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Tide Modeling: Real-life Problem

Putri Khairunnisa Kurnia

Grade 10.1
11 November 2014

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Introduction
Tidal wave happens when the tide goes to the coast from the sea. Along a coast, tidal
cycles will happen often as the seawater flows in and out of the coastlines.
The Bay of Fundy is most known for its high tides and long bay. The ocean bay
stretches from New Brunswick to Nova Scotia, along Canadas east coast. Each day, a lot of
seawater will flow in and out from the Bay of Fundy in only one cycle of tide (Bay of Fundy
Tourism Site). Those things made the Bay of Fundy famous in worldwide range.
For this, I am going to conduct an investigation based on the records that were taken
from 27 December 2003 and 28 December 2003. These records were taken at Grindstone
Island, using Atlantic Standard Time (AST). The investigation consists of me developing a
model function for the tide records that were taken. Model function is an engineered-model,
created to show audience the subject matters records. After I make the model function, I will
pay attention to the tidal range of this particular bay and analyze the ranges. Then, I will create
an experimental sine function specifically to fit the model on the graph. From there, I will
modify the sine function and adjust it to the behavior of the graph, so that itll suit the graph
the best.
The records that are taken are always from hour 00.00 until hour 23.00, so there are
exactly twenty-four tidal heights recorded.
After I finish the whole investigation, I need to reflect upon my working, whether my
results and methods make sense, and whether those results and methods are accurate to my
results.

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Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy, Nova Scotia, Canada
27 December 2003
Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy
16

14

12

10

Height (m)

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

-2

-4
Time (AST)

Graph 1. Tide Height of the Bay of Fundy.

Above is the graph result of the tide height in the Bay of Fundy. The graphs pattern is very obvious here. The
highest tide wont get pass 12.5 on the y-axes. Once it reaches past 12, the graph will eventually fall down.
This is the sine function of the particular graph above:
Y = Asin ( B ( C )) + D
A=

A=
A=

!"#!!"#
!
!".!!!.!
!
!!.!
!

A = 5.8

D=

D=
D=

!"#!!"#
!
!".!!!.!
!
!"
!

D = 6.5

1 period =

12 =

!!
!

!!

B = !"

!!
!

C = + 10

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!!

Height (H) = 5.8sin ( !" ( - 10 )) + 6.5

Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy
y

15

10

Height (m)

0
-5

10

15

20

25

-5

Time (AST)

Graph 2. Experimental Function

The graph above is the result when the raw data and also the function that I created are drawn on the same
axes. The function here is fitting vertical-wise, but I need to shift the graph horizontally so that the raw data
and the function could fit perfectly.

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Modified Functions
As I said before, I need to shift the graph horizontally so that both the raw data and the sine function can fit
perfectly. Here are the modified functions that I have created:
Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy
y

!!

h = 5.8sin ( !" ( - 12 )) + 6.5

15

(Here I only changed the C a.k.a.

the horizontal shift from 10 into 12.)

10

Height (m)

0
-5

10

15

20

25

-5

Time (AST)

Graph 3. First Modified Function

Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy
y

!!

15

h = 5.7132sin ( !".! ( 12)) + 6.5

10

(Here I changed the A from 5.8

sin to 5.7132sin, B from 12 to 12.5, and
the C from 10 to 12)

Height (m)

0
-5

10

15

20

-5

-10
Time (AST)

Graph 4. Second Modified Function

25

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Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy
14

h = 5.6sin ( ! ( 12 )) + 6.5

12

10

(Here I changed the A from 5.8sin

into 5.6, I also completely solved
the fraction of B, from 2pi/12 to
pi/6. I also changed the C, or the
horizontal shift from 10 to 12.)

Height (m)

0
-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

-2

-4

-6
Time (AST)

Graph 5. Third Modified Function

Below is the sinusoidal regression that Ive found using the Graphmatica program.
Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy
16

14

12

10

Height (m)

0
-8

-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

-2

-4

Time (AST)

Graph 6. Sinusoidal Regression for 27 December 2003.

Heres the table of every functions that Ive created, compared to the curve fit.

Average Error

Original

M1

M2

M3

Curve Fit

120.71%

12.87%

6.73%

13.39%

6.65%

By far, the closest function that Ive created to the curve fit is the Modified Function 1, which has the average
error value of 6.73%, while the others are above 7%. I think the second modified function has the closest

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curve to the sinusoidal regression because I decided to find an exact A factor (which is the amplitude) for the
modified function.

Tidal Range
Data taken before December the 27th, 2003

Tuesday

Time

Height of Tide

04:23

4.6 m

09:56

0.9 m

16:01

5.8 m

22:36

-0.7 m

Tidal range: Highest tide Lowest tide

= 5.8 (-0.7)
= 5.8 + 0.7
= 6.5

Strong Wind Case

Supposedly, there was a strong wind to the shore in Nova Scotia on 27 December 2003 from
01.00 04.00. When the strong wind hits the tide, the tide will rise and have bigger waves.
First, we must find the average of the tides during those four hours.
!".!!!!.!!!".!!!".!
!

!!.!
!

= 11.225 m

So, the tides must be higher than 11.225 meters. If the tides data is presented to a graph, the
graph will look like this:

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Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy
y
16

14

12

10

Height (m)

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

-2

Time (AST)

Graph 7. Strong Wind in Nova Scotia.

As you can see, the data of 01.00 until 04.00 are on the higher part of the y-axis because the
wind on those four consecutive hours is strong. If you compare this graph to the original data
plotting, the original data of 01.00 until 04.00 will have a significant difference with this data.

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Tide Height in the Bay of Fundy, Nova Scotia, Canada
28 December 2003
The Bay of Fundy, 28 December 2003
y

16

14

12

10

Height (m)

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

-2

-4

Time (AST)

Graph 8. Tide in Bay of Fundy, 28 December 2003

Above is the graph of the tide in Bay of Fundy, taken on 28 December 2003. Below is both the
data from 27 December 2003 and 28 December 2003 joined.
y

20

15

10

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-5

-10

Graph 9. Tide in Bay of Fundy, 27-28 December 2003

45

50

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Y = Asin ( B ( C )) + D

A=

A=
A=

D=

!"#!!"#

!"#!!"#

D=

!!.!!!.!

!!.!!!.!

D=

13 =

!
!".!

1 period =

!!

C = 13

!!
!

!!

!".!

B = !"

D = 6.4

A = 5.4

!!

Height (H) = 5.4sin ( !" ( - 13 )) + 6.4

The Bay of Fundy, 28 December 2003
y

16

14

12

10

Height (m)

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

-2

Time (AST)

Graph 9. Experimental Function

The modified function that I have created apparently doesnt suit the graph at all. In order to
make it fit, I must shift the graph horizontally (C) to make it fit better, and I also have to change
the amplitude, which is the A in the sine function. After that, I can modify the period (which is
the B in the sine function), and adjust it to the true values.

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Modified Functions
!!

Height (H) = 5.3391sin ( !".! ( 12.9)) + 6.4

The Bay of Fundy, 28 December 2003

This is the first modified

16

14

function. I think this modified

12

function has the closest error to

the regression, as I modified the

Height (m)

10

amplitude so that every curve

will touch the true value. I also

modified the period, horizontal

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

and also vertical shift and

adjust them to the true values

-2

graph.

-4

Time (AST)

Graph 10. First Modified Function

!!

Height (H) = 5.4sin ( !".! ( 12.8 )) + 6.4

The Bay of Fundy, 28 December 2003

This is the second modified function

16

14

that Ive created. The factors that I

12

have modified in this function are

10

the period (which is the B) and the

Height (m)

horizontal shift (which is the C).

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

-2

Time (AST)

Graph 11. Second Modified Function

20

22

24

26

28

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!!

The Bay of Fundy, 28 December 2003

16

Height (H) = 5.34sin ( !".! (

14

12.8 )) + 6.5

12

This is the last modified function or

10

the third modified function that I

Height (m)

have created in order to suit the true

value. Here, the graph shows that it

is almost close into fitting the true

x

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

value. The factors that Ive changed

-2

in this function are the amplitude or

-4
Time (AST)

Graph 12. Third Modified Function

the A, the period or the B, the C or

the horizontal shift, and lastly, the vertical shift or the D. So, basically, I changed everything in this
function in order to find the most suitable function for the true value.

Sinusoidal Regression
The Bay of Fundy, 28 December 2003

H = 5.3391sin (0.5075x + 6.0183) + 6.5846 '

16

curve-fit of Data plot 1; R=0.9978, chi=0.7545

14

after 200 iterations

12

Here is the sinusoidal regression that Ive

10

Height (m)

found using the Graphmaticas Curve Fit

feature. After I find the average in

Microsoft Excel, it shows that this sin-

0
-6

-4

-2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

reg has an average error of 4.27%.

-2

-4

Time (AST)

Graph 13. Sinusoidal Regression

Heres the table that shows every error for my own functions, and also the sinusoidal regression.

Original

Average Error 12.39%

M1

M2

M3

Curve Fit

5.24%

6.54%

6.06%

4.27%

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By far, the function that Ive created that is close to the curve fits average error is the first modified
function, which has the average error of 5.24%. The Curve Fits error is 4.25%, so there is only 0.99%
difference within those two functions. I think, these functions are the closest with each other because
the A factor of both functions (which is the amplitude) is the same. I purposely put a number with
many decimal places for the first modified functions A factor so that I could truly find the function
that will have the same model as the plotted data.
If I were to put the equation of the sin-reg function just like the other functions (Y = Asin ( B ( C ))
+ D), it would be like this:
Curve fit: H = 5.3391sin (0.5075 ( - 6.0183 ) + 6.5846
!!

First Modified Function (M1): Height (H) = 5.3391sin ( !".! ( 12.9)) + 6.4
Here, we can see that the A factor from both functions is the same.
!!

For the B factor, if I simplify M1s B factor, then it means that !".! will be !.!, and if I simplify it
furthermore, it will be 0.5067. With the curve fits B factor, 0.5067 is close enough with 0.5075.
For the C factor, I chose to put 12.9 for M1 because the horizontal shift could start from either 6 or 12.
So if I divide 12.9 by two (so I can compare it to the curve fits C factor), the result will be 6.45. The
gap between these two C factors isnt so big, as it is still 6, but with different numbers in the decimal
places.
For the D factor, the difference between M1s D factor and the Curve Fits D factor is 0.1846.
From here, I could conclude that yes, the first modified function has the best fit to the original plotted
data, as it is almost the same as the curve fits function, and it also has been proven on the graph on the
previous two pages.

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Reflection
I think my results and methods make sense in the context of the problem, which
analyzing the Bay of Fundys tide in Nova Scotia, Canada. The one of the most common
methods that I used in this investigation is trial and error, and I think that always works every
time. I also use the general sine function a lot of times during this investigation to help me find
and arrange the functions that Ive experimented on or modified. Other than those two specific
methods, I use my math knowledge to investigate the case.
I also think that my result is accurate enough because, before I started doing the
investigation, I researched about the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia first. I also used trial and
error method, which I think is the most reliable method as I can modify and test my function a
lot of times before coming to a conclusion that that function will fit the plotted data the best.
I think the results could be related to real life. Tidal flow is actually something that is
happening naturally in real life, so I think this method could be used later when I want to find
the tidal range of a wave or something similar to that. This method can also be used for people
who record tide data, so that they could find the average of the tide, or many other things.
All of the above are the complete investigation of the case of the Bay of Fundy, and
hereby I conclude that the investigation is finally finished.

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Works Cited
"The Phenomenal Bay of Fundy - Bay of Fundy." Bay of Fundy Tourism Site. N.p., n.d. Web.
10 Nov. 2014.