TristenGamboa

Mrs.VeeNguyen
Math2
Period1
October17,2014

MathematicsWriteup

ProblemStatement:
1. AlandBettyareplayingaspinninggame.Thespinnerisdividedinto5equalparts. 45
ofthespinnerisshaded,while 15 iswhite.IfeitherBettyorAlspinandlandonthe
whitearea,Alreceives$1.25fromBetty.Butifthespinnerarrowlandsontheshaded
region,AlgivesBetty$0.30.

A) WhatisAlsexpectedvalueperspin?WhatisBettys?
B) Howmightthepaymentsbechangedsothatthegameisfair?

2. ArchibaldandBeatricearepullingcardsfromaregular52carddeck.Aftereachdraw
thecardisreturnedtothedeck.Ifeither(doesn'tmatterwhodrawsthecard)ofthem
pullsajack,BeatricepaysArchibald20cents.Butifaheartisdrawn,Archibaldpays
Beatrice8cents.Ifneitherajacknoraheartisdrawn,theybothgiveapennyto
charity.

C) WhatistheexpectedvalueperdrawforArchibald,Beatrice,andforcharity?

Process&Solution:

FirstItriedtofindtheprobabilityoflandingonacertainarea.Basedonhowmanyof
thatcertainregiontherewere,Iputitoverthetotalregionsofthespinner.For
example,thereis1shadedregionoutof5totalregionsonthecircularspinner.

TheoreticalProbability:

P(Alsregiongetslandedon)= 15 ofthetotalspins(20%)

P(Bettysregiongetslandedon)= 45 ofthetotalspins(80%)

NextIplayedthegamealongwithmyfriendsspinningatotalof25times.Wechose
thisnumberbecauseitwasenoughtocreateagooddatasetandyeteasytocalculate.

ObservedProbability:

P(Al)=(6outof25spins) 256

P(Betty)=(19outof25spins) 19
25

ThenIcalculatedthetheoreticalweightedprobabilitybyusingtheequation:
costforbeinglandedon theoreticalprobabilityofaspin=theoreticalweightedprobability
Knowingthetheoreticalweightedprobabilitygivesmethe
expectedvalue
eachplayershould
getperspinbasedonthechancethattheirregiongetslandedon.Thishelpsmepredictwhois
morelikelytowinoverrepetition(inthelongrun)ofthegame.

TheoreticalWeightedProbability:

costforbeinglandedon theoreticalprobabilityofaspin=theoreticalweightedprobability

Al=$1.25(20%)=$0.25
expectedvalueperspin

Betty=$0.30(80%)=$0.24
expectedvalueperspin

LaterIcalculatedtheobservedweightedprobabilityusingtheequation:
costforbeinglandedon observedprobabilityofaspin=observedweightedprobability
Thisservesthesamepurposeofthetheoreticalweightedprobability,howeveritusesthe
observedchanceofaspecificregionbeinglandedon.Thisisnotnormallyusedbutitgivesus
anideawhowillwinforthisseriesofevents,becausetheprobabilityrecordedisreal.

ObservedWeightedProbability:

A)
costforbeinglandedon observedprobabilityofaspin=observedweightedprobability

Al=$1.25(24%)=$0.30
expectedvalueperspin

Betty=$0.30(76%) $0.23
expectedvalueperspin

LastIattemptedtofindoutwhatthepriceswouldneedtobeinorderforthegameto
befair,whilemaintainingtheregionsontheboard(theoreticalprobability).Inorderto
figureoutwhenthetwoareasofthespinnerwillhavean
equalchanceofwinning
,
theymustbeequalintheoreticalweightedprobability.
(theoreticalprobability moneywon=theoreticalweightedprobabilityofacertainregion)
Sothe
weightedtheoreticalprobabilityofAlsregion
=
weightedtheoreticalprobabilityofBettysregion

SimplyAl=Betty

B)
x1 representthecostBettypaysAl
x2 representsthecostAlpaysBetty

20% (x1) =80% (x2) or0.2 (x1) =0.8 (x2)

Thiscanbereducedto: x1 =4 x2

x1 mustbefourtimesgreaterthanthecostof x2

SoanexampleofwhatthecostoflandingonAlsregionis$0.40andBettysregionshouldbe
$0.10.

Checked:
P(Alsregion)=0.2 $0.40=$0.08

P(Bettysregion)=0.8 $0.10=$0.08

Soinorderforthegametobefair,theamountBettymustpayAlwhenshelandson
hisregionmustbefourtimestheamountAlpaysherwhenhelandsonherspace.This
isbecauseshehasfourmoretimesthechanceofherspacebeinglandedonthanAl
does.Sototheoreticallymakethegamefair,weincreasehispricetocompensatefor
thehigherchancethatBettysregionwillbelandedon.

C)
Thisproblemwasprettysimpleafterfiguringoutthepreviousone.Ijustwentonand
calculatedthetheoreticalweightedprobability.Iagainusedthesimilarequation:
theoreticalprobabilityofaspecificcardbeingdrawn valueofdrawingthatcard=expectedvalue

Jack=Archibaldgets$0.20
Heart=Beatricegets$0.08
Neither=Charitygets$0.01

P(jack)= 524
P(heart)= 13
52
P(neitherjackorheart)= 35
52

4
expectedvalue
perspin
52 $0.20=$0.015Archibalds

13
expectedvalue
perspin
52 $0.08=$0.02Beatrices

35
expectedvalue
perspin
52 $0.01=$0.0067Charitys

Connection:
Theoreticalweightedprobabilityisthechanceofgettingacertainthing(anoption)inwhich
otheroptionshaveadifferentvalue.Thischanceofacertainoption,akatheprobability,is
takenfromthetheoreticalprobabilityofanoccurrenceinanevent.Thismodelornumber
cannotbechanged,becauseitisaneducatedpredictionofanoccurrencebasedonthe
circumstances.Thisusuallyinvolvesmath,likedecimals,percentages,orfractions.

Anexampleis:alocalradiostationisatastreetfairtryingtopromotethemselves.Theyare
havingchildrenandadultsspinaprizewheelwith6equalsections.Eachsectioncontainsa
prize,buteachsection/prizehasadifferentvalue.Iftheprizesare:
section1$100gasgiftcard
section2pairofmovieticketsworth$20
section3reusablewaterbottleworth$5
section4musicgiftcardworth15$
section5YouLose!(worth$0)
section6pairofmovieticketsworth$20

TheoreticalProbability:
Thetheoreticalprobabilityofgettingnothingfromtheprizewheelinthissituationwouldbea
1
YouLose!
optionoutofthetotalof6sections.However
6 chance,becausethereisonlyone
sincethereistwosectionswiththeprize
PairofMovieTickets,
thetheoreticalprobabilityor
chanceofgettingitis2outof6,or 26 = 13 .
ObservedProbability:
Observedprobability,akaexperimentalprobability,isthesameconceptastheoretical
probabilityinthesensethatitisthechanceofgettingacertainoptioninanevent.Howeverit
isfromcarryingoutyourownexperimentorgame.SoifIweretofindtheobserved
probabilityofthisscenario,Iwouldspinthewheelmultipletimesandrecordhowmanytimes
IlandedonacertainsectionoutofthetotalspinsIdid.Observedprobabilitywilleventually
continuetogetmoreaccurate(closer)tothetheoreticalprobabilityafterrepetition.

TheoreticalWeightedProbability:
Theoreticalweightedprobabilityisthesameastheoreticalprobability,butthewordweighted
meansthevalue.Thisvalueinthisscenariomeansthepriceorworth.Inothereventsit
couldmeanpoints,etc.Andsinceeachprizehasadifferentvalue,theprobabilityofgettinga
certainoptionanditsworthisawholenewmeasurement.Thetheoreticalprobabilityisfound
usingtheequation:
Theoreticalprobabilityofaspin Worthofaprize=theoreticalweighted
probability
Thetheoreticalweightedprobabilityofgettinga
ReusableWaterBottle
is
1

$5

$0.83expectedvalue

Howeverthetheoreticalweightedprobabilityofgettinga
PairofMovieTickets
is
2
6 $10 $3.33 expectedvalue

ObservedWeightedProbability:
Observedweightedprobabilityisthesameastheoreticalweightedprobability,butyouusethe
observedprobabilityinsteadoftheoretical.Theequationwouldthenbe:
Observedprobabilityofaspin Worthofaprize=observedweightedprobability

ExpectedValue:
Thenumberyougetfromcalculatingtheoreticalorobservedweightedprobabilityiscalled
expectedvalue.Itiswhatyouexpecttogetfromgettingacertainoptionwithaspecificvalue.
Itestimateswhatvalueyouwillreceiveperspinbasedoffoftheprobabilityofgettinga
certainoption.Thistellsyouwhichoptionwillgetyouthemostvalueinthelongterm,
becauseitshowswhathasthemostbalancebetweenprobabilityofbeingchosenandworth.
Sometimestheoptionwiththeleastamountofprobabilityofbeingchosencanstillwina
gamebecauseithasanoverallgreatervalue.

Evaluation:
Ithinkitisreallyintriguinghowtocalculatethevalueanoptionoffers.Ialwayswondered
howtoknowhowaoptionwithalowprobabilitywonagamebybeinglandedonafewtimes
butyieldingagreatervalue.Afterthisunit,Ihavelearnedhowtocalculatetheoreticaland
observedweightedprobability.Inowknowthedifferencebetweenregularprobabilityand
weightedprobability,isthatprobabilityisthechanceofaspecificoccurrenceandweighted
probabilityisthechanceofanoccurrencethatyieldsthemostvalue.(weightedprobability
takesinaccountanotherfactor,value)BeforeIdidntreallyhaveadefinedknowledgeofwhat
probabilityandweightedprobabilityare.Iknewhowtoidentifythemandcalculatethem
prettyeasily,butnowthisconcepthasanameandIamabletofullyunderstanditand
probablyevenexplainorteachittosomeoneelse.Thiswordproblemhelpedmebecome
moreorganizedinmymath.Ihadtotakeaparteachkeywordanddefineit.WhenIwas
recordingmywork,IhadtobeneatandlabeleachstepsoIwouldknowthedifference
betweenregularandweightprobabilityortheoreticalandobservedprobability.Ithinkitwasa
veryeasytopictocatchonto,givenmypreviousknowledge.EventhoughIdontremember
learningthisexacttopic,itfeltlikereviewasIhadalmostaninstinctonhowtoapproachthe
problem.Overall,Ihadagreatexperiencereviewingthisinterestingtopic.