MINGGU KE 13:

ANALISIS EKONOMI PENGEMBANGAN

PRODUK

ELEMENTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

(ULRICH, 2000)

+$

Sales Revenue

Cumulative
Inflow or
Outflow ($)

TIME
Development Cost
Ramp-up Costs
Marketing and
Support Costs

Production Cost

+$
TYPICAL CASH FLOWS FOR A SUCCESFUL NEW PRODUCT

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 2

WHEN SHOULD ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BE PERFORMED?

(ULRICH, 2000)

1.

GO/NO-GO MILESTONES

2.

OPERATIONAL DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT DECISIONS

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 3

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS PROCESS

(ULRICH, 2000)

1.

BUILD A BASE CASE FINANCIAL MODEL

2.

PERFORM A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

3.

USE THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO UNDERSTAND TRADE-OFFS

4.

CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITIVE FACTORS ON PROJECT

SUCCESS

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 4

TAHAP 1 : BUILD A BASE-CASE FINANCIAL MODEL

1.

ESTIMATE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CASH INFLOWS AND

OUTFLOWS

2.

COMPUTE THE NET PRESENT VALUE OF THE CASH FLOWS

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 5

TAHAP 2 : PERFORM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

INTERNAL FACTORS :

EXTERNAL FACTORS :

Development Expense
Investigation cost
Development cost
Development Speed
Investigation time
Development time
Production Cost
Product Performance

Product Price
Sales Volume
Competitive Environment

PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT

Net Present Value

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 6

TAHAP 3 : USE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO UNDERSTAND PROJECT

TRADE-OFFS

PRODUCT
COST

DEVELOPMENT
TIME

DEVELOPMENT
COST

PRODUCT
PERFORMANCE

POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN INTERNALLY DRIVEN FACTORS

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 7

LIMITATION OF QUATITATIVE ANALYSIS

1.

IT FOCUSES ONLY ON MEASURABLE QUANTITIES

2.

IT DEPENDS ON VALIDITY OF ASSUMPTIONS AND DATA

3.

BUREAUCRACY REDUCES PRODUCTIVITY

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 8

LANGKAH 4 : CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITATIVE

FACTORS ON PROJECT SUCCESS (1)

PROJECT
FIRM
MARKET

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

THE BROADER CONTEXT OF A DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 9

LANGKAH 4 : CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITATIVE

FACTORS ON PROJECT SUCCESS (2)
1.

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE FIRM AS A WHOLE

* EKSTERNALITIES
* STRATEGIC FIT

2.

INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MARKET

3.

COMPETITORS
CUSTOMERS
SUPPLIERS

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT

* MAJOR ECONOMIC SHIFTS
* GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
* SOCIAL TRENDS

PENDAHULUAN SPP, 10