Contact:

Tom Swiss
(773) 485-9477
February 8, 2015

Emanuel Maintains Big Lead

Emanuel may win in first round
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, an independent polling company, is conducting weekly polls for the Mayor
of Chicago. Respondents are selected by random sampling to match Municipal Election turnout ratios
(see Methodology). This week, two polls were run, with and without undecided as an option.

WITH UNDECIDEDS

WITHOUT UNDECIDED OPTION

POLL 1 February 7, 2015

n= 969

POLL 2 February 8, 2015

n= 727

Rahm Emanuel

399

41.2%

Rahm Emanuel

373

51.3%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

182

Jesus Chuy Garcia

185

25.4%

Willie Wilson

103

18.8%
10.6%

Willie Wilson

94

12.9%

Robert Bob Fioretti

54

7.4%

William Dock Walls

21

2.9%

Robert Bob Fioretti

65

William Dock Walls

17

Undecided
Margin of Error +/- 3.21%

203

6.7%
1.8%
20.9%

Margin of Error +/- 3.71%

*Once early voting begins, undecided is removed as a poll option. The last two weekly Mayoral polls
will not have undecided as an option.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1

WEEKLY MAYORAL POLL

ANALYSIS
Once undecided is removed as an option, Rahm Emanuel goes from around 40% to just over 50%. His
51% does not exceed the margin of error, so turnout will determine if he can avoid a runoff. There is
little drama in the Mayors race so turnout will be driven by the Aldermanic races. Uncontested
Aldermen will have low turnout, but competitive wards will have high turnout.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 2





February 7, 2015 n= 969

Rahm Emanuel

399

41.2%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

182

18.8%

Willie Wilson

103

10.6%

Robert Bob Fioretti

65

6.7%

William Dock Walls

17

1.8%

203

20.9%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.21% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 31, 2015 n= 884

Rahm Emanuel

369

41.7%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

147

16.6%

Willie Wilson

86

9.7%

Robert Bob Fioretti

59

6.7%

William Dock Walls

15

1.7%

208

23.5%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.36% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 24, 2015 n= 950

Rahm Emanuel

375

39.5%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

171

18.0%

Willie Wilson

105

11.1%

Robert Bob Fioretti

71

7.5%

William Dock Walls

17

1.8%

211

22.2%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.24% at 95% Confidence Interval

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 3




January 17, 2015 n= 1,010

Rahm Emanuel

384

38.0%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

166

16.4%

Willie Wilson

107

10.6%

Robert Bob Fioretti

68

6.7%

William Dock Walls

15

1.5%

270

26.7%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.15% at 95% Confidence Interval

EMANUEL VS. GARCIA

January 24, 2015 n= 725

Rahm Emanuel

398

54.9%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

327

45.1%

Margin of Error +/- 3.71% at 95% Confidence Interval

METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of
the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10%
voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 4

CROSSTABS January 17th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

468
542

46%
54%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
96
9.5%
Age 31 - 45
281
27.8%
Age 46 - 64
357
35.4%
Age 65 plus
275
27.3%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17

Ward 26
10
Ward 27
22
Ward 28
31
Ward 29
20
Ward 30
7
Ward 31
6
Ward 32
22
Ward 33
15
Ward 34
36
Ward 35
15
Ward 36
11
Ward 37
16
Ward 38
17
Ward 39
19
Ward 40
16
Ward 41
22
Ward 42
21

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 5

20
15
33
29
30
31
20
23
34
8
19
8
13
19
8
16
21


Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

30
45
23
29
10
15
18
14

Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

14
18
17
17
30
34
24
19

CROSSTABS January 24th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

444
506

47%
53%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
79
8.3%
Age 31 - 45
262
27.6%
Age 46 - 64
353
37.2%
Age 65 plus
255
26.9%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7

13
20
39
30
29
29
22

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32

9
19
30
21
11
15
20

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 6


Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

41
27
7
11
12
13
8
10
9
17
18
30
16
26
6
15
18
6

Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

11
25
9
6
22
13
17
22
18
19
26
17
22
29
27
35
18
16

CROSSTABS January 31st Poll

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

423
461

47.9%
52.1%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus

84
239
306
255

9.5%
27.0%
34.6%
28.8%

Respondents by Ward
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 7


Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

17
15
28
27
21
25
28
22
20
8
11
8
21
5
1
24
12
14
32
15
29
11
12
26
8

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

11
15
23
18
9
6
19
20
23
5
11
19
22
30
16
22
17
19
24
13
18
28
20
26
10

CROSSTABS February 7th Poll

Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

451
518

46.5%
53.5%

Respondents by Age
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 8


Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus

91
270
357
251

9.4%
27.9%
36.8%
25.9%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

19
20
28
31
29
26
24
27
20
9
10
10
8
9
6
25
17
17
36
15
28
8
10
16
18

26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

17
24
22
20
6
8
31
11
29
14
5
31
13
23
16
23
29
19
19
24
21
30
29
23
16

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 9

CROSSTABS February 8th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

315
412

43.3%
56.7%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus

81
196
239
210

11.2%
27.0%
32.9%
28.9%

Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count

13
7
19
26
25
22
16
20
16
5
15
3
18
7
7
13
18
19

26 Count
8

27 Count
22

28 Count
16

29 Count
18

30 Count
8

31 Count
4

32 Count
16

33 Count
9

34 Count
24

35 Count
11

36 Count
6

37 Count
15

38 Count
13

39 Count
15

40 Count
12

41 Count
18

42 Count
12

43 Count
17

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page
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19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count

18
11
22
1
12
14
20

44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count

20
11
12
20
23
12
18

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page
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