Samsubar SALEH

INSTITUTION : FEB-UGM-ECONOMICS
WORK EXPERIENCE:

1. DIRECTOR OF MASTER & Ph.D PROGRAM FEB-UGM.

2. DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT EC FEB-UGM
3. CONSULTANT OF BAPPEDA DIY PROVINCE.
4. BSNP SUPERVISOR OF EDUCATION MINISTRY.
5. LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE CONSULTANT.
6. DEPUTY OF RESEARCH & TRAINING PROGRAM FEB.
7. MEMBER OF ACADEMIC AUDITOR UGM.
8. SECRETARY OF ECONOMICS PROGRAM FEB-UGM.
9. RESEARCHER OF INDONESIAN EC REVIEW & OUTLOOK.
10. INSTRUCTOR OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE.
HP =0811253224, EMAIL = ssamsubar@yahoo.com

REGULATIONS
1. PLEASE COME BEFORE CLASS STARTED.
2. PLEASE TURN-OFF YOUR MOBILE PHONE.
3. YOU MUST BRING YOUR CALCULATOR.
4. DONT MAKE ANY OTHER ASSIGNMENTS DURING
THE CLASS ACTIVITY.
5. YOU MUST DO THE QUESTION WHENEVER ONE
OF YOUR FRIENDS ASK FOR YOU TO DO SO.
6. YOU MUST ATTEND THE CLASS AT LEAST 80%.
7. THERE WILL BE NO MAKE UP EXAM AND QUIZ.
8. PLEASE BE HONEST. PLEASE GIVE YOUR
SIGNATURE ONLY ON YOUR NAME NOT FOR
ANYBODY ELSE!

Text-books

1. Douglass, Lind and Marchal: STATISTICS

FOR BUSINESS DECISION.
2. Wonnacott, Wonnacott :STATISTICS.
3. Samsubar: Statistik Deskriptif
Statistik Induktif
Aplikasi Statistik dalam Bisnis

WEEK: 1.

STATISTICS

A COLLECTION OR A SET OF NUMERICAL

INFORMATION FROM SAMPLE IS CALLED
STATISTICS.
2.
DATA CAN BE COLLECTED FROM POPULATION
( THE ENTIRE SET OF INDIVIDUALS OR
OBJECTS OF INTEREST ). ( PARAMETER ).
3. STATISTICS IS THE SCIENCE OF COLLECTING,
ORGANIZING, PRESENTING & INTERPRETING
DATA TO ASSIST IN MAKING MORE EFFECTIVE
DECISION.
1.

STATISTICS vs PARAMETER
PARAMETER
AVERAGE

STATISTICS
X

VARIANCE

S2

STD DEV

PROPORTION

BASIC-CONCEPTS

WHY SAMPLING?
SAMPLING ERROR
NON-SAMPLING ERROR
VALIDITY
REABILITY

DESCRIPTIVE vs INFERENTIAL

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS IS A METHODS OF

ORGANIZING, TABULATING, SUMMARIZING,
PRESENTING, ANALYZING, INTERPRETING
DATA IN AN INFORMATIVE WAY.

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS IS THE METHODS

USED TO DETERMINE SOMETHING ABOUT
CHARACTERISTICS OF A POPULATION ON
THE BASIS OF A SAMPLE OR TO INFER
SOMETHING ABOUT A POPULATION. X CAN
BE USED TO ESTIMATE THE .

TYPES OF DATA

1.TIMES-SERIES
2. CROSS-SECTION
3. PANEL ( POOLING-DATA )
4. PRIMARY DATA
5. SECONDARY DATA

VARIABLES & LEVELS OF

MEASUREMENT

QUALITATIVE OR ATTRIBUTE: CHARACTERISTIC OF

THE DATA IS NONNUMERIC: GENDER, EYE COLOR,
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION ETC.
QUANTITATIVE :CHARACTERISTIC OF THE DATA IS
NUMERIC: NUMBER OF CHILDREN IN A FAMILY,
TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY IN THE ECONOMY.
LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT: NOMINAL (THERE IS NO
PARTICULAR ORDER) , ORDINAL ( DATA ARE RANKED
OR ORDERED ACCORDING TO THE PARTICULAR
TRAIT THEY POSSES.
INTERVAL: IQ, TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY.
RATIO: NUMBER OF PEOPLE GOES TO HOSPITAL PER
ANNUM, NUMBER OF HOURS STUDENTS STUDY PER
DAY.

CONSTRUCTING A FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION

STEP 1. DECIDE ON THE NUMBER OF CLASSES BY

USING THE FORMULA 2k > N or 1 + 3.3 log N.
STEP 2. DETERMINE THE CLASS INTERVAL OR
WIDTH: ci = ( HIGHEST LOWEST ): k.
STEP 3. SET THE CLASS LIMITS AND COUNT THE
NUMBER OF ITEMS ( FREQUENCIES ) IN EACH
CLASS.
STEP 4. DETERMINE CLASS BOUNDARIES, THE
MIDPOINTS, CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION ( UPPER AND BELOW THE CLASS
BOUNDARIES).

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

UNGROUPED DATA:
MEAN = Xi / N
MEDIAN: LOCATION OF MEDIAN : (N + 1) : 2,
THEN FIND THE MEDIAN.
MODE: FIND THE LARGEST FREQUENCY.
EXAMPLE : THE TOEFL SCORE OF 8 MASTER
MANAGEMENT STUDENTS CAN BE SEEN AS
FOLLOW: 524, 535, 545, 525, 516, 530, 535, 540.
CALCULATE: THE MEAN, MEDIAN AND MODE.

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

GROUPED DATA :
MEAN = ( F.M / N )
MEDIAN = LCB + ( N/2 - FCL ) x Ci
( FCU - FCL )
FCU FCL = THE FREQUENCY OF MEDIAN

. MODE = LCB + ( d1 ) / ( d1 + d2 ) x Ci.

. THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF THE MEAN,
MEDIAN AND MODE: SYMMETRIC, SKEWED
TO THE RIGHT OR LEFT.

APPLICATION

THE FOLLOWING SCORES WERE MADE BY

PROF x ACCOUNTING STUDENTS ON A
TEST:
68
52
49
56
69
74
40
59
79
81
43
57
60
88
87
47
65
55
68
65
50
78
61
90
83
65
66
72
63
94
COMPUTE: THE MEAN, MEDIAN & MODE.

SKEWNESS
COUNTRIES: A
B
C
INCOME:
MEAN
$ 1100 $ 1000 $ 1200
MEDIAN
1100
1100 1100
MODE
1100
1200 1000
Std dev
25
30
40

SK = 3 ( MEAN MEDIAN ) / STD DEV.

GEOMETRIC MEAN

GM IS VERY USEFUL IN FINDING THE AVERAGE

OF PERCENTAGES, RATIOS, INDEXES OR
GROWTH RATE.

(x1)(x2) or n(x1)(x2) (xn)

n (VALUE AT THE END PERIOD : VALUE AT START OF PERIOD) - 1

EXAMPLE
1.

2.

3.

SUPPOSE LABOUR RECEIVE A 10 PERCENT

INCREASE IN WAGE THIS YEAR AND A 15
PERCENT INCREASE NEXT YEAR. HOW MUCH
THE AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN WAGE?
THE RETURN ON DEPOSIT EARNED BY BNI FOR
5 SUCCESSIVE YEARS WAS: 10%, 12%, 17%, - 5%,
50 %. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURN
ON DEPOSIT?
TOTAL ASSETS OF X COMPANY IN 1995 WAS $
1300 M. IN 2005, THE AMOUNT OF TOTAL ASSETS
WAS NEARLY TO $ 1750 M. WHAT IS THE
AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ITS ASSETS?

Week 2.

Measures of Locality

UNGROUPED DATA.

QUARTILES : LQ1 = ( N + 1 )/ 4, LQ2 = 2 ( N +1)/4

LQ3 = 3 ( N + 1 )/4.
DECILES: LD1 = ( N + 1 )/10 ,LD9 = 9 ( N + 1 )/10
PERCENTILES: LP1 = ( N + 1 )/100,.
LP99 = 99( N + 1 )/100.
EXAMPLE:TOEFL SCORES OF 8 STUDENTS:
516 524 525 530 535 535 540 545.
CALCULATE THE SCORES: Q3, D4, D7, P80.

WEEK: 2. MEASURES OF LOCALITY GROUPED DATA

1. QUARTILES: THE DISTRIBUTION OF DATA IS
DIVIDED INTO FOUR PARTS, EACH PART IS EQUAL
TO 25 %.
LQ1 = N/4,
LQ2 = 2N/4
LQ3 = 3N/4
Qi = LCB + ( LQi FCL ) / ( FCU FCL ) x Ci
2. DECILES: THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE DATA IS
DIVIDED INTO 10 PARTS, EACH PART IS EQUAL TO
10 %.
3. PERCENTILES: THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE DATA IS
DIVIDED INTO 100 PARTS, EACH PART IS EQUAL TO
1 %.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF SCORES IN A TEST

SCORES

40 50

51 61

67
72.5

73 83

78
83.5

84 94

94.5
CALCULATE: Q1 , D6,

21

12

56
61.5

62 72

FCLT
0

45
50.5

CB
39.5

26

89
30
P90 AND D2.

: coefficient of variation

FM

FM 2

DISPERSION

DISPERSION CAN BE USED TO MEASURE

THE VARIABILITY OF THE DATA OR TO
MEASURE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE VALUE OF EACH OBSERVATION AND
ITS AVERAGE VALUE.
IN OUR DAILY LIFE THIS METHOD CAN BE
USED TO INSPECT THE QUALITY CONTROL,
OF PRODUCT, TO HANDLE RISK, TO KNOW
THE EQUALITY DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME,
TO DETECT THE LIMIT OF POLUTANTS.

EXAMPLE
STUDENT
CLASS:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

SCORES IN STATISTICS TEST

A
B
C
62
100
60
60
20
60
58
95
60
61
25
60
59
90
60
60
30
60
61
85
60
59
35
60

MEAN SCORES:
60
60
60
- CAN YOU EXPLAIN SOMETHING ABOUT THE SCORES ABOVE?
- IN WHICH CLASS THE SHAPE OF THE DATA IS FLATTER?

EXAMPLE
THE FLUCTUATION OF STOCK PRICES DURING THE
LAST 5 DAYS OFFERED BY 3 COMPANIES IN JAKARTA
STOCK MARKET IS AS FOLLOW:

DAY
COMPANY A
B
C
1
$ 30
$ 130
$ 50
2
32
80
50
3
29
150
50
4
31
100
50
5
33
200
50
IF YOU ARE A BROKER IN THE STOCK MARKET WHICH
ONE IS THE BEST FOR INVESTMENT? WHY?

DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

INCOME NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES: A

$ 300 399
400 499
500 599
600 699
700 799
800 - 899

6
8
11
13
8
4

B
8
10
10
13
11
8

CAN YOU FIND IN WHICH COMPANY HAS MORE

EQUAL DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME? A OR B? WHY?

QUALITY CONTROL

DISTRIBUTION OF LIFETIME 3 BRAND OF DRY

BATTERIES PRODUCED BY ABC MANUFACTURE IN
CAKUNG JAKARTA.

BRAND: A
BRAND: B BRAND: C
Xi
1800 H
1450 H
1500 H
( Xi X )2 150 H
60 H
160 H
SAMPLE 15 UNITS
10 UNITS
11 UNITS
(n)
WHICH BRAND IS BETTER THAN THE OTHER?
Use coefficient of variation formula

ABSOLUTE DISPERSION
THE MOST COMMON MEASURES OF ABSOLUTE
DISPERSION ARE: RANGE, MEAN DEVIATION,
STANDARD DEVIATION AND VARIANCE.
A. UNGROUPED DATA: ( POPULATION )
VARIANCE = 2 = ( Xi u )2 / N
STD DEVIATION = SQUARE ROOT OF VARIANCE OR
= ( Xi u ) 2 / N
B. UNGROUPED DATA ( SAMPLE )
VARIANCE = S2 = ( Xi X )2 /( n 1 )
STD DEVIATION = S = SQUARE ROOT OF VARIANCE.

ABSOLUTE DISPERSION
GROUPED DATA
VARIANCE = ( FM2 / N ) - ( FM/N )2
STD DEVIATION = VARIANCE
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ABSOLUTE DISPERSION CAN
NOT BE USED TO MAKE DECISION BECAUSE UNIT OF ACCOUNT
IN EACH VARIABLE ARE NOT THE SAME.
1. EXAMPLE: STANDARD DEVIATION OF INCOME IN COMPANY A =
$100, WHILE STANDARD DEVIATION OF HEIGHT = 5,3 INCHES
(CAN WE EVEN LOGICALLY COMPARE $ AND INCHES? ).
2. STD DEV OF WAGES IN COMPANY A = $ 100, STD DEV OF WAGES
IN COMPANY B = $ 200. CAN YOU CONCLUDE THAT THE
DISTRIBUTION WITH THE $200 STD DEV HAS TWICE THE
VARIABILITY OF THE ONE WITH THE $ 100 STD DEV?
3. WHAT IS NEEDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES IS A MEASURE
OF THE DEGREE OF RELATIVE DISPERSION THAT EXISTS IN THE
DISTRIBUTION BEING STUDIED.

RELATIVE DISPERSION

THE MOST POPULAR MEASURE OF RELATIVE

DISPERSION IS THE COEFFICIENT OF
VARIATION ( CV ).

CV = ( STD DEV / MEAN ) x 100 %.