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Sinking coastal cities

A research agenda towards solutions for subsiding delta cities


Gilles Erkens Deltares Research Institute | Utrecht University
Tom Bucx Deltares Research Institute
Rien Dam - WaterLand Experts | Deltares Research Institute
Ger de Lange Deltares Research Institute
John Lambert Deltares Research Institute

Land subsidence: why bother?

Main messages:
- Land subsidence outranges climate-driven sea level rise
- Most of the problematic land subsidence is human-induced
- Solutions are available and need to be found locally
26 april 2014

Main factors causing subsidence


Natural causes (geological processes):
l

Loading of the earths crust by ice sheets, sediment (deltas),


the ocean/sea
Compaction of older sediments after sedimentation

Anthropogenic causes (human-induced processes):


l

Oil/gas extraction (usually relatively deep)

Groundwater extraction (usually moderately deep)

Drainage of soils oxidation of peat, soil compaction

Why discriminating between human-induced and natural


processes?
l

Magnitude

Cooping strategy (mitigation versus adaptation)

26 april 2014

9m
land
subsidence
between
1925-1977
(52 years)
~ 17.3 cm/y

Land subsidence vs absolute sea-level rise

26 april 2014

The sinking cities assessment


A quick subsidence assessment for mega-cities:
Jakarta, Ho-Chi-Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans, Bangkok
1. How much subsidence is there?
2. What is causing subsidence?

DHAKA

NEW ORLEANS

3. How much subsidence is predicted? JAKARTA


4. What impact has subsidence?

HCMC

5. Who is responsible?

BANGKOK

6. What are solutions?

TOKYO
26 april 2014

The assessment aims to:


Get insight in the
processes
To obtain a research
agenda for this topic
To list best practice
cases for others to
learn

Impacts of land subsidence


1) Flooding

2) Damage to structures

26 april 2014

What can we do?

Mitigation for human-induced land subsidence


> Diminish pumping, aquifer storage recovery, use lighter building materials
Adaptation for natural and remaining human-induced land subsidence
> reintroducing sediment in deltas, build higher levees
> Non-technical: better spatial planning, governmental embedding
26 april 2014

What can the geology community provide?


1. In-situ measurements
2. Better subsurface models and maps
3. Advising on solutions: geology-based spatial planning

1 Level (m)

8. Aquifer 1

1
-4

Layers
7. Aquitard 1

6. Aquifer 2
5. Aquitard 2
4. Aquifer 3

3. Aquitard 3
2. Aquifer 4

-59
-69

1. Aquitard 4

5
-119
-129

4
3

-169
-179

-249

26 april 2014

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