Spreadsheet Modeling

& Decision Analysis

A Practical Introduction to
Management Science
5th edition

Cliff T. Ragsdale

Chapter 13
Queuing Theory

Introduction to Queuing Theory

It is estimated that Americans spend a total of 37
billion hours a year waiting in lines.
Places we wait in line...
- stores
- hotels
- post offices
- banks
- traffic lights
- restaurants
- airports
- theme parks
- on the phone
Waiting lines do not always contain people...
- returned videos
- subassemblies in a manufacturing plant
- electronic message on the Internet
Queuing theory deals with the analysis and
management of waiting lines.

The Purpose of Queuing Models

Queuing models are used to:
describe the behavior of queuing systems
determine the level of service to provide
evaluate alternate configurations for providing
service

Queuing Costs
$

Total Cost

Cost of providing service

Cost of customer dissatisfaction

Service Level

Common Queuing System Configurations

Customer
Arrives

Customer
Arrives

...
Waiting Line

...
Waiting Line

...
Waiting Line

Customer
Arrives

Server

Customer
Leaves

Server 1

Customer
Leaves

Server 2

Customer
Leaves

Server 3

Customer
Leaves

Server 1

Customer
Leaves

Server 2

Customer
Leaves

...
Waiting Line

...
Waiting Line

Server 3

Customer
Leaves

Characteristics of Queuing Systems:

The Arrival Process
Arrival rate - the manner in which customers
arrive at the system for service.
Arrivals are often described by a Poisson random
variable:

x e
P( x )
, for x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
where is the arrival rate (e.g., calls arrive at a
rate of =5 per hour)
See file Fig13-3.xls

Characteristics of Queuing Systems:

The Service Process
Service time - the amount of time a customer
spends receiving service (not including time in
the queue).
Service times are often described by an
Exponential random variable:
t2

P(t1 T t2 ) e x dx e ut1 e t2 , for t1 t2

t1

where is the service rate (e.g., calls can be

serviced at a rate of =7 per hour)
The average service time is 1/.
See file Fig13-4.xls

Comments
If arrivals follow a Poisson distribution with mean ,
interarrival times follow an Exponential distribution
with mean 1/.
Example
Assume calls arrive according to a Poisson
distribution with mean =5 per hour.
Interarrivals follow an exponential distribution
with mean 1/5 = 0.2 per hour.
On average, calls arrive every 0.2 hours or
every 12 minutes.
The exponential distribution exhibits the Markovian
(memoryless) property.

Kendall Notation
Queuing systems are described by 3 parameters:
1/2/3
Parameter 1
M = Markovian interarrival times
D = Deterministic interarrival times

Parameter 2
M = Markovian service times
G = General service times
D = Deterministic service times

Parameter 3
A number Indicating the number of servers.

Examples,
M/M/3

D/G/4

M/G/2

Operating Characteristics
Typical operating characteristics of interest include:
U - Utilization factor, % of time that all servers are busy.
P0 - Prob. that there are no zero units in the system.
Lq - Avg number of units in line waiting for service.
L - Avg number of units in the system (in line & being
served).
Wq - Avg time a unit spends in line waiting for service.
W - Avg time a unit spends in the system (in line & being
served).
Pw - Prob. that an arriving unit has to wait for service.
Pn - Prob. of n units in the system.

Key Operating Characteristics

of the M/M/1 Model
1
W

L W
1
Wq W

Lq Wq

The Q.xls Queuing Template

Formulas for the operating characteristics of a
number of queuing models have been derived
analytically.
An Excel template called Q.xls implements the
formulas for several common types of models.
Q.xls was created by Professor David Ashley
of the Univ. of Missouri at Kansas City.

The M/M/s Model

Assumptions:

There are s servers.

Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution and occur
at an average rate of per time period.
Each server provides service at an average
rate of per time period, and actual service
times follow an exponential distribution.
Arrivals wait in a single FIFO queue and are
serviced by the first available server.
< s.

An M/M/s Example: Bitway Computers

The customer support hotline for Bitway Computers is currently
staffed by a single technician.
Calls arrive randomly at a rate of 5 per hour and follow a
Poisson distribution.
The technician services calls at an average rate of 7 per hour,
but the actual time required to handle a call follows an
exponential distribution.
Bitways president, Rod Taylor, has received numerous
complaints from customers about the length of time they must
wait on hold for service when calling the hotline.
Rod wants to determine the average length of time customers
currently wait before the technician answers their calls.
If the average waiting time is more than 5 minutes, he wants to
determine how many technicians would be required to reduce
the average waiting time to 2 minutes or less.

Implementing the Model

See file Q.xls

Summary of Results: Bitway Computers

Arrival rate
Service rate
Number of servers
Utilization
P(0), probability that the system is empty
Lq, expected queue length
L, expected number in system
Wq, expected time in queue
W, expected total time in system
Probability that a customer waits

5
7
1

5
7
2

71.43%
0.2857
1.7857
2.5000
0.3571
0.5000
0.7143

35.71%
0.4737
0.1044
0.8187
0.0209
0.1637
0.1880

The M/M/s Model With

Finite Queue Length
In some problems, the amount of waiting area is limited.
Example,
Suppose Bitways telephone system can keep a maximum of 5
calls on hold at any point in time.
If a new call is made to the hotline when five calls are already in
the queue, the new call receives a busy signal.
One way to reduce the number of calls encountering busy signals
is to increase the number of calls that can be put on hold.
If a call is answered only to be put on hold for a long time, the
caller might find this more annoying than receiving a busy signal.
Rod wants to investigate what effect adding a second technician to
answer hotline calls has on:
the number of calls receiving busy signals
the average time callers must wait before receiving service.

Implementing the Model

See file Q.xls

Summary of Results:
Bitway Computers With Finite Queue
Arrival rate
Service rate
Number of servers
Maximum queue length
Utilization
P(0), probability that the system is empty
Lq, expected queue length
L, expected number in system
Wq, expected time in queue
W, expected total time in system
Probability that a customer waits
Probability that a customer balks

5
7
1
5

5
7
2
5

68.43%
0.3157
1.0820
1.7664
0.2259
0.3687
0.6843
0.0419

35.69%
0.4739
0.1019
0.8157
0.0204
0.1633
0.1877
0.0007

The M/M/s Model With Finite Population

Assumptions:
There are s servers.
There are N potential customers in the arrival
population.
The arrival pattern of each customer follows a
Poisson distribution with a mean arrival rate of
per time period.
Each server provides service at an average rate
of per time period, and actual service times
follow an exponential distribution.
Arrivals wait in a single FIFO queue and are
serviced by the first available server.

M/M/s With Finite Population Example:

The Miller Manufacturing Company
Miller Manufacturing owns 10 identical machines that
produce colored nylon thread for the textile industry.
Machine breakdowns follow a Poisson distribution with an
average of 0.01 breakdowns per operating hour per
machine.
The company loses $100 each hour a machine is down.
The company employs one technician to fix these
machines.
Service times to repair the machines are exponentially
distributed with an avg of 8 hours per repair. (So service is
performed at a rate of 1/8 machines per hour.)
Management wants to analyze the impact of adding another
service technician on the average time to fix a machine.
Service technicians are paid $20 per hour.

Implementing the Model

See file Q.xls

Summary of Results:
Miller Manufacturing
Arrival rate
Service rate
Number of servers
Population size

0.01
0.125
1
10

0.01
0.125
2
10

0.01
0.125
3
10

Utilization
P(0), probability that the system is empty
Lq, expected queue length
L, expected number in system
Wq, expected time in queue
W, expected total time in system
Probability that a customer waits

67.80%
0.3220
0.8463
1.5244
9.9856
17.986
0.6780

36.76%
0.4517
0.0761
0.8112
0.8282
8.8282
0.1869

24.67%
0.4623
0.0074
0.7476
0.0799
8.0799
0.0347

Hourly cost of service technicians

Hourly cost of inoperable machines
Total hourly costs

$20.00
$152.44
$172.44

$40.00
$81.12
$121.12

$60.00
$74.76
$134.76

The M/G/1 Model

Not all service times can be modeled accurately
using the Exponential distribution.
Examples:
Changing oil in a car
Getting an eye exam
Getting a hair cut

M/G/1 Model Assumptions:

Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution with mean .
Service times follow any distribution with mean
and standard deviation s.
There is a single server.

An M/G/1 Example: Zippy Lube

Zippy-Lube is a drive-through automotive oil change business
that operates 10 hours a day, 6 days a week.
The profit margin on an oil change at Zippy-Lube is $15.
Cars arrive at the Zippy-Lube oil change center following a
Poisson distribution at an average rate of 3.5 cars per hour.
The average service time per car is 15 minutes (or 0.25 hours)
with a standard deviation of 2 minutes (or 0.0333 hours).
A new automated oil dispensing device costs $5,000.
The manufacturer's representative claims this device will reduce
the average service time by 3 minutes per car. (Currently,
employees manually open and pour individual cans of oil.)
The owner wants to analyze the impact the new automated
device would have on his business and determine the pay back
period for this device.

Implementing the Model

See file Q.xls

Summary of Results: Zippy Lube

Arrival rate
Average service TIME
Standard dev. of service time

3.5
0.25
0.0333

3.5
0.2
0.0333

4.371
0.2
0.333

Utilization
P(0), probability that the system is empty
Lq, expected queue length
L, expected number in system
Wq, expected time in queue
W, expected total time in system

87.5%
0.1250
3.1168
3.9918
0.8905
1.1405

70.0% 87.41%
0.3000 0.1259
0.8393 3.1198
1.5393 3.9939
0.2398 0.7138
0.4398 0.9138

Payback Period Calculation

Increase in:
Arrivals per hour
Profit per hour
Profit per day
Profit per week

0.871
$13.06
$130.61
$783.63

Cost of Machine

$5,000

Payback Period

6.381 weeks

The M/D/1 Model

Service times may not be random in some queuing
systems.
Examples
In manufacturing, the time to machine an item
might be exactly 10 seconds per piece.
An automatic car wash might spend exactly the
same amount of time on each car it services.

The M/D/1 model can be used in these types of

situations where the service times are deterministic
(not random).
The results for an M/D/1 model can be obtained
using the M/G/1 model by setting the standard
deviation of the service time to 0 ( s= 0).

Simulating Queues
The queuing formulas used in Q.xls describe
the steady-state operations of the various
queuing systems.
Simulation is often used to analyze more
complex queuing systems.
See file Fig13-21.xls

End of Chapter 13