W HERE A RE T HEY ?

WHYIHOPETHESEARCHFOREXTRATERRESTRIALLIFE
FINDSNOTHING

NickBostrom
FutureofHumanityInstitute
FacultyofPhilosophy&JamesMartin21stCenturySchool
OxfordUniversity
www.nickbostrom.com
[PublishedintheMITTechnologyReview,May/Juneissue(2008):pp.7277]

WhenwaterwasdiscoveredonMars,peoplegotveryexcited.Wherethereiswater,
theremaybelife.Scientistsareplanningnewmissionstostudytheplanetupclose.
NASAsnextMarsroverisscheduledtoarrivein2010.Inthedecadefollowing,aMars
SampleReturnmissionmightbelaunched,whichwoulduseroboticsystemstocollect
samplesofMartianrocks,soils,andatmosphere,andreturnthemtoEarth.Wecould
thenanalyzethesampletoseeifitcontainsanytracesoflife,whetherextinctorstill
active.Suchadiscoverywouldbeoftremendousscientificsignificance.Whatcouldbe
morefascinatingthandiscoveringlifethathadevolvedentirelyindependentlyoflife
hereonEarth?Manypeoplewouldalsofindithearteningtolearnthatwearenot
entirelyaloneinthisvastcoldcosmos.

ButIhopethatourMarsprobeswilldiscovernothing.Itwouldbegoodnewsifwefind
Marstobecompletelysterile.Deadrocksandlifelesssandswouldliftmyspirit.

Conversely,ifwediscoveredtracesofsomesimpleextinctlifeformsomebacteria,
somealgaeitwouldbebadnews.Ifwefoundfossilsofsomethingmoreadvanced,
perhapssomethinglookingliketheremnantsofatrilobiteoreventheskeletonofasmall
mammal,itwouldbeverybadnews.Themorecomplexthelifewefound,themore
depressingthenewsofitsexistencewouldbe.Scientificallyinteresting,certainly,buta
badomenforthefutureofthehumanrace.

HowdoIarriveatthisconclusion?Ibeginbyreflectingonawellknownfact.UFO
spotters,Raeliancultists,andselfcertifiedalienabducteesnotwithstanding,humans
have,todate,seennosignofanyextraterrestrialintelligentcivilization.Wehavenot
receivedanyvisitorsfromspace,norhaveourradiotelescopesdetectedanysignals
transmittedbyanyextraterrestrialcivilization.TheSearchforExtraTerrestrial
IntelligentLife(SETI)hasbeengoingfornearlyfiftyyears,employingincreasingly
powerfultelescopesanddataminingtechniques,andhassofarconsistently

corroboratedthenullhypothesis.Asbestwehavebeenabletodetermine,thenightsky
isemptyandsilentthequestionWherearethey?thusbeingatleastaspertinent
todayasitwaswhenEnricoFermifirstposeditduringalunchdiscussionwithsomeof
hisphysicistcolleaguesbackin1950.

Hereisanotherfact:Thereareontheorderof100billionstarsinourgalaxyalone,and
theobservableuniversecontainsontheorderof100billiongalaxies.Inthelastcoupleof
decades,wehavelearntthatmanyofthesestarshaveplanetscirclingaroundthem.By
now,severalhundredexoplanetswehavediscovered.Mostofthesearegigantic,but
thisisduetoaselectioneffect:Itisverydifficulttodetectsmallerexoplanetswith
currentobservationmethods.(Inmostcases,theplanetscannotbedirectlyobserved.
Theirexistenceisinferredfromtheirgravitationalinfluenceontheirparentsun,which
wobblesslightlywhenpulledtowardsalargeorbitingplanet;oralternativelybyaslight
fluctuationintheirsunsperceivedluminositywhichoccurswhenitispartiallyeclipsed
bytheexoplanet.)Wehaveeveryreasontobelievethattheobservableuniversecontains
vastnumbersofsolarsystems,includingmanythathaveplanetsthatareEarthlikeat
leastinthesenseofhavingamassandtemperaturesimilartothoseofourownorb.We
alsoknowthatmanyofthesesolarsystemsaremucholderthanours.

FromthesetwofactsitfollowsthatthereexistsaGreatFilter. 1 TheGreatFiltercanbe
thoughtofasaprobabilitybarrier.Itconsistsofexistoneofmorehighlyimprobable
evolutionarytransitionsorstepswhoseoccurrenceisrequiredinorderforanEarthlike
planettoproduceanintelligentcivilizationofatypethatwouldbevisibletouswithour
currentobservationtechnology.Youstartwithbillionsandbillionsofpotential
germinationpointsforlife,andyouendupwithasumtotalofzeroextraterrestrial
civilizationsthatwecanobserve.TheGreatFiltermustthereforebepowerfulenough
whichistosay,thecriticalstepsmustbeimprobableenoughthatevenwithmany
billionsrollsofthedice,oneendsupwithnothing:noaliens,nospacecraft,nosignals,at
leastnonethatwecandetectinourneckofthewoods.

Now,animportantquestionforusis,justwheremightthisGreatFilterbelocated?
Therearetwobasicpossibilities:Itmightbebehindus,somewhereinourdistantpast.
Oritmightbeaheadofus,somewhereinthemillenniaordecadestocome.Letus
ponderthesepossibilitiesinturn.

Considerfirstthepossibilitythatthefilterisinourpast.Thiswouldmeanthatthereis
someextremelyimprobablestepinthesequenceofeventswherebyanEarthlikeplanet
givesrisetoanintelligentlifeformcomparableinitstechnologicalsophisticationtoour

IborrowthistermfromRobinHansonsTheGreatFilterAreWeAlmostPastIt?
(http://hanson.gmu.edu/greatfilter.html),apaperwhichpresentsanargumentsimilartotheone
expoundedhere.
1

contemporaryhumancivilization.Somepeopleseemtotakeitforgrantedthatevolution
ofintelligentlifeonthisplanetwasstraightforwardlengthy,yes,complex,sure,yet
ultimatelyinevitableornearlyso.CarlSaganappearstohaveheldthisview;heonce
wrotethattheoriginoflifemustbeahighlyprobablecircumstance;assoonas
2

conditionspermit,upitpops! Butthisviewmightwellbecompletelymistaken.There
isatanyratehardlyanyevidencetosupportit.Evolutionarybiology,atthemoment,
doesnotenableustocalculatefromfirstprincipleshowprobableorimprobablethe
evolutionofintelligentlifeonEarthwas.Moreover,ifwelookbackatthehistoryoflife
onthisplanet,wecanidentifyanumberofevolutionarytransitionseachoneofwhichis
aplausiblecandidateGreatFilter.

Forexample,perhapsitisvery,veryimprobablethatevensimpleselfreplicatorsshould
emergeonanygivenEarthlikeplanet.Attemptstocreatelifeinthelaboratoryby
mixingwaterandgasesbelievedtohaveexistedintheearlyatmosphereonEarthhave
failedtogetmuchbeyondthesynthesisofafewsimpleaminoacids.Noinstanceof
abiogenesishaseverbeenobserved.

Theoldestconfirmedmicrofossilsdatefromapproximately3,500millionyearsago,and
thereistentativeevidencethatlifemighthaveexistedafewhundredmillionyearsprior
tothatdate,butnoevidenceoflifebefore3,800millionyearsago.Lifemightwellhave
arisenconsiderablyearlierthanthatwithoutleavinganytraces.Thereareveryfew
preservedrockformationsthisoldandsuchashavesurvivedhaveundergonemajor
remoldingovertheeons.Nevertheless,thereisaperiodlastingseveralhundredsof
millionsofyearsbetweentheformationofEarthandthefirstknownlife.Theevidence
isthusconsistentwiththehypothesisthattheemergenceofliferequiredanextremely
improbablesetofcoincidences,andthatittookhundredsofmillionsofyearsoftrial
anderror,ofmoleculesandsurfacestructuresrandomlyinteracting,beforesomething
capableofselfreplicationhappenedtoappearbyastrokeofastronomicalluck.For
aughtweknow,thisfirstcriticalstepcouldbeaGreatFilter.

Sincewecannotrerunthehistoryoflifemultipletimestoobtainrigorousstatistics,itis
difficultdetermineconclusivelythedifficultyofanygivenevolutionarydevelopment.
Thereare,however,somecriteriathatwecanusetoidentifyevolutionarytransitionsthat
areatleastgoodcandidatesforbeingaGreatFilter,i.e.thatarebothextremely
improbableandpracticallynecessaryfortheeventualemergenceofintelligent
technologicalcivilization.Onecriterionisthatthetransitionshouldhaveoccurredonly
once.Flight,sight,photosynthesis,andlimbshaveallevolvedseveraltimeshereon
Earth,andarethusruledout.Anotherindicationthatanevolutionarystepwasvery
improbableisthatittookaverylongtimeforittooccurevenafteritsprerequisiteswere

Sagan,C.(1995).Theabundanceoflifebearingplanets.BioastronomyNews7(4):
14.
2

inplace.Alongdelaysuggeststhatavastlymanyrandomrecombinationshadtobe
triedbeforeonewasfoundthatworked.Perhapsseveralimprobablemutationshadto
occurallatonceinordertoleapfromonelocalfitnesspeaktoanother:themutations
mightindividuallybedeleteriousandonlyfitnessenhancingwhentheyoccurtogether.
(TheevolutionofHomosapiensfromoneofourrecenthominidancestors,suchasHomo
erectus,happenedratherquicklyongeologicaltimescales,sothisstepwouldbea
relativelyweakcandidateforaGreatFilter.)

Theoriginalemergenceoflifeappearstomeetthesetwocriteria.Asfarasweknow,it
mighthaveoccurredonlyonceanditmighthavetakenhundredsofmillionsofyearsfor
ittohappenevenaftertheplanethadcooleddownsufficientlytoenableawiderangeof
organicmoleculestobestable.Laterevolutionaryhistoryoffersadditionalcandidates
fortheGreatFilter.Forexample,ittooksome1.8billionyearsforprokaryotes(themost
basictypeofsinglecellorganism)toevolveintoeukaryotes(amorecomplexkindofcell
withamembraneenclosednucleus).1.8billionyearsisalongtime,andasfaraswe
knoweukaryotesevolvedonlyonce,makingthistransitionanexcellentpossibleGreat
Filter.Otherstrongcandidatesincludetheriseofmulticellularorganismsandsexual
reproduction.

SoonepossibilityisthattheGreatFilterisbehindus.Thiswouldexplaintheabsenceof
observablealiens.Why?Becauseiftheriseofintelligentlifeonanyoneplanetis
sufficientlyimprobable,thenitfollowsthatwearemostlikelytheonlysuchcivilization
inourgalaxyorevenintheentireobservableuniverse.(Theobservableuniverse
containsapproximately10 22stars.Theuniversemightwellextendinfinitelyfarbeyond
partthatisobservablebyus,andmaycontaininfinitelymanystars.Ifso,thenitis
virtuallycertainthatthereexistsaninfinitenumberofintelligentextraterrestrialspecies,
nomatterhowimprobabletheirevolutiononanygivenplanet.However,cosmological
theoryimpliesthat,duetotheexpansionoftheuniverse,anylifeoutsidetheobservable
universeisandwillforeverremaincausallydisconnectedfromus:itcannevervisitus,
communicatewithus,orbeseenbyusorourdescendants.)

TheotherpossibilityisthattheGreatFilterisafterus,inourfuture.Thiswouldmean
thatthereissomegreatimprobabilitythatpreventsalmostalltechnologicalcivilizations
atourcurrenthumanstageofdevelopmentfromprogressingtothepointwherethey
engageinlargescalespacecolonizationandmaketheirpresenceknowntoother
technologicalcivilizations.Forexample,itmightbethatanysufficientlytechnologically
advancedcivilizationdiscoverssometechnologyperhapssomeverypowerful
weaponstechnologythatcausesitsextinction.

Iwillreturntothisscenarioshortly,butfirstIshallsayafewwordsaboutanother
theoreticalpossibility:thattheextraterrestrialsareoutthere,inabundancebuthidden
fromourview.Ithinkthisisunlikely,becauseifextraterrestrialsdoexistinany

numbers,itsreasonabletothinkatleastonespecieswouldhavealreadyexpanded
throughoutthegalaxy,orbeyond.Yetwehavemetnoone.

Variousschemeshavebeenproposedforhowanintelligentspeciesmightcolonize
space.Theymightsendoutmannedspaceships,whichwouldestablishcoloniesand
terraformnewplanets,beginningwithworldsintheirownsolarsystembefore
movingontomoredistantdestinations.Butmuchmorelikely,inmyview,wouldbe
colonizationbymeansofsocalledvonNeumannprobes,namedaftertheHungarian
bornprodigyJohnvonNeumann,whoincludedamonghismanymathematicaland
scientificachievementsthedevelopmentoftheconceptofauniversalconstructor.Avon
Neumannprobewouldbeanunmannedselfreplicatingspacecraft,controlledby
artificialintelligence,capableofinterstellartravel.Aprobewouldlandonaplanet(ora
moonorasteroid),whereitwouldminerawmaterialstocreatemultiplereplicasofitself,
perhapsusingadvancedformsofnanotechnology.Thesereplicaswouldthenbe
launchedinvariousdirections,thussettinginmotionamultiplyingcolonizationwave. 3
Ourgalaxyisabout100,000lightyearsacross.Ifaprobewerecapableoftravellingat
onetenthofthespeedoflight,everyplanetinthegalaxycouldthusbecolonizedwithin
acoupleofmillionyears(allowingsometimeforthebootstrappingprocessthatneedsto
takeplacebetweenaprobeslandingonaresourcesite,settingupthenecessary
infrastructure,andproducingdaughterprobes).Iftravelspeedwerelimitedto1%of
lightspeed,colonizationmighttaketwentymillionyearsinstead.Theexactnumbersdo
notmattermuchbecausetheyareatanyrateveryshortcomparedtotheastronomical
timescalesinvolvedintheevolutionofintelligentlifefromscratch(billionsofyears).

IfbuildingavonNeumannprobeseemslikeaverydifficultthingtodowell,surelyit
is,butwearenottalkingaboutaproposalforsomethingthatNASAortheEuropean
SpaceAgencyshouldgettoworkontoday.Rather,weareconsideringwhatwouldbe
accomplishwithsomefutureveryadvancedtechnology.Weourselvesmightbuild
Neumannprobesindecades,centuries,ormillenniaintervalsthataremereblips
comparedtothelifespanofaplanet.Consideringthatspacetravelwassciencefictiona
merehalfcenturyago,weshould,Ithink,beextremelyreluctanttoproclaimsomething
forevertechnologicallyinfeasibleunlessitconflictswithsomehardphysicalconstraint.
Ourearlyspaceprobesarealreadyoutthere:Voyager1,forexample,isnowbeyondour
solarsystem.

Evenifanadvancedtechnologicalcivilizationcouldspreadthroughoutthegalaxyina
relativelyshortperiodoftime(andthereafterspreadtoneighboringgalaxies),onemight
stillwonderwhetheritwouldopttodoso.Perhapsitwouldratherchoosetostayat
homeandliveinharmonywithnature.However,thereareanumberofconsiderations
thatmakethisalessplausibleexplanationofthegreatsilence.First,weobservethatlife

ThisscenariowasdevelopedbyFrankTiplerin1981.

hereonEarthmanifestsaverystrongtendencytospreadwhereveritcan.Onourplanet,
lifehasspreadtoeverynookandcrannythatcansustainit:East,West,North,and
South;land,water,andair;desert,tropic,andarcticice;undergroundrocks,
hydrothermalvents,andradioactivewastedumps;thereareevenlivingbeingsinside
thebodiesofotherlivingbeings.Thisempiricalfindingisofcourseentirelyconsonant
withwhatonewouldexpectonthebasisofelementaryevolutionarytheory.Second,if
weconsiderourownspeciesinparticular,wealsofindthatithasspreadtoeverypartof
theplanet,andweevenhaveevenestablishedapresenceinspace,atvastexpense,with
theinternationalspacestation.Third,thereisanobviousreasonforanadvanced
civilizationthathasthetechnologytogointospacerelativelycheaplytodoso:namely,
thatswheremostoftheresourcesare.Land,minerals,energy,negentropy,matter:all
abundantoutthereyetlimitedonanyonehomeplanet.Theseresourcescouldbeused
tosupportagrowingpopulationandtoconstructgianttemplesorsupercomputersor
whateverstructuresacivilizationvalues.Fourth,evenifsomeadvancedcivilization
werenonexpansionarytobeginwith,itmightchangeitsmindafterahundredyearsor
fiftythousandyearsadelaytooshorttomatter.Fifth,evenifsomeadvanced
civilizationchosetoremainnonexpansionistforever,itwouldstillnotmakeany
differenceiftherewereatleastoneothercivilizationouttherethatatsomepointopted
tolaunchacolonizationprocess:thatexpansionarycivilizationwouldthenbetheone
whoseprobes,colonies,ordescendantswouldfillthegalaxy.Ittakesbutonematchto
startafire;onlyoneexpansionistcivilizationtolaunchthecolonizationoftheuniverse.

Forallthesereasonsitseemsunlikelythatthegalaxyisteemingwithintelligentlifeand
thatthereasonwehaventseenanyofthemisthattheyallconfinethemselvestotheir
homeplanets.Now,itispossibletoconcoctscenariosinwhichtheuniverseisswarming
withadvancedcivilizationseveryoneofwhichchoosestokeepitselfwellhiddenfrom
ourview.Maybethereisasecretsocietyofadvancedcivilizationsthatknowaboutus
buthavedecidednottocontactusuntilwerematureenoughtobeadmittedintotheir
club.Perhapstheyreobservingus,likeanimalsinazoo.Idontseehowwecan
conclusivelyruleoutthispossibility.ButIwillsetitasidefortheremainderofthisessay
inordertoconcentratewhattomeappearstobemoreplausibleanswerstoFermis
question.

AdisconcertinghypothesisisthattheGreatFilterconsistsinsomedestructivetendency
commontovirtuallyallsufficientlyadvancedtechnologicalcivilizations.Throughout
history,greatcivilizationsonEarthhaveimplodedtheRomanEmpire,theMayan
civilizationthatonceflourishedinCentralAmerica,andmanyothers.However,the
kindofsocietalcollapsethatmerelydelaystheeventualemergenceofaspacecolonizing
civilizationbyafewhundredorafewthousandyearswouldnothelpexplainwhyno
suchcivilizationhasvisitedusfromanotherplanet.Athousandyearsmayseemalong
timetoanindividual,butinthiscontextitsasneeze.Thereareplanetsthatarebillions
ofyearsolderthanEarth.Anyintelligentspeciesonthoseplanetswouldhavehad

ampletimetorecoverfromrepeatedsocialorecologicalcollapses.Eveniftheyfaileda
thousandtimesbeforetheysucceeded,theycouldstillhavearrivedherehundredsof
millionsofyearsago.

ToconstituteaneffectiveGreatFilter,wehypothesizeaterminalglobalcataclysm:an
existentialcatastrophe.Anexistentialriskisonewhereanadverseoutcomewould
annihilateEarthoriginatingintelligentlifeorpermanentlyanddrasticallycurtailits
potentialforfuturedevelopment.Wecanidentifyanumberofpotentialexistential
risks:nuclearwarfoughtwithstockpilesmuchgreaterthanthosethatexisttoday
(mayberesultingfromfuturearmsraces);ageneticallyengineeredsuperbug;
environmentaldisaster;asteroidimpact;warsorterroristsactcommittedwithpowerful
futureweapons,perhapsbasedonadvancedformsofnanotechnology;superintelligent
generalartificialintelligencewithdestructivegoals;highenergyphysicsexperiments;a
permanentglobalBraveNewWorldliketotalitarianregimeprotectedfromrevolution
bynewsurveillanceandmindcontroltechnologies.Thesearejustsomeoftheexistential
risksthathavebeendiscussedintheliterature,andconsideringthatmanyofthesehave
beenconceptualizedonlyinrecentdecades,itisplausibletoassumethatthereare
furtherexistentialrisksthatwehavenotyetthoughtof.

Thestudyofexistentialrisksisanextremelyimportantalbeitratherneglectedfieldof
inquiry.Butherewemustlimitourselvestomakingjustonepoint.Inorderforsome
existentialrisktoconstituteaplausibleGreatFilter,itisnotsufficientthatwejudgeitto
haveasignificantsubjectiveprobabilityofdestroyinghumanity.Rather,itmustbeofa
kindthatcouldwithsomeplausibilitybepostulatedtodestroyvirtuallyallsufficiently
advancedcivilizations.Forinstance,stochasticnaturaldisasterssuchasasteroidhitsand
supervolcaniceruptionsareunlikelyGreatFiltercandidates,becauseevenifthey
destroyedasignificantnumberofcivilizationswewouldexpectsomecivilizationstoget
luckyandescapedisaster;andsomeofthesecivilizationscouldthengoontocolonize
theuniverse.Perhapsthemostlikelytypeofexistentialrisksthatcouldconstitutea
GreatFilterarethosethatarisefromtechnologicaldiscovery.Itisnotfarfetchedto
supposethattheremightbesomepossibletechnologywhichissuchthat(a)virtuallyall
sufficientlyadvancedcivilizationseventuallydiscoveritand(b)itsdiscoveryleads
almostuniversallytoexistentialdisaster.

SowhereistheGreatFilter?Behindus,ornotbehindus?

IftheGreatFilterisaheadofus,wehavestilltoconfrontit.Ifitistruethatalmostall
intelligentspeciesgoextinctbeforetheymasterthetechnologyforspacecolonization,
thenwemustexpectthatourownspecies,too,willgoextinctbeforereaching
technologicalmaturity,sincewehavenoreasontothinkthatwewillbeanyluckierthan
mostotherspeciesatourstageofdevelopment.IftheGreatFilterisaheadofus,we
mustrelinquishallhopeofevercolonizingthegalaxy;andwemustfearthatour

adventurewillendsoon,oratanyrate,prematurely.Therefore,webetterhopethatthe
GreatFilterisbehindus.

WhathasallthisgottodowithfindinglifeonMars?Considertheimplicationsof
discoveringthatlifehadevolvedindependentlyonMars(orsomeotherplanetinour
solarsystem).Thatdiscoverywouldsuggestthattheemergenceoflifeisnotavery
improbableevent.Ifithappenedindependentlytwicehereinourownbackyard,it
mustsurelyhavehappenedmillionstimesacrossthegalaxy.Thiswouldmeanthatthe
GreatFilterislesslikelytooccurintheearlylifeofplanetsandisthereforemorelikely
stilltocome.

IfwediscoveredsomeverysimplelifeformsonMarsinitssoilorundertheiceatthe
polarcaps,itwouldshowthattheGreatFiltermustexistsomewhereafterthatperiodin
evolution.Thiswouldbedisturbing,butwemightstillhopethattheGreatFilterwas
locatedinourpast.Ifwediscoveredamoreadvancedlifeform,suchassomekindof
multicellularorganism,thatwouldeliminateamuchlargerstretchofpotentiallocations
wheretheGreatFiltercouldbe.Theeffectwouldbetoshifttheprobabilitymore
stronglytothehypothesisthattheGreatFilterisaheadofus,notbehindus.Andifwe
discoveredthefossilsofsomeverycomplexlifeform,suchasofsomevertebratelike
creature,wewouldhavetoconcludethattheprobabilityisverygreatthatthebulkofthe
GreatFilterisaheadofus.Suchadiscoverywouldbeacrushingblow.Itwouldbeby
fartheworstnewseverprintedonanewspapercover.

Yetmostpeoplereadingtheaboutthediscoverywouldbethrilled.Theywouldnot
understandtheimplications.IftheGreatFilterisnotbehindus,itisaheadofus.

SothisiswhyImhopingthatourspaceprobeswilldiscoverdeadrocksandlifeless
sandsonMars,onJupitersmoonEuropa,andeverywhereelseourastronomerslook.It
wouldkeepalivethehopeforagreatfutureforhumanity.

Now,itmightbethoughtanamazingcoincidenceifEarthweretheonlyplanetinthe
galaxyonwhichintelligentlifeevolved.Ifithappenedheretheoneplanetwehave
studiedcloselysurelyonewouldexpectittohavehappenedonalotofotherplanetsin
thegalaxyalso,whichwehavenotyethadthechancetoexamine?Thisobjection,
however,restsonafallacy:Itoverlookswhatisknownasanobservationselection
effect.Whetherintelligentlifeiscommonorrare,everyobserverisguaranteedtofind
themselvesoriginatingfromaplacewhereintelligentlifedid,indeed,arise.Sinceonly
thesuccessesgiverisetoobserverswhocanwonderabouttheirexistence,itwouldbea
mistaketoregardourplanetasarandomlyselectedsamplefromallplanets.(Itwould
beclosertothemarktoregardourplanetasthoughitwerearandomsamplefromthe
subsetofplanetsthatdidengenderintelligentlife:thisbeingacrudeformulationofone

ofthesaneelementsextractablefromthemotleyoreofideasreferredtoastheanthropic
principle.)

Sincethispointconfusesmany,itisworthexpoundingitslightly.Considertwodifferent
hypotheses.Onesaysthattheevolutionofintelligentlifeisfairlyeasyandhappensona
significantfractionofallsuitableplanets.Theotherhypothesissaysthattheevolutionof
intelligentlifeisextremelydifficultandhappensperhapsonlyononeoutofamillion
billionsplanets.Toevaluatetheirplausibilityinlightofyourevidence,youmustask
yourself,WhatdothesehypothesespredictthatIshouldobserve?Ifyouthinkabout
it,itisclearthatbothhypothesespredictthatyoushouldobservethatyourcivilization
originatedinplaceswhereintelligentlifeevolved.Allobserverswillobserveprecisely
that,whethertheevolutionofintelligentlifehappenedonalargeorasmallfractionofall
planets.Anobservationselectioneffectguaranteesthatwhateverplanetwecallours
wasasuccessstory.Andaslongasthetotalnumberofplanetsintheuniverseislarge
enoughtocompensateforthelowprobabilityofanygivenoneofthemgivingriseto
intelligentlife,itisnotasurprisethatafewsuccessstoriesexist.

IfasIhopeisthecasewearetheonlyintelligentspeciesthathaseverevolvedinour
galaxy,andperhapsintheentireobservableuniverse,itdoesnotfollowthatoursurvival
isnotindanger.NothingintheabovereasoningprecludestheGreatFilterfrombeing
locatedbothbehindusandaheadofus.Itmightbothbeextremelyimprobablethat
intelligentlifeshouldariseonanygivenplanet,andveryimprobablethatintelligentlife,
onceevolved,shouldsucceedinbecomingadvancedenoughtocolonizespace.

ButwewouldhavesomegroundsforhopethatallormostoftheGreatFilterisinour
pastifMarsisindeedfoundtobebarren.Inthatcase,wemayhaveasignificantchance
ofonedaygrowingintosomethingalmostunimaginablygreaterthanwearetoday.

Inthisscenario,theentirehistoryofhumankindtodateisamereinstantcomparedto
theeonsofhistorythatliestillbeforeus.Allthetriumphsandtribulationsofthe
millionsofpeoplesthehavewalkedtheEarthsincetheancientcivilizationof
Mesopotamiawouldbelikemerebirthpangsinthedeliveryofakindoflifethathasnt
reallybegunyet.Forsurelyitwouldbetheheightofnaivettothinkthatwiththe
transformativetechnologiesalreadyinsightgenetics,nanotechnologyandsoonand
withthousandsofmillenniastillaheadofustoperfectandapplythesetechnologiesand
othersthatwehaventyetconceivedof,humannatureandthehumanconditionwill
remainunchangedforallfuture.Instead,ifwesurviveandprosper,wewillpresumably
developintosomekindofposthumanexistence.

SothisiswhyIconcludethatthesilenceofthenightskyisgolden,andwhy,inthe
searchforextraterrestriallife,nonewsisgoodnews.Itpromisesapotentiallygreat
futureforhumanity.


NoneofthismeansthatweoughttocancelourplanstohaveacloserlookatMars.Ifthe
redplaneteverharboredlife,wemightaswellfindoutaboutit.Itmightbebadnews,
butitwouldtellussomethingaboutourplaceintheuniverse,ourfuturetechnological
prospects,theexistentialrisksconfrontingus,thepossibilitiesforhumantransformation:
issuesofconsiderableimportance.

Itisimpossibletoknowinadvancewhatinsightsmightbegleanedbyapplyingthekind
ofcarefulandsystematicstudytosuchbigquestionsthatweapplyeverydaytosmaller
andlessconsequentialtechnologicalandscientificproblems.Theremaybesurprising
argumentsandideasouttheremerelywaitingtobediscovered.Someofthesemight
eventurnouttohavepracticalramificationsofsuchimportanceastochangeourwhole
schemeofpriorities.PerhapsthegreatestbenefitfromtheSETIprogramwillresultifit
promptsthinkingabouttheselargermatters.

Theoretically,smartambitiousscholarscouldstartthinkingwithoutwaitingforsuch
prompts.Expensiveinstruments,however,haveawayoflendingscientificstatusand
respectabilitytoafieldofinquiry.Academicsarekeentoputasmuchdistanceas
possiblebetweenthemselvesandthekooksandcranksthatflocktothesebigquestions.
Iflargetelescopes,NASAsatellites,andcomplicatedmathematicaldataanalysisare
involved,itbecomesharderforoutsideobserverstomistaketheworkfortheramblings
ofUFOnutsandothercrackpots.Theremaybenosignalsfromspace,yetthosewith
theirantennastunedtomoreanthropomorphicwavelengthsaresuretopickupabuzzof
socialsignalinginpeoplesattitudestowardsthesearchforextraterrestrialbeings.Such
socialbackgroundnoisemightinfactbeoneofthemainobstaclestointellectualprogress
onmanybigpicturetopics.

NickBostromistheDirectoroftheFutureofHumanityInstituteattheUniversityofOxford.
Hishomepage,withmanyofhispapers,isathttp://www.nickbostrom.com.

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