn. Hin nay cng ty s hu 2 kh cha LPG ln ti
SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 4

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

cng nh V - Hi Phng sc cha 1.800 tn v ti cng Bourbon - Long An c sc cha 1.300
tn, ngoi ra cn trm chit np ti cc cng ty thnh vin c tng sc cha khong 600 tn.

5. V th cng ty
Cng ty c i tu kh ho lng gm 04 chic ng trong top 3 Cng ty c s lng tu v ti
trng ln nht (PTSC-Petro Vietnam, Shinpetrol-Vinashin v Anpha Petrol). L mt trong bn
cng ty c h thng kho cha LPG u mi c 2 min Nam Bc (Petrolimex Gas, Total-Elf,
Petronas-Thng Long Gas, Petro VietNam Gas v Anpha Petrol).
Cng ty s hu 2 kh cha LPG ln. 1 ti cng nh v - Hi phng c sc cha 1.800 tn
v ti cng Bourbon - Long an c sc cha 700 tn, ngoi ra cn c trm chit np gas ti cc
cng ty thnh vin vi tng sc cha khong 600 tn.
S hu 2 trm chit p ln ti Ninh hip v Bn Lc, tng cng sut khong 150.000
tn/nm. i xe vn chuyn gas chuyn dng khong 100 chic.
Cng ty ng th 111/500 doanh nghip t nhn ln nht Vit Nam nm 2011 do Vietnam
Report cng b.
Th phn ca cng ty chim khong 13 - 14% LPG dn dng Vit Nam.
6. Cc d n ln
Tn d n: Thy in Nm Ha Ti x Mng Bm, Huyn Thun Chu Tnh Sn La .
Mc tiu u t d n: Sn xut in nng bn cho h thng in quc gia vi in lng
bnh qun hng nm 100,39 triu KWh.
Hnh thc u t: Xy dng - S hu Kinh doanh (BOO) - Cng sut lp my (2 bc):
26MW - Sn lng in trung bnh hng nm: 100,39 triu KWh.
Tng mc u t: 498,198 t ng. Ngun u t: 30% tng mc u t bng ngun vn
t c v t huy ng, 70% bng ngun vn ca cc ngn hng v t chc tn dng.(T l
s hu ca ASP l 55%)
Khu cng nghip v ti nh c ti x Long Phng - Cn Giuc - Long An: cui nm 2012
cng ty d kin trin khai n b, gii ta mt bng tin hnh xy dng d n ny.

7. Trin vng cng ty

Mc tiu ca cng ty l nhng khch hng ln s dng gas cng nghip nh cc cng ty
luyn thp, cng ty sn xut gm s, gch men.
SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 5

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

Trn th gii hin nay vn cha c sn phm no c u th hn c th thay th sn phm gas
nn chc chn nhu cu tiu th gas rt ln trong thi gian ti.

8. Ri ro kinh doanh
Sn lng khan him mt s i tc lu nm ca Cng ty ti Thi Lan ngng cung cp
LPG buc Cng ty phi tm nh cung cp thay th.
Do vic mua cc cng ty con bng ngun vn ngn hn nn trong thi gian kh di nn thiu
vn kinh doanh, b sung s thiu ht ny Cng ty phi huy ng t cc t chc tn dng
khin chi ph ti chnh tng cao nh hng ti kt qu kinh doanh.

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 6

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

PHN II: PHN TCH TI CHNH CNG TY C PHN TP ON
DU KH ANPHA
1.Tc tng trng

Nhn vo 3 nm 2010, 2011, 2012, ta thy doanh thu thun 2011 t mc cao nht vi tc
tng trng t 21.32%. Tuy nhin, n nm 2012 th tc ny li gim li 20.81%. Tuy
nm 2011, doanh thu l cao nht nhng li nhun trc thu v sau thu u st gim nghim
trng v m ln lt l 8,926 triu v 11,779 triu ng. Nguyn nhn l do chi ph ti chnh qu
ln, trong phn ln l do tc ng ca chi ph li vay vi li sut qu ln ln n mc 18,5%
vo thng 06/2011 v 18,73% vo thng 08/2011.
Doanh Thu

Li Nhun Trc Thu

Li Nhun Sau Thu

2. Kh nng thanh ton

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 7

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

T s thanh khon hin thi (CR) cho bit c mi

CR & QR

ng n ngn hn m doanh nghip ang gi, th doanh

nghip c bao nhiu ng ti sn lu ng c th s dng
thanh ton. Thng thng ch s ny nn ln hn 1, v
mc 2-3 l tt, tuy nhin CR qu cao li khng tt v
th hin hiu qu s dng ti sn ca cng ty khng cao.
y, t s ny ca c 3 nm 2010, 2011, 2012 u nh
hn 1 th c ngha l Cng ty Anpha khng ti sn c
th s dng ngay thanh ton khon n ngn hn sp
o hn. Nu so snh vi CR ca Ngnh (2.08) th CR
ca Anpha vn cn rt thp. Tuy nhin ch s ny c
ci thin tng ln vo nm 2012 (tuy vn cha n mc
1).
Trong ch s v kh nng thanh ton nhanh (QR) th th ti sn lu ng duy nht c dng
tnh t s thanh khon nhanh l lng tin mt doanh nghip c cho nn phi loi tr gi tr
hng tn kho mc d trong nhiu trng hp doanh nghip sn sng bn di gi tr s sch cc
khon hng tn kho bin thnh tin mt tht nhanh. Do khng c bin ng qu ln gi tr
hng tn kho cc nm, mc QR ca Anpha c 3 nm u tng ng vi CR v thp hn 1,
nu nm 2013 Anpha duy tr tng v tng ln 2-3 th tt, tuy nhin khng nn tng qu mc
ny v lc hiu qu s dng ti sn l thp.
Ch s thanh ton tin mt (CaR) cho bit bao nhiu tin mt v cc khon tng ng tin
(v d chng khon kh mi) ca doanh nghip p ng cc ngha v n ngn hn. So vi ch
s thanh ton hin thi (CR), hay ch s thanh ton nhanh (QR), CaR i hi kht khe hn v
tnh thanh khon. C rt t doanh nghip c s tin mt v cc khon tng ng tin p
ng ton b cc khon n ngn hn, do ch s thanh ton tin mt rt t khi ln hn hay bng
1 cho nn y cty Anpha cng khng ngoi l. iu ny cng khng qu nghim trng. Ta gi
s nu Anpha gi tin mt v cc khon tng ng tin mc cao bo m chi tr cc
khon n ngn hn l mt vic lm khng thc t v nh vy cng ng ngha vi vic Anpha
khng bit s dng loi ti sn c tnh thanh khon cao ny mt cch c hiu qu. Anpha hon
ton c th s dng s tin v cc khon tng ng tin ny to ra doanh thu cao hn (v d
cho vay ngn hn).
SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 8

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

3. Hiu qu hot ng

Vng quay tng ti sn (TAT) l mt t s ti chnh, l

So snh TAT ca ASP qua cc nm

thc o khi qut nht hiu qu s dng ti sn ca doanh

nghip. C mi ng ti sn to ra cho Anpha vo nm
2010, 2011, 2012 th em li cho cng cty ln lt l 1.91,
2.68, 2.41 ng doanh thu. Do cho thy vic s dng ti
sn ca Anpha vo cc hot ng sn xut kinh doanh hiu
qu nht l vo nm 2011 sau gim dn 2012 nhng gim
khng ng k.
So vi cc doanh nghip trong ngnh, Anpha c ch s
vng quay hng tn kho (ITA) cao hn vi trn 67
vng/nm. C th hnh dung n gin, trong 1 nm, mt
n v hng tn kho ca cng ty quay vng c trn 67
ln. Th tnh ton n gin vng quay hng tn kho nm

So snh ch s ITA vi cc cty

trong ngnh

2012 ca mt s cng ty kinh doanh Gas khc nh GAS,

PGC, PGD, c th thy c s so snh. Thng thng, ch
s vng quay hng tn kho cao cho ta thy hot ng hiu
qu ca mt doanh nghip, nht l trong giai on hng tn
kho l nhiu vn i vi cc doanh nghip. Tuy nhin
ch s cao bt thng c th cho thy cng ty "khng kp"
tch tr hng ha sn xut kinh doanh.

4. Kh nng sinh li

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 9

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

So snh t sut li nhun gp bin (GPM) qua

So snh GPM ca cty Anpha qua cc nm

cc nm ta thy c xu hng gim dn t nm 2010,

2011 n 2012, qua chng t mc hiu qu
khi s dng cc yu t u vo (vt t, lao ng)
km dn trong quy trnh sn xut ca Anpha. Ngoi
ra, nu so snh ch s ny vi ch s ca ngnh th
r rng t s ca cc cng ty i th nh u cao
hn, Anpha rt kh cnh tranh c vi cng ty

So snh ch s GPM vi cc cty trong

ngnh

cng ngnh ny v cn cn phi c i sch ci

thin hiu qu s dng ca cc yu t u vo.

So snh t sut danh li rng (NPM) qua cc nm ta

thy : Nm 2011, tuy doanh thu tng cao nht trong 3 nm

So snh NPM ca Anpha qua cc nm

nhng LN rng li gim thp nht v b m. Nguyn nhn

l s tng trng doanh thu qu thp so vi mc tng chi
ph (bao gm chi ph mua hng bn v chi ph qun l) ,
cc l do khc lin quan n thu. Ngoi ra chi ph ti
chnh, trong chi ph li vay vt tri vo nm 2011
khin LN rng Anpha b st gim nghim trng.
So snh ROA, ROE
T s li nhun rng trn ti sn (ROA) v t s li

ca Anpha qua cc nm

nhun trn vn ch s hu (ROE) cng cao cho thy doanh

nghip lm n cng hiu qu. Vo nm 2011, 2 ch s ny
m cho thy Anpha lm n b l ch yu l l do hot ng
ti chnh. Vo nm 2012, ROE ln hn ROA th c ngha
l n by ti chnh ca Anpha c tc dng tch cc,
ngha l Anpha thnh cng trong vic huy ng vn ca
SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 10

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

c ng kim li nhun vi t sut cao hn t l tin li
m cng ty phi tr cho cc c ng.

Nm 2012, nu so snh ROA v

So snh ch s ROA & ROE vi cc cty trong ngnh

ROE ca Anpha vi cc cng ty cng

ngnh th hiu qu ca c 2 ch s ny
u thp hn GAS, PGC, PGD, PGS v
Ngnh cho thy hiu qu qun l v s
dng ti sn to ra thu nhp ca
doanh nghip khng c tt.

5. Qun tr n

T s n trn ti sn (D/A) ny cho bit c bao

So snh D/A ca Anpha qua cc nm

nhiu phn trm ti sn ca doanh nghip l t i

vay. Qua y bit c kh nng t ch ti chnh
ca doanh nghip. So snh 3 nm ta thy ch s ny
gim dn, chng t kh nng t ch ti chnh ca Anpha
ngy cng tt hn, khng phi i vay nhiu hn.

T s n trn vn ch s hu (D/E) cho bit quan h

So snh D/E ca Anpha vi Ngnh

gia vn huy ng bng i vay v vn ch s hu. So

snh ch s ny trong nm 2012 vi ngnh th thy Anpha
ph thuc ln vo hnh thc huy ng vn bng vay n;
c th hm doanh nghip chu ri ro cao. Tuy nhin,
nhn vo 1 gc khc th n cng c th chng t Anpha

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

bit cch vay n kinh doanh v khai thc li ch ca
hiu qu tit kim thu.

6. Gi tr th trng

Thu nhp trn mi c phiu (EPS) l phn li nhun m cng ty phn b cho mi c phn
thng thng ang c lu hnh trn th trng. EPS c s dng nh mt ch s th hin kh
nng kim li nhun ca doanh nghip. So snh 3 nm, ta thy ngoi tr nm 2011 LNST ca
Anpha l m khin EPS m, cc nm cn li u dng v tng trn vo nm 2012 vi 1103
/CP.
Ch s gi trn thu nhp (P/E) l mt trong nhng
ch s phn tch quan trng trong quyt nh u t

So snh P/E ca Anpha vi Ngnh

chng khon ca nh u t. Thu nhp t c phiu s

c nh hng quyt nh n gi th trng ca c
phiu . Nm 2012, P/E cho thy gi c phiu ca
Anpha hin ti cao hn thu nhp t c phiu 4.08
ln. Tuy nhin, nhn chung cc doanh nghip v ngnh
th P/E ca Anpha tng i thp, iu ny c ngha l
ngi u t d kin tc tng c tc l thp trong
tng lai; c phiu Anpha c ri ro cao nn ngi u

So snh P/B ca Anpha vi Ngnh

t khng tho mn vi t sut vn ho th trng cao;

d on Anpha c tc tng trng thp v s tr c
tc thp.
Ch s th gi trn th gi (P/B) th hin li nhun
m mt ng tin thc to s phi gnh cho P/B ng
k vng. i vi cc nh u t, P/B l cng c gip h
c th tm kim c cc c phiu c gi thp m phn
ln th trng b qua. Nm 2012, P/B ca Anpha bng
SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

0.4 thp hn so vi cc cng ty trong ngnh cng ton
ngnh v nh hn 1. C 2 trng hp s xy ra: hoc l
th trng ang ngh rng gi tr ti sn ca Anpha b
thi phng qu mc hoc l thu nhp trn ti sn ca
Anpha l qu thp. Nu nh iu u tin xy ra, cc
nh u t nn trnh xa cc c phiu ca Anpha bi v
gi tr ti sn ca cng ty s nhanh chng c th
trng iu chnh v ng gi tr tht. Cn nu iu th
hai ng th c kh nng l lnh o mi ca cng ty
hoc cc iu kin kinh doanh mi s em li nhng
trin vng kinh doanh cho Anpha.

7. n by ti chnh

n cn nh ph (DOL) c nh ngha nh l phn trm thay i ca EBIT so vi phn

trm thay i ca DT. Vo nm 2011, do EBIT m v DT dng nn khi DT tng ln 1% th
Anpha s gim l i 15.98%. Vo nm 2012, do EBIT dng v DT gim nn khi DT gim di
1% th Anpha s gim li l 4.93%.
n cn ti chnh (DFL) c nh ngha nh l phn trm thay i ca EPS hay ROE so
vi phn trm thay i ca EBIT. Vo nm 2011, do EBIT m v EPS cng m nn khi EBIT
gim i 1% th cng lm ROE gim i 0.4%. Vo nm 2012, do EBIT dng v EPS cng
dng nn khi EBIT tng ln 1% gip EPS hi phc v tng 1.22%.
n cn tng hp (DTL) cho thy s thay i ca EPS khi DT thay i. Vo nm 2011, DT
tng hn so vi nm 2010 tuy nhin do EBIT m nn EPS m cho nn khi DT tng ln 1% th
EPS s gim l i 6.31%. Ngc li, vo nm 2012, DT li b st gim nhng EBIT li chuyn
t m sang dng v EPS cng chuyn t m sang dng cho thy DT gim i 1% th EPS gim
li i 6.01% .

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 13

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

8. M hnh Z

Ch
tiu
X1

Ni dung

2010

2011

2012

T s TS lu ng/ Tng TS

0.34

0.28

0.40

X2

T s LNGL/ Tng TS

0.02

0.00

0.03

X3

T s LN trc li vay v thu/ Tng TS

0.01

-0.01

0.04

0.78

0.31

0.40

1.91

2.68

2.41

2.89

3.19

3.31

X5

T s gi tr th trng ca Vn CSH/ gi tr s sch

ca tng n
T s DT/ Tng TS

Z= 1.2X1+1.4X2+3.3X3+0.64X4+0.999X5

X4

Qua 2 nm 2011 v 2012 ta thy h s Z ln lt l 3.19 v 3.31 (ln hn 2.99) th cng ty

Anpha vn nm trong vng an ton, cha c nguy c ph sn.

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 14

Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

PHN III: NH GI CHNG KHON ASP
Vi nhng gi nh sau:
Thu sut thu TNDN t =25% (mc thu sut theo qui nh),
g: mc tng trng doanh thu thun d kin 2013 so vi 2012 l 2.93%. Mc tng
trng
g: tng trng k vng l mc tng trng bnh qun ca li nhun thun giai on
2012-2013 l 10%
Li sut u t phi ri ro: Krf =9% l li sut trung hn ca tri phiu chnh ph (5
nm) pht hnh 2013
Li sut bnh qun th trng : Km = 12% (Thng tin hot ng Ngn hng trong
tun ca NN VN 01/04/2013).
H s b-ta (b) ngnh Du kh l 1.29 (tham kho ti
http://www.cophieu68.com/snapshot.php?id=%5Edaukhi)
Chi ph s dng n sau thu Kd = 18% x (1-25%)=13.50% (theo bo co ca Ngn
hng Nh nc pht hnh ngy 01/01/2013).
1. Theo phng php P/E
y l phng php nh gi chng khon ph bin nht, theo gi chng khon s
ph thuc vo 2 yu t: EPS ca cng ty v P/E trung bnh ca ngnh.
Gi chng khon = EPS d kin x P/E TB

M
CK

Tn cng ty

P/E

EPS

ROA

ROE

Beta

ASP

Cng ty CP Tp on Du kh An
Pha

3.9

1,156

3%

11%

1.08

DPM

Tng cng ty Phn bn v Ha

cht Du kh - CTCP

5.7

7996

31%

36%

1.18

PIV

Cng ty CP u t v Thm nh
gi Du kh PIV

-5.6

-427

-3%

-5%

-0.07

PLC

Cng ty CP Ha du Petrolimex

4.8

3,364

6%

17%

1.18

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

PPE

Cng ty CP T vn in lc Du
kh Vit Nam

-1.1

-2,374

-15%

-25%

-0.04

PVC

Tng cng ty CP Dung dch

khoan v Ha phm Du kh

4.1

3,081

13%

31%

1.59

PVD

Tng cng ty CP Khoan v Dch

v khoan du kh

6.6

6,272

8%

22%

1.2

PVE

Cng ty CP T vn u t v
Thit k du kh

8.7

792

2%

5%

1.19

PVS

Tng cng ty CP Dch v K

thut Du kh Vit Nam

3.9

3,648

6%

20%

0.92

P/E trung bnh ngnh 2012 l 8.6, vi t l tng trng ca li rng g = 10%, EPS d
kin 2013 s bng
EPS 2013= 1,102 x (1+10%) = 1,213 ng
Gi c phiu ASP d kin 2013 l P = 10,433 ng

2. Theo phng php nh gi trn gi tr TS rng

Trong Gi tr ti sn rng = Tng ti sn Tng n phi tr
Gi chng khon d kin nm 2013 c tnh bng cch ly gi c phiu nm 2012 theo
phng php nh gi ti sn rng nhn vi mc tng trng k vng g= 10%

STT

Ni dung

2012

Tng ti sn (A)

860,751,668,491

N phi tr (TD)

588,319,168,305

Gi tr ti sn rng:
(3)=(2)-(1)

272,432,500,186

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

4

S c phiu thng ang lu

hnh

Gi chng khon nm 2012

(5)=(3)/(4)

11,933

Gi chng khon d kin

nm 2013

11,933

22,829,996

3. Theo phng php chit khu dng thu nhp FCFF

Gi c phiu c xc nh trn nguyn tc ly gi tr dng ngn lu t do (FCFF1)
chia cho s c phiu thng ang lu hnh
=
Trong :

FCFF1 TD
n

FCFF1: Gi tr ti sn hot ng ca cng ty

n: s c phiu thng ang lu hnh
TD: tng n phi tr d kin 2013

a) Sut sinh li ca vn (ROC)

EBIT2012 X (1 t)
Ve + Vd
Trong :
EBIT2012: Thu nhp trc li vay v thu
Ve: Gi tr s sch vn ch s hu
Vd: Gi tr s sch n vay
Thay EBIT2012 = 29,419,237,612
=

Ve2012 = 255,445,337,545
Vd2012 = 408,049,500,741
Suy ra ROC = 3.33%

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

a) Ngn lu t do k vng 2013 (FCFF):
FCFF = EBIT2012 x (1-t) x [(1+g) - T l ti u t k vng)]
Vi t l ti u t k vng 2013 l
ROC
=
g
Thay ROC = 3.33% v g =0.29% suy ra TLTDT = 8.72%
FCFF

= 29,419,237,612 x(1-0.25) x [(1+10%) 8.72%]

= 22,346,735,999
Chi ph s dng vn ch s hu:
Ke = Krf + (Km - Krf ) x b
= 9% + (12% -9%) x 1.29 = 13.5%
a) Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
Ke x Ve + Kd x Vd
=
Ve + Vd
Th s vo ta c
WACC = 13.26%
b) nh gi c phiu ASP 2013
FCFF1 TD2013
n
Vi FCFF1: Gi tr ti sn hot ng ca cng ty c tnh theo cng thc sau
FCFF
1=
WACC
Th s vo ta c:
Tng n bnh qun d on 2013, da trn tng n bnh qun giai on 2000-2012
v nhn vi tc tng doanh thu d kin 2013 (g)
TD2013 = TD bnh qun 2010-2012 x (1+ g) = 455,422,905,241 x 1.29% = 456,743,631,666
=

Nh vy gi c phiu ASP d kin 2013 l: 10,042.74 ng

Kt lun: Theo 3 phng php nh gi c phiu trnh by trn, kt lun Gi c phiu

ACC d kin 2012 nm trong khong [42,348; 48,211] ng/ c phiu.

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

PHN IV: THIT LP DANH MC U T
Mt s gi nh sau:
V xc sut xy ra hin tng kinh t c gi nh nh bn di
Tnh trng kinh t gi nh

Xc sut

Tng trng nhanh

0.3

Bnh thng

0.5

Khng hong kinh t

0.2

Thng tin tnh lch chun v h s bin thin da trn thng k sut sinh li
trn tng ti sn giai on 3 nm 2010-2012.
1. T sut li nhun k vng, phng sai, lch chun v h s bin thin ca
chng khon ASP

K-Sut sinh
li k vng
BQ (Pm x Ki)

d2= Pi x (KmK)2

Xc sut (Pi)

Ki- Sut
sinh li

0.3

35%

10.50%

1.00%

0.30%

0.5

25%

12.50%

0.00%

0.00%

0.2

10%

2.00%

2.25%

0.45%

(Km-K)

25.00%

0.75%

Phng sai: l gi tr trung bnh tnh theo phng php bnh qun gia quyn ca
cc bnh phng ca lch gia gi tr thc t so vi gi tr trung bnh. lch bnh
phng o lng phn tn ca phn phi xc sut.
2=
SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

)2
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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

lch chun ca ASP =

0,38%

- H s bin thin (CV - Coefficient of variation):l thc o ri ro trn mi n v

t sut sinh li k vng. H s bin thin cng cao mc ri ro cng ln.

Cv =

H s bin thin ca ASP: Cv = 1,50%

2. Chn chng khon thit lp danh mc u t
Theo kt qu tm m chng khon tng quan nghch ta tm c m chng khon
nghch IMP: Cng ty CP Dc phm Imexpharm tng quan nghch vi m ACC, h s
tng quan a12 = -0.46
Vi kt qu nh di y:

K-Sut sinh
li k vng
BQ (Pm x Ki)

d2= Pi x (KmK)2

Xc sut (Pi)

Ki- Sut
sinh li

0.3

15%

4.50%

0.18%

0.06%

0.5

10%

5.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.2

6%

1.20%

0.22%

0.04%

(Km-K)

10.70%

0.10%

lch chun ca IMP =0.05%

H s bin thin ca IMP Cv = 0,0048 (hay = 0.48%)

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

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Phn tch v nh gi cng ty CP Tp on du kh Anpha

3. T trng u t, h s hon vn k vng, lch chun v h s bin thin ca b
chng khon ASP & IMP
a) T trng u t ca danh mc: W ASP, WIMP
S dng hm Correl trong excel xc nh h s tng quan hai m chng khon cho
kt qu a12 = -0.46

WASP =

= 92.87%

WIMP = 100% - 91.50% = 7.13%

b) H s hon vn k vng K p ca danh mc:
Kp
= WASP x KASP + WIMP x KIMP
= 92.87% x 25% + 7.13% x 10.70% = 23.98%
c) lch chun p ca danh mc:
=

2 0.46

+ (

= 0.35%

d) H s bin thin Cp ca danh mc:

Cp

= 1.47%

SVTH: Nguyn c Nam m 2 K.21

Page 21