Adoe 1

Michael Adoe
Ngemal Sitepu
Mathematics
11 November 2014
Mathematical Modeling (Real Life Problem)
The Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia, Canada is deemed to have the greatest average
change in tide height in the world. In the table below data is presented from 27 December
2003 using Atlantic Standard Time (AST). The heights were taken at Grindstone Island.
Time
(AST)

00.0
0

01.00 02.00

03.0
0

04.00 05.00

06.0
0

Heigh
t (m)

7.5

10.2

11.8

12.0

10.0

6.3

Time
(AST)

12.0
0

13.00 14.00

15.0
0

16.00 17.00

8.9

18.0
0

07.00 08.00
3.6

1.6

19.00 20.00

09.0
0
0.9

21.0
0

Heigh
6.9
9.7
11.6 12.3 11.6
9.9
7.3
4.5
2.1
0.7
t (m)
Using graphing software, plot the graph of time against height. Describe the result.

10.00 11.00
1.8

4.0

22.00 23.00
0.8

2.4

Adoe 2
After the graph is plotted, the graph shows a pair of curves that aligns to the right. The
graph also shows the time against height. From the graph, it is visible to see that the curves
are curved constantly and equally. Another thing that the graphing software has shown is that
the curve does not meet with the zero point either in X or in Y. The result shows that the
curves have the possibility to have a sine or cosine graph.

Use your knowledge of functions to develop a function that models the behavior noted in the
graph. Describe any variables, parameters, or constraints for the model. Explain clearly how
you established the value of any parameters.
y= A sin ( B ( xc ) ) + D
y = height (m)

x = time (AST)

h=A sin ( B ( t c ) ) + D

A= Amplitude=

maxmin 12.30.7

5.8 m
2
2

To find the A, the amplitude, it needs to subtract the maximum with the minimum number
from the period, which will later on be divided by two. The steps must is already known
because we already know the formula to find the amplitude.

T o find B ,12=
B=

2
B

2
=
12 6

To find B, we need to follow the formula, which is

simplify it that will later on become

.
6

12=

2
. After finding the formula,
B

Adoe 3

D=

midway between the maximumminimum 12.3+0.7

=6.5 m
2
2

To find D, we must first find the formula again. The formula is midway between the
maximum and minimum divided by 2. It is very important to have this formula because it
will provide the answer.

use : (09.00, 0.9) = (9, 0.9)

h=A sin ( B ( t c ) ) + D
0.9=5.8 sin

( 6 ( tc ))+6.5

0.96.5

=sin ( ( 9c ))
5.8
6
5.6

=sin ( 9c )
5.8
6

sin 1

= ( 9c )=1.307422911
( 5.6
)
5.8
6

9c=

1.307422911 6 7
22

9c=2.495989193
c=11.4959891 9

h=5.8sin

( 6 ( t11.50) )+ 6.5

To find C, the formula was adapted from the

h=A sin ( B ( tc ) ) + D . In order to find the

answer, we can step-by-step see the workings above. There is actually no formula to find the
answer because the answer can be manipulated and modified into different numbers. This

Adoe 4
means that the answer will be different according to which period is being manipulated and
used.
Draw a graph of your function on the same axes as the graph in step 1. How well does the
function fit the data?

Legend:

From the graph above, the function that I have discussed did not perfectly fit with the
data plot, because there are many points that did not meet with the periods. Although there
are several points that meets together, there is much more points that does not meet, so by this
it means that the function did not fit well with the data. Since the function do not let the
curves meet the periods, it needs to have a modification that will help the curve to have a

Adoe 5
better fit. Another reason why the curve did not fit perfectly is because the curve was aligning
too much to the left.
Modify the function to create a better fit. Describe the issues you had to consider.

To have a modification that will create a better fit, I will modify the value or the number of
C because it can be manipulated to find the better fit. By manipulating the C I need to
consider all the issues such as deciding which points or periods will be used to help
manipulate the value. By having to change the period used to find C, it will create a
different result that can create a better fit. This modification is needed because my previous
function did not fit the data well; the curve was too aligned to the left. By this modification, I
am looking forward to have a function that is much better than the recent one.

1st Modification
h=A sin ( B ( t c ) ) + D
use (00.00, 7.5) = (0, 7.5)
7.5=5.8 sin

( 6 ( 0c ) )+ 6.5

7.56.5

=sin ( 0c )
5.8
6

=sin ( 0c )
5.8
6

sin 1

( 5.81 )= 6 ( 0c )=0.1732796364

c=

0.1732796364 6 7
22

c=0.3308067786
c=0.33

Adoe 6

h=A sin

( 6 ( t 0.33) )+ 6.5

Legend:
Legend:

2nd Modification
h=A sin ( B ( t c ) ) + D
use (12:00, 6.9) = (12, 6.9)
6.9=5.8 sin

( 6 ( 12c ))=6.5

Adoe 7
6.96.5

=sin (12c )
5.8
6

(12c ))
6
0.4
=sin
5.8

sin 1

= ( 12c )=0.069020304
( 0.4
5.8 ) 6

12c=

0.069020304 6 7
22

12c=0.131766035
c=11.87

Legend:
Legend:
Legend:

Adoe 8

3rd Modification
h=A sin ( B ( t c ) ) + D
use (15:00, 12.3) = (15, 12.3)
12.3=5.8 sin

( 6 ( 15c ))=6.5

12.36.5

=sin ( 15c )
5.8
6

(15c ) )
6
5.8
=sin
5.8

sin 1

= ( 15c )=1.570796327
( 5.8
5.8 ) 6

15c=

1.570796327 6 7
22

15c=2.998792988
c=12.00

Adoe 9

Legend:
Legend:
Legend:
Legend:

Use resource/graphical software to find the sinusoidal regression. Discuss and compare with
your result (between the modified function and the regression result).

Adoe 10

Legend:
Legend:
Legend:
Legend:
Legend:Sinusoidal Regression

After

all

the

third modifications, I was able to

find a function that is pretty accurate and precise when we see through the graph. After
curving the sinusoidal regression, my last function was not far, not that different between the
sinusoidal regression curve. My function is still not that perfect compared to the sinusoidal
regression because in my function that I have modified, there is still several points that did
not meet or intersect with each other. The sinusoidal regression could obtain a very precise
curve because all the values in the parameters are all precise and not being rounded off,
unlike my functions that I have done before. Another reason why sinusoidal regression can be
perfect is because they can already make a curve that is best suited for this problem.

Adoe 11
Below is the recorded data taken before December 27th, 2003.
Time
04:23
09:56
16:01
22:36

Height of Tide
4.6 m
0.9 m
5.8 m
-0.7 m

What is the tidal range between 1601 hours and 2236 hours?
Tidal Range=5.8(0.7 )=5.8+ 0.7=6.5 m

The graph would not look the same because there are winds and if there are winds, it will
affect all the values in the period, thus also changing the final results. The function will not be
able to have a good fit because the strong winds have affected all the tide and other things.
Dues to the strong winds, it has also affected all the numbers which makes it different.
The table below lists the tide heights for 28 December 2003. Does your function fit these
data? What factor causes the result has different periodic phenomena on second day? What
modifications are needed? Confirm that your modified model fits the data.

Adoe 12

The function did not fit the graph well because most of the points did not intersect with the
curve, by this it means that modification are needed to make this better. Modification can
happen to the parameter of C, because C is something that we can manipulate and change, but
we cannot change the other parameters. My function can be like this because in 28 December,
the weather was not the same like the one in 27 December, because the weather is affected by
the strong winds, which makes all the number in the table different. Another reason why it
would be different is also of the water, which changes the table.

Actual
0
1
2

Model 1
7.987568
7.5
14
10.59213
10.2
389
11.8 12.09935

Percentage
Error 1
Error 1
0.0650090
9
6.50090850
0.0384445
0
3.84444989
0.0253689
2.53689068

Adoe 13

12.0

10.0

8.9

6.3

3.6

1.6

0.9

10

1.8

11

4.0

12

6.9

13

9.7

14

11.4

15

12.3

16

11.6

17

9.9

18

7.3

19

4.5

20

2.1

21

0.9

22

0.8

23

2.4

310
12.10504
990
10.60769
664
8.008823
53
5.005344
34
2.402671
97
0.898739
01
0.896840
07
2.397484
39
4.998259
20
8.001740
80
10.60251
561
12.10315
993
12.10126
099
10.59732
803
7.994655
66
4.991176
47
2.392303
36
0.894950
10
0.900646
90
2.407866
11
5.012431
86
Total error
AVG %
error

1
0.0087541
6
0.0607696
6
0.1001321
9
0.2055009
0
0.3325911
2
0.4382881
2
0.0035110
3
0.3319357
7
0.2495648
0
0.1596725
8
0.0930428
5
0.0616807
0
0.0161576
4
0.0864372
4
0.1924590
2
0.3162772
0
0.4683770
3
0.5738332
9
0.0007187
8
2.0098326
4
1.0885132
8
6.9268724
7

0.87541586
6.07696640
10.01321874
20.55008989
33.25911184
43.82881199
0.35110298
33.19357706
24.95648005
15.96725794
9.30428467
6.16806953
1.61576429
8.64372391
19.24590240
31.62771962
46.83770311
57.38332870
0.07187769
200.9832639
6
108.8513275
9

28.86196864

Adoe 14

Model 2
7.497586
14
10.22165
491
11.94772
477
12.21293
287
10.94616
101
8.487106
71
5.495189
91
2.772722
97
1.049762
56
0.788337
71
2.058552
09
4.519785
06
7.512032
42
10.23289
319
11.95274
140
12.21038
259
10.93672
770
8.473320
01
5.480746
86
2.761496
61
1.044763
36
0.790906
24
2.067999
59
4.533578

Error 2
0.0003218
5
0.0021230
3
0.0125190
5
0.0177444
1
0.0946161
0
0.0463925
0
0.1277476
3
0.2297991
7
0.3438984
0
0.1240692
2
0.1436400
5
0.1299462
6
0.0887003
5
0.0549374
4
0.0484860
9
0.0072859
7
0.0571786
5
0.1441090
9
0.2492127
6
0.3863340
9
0.5024936
4
0.1212152
8
1.5849994
9
0.8889908

Percentage
Error 2
0.03218474
0.21230300
1.25190480
1.77444055
9.46161008
4.63925048
12.77476328
22.97991747
34.38984005
12.40692162
14.36400518
12.99462647
8.87003510
5.49374424
4.84860878
0.72859682
5.71786462
14.41090900
24.92127587
38.63340857
50.24936395
12.12152844
158.4999491
7
88.89908663

Adoe 15
08

7
5.4067613
9
22.52817246

Percentage
Model 3
Error 3
Error 3
6.880011 0.0826650
89
8
8.26650807
9.723884 0.0466779
92
5
4.66779490
11.70324 0.0081999
103
1
0.81999125
12.28729 0.0239413
614
4
2.39413449
11.31943 0.1319430
003
0
13.19430033
9.059185 0.0178860
67
3
1.78860304
6.112670 0.0297349
13
0
2.97348997
3.270020 0.0916608
96
4
9.16608436
1.293522 0.1915481
90
8
19.15481845
0.713193 0.2075626
64
3
20.75626269
1.684654 0.0640809
24
8
6.40809775
3.947397 0.0131505
86
3
1.31505342
6.894647 0.0007757
22
6
0.07757649
9.736067 0.0037183
99
5
0.37183494
11.70970 0.0271670
483
9
2.71670906
12.28630 0.0011132
734
2
0.11132246
11.31125 0.0248919
379
1
2.48919149
9.046014 0.0862611
52
6
8.62611595
6.098036 0.1646526
06
0
16.46525952
3.257848 0.2760337
27.60337262

Adoe 16
23
1.287075
76
0.714200
94
1.692845
88
3.960577
17

Model 4
6.485331
94
9.388347
87
11.51682
449
12.29998
957
11.52782
956
9.407406
88
6.507334
04
3.605294
49
1.479499
12
0.700001
16
1.475830
76
3.598941
49
6.500000
00
9.401058
51
11.52416
924
12.29999
884
11.52050

3
0.3871067
8
38.71067813
0.2064434
0
20.64433978
1.1160573
5 111.60573491
0.6502404
9
65.02404854
3.8535132
3
16.05630511

Error 4
0.1352890
7
0.0795737
4
0.0239979
2
0.0249991
3
0.1527829
6
0.0570120
1
0.0329101
6
0.0014706
9
0.0753130
5
0.2222209
3
0.1800940
2
0.1002646
3
0.0579710
1
0.0308187
1
0.0108920
4
0.0000000
9
0.0068533

Percentage
Error 4
13.52890746
7.95737383
2.39979243
2.49991306
15.27829559
5.70120092
3.29101644
0.14706930
7.53130489
22.22209342
18.00940196
10.02646282
5.79710145
3.08187100
1.08920382
0.00000942
0.68533726

Adoe 17
088
9.394705
51
6.492665
96
3.592593
12
1.472170
44
0.700010
43
1.483175
51
3.611652
13

7
0.0510398
5
0.1105937
0
0.2016459
7
0.2989664
6
0.2222106
3
0.8539693
8
0.5048550
5

5.10398480
11.05937035
20.16459737
29.89664567
22.22106300
85.39693829
50.48550546
14.64037176

Sin Reg
7.1472030
84
9.8359431
9
11.711549
78
12.300316
33
11.453542
92
9.3850921
46
6.6173755
88
3.8494126
34
1.7802849
01
0.9325749
48
1.5203818
99
3.3952481
91
6.0836542
79
8.9066115
68
11.151148

4.70395888
3.56918441
0.74957817
2.50263605
14.53542920
5.45047355
5.03770775
6.92812873
11.26780633
3.61943868
15.53433894
15.11879522
11.83109740
8.17926218
2.18290373

Adoe 18
97
12.250382
16
11.926686
85
10.261816
11
7.6762526
28
4.8230108
92
2.4227106
8
1.0815760
57
1.1383263
55
2.5786286
18

0.40339705
2.81626599
3.65470818
5.15414558
7.17801981
15.36717522
20.17511743
42.29079434
7.44285907
8.98721758

I think that it is already good because the different between the sinusoidal regression is not
that far, which means that my function is already good. Yes, this result can be related in reallife problem. This can be used for the fisherman to predict the weather.