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    War College Paper

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    Omar Arabi
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    © All Rights Reserved
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    USAWG STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST by Brigadier General Abdetfattah SaidElSisi Egyptian Army Colonel Stephen J Gerras Project Advice ‘The views expressed in this student academic research paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official poley or positon of the Depertment of the Army. Department of Detense, or the US. Goverment. U.S. Army War College CARLISLE BARRACKS, PENNSYLVANIA 17013 Report Documentation Page ct er pica nce ene Igy ste clot nt mt Z [REPORT DATE 15 MAR 2006 2. REPORT TNH S.DATES COVERED (00-00-2008 to 00-00-2006 “TITLE AND SUBTITLE Democracy in the Middle East Ss CONTRACTNUMIER ‘Sk GRANT NUMBER ‘PROGRAM ELE AUTHOR'S) Abdelfattah Et Sisi Se TASK NUMER SC.WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME{S) AND ADDRESS(ES) US. Army War College Carlisle Barracks,Carlisle,PA,17013-50S0 1. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER. '5.SPONSORINGIMONITORING AGENCY NAMES) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10, SPONSORMONFTOR'S ACRONYMS) 11. SPONSORMONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S) '2,DISTRIBUTIONAVAILABILITY STATEMENT. Di US. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Carlisle, PA, 17013-5050. tion authorized to US Government agencies only; Administrative or Operational Use; 5-03-2006; 1 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES (OF PAGES. | RISPONSIBL PERSON 16 AASTRACT See attached. 15 SURIECT TERMS Pe RaSTRACT — ‘anmeeacr crs ace 1 unclassified unclassified unclassified ABSTRACT AUTHOR: BG Abdelatiah Seid EISisi me Democrecy in the Midele East FORMAT, StrategyResearch Project DATE: 15 March 2008 WORDCOUNT:5127 PAGES: 17 KEYTERMS: ‘Middle East, Democracy, Strategic Vision CLASSIFICATION: —_Unciassifed ‘This paper addresses theimpact of democratzing the Middle East. Iwill assess the Ccurent strategic and polticl cenitions in the Middle East and wil highlight the challenge the risks and the advantages proviced by @ democratic frm of government, Areas addressed will include: dfering perspectives between the Middle Eastern and Western cutures: impacts of [poverty lack education, and relgion; lack o strategic vision; psychological nature ofthe people ‘and the government; and, inherent sks of new democracies, The paper will conclude by ‘addressing the future of democracy inthe Middle East. DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST ‘The Middle East region is considered one of the important cntical regions in the world ‘The Midale East region is the bith place of major reigions, including Islam, Christian and Jewish religions. The effect of te religious nature ofthe environment i evident inthe culture of ‘Middle Eastern people ands one of the most important factors that affect the polis ofthe region. Because ofthe nature of the Middle Eastern culture, one must take into account the religious nature of the people when conducting diplomatic negotiations and estabishing pot. From an economic perspective, the Middle Easts blessed with huge ol and natural gas. reserves which provide much of the word's energy needs. Because ofthis, world superpowers ‘maintain a keen focus on the area and attempt to influence and dominate the region 0 that energy requirements for economic viability within their own county are sustained As @ result, the Middle East is under constant pressure to satily multiple country agendas that may not ‘coincide with the needs or wants of the Middle Eastern people. Furthermore, geographically {and from a world perspective, the Middle East isa strategic area because of the Suez Canal, ‘Straits of Hormuz and the Babel Man dab Straight. These are all rtical commercial shipping lanes and are vital to any military considerations. The strategie nature ofthe region coupled With religious nature ofthe culture creates an environment that prevents challenges to the estabishment of a democracy throughout the region in the near term, ‘The Arab-Israel conflict further complicates the development of democracy, The confict isnot strict a Palestinian and Israeli conflict, but a confi that affects all Arabs inthe Middle East. The fact that Israel reflects a Western intrest raises suspicion among Arabs about the ‘rue nature of democracy’. This, in tur, will slow the emergence of democracy in the Middle East and may justly a brand of democracy that truly reflects Middle Eastern interests and may bear lite resemblance toa Western democracy, ? Although the Middle Eastis beginning to transition towards democratic forms of ‘government, there are sil the remains of dictatorial and autocratic regimes, Coupled with the tension tha already existsin the Middle East due tothe conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and the cconfict surrounding Isr, the conditions fo futher developing democracy willbe strained. The ‘existing confict and tension needs tobe resolved before democracy canbe more fully accepted by the people ofthe area, (On the surtace, many ofthe autocratic leaders claim that they are in favor of democratic Ideals and forms of government, but they are leery of relinquishing contralto the veting public of their regimes There are some valid reasons for this. First, many countries are not organized ina manner to support a democratic form of government* More important, there are security Concems both internal and externalto the counties. Many of the nation’s police forces and riltary forces are loyal tothe ruling party. Ifa democracy evolves with diferent consttuencies, there is no guaranty thatthe police and military forces will align wit the emerging ruling partes. In essence the security forces ofa nation need te develop a culture that demonstrates ‘commitment to a nation rather than a ruling party, Furthermore, regime populations need to be Prepared to assume a paticipatory role in a democratic form of government, This will require time to educate the population as well as develop the democratic processes that will enable democracy to gain traction, ‘America has been a driving force the Middle East with respect to supporting America's ‘ational interests. In her effort to do so, America has supported non-democratic regimes and ‘some regimes that were not necessarily well respected inthe Middle East. Examples include Guif State regime, Saudi Arabia, the eary Saddam regime, Morocco, Algeria, etc. AS aresut, ‘many in the Middle East question the motives ofthe Urited States and her desire to establish ‘democracy inthe Midale East now. Is transitioning to democracy inthe best interes of United ‘States, ori iin the interest ofthe Middle Eastern countries? Democracy development inthe ‘Middle East wil not easily emerge ithe ination of democracy in the Middle Eastis perceived ‘a8 amove by the United States to further her own selt-interest. Theres also concern that the Global War on Terrorism is really just a mask for establishing Western democracy in the Middle East. * For democracy tobe success{ulin the Middle East, it must reflect Middle Eastern Interests and not United States" interests ony. Furthermore, democracy must be seen as being beneficial tothe people ofthe Middle East—showing respect othe religious nature ofthe culture as well as improving conditions forthe common man, ‘Akey benchmark for testing democracy in the Middle Eastis how democracy emerges in Iraq. Wil America allow iraq to develop in its own way as a democracy or wil itr to shape ‘demacracy into a pro-Westem form or regime? For example, diferent Mustim groups (Musi Brotherhood, Shia, etc.) are likely to emerge in diferent Middle Eastern countries as rung entities in democratic forms of government. IT iraq is perceived as an American puppet, then ‘other countnes may not be enticed to move towards democracy and f they do, is America ready tozccept Midcle Eastern democracies in their own form that may or may not be sympathetic to Westem interests, particularly in the early years of a Middle Eastesn democracy. The wants and desires ofthe countries’ populations themselves need to be considered Do they really want democracy and are they wiling to change their ways to establish it and make it work? Changing a potical culture ie always hard, itis one thing to say that a democracy is a preferred form of government, but quite another to adjust tits requirements ‘and accept some the risks that go along witht. For example, history has shown tha inthe frst {en years of a new democracy, confit skely to occur either externally or internally as the new ‘democracy matures.” The people comprising these new democracies must be commited to the emecratickleel and must be wling to overcome and work through the challenges. ‘Simply changing the potical systems from autocratic rule to democratic rue will not be {enough tobuild anew democracy. The economic, religious, education, media, security and legal systems willallbe affected. As.a result, it wll take time for people and the nation's systems to adjust to the new form of government and free market system that wil emerge. Furthermore, existing democratic countries wil need tobe supportive and patient with the burgeoning new democracies. in my opinion democracy needs good environment ike a ‘reasonable economic situation, educated people, and as moderate understanding of religious Issues and at the end (minim acknowledge approved from regimes to share power). Given that the Midle Eastem countries have a strong religious bas, itis important for Islamic leaders to ‘convince the Mile Eastern people that democracy is goed forthe country ands na in conic with moderate Istamic ideals. This ype of pubic support from religious leaders can help build ‘trong support forthe establishment of democratic systems and change that will accompany the transition Due tothe change that willbe required and the accompanying time requirements, one ‘cannot expect the Middle Eastern countries to conver quickly to a democratic form of ‘government. There is a concern the Middle East that American isin a hury to Democratize the Midsle East based upon its aggressive actions in aq and Afghanistan as well as its strategy to take pre-emptive action if she chooses todo so." Moving too quickly can affect the Stability ofthe region as American motives may be perceived as being self-centered and not ‘supportive ofthe Middle Easter way of fe, Itis important that Middle Eastem countres move towards democracy ina logical, steady and controled manner done on the terms of Mle Eastem counties. Yet, Western democracies will need to be supportwe; providing economic, ‘education and technological support to help fester development and change. Concer er Before continuing further, itis important to gain an understanding of how democracy is perceived by the ordinary people ofthe Middle East. Democracy, as a secular entity is unikely tobe favorably received by the vast majority of Middle Eastemers, who are devout followers of the Islamic faith* Traditionally there is tension among the Musi countries with respect tothe establishment of a democratic form of government. On the one hand, there ae those who believe that democratic rule can co-exist with the reigious nature ofthe Middle Eastern societies; however, on the other hand there are those who believe thatthe tribal culture ofthe ‘Middle Eastern countries may not be suitable for democratic rule as too many factions wil lernerge. The result wil be 8 "ractured” society that cannot effectively unite and there is also the. risk that his could impact the cohesion produced by the Mustm faith, Although concerns exist, for the most part, the spit of democracy, or selfrule, is viewed as a positive endeavor so long as itbuilds up the country and sustains the religious base versus devaluing elgon and creating instabliy. "Creating tis balance wilbe the challenge as most Western democracies have ‘attempted to maintain a separation of church and stale, What this suggests that as ‘democracy grows in the Middle East, it is not necessarly going fo evolve upon a Western template—it wil have its own shape or form coupled with stronger religious tes, Democracy cannot be understood in the Middle East without an understanding ofthe concept of EI Kalafa. ElKalafa dates back tothe time ofthe prophet Mohammed." During his life and the seventy year period that followed the ideal state of ElKalafa existed as a way of ie ‘among the people and within the governing bodies. This period of time is viewed as a very special period and is considered the ideal form of goverment and itis widely recognized as the {908 for any new form of government very much in the manner that the U.S. pursued the ideals "if, liberty and pursuit of happiness", From the Miele Eastern perspective the defining ‘words governing their form of democracy would likely eflect“faimess, justice, equality, unity ‘and charity’. ‘Achieving the ideals always atthe forefront of the Middle Easter society, yet folowing ‘Mohammed's death and hs latent influence, the government which was represented by the El Kalafa began to stray trom the ideals fostered by the prophet Mohammed. The leaders of El Kalafa begin to 1ook inward and use power for their own wellbeing, rather than the well being of their fellow man. Those in power attempted to secure their power by passing on leadership Control to family members rather than the most qualifed leaders as determined by the members, ofthe Elba, which represented El Kalafa™ As a resut, dissatisfaction wth how the El Kalafa process was being carried out arose, and many members became disenfranchised and chose to form their own version of El Kalafa leading tothe emergence of Trial and ethric factions within what were once a unified Istamicbody. As we consider the Middle Eastem Islamic body today, we stil see the fallout from the early divisions within the Islamic community, where Various tribal and ethnic factions exist. Given this current tat, the challenge becomes one of ‘attempting to reunite these tribal and ethnic factions so thatthe earliest frm of EI Kaata is reestablished Related tothe El Kalafa are the roles of the Elbia and Elshorah, Both ofthese processes ere represented in he early years ofthe Muslim faith and therefore are considered important and respected processes" The Elbaya'a is the election process for choosing the ElKalfa, ‘while the EI Shorah advisory and oversight body tothe El Kalifa or Calfate, The ElShorah Performs its ole from a religious viewpoint, that itensures that the Calfateis carrying out is duties in accordance with Islamic teachings. Although these processes have religious historical ties, they also represent processes by which a democracy can emerge. Given the religious nature ofthe Middle Eastern culture, how might a Middle Eastern democracy is structured? Will there be three o four branches of goverment? Should a relgious branch be added tothe executive, legislative and judicial branches to ensure thatthe Islamic beliefs and law are followed? A simple answer might be yes, but that is probably nat the best means. Ideally, the legislative, executive and judicial bodies should alltake Islamic beliefs into consideration when carying out their duties. As such, there should be no need fora ‘separate eligious branch. However, to cody the major tenets ofthe Islamic faith, they should be represented inthe constitution or similar document, This does not mean a theocracy will be established, rather it means that a democracy willbe established built upon Islamic beliefs [As one considers democracy inthe Middle East, the mest important action to consider is toallowitto emerge. It may not be the same brand or shape as Western democracy, butit wil beastar. As ageneral rule, most Middle Easterners fully support the spit of democracy and will supportit as long as it emerges and seeks to unify the whole, This includes allowing some factions that may be considered racial, particularly if they ate supported by @ majority through legitimate vote, The world cannot demand democracy in the Midale East, yet denounce what itlooks lke because a less than pro-Western party legitimately assumes ofce. For example, the Palestinians recently elected members from theHamas group. This group isnot on favorable terms with the U.S. and other Westem countries, yet they have legitimately elected It is now up to the Hamas and the rest ofthe world to work out their potical diferences. itis important that even though significant differences exis, particularly with respect to the status of Israel, that legitimately elected partes be given the opportunity to govern. Ifthis opportunity is ‘nt provided, Middle Eastern countries wll question the credibly of Western nations and their ‘eal intentions with respectto democratic rule and what itrepresents, [A his point in the history ofthe Middle East, the question of democracy isan important ‘one and the Middle Eastis ripe to consider it, Many inthe Middle East feel that the autocratic forms of government that currently and have previously existed have not produced the progress that people expected, especially when compared to some other parts of the Musi world, for example Malaysia, Pakistan and Indonesia; et alone some of the Western counties The question of establishing democracy isnot being thwarted by Islamic tenets. The practice of stam and democracy can coexist. When democracy was initiated inthe United States, twas bull upon Judeo Christian values. Given the excessive influence ofthe Church of England, the U.S. decided to incide language inthe Constitution that provided some separation from church and stat, but religion was not eliminated from government, despite what some are ed tobelieve. Cleary, n the early years, religion was important and shaped the values of the American nation” In the Middle East, the approach is realy no diferent with the exception thatthe Muslim faith i the basis upon which the Middle Eastem form of democracy willbe built. As with the American tradition, other faiths would be alowed to exist, but the prevalent region inthe Middle East slam, so its logical to assume that a democratic form of government willbe founded on these beliefs. The challenge that exists is whether the rest ofthe world willbe abe to accept a democracy in the Midale East founded on islamic belief. Practically speaking this should not be an issue because Islamic beliefs produce ‘behavior that's more than comparable to other religious behavior, ‘The Middle East Democracy Challenges, Internaly there are a number of challenges that will create friction in the development of democracy. These items include the state of poverty, state of education, practice of religion, Psychological nature of the population and the goverment. Within the Middle East, the entire Income is $700 billion and is less than the income of the country of Spain, _When considering allthe Musi countries, including those outside the Mile East, the entire income is les than France, Povertyin the Middle Eastis driven by a number of factors tha include wa, for ‘example, Arab-lsrael confit, rar-raq war, Morocoo-Es Sahara confct and Syria-Lebenon, to name a few. These have driven up both intemal and external debt and have inhibited economic ‘growth Poor economic policies and poltical decisions have exacerbated the economics. For example, many Middle East countries attempted to sustain government controlled markets instead of free markets and as a result no incentive developed to dive the economy." ‘Government policies with respect to jab creation led to dtficulies because too often excess jobs Were created when sufficient funding was not avaiable to suppor the program resulting in high ‘unemployment and public disenchantment with the government Disenchant withthe ‘governments a prominent factor today and serves as a point of rcton as democracy is considered. Inthe minds of Middle Easterners, any government is viewed in a suspicious manner, Furthermore, those in power seem tobe living in luxury, while the common man ‘struggles to get by. This further aggravates the perception of what government can realy do for the people. Day o day people struggle to get by. The economy is not vibrant and many Middle Easterners are unemployed. Given weak economic systems, people do what they need ta da ta {get by and often corruption isa path that emerges as those who hold power and wealth tend to ‘manipulate the poorer population” As a consequence, socal behavior considers this "quid pro quo" approach as normal, This creates cultural behavior tha is contrary tothe values upon which a democracy is based. Upon implementing a democracy, there willbe a strong tendency {or the population to “buy of” their politicians in return for favors. Over tee and through education this can change, butt may take a generation or two for itto happen. To address the slate of poverty in the Middle East, economic and political conditions must improve whether or ota democracy’ established, The fact that change is nevessary creates an opportunity for ‘democracy; however, it also creates opportunities fr other forms of government as well some: ‘of which are not preferable, Those who promote democracy de have an opportunity now inthe Midaie East. poverty can be overcome in Middle Eastern countries, there can be a greater chance that democracy wil more quickly emerge. Internaly, Middle Eastern counties must take action to strengthen their economies, but they are unlikely to accomplish ths task without external support from Western democracies. Support may come inthe form of investment in Middle Eastem businesses as a well asthe establishment of business in the Middle East, Whats important is that a commitment be made to moving the economies forward, To ensure support is being developed adequately and that precautions are taken against the real 'sk of corruption, a special government agency or reporting system should be established to regularly monitor the ‘conduct of Middle Eastem business. Perhapsit's time to reinvigorate the role of the Arab League in economic matters trade oversight®* These actions could ameliorate the conditions of poverty and give democracy a better chance. ‘As the common man in the Middle East views the bilions of dollars the US. Is spending fn the war in rag, he may be quick to say, why don't you use that money to economically

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