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Powwhatsonback
RachelEdwards
1.ProblemStatement
Thisproblemisbasedoffofacardgame.Thecardgameinvolvesthreedifferentcards:onewithanXon
bothsides,onewithanOonbothsides,andonewithanXononesideandanOontheother.Forthe
gameyouplaceallthecardsinabagandthendrawonecard.Onlylookatonesideofthecard(youcant
lookattheoppositeside).YourgoalistopredictiftheoppositesideofthecardhasanXoranO.Two
possiblestrategiesofthisgameare:
Predicttheothersidewillshowadifferentmarkthanyouarelookingat.
AlwayspredictthattheothersideofthecardwillbeshowinganX.
Trytofindtheprobabilityofsuccessforeachofthesestrategies.Also,findwhichofthesestrategieswill
haveabetterchanceofbeingsuccessful.Conductanexperimentaltrialandtrytogetanexperimental
estimateoftheprobability.Repeatthegamemultipletimesusingeitherstrategyandrecordthesuccess.
Also,makeatheoreticalmodeltofindthesuccessofthestrategies.Whichstrategyisthebest?
2.Process
ExperimentalEstimates:
Ibeganbyrunningtheexperimentofthetwostrategies.Herearetheresultsofusingstrategy1:
PulledSide
Prediction
Correct(Y,N)
PulledSide
Prediction
Correct(Y,N)
Herearetheresultsofusingstrategy2:
PulledSide
Prediction
Correct(Y,N)
PulledSide
Prediction
Correct(Y,N)
TheoreticalModel:
Strategy1Ifoundthatforthisstrategyonlyoneofthecardswillhavetheoppositesignontheopposite
sidethatyoupull.Thisisbecausetheothertwocardswillshowthesamesignontheoppositeside.
Strategy2ForthisstrategyIsawthatifyoupulloutanOtheresachanceoftheothersidebeinganXor
anO.OrifyoupulloutatXtheresstillanevenchanceoftheothersidebeinganXoranO.
3.Results
ExperimentalEstimates:
Forstrategy1,theexperimentalprobabilityofsuccesswas12timesoutofmy40experiments.Whichisa
successrateof30%.
Forstrategy2,theexperimentalprobabilityofsuccesswas21timesoutofmy40experiments.Whichisa
successrateof52.5%.
TheoreticalResults:
Forstrategy1,thetheoreticalprobabilityofsuccessis1outof3pulls.Whichisasuccessrateof33.3%.
Forstrategy2,thetheoreticalprobabilityofsuccessis2outof4pulls.Whichisasuccessrateof50%.
Overall,theresultsoftheexperimentalandthetheoreticalarealmostthesame.Thishelpsmeconcludethat
strategy1wouldbethemoresuccessfulchoiceofthetwogivenoptions.
4.SelfAssessment
Ibelievethatthisproblem/experimentwasverysuccessfulintermsofcomingtoastrongconclusion.My
workinthisproblemdeservesa9.5/10inmyopinion.Iwasabletofullyunderstandthisproblemand
performmyownprocesstosolveit.TheoneHabitofaMathematicianthatcamethroughinthisproblem
was:StayingOrganized.Ichosethisoneduetohavingtoorganizeallthedataandexperiments.Ialsohad
toorganizedifferentcomponentsofthisproblemintoonethought.