INSIGHT

March12,2015

Fertilizerofftake

Chemicals

Urea&DAPofftakedownby4%and67%MoMinFeb15
As per the provisional numbers available with Taurus Research, country Urea sales UREA
have declined by 28% MoM to 452k tons in Feb15 mainly because of low imported 000'stons
Ureasales.However,onyearonyearbasis,Ureasalesarelikelytoremainupby20%. FFC
Similarly,11%MoMfallisexpectedinDAPsalesto46ktonswhichischieflyblamed EFERT
tolowimportedDAPsalesbyFFC.Onyearonyearbasis,Feb15DAPsalesareesti FFBL
Fatima
matedtofallby18%.
NFML

On company wise basis, Urea sales of FFC, EFERT and FATIMA went down by Total
21%/13%/22% MoM, during Feb15 to 184k/145k/30k tons, respectively. However,
DAWHandFFBLplantremainedidleowingtononavailabilityofgaswhileUreasales DAP
byNFML(ImportedUrea)witnessedasharpfallof50%to93ktons.OnDAPofftake 000'stons
front,lowersalesbyFFC(importedDAP)mitigatedforthe3%MoMhigherFFBLsales FFC
ENGRO
to29ktonsand68%moreEngrosalesto17ktons.
FFBL

Feb14 Jan15 Feb15

YoY

MoM

168

232

184

9%

21%

161

167

145

10%

13%

16

39

32
378

NM

NM

30

84%

22%

187

93

187%

50%

628

452

20%

28%

Feb14 Jan15 Feb15

YoY

MoM

14

NM

NM

32

10

17

45%

68%

25

28

29

By the end of Feb15, industry inventory levels are likely to remain at 119k tons for Total
57 52 46
Ureaand99ktons.
Source:Industry,TSLResearch

16%

3%

18%

11%

2MCY15:Ureasalesup9%to1.1mntons
Thanksto15%higherFFCUreasalesto416ktonsand65%moreFATIMAsalesto69ktons,9%
improvementinoverallUreasalesto1.1mntonsisexpectedin2MFY15.Asaresult,marketshare
of FFC & FATIMA would have increased by 3ppsand 1pps to 39% and6%, respectively. Further,
importedUreasalesalsoincreasedby10%to280ktons,takingNFMLmarketsharefrom25%in
2MCY14to26%2MCY15.However,ontheotherside,EFERTUreasaleswouldhavedeclinedby
7%to336ktonsin2MCY15.

2MCY15:DAPsalesup34%to171ktons
During 2MCY15, FFBL salesmay have surged by a healthy 52% to 57k tons while imported DAP
sales by FFC, ENGRO and other players would have increased by 26% to 115k tons. Resultantly,
country DAP offtake is likely to increaseby 34% to 171k tons whilemarket share of FFBL would
increaseby4ppsto33%.
InFeb15,FFBLsaleswereup3%MoMto29ktonswhileENGROwitnessed68%MoMupsurgein
salesto17ktons.
UREA

TSLResearch

000'stons

2MCY14

2MCY15

YoY

Share

ClosingInv.

FFC

361

416

15%

39% 20

EFERT

336

312

7%

29%

FFBL

NM

0%

6%

Fatima

42

69

65%

NFML

254

280

10%

Others

64%

0%

Total

998

1,081

8%

100%

119

26% 91

DAP
000'stons
FFC

2MCY14
1

YoY

Share

14

2MCY15

NM

8%

ClosingInv.

ENGRO

38

28

27%

16% 18

TaurusResearch

FFBL

37

57

52%

33% 16

research@taurus.com.pk

Others

53

73

39%

43% 66

Direct:+922135216403

Total

128

171

34%

100% 99

Source:Industry,TSLResearch

DISCLAIMER:Theaboveinformationandadviceisgiveningoodfaith,withoutanylegalresponsibility.TaurusSecuritiesLimitedorindividualscon
nectedwithitmayhaveusedresearchmaterialbeforepublicationandmayhavepositionsinormaybeinterestedinthesecuritiesmentionedherein.