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  • Output Minitab 17 Winter

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    Yurida Firdausa Wardhani
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    The document contains the results of Winters' method, a time series forecasting model, applied to a data set (C2) with 48 observations. It evaluates the model using various smoothing constant values (α, γ, δ from 0.1 to 0.5) and reports accuracy measures, forecasts, and a plot of the actual vs fitted and forecasted values with prediction intervals.

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    The document contains the results of Winters' method, a time series forecasting model, applied to a data set (C2) with 48 observations. It evaluates the model using various smoothing constant values (α, γ, δ from 0.1 to 0.5) and reports accuracy measures, forecasts, and a plot of the actual vs fitted and forecasted values with prediction intervals.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    20 views5 pages

    Output Minitab 17 Winter

    Uploaded by

    Yurida Firdausa Wardhani
    The document contains the results of Winters' method, a time series forecasting model, applied to a data set (C2) with 48 observations. It evaluates the model using various smoothing constant values (α, γ, δ from 0.1 to 0.5) and reports accuracy measures, forecasts, and a plot of the actual vs fitted and forecasted values with prediction intervals.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 5

    LAMPIRAN 1

    OUTPUT MINITAB 17 WINTERS METHOD


    Winters Method for C2
    Multiplicative Method
    Data
    Length

    C2
    48

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    (trend)
    (seasonal)

    0.1
    0.1
    0.1

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    MAD
    MSD

    17
    1088
    1689521

    Forecasts
    Forecast
    3086.7
    5764.3
    8526.9
    10614.2
    12638.9
    13813.9
    14931.6
    14803.5
    14308.4
    13952.8
    12595.8
    10709.1

    Lower
    420.7
    3088.1
    5839.8
    7915.5
    9928.2
    11090.4
    12194.8
    12052.7
    11543.1
    11172.3
    9799.7
    7896.7

    Upper
    5752.7
    8440.5
    11214.1
    13312.8
    15349.7
    16537.4
    17668.5
    17554.3
    17073.8
    16733.2
    15392.0
    13521.5

    Winters Method Plot for C2


    Multiplicative Method
    20000

    C2

    Period
    49
    50
    51
    52
    53
    54
    55
    56
    57
    58
    59
    60

    15000

    Variable
    Actual
    Fits
    Forecasts
    95.0% PI

    10000

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    0.1
    (trend)
    0.1
    (seasonal) 0.1
    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    17
    MAD
    1097
    MSD
    1720117

    5000

    0
    1

    12

    18

    24

    30

    Index

    36

    42

    48

    54

    60

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    (trend)
    (seasonal)

    0.2
    0.2
    0.2

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    MAD
    MSD

    19
    1344
    2464594

    Forecasts
    Forecast
    2916.3
    5305.0
    7830.2
    9761.9
    11556.1
    12505.3
    13367.1
    13147.8
    12610.0
    12232.8
    11010.6
    9310.7

    Lower
    -377.66
    1959.45
    4427.10
    6295.65
    8021.34
    8896.97
    9680.43
    9378.43
    8753.82
    8285.81
    6969.23
    5171.65

    Upper
    6210.3
    8650.6
    11233.3
    13228.2
    15090.9
    16113.7
    17053.7
    16917.1
    16466.3
    16179.7
    15051.9
    13449.8

    Winters Method Plot for C2


    Multiplicative Method
    18000

    Variable
    Actual
    Fits
    Forecasts
    95.0% PI

    16000
    14000
    12000

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    0.2
    (trend)
    0.2
    (seasonal) 0.2

    10000

    C2

    Period
    49
    50
    51
    52
    53
    54
    55
    56
    57
    58
    59
    60

    8000

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    19
    MAD
    1344
    MSD 2464594

    6000
    4000
    2000
    0
    1

    12

    18

    24

    30

    Index

    36

    42

    48

    54

    60

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    (trend)
    (seasonal)

    0.3
    0.3
    0.3

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    MAD
    MSD

    19
    1406
    2967120

    Forecasts
    Forecast
    3090.7
    5615.2
    8653.8
    11209.1
    13604.5
    14995.9
    16291.1
    16316.7
    15944.8
    15796.0
    14519.1
    12482.6

    Lower
    -353.8
    2047.2
    4943.0
    7338.5
    9558.9
    10762.0
    11857.4
    11673.2
    11082.7
    10707.7
    9197.8
    6922.7

    Upper
    6535.3
    9183.2
    12364.6
    15079.8
    17650.2
    19229.7
    20724.7
    20960.2
    20806.9
    20884.3
    19840.3
    18042.6

    Winters Method Plot for C2


    Multiplicative Method
    Variable
    Actual
    Fits
    Forecasts
    95.0% PI

    20000

    15000

    C2

    Period
    49
    50
    51
    52
    53
    54
    55
    56
    57
    58
    59
    60

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    0.3
    (trend)
    0.3
    (seasonal) 0.3

    10000

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    19
    MAD
    1406
    MSD 2967120

    5000

    0
    1

    12

    18

    24

    30

    Index

    36

    42

    48

    54

    60

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    (trend)
    (seasonal)

    0.4
    0.4
    0.4

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    MAD
    MSD

    18
    1323
    2680531

    Forecasts
    Period
    49
    50
    51
    52
    53
    54
    55
    56
    57
    58
    59
    60

    Forecast
    3539.6
    6236.8
    9936.1
    13152.7
    16123.1
    17709.9
    19168.3
    19274.0
    19086.1
    19288.6
    18142.0
    15927.6

    Lower
    299.3
    2787.2
    6238.4
    9175.3
    11840.7
    13102.0
    14218.7
    13969.4
    13415.9
    13243.9
    11715.6
    9113.6

    Upper
    6779.9
    9686.3
    13633.8
    17130.0
    20405.5
    22317.8
    24118.0
    24578.6
    24756.4
    25333.3
    24568.4
    22741.7

    Winters Method Plot for C2


    Multiplicative Method
    Variable
    Actual
    Fits
    Forecasts
    95.0% PI

    25000

    20000

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    0.4
    (trend)
    0.4
    (seasonal) 0.4

    C2

    15000

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    18
    MAD
    1336
    MSD
    2700180

    10000

    5000

    0
    1

    12

    18

    24

    30

    Index

    36

    42

    48

    54

    60

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    (trend)
    (seasonal)

    0.5
    0.5
    0.5

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    MAD
    MSD

    18
    1255
    2535961

    Forecasts
    Period
    49
    50
    51
    52
    53
    54
    55
    56
    57
    58
    59
    60

    Forecast
    3547.5
    5916.1
    9528.5
    12725.7
    15507.5
    16782.8
    18180.7
    18632.1
    18926.0
    19572.7
    18651.6
    16328.8

    Lower
    471.8
    2526.9
    5761.7
    8534.3
    10857.6
    11649.4
    12545.4
    12480.8
    12248.1
    12359.7
    10896.9
    8027.0

    Upper
    6623.1
    9305.3
    13295.4
    16917.1
    20157.4
    21916.1
    23816.0
    24783.4
    25604.0
    26785.7
    26406.3
    24630.5

    Winters Method Plot for C2


    Multiplicative Method
    30000

    Variable
    Actual
    Fits
    Forecasts
    95.0% PI

    25000

    C2

    20000

    Smoothing Constants
    (level)
    0.5
    (trend)
    0.5
    (seasonal) 0.5

    15000

    Accuracy Measures
    MAPE
    18
    MAD
    1248
    MSD
    2510946

    10000

    5000

    0
    1

    12

    18

    24

    30

    Index

    36

    42

    48

    54

    60

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