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P O L L I N G M E M O R A N D UM

TO:

HEATHER HIGGINS AND BILL PASCOE

FROM:

WPA OPINION RESEARCH

SUBJECT:

EARLY VOTING IN LOUISIANA SUGGESTS DECREASED SUPPORT FOR LANDRIEU

DATE:

DECEMBER 1, 2014

After the completion of early voting for the December 6th runoff election in Louisiana,
it appears that the base of support for Mary Landrieu has decreased since the
primary. The following memo compares the early vote from the November 4th primary
with the early vote for the upcoming December 6th runoff.

Early Voting Results

Early voting for Democrats is down five points from the primary while Republican
early voting is up five points.
Democrats comprised a majority of the vote for early voting in the primary but failed
to make a majority for early voting in the runoff.

Republican
Other
Democrat

Runoff

34%
14%
53%

39%
13%
48%

African American early voting is down four points from the primary.
African Americans only make up 28% of the early vote for the upcoming runoff.

White
African American

Primary

Primary

Runoff

65%
32%

70%
28%

Overall early voting is down 10% from the primary.

In Orleans Parish, the early vote is down 25% from the primary.
Runoff early voting compared to
Primary early voting

Overall
Orleans
St. Tammany

-10%
-25%
+6%

Conclusion
Based on the early voting results it appears that Mary Landrieus base of support has
declined since the primary. Orleans Parish gave Landrieu 83% of the vote share for the
primary but early voting turnout is down 25% from the primary. African American early voting
declined 4 points from the primary and now African Americans fail to make up 30% of the
early vote. Democratic turnout also declined five points from the primary early vote.
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