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CASE STUDIES
FORECASTING ATTENDANCE AT SWU FOOTBALL GAMES
1. Because we are interested in annual attendance and there are six years of data, we find the
average attendance in each year shown in the table below. A graph of this indicates a linear
trend in the data. Using Trend Analysis in the forecasting module of QM for Windows we find
the equation:
Y = 31,660 + 2,305.714X
Where Y is attendance and X is the time period (X = 1 for 2005, 2 for 2006, etc.).
For this model, r2 = 0.98 which indicates this model is very accurate.

Attendance in 2011 is projected to be

Y = 31,660 + 2,305.714(7) = 47,800
Attendance in 2012 is projected to be
Y = 31,660 + 2,305.714(8) = 50,105
At this rate, the stadium, with a capacity of 54,000, will be maxed out (filled to capacity) in
2014.
Year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Attendance

34840

35380

38520

40500

43320

45820

2. Based upon the projected attendance and tickets prices of $20 in 2011 and $21 (a 5%
increase) in 2012, the projected revenues are:
47,800(20) = $956,000 in 2010 and
50,105(21) = $1,052,205 in 2012.
3. The school might consider another expansion of the stadium, or raise the ticket prices more
than 5% per year. Another possibility is to raise the prices of the best seats while leaving the
end zone prices more reasonable.
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FORECASTING MONTHLY SALES

1.

The scatter plot of the data shows a definite seasonal pattern with higher sales in the winter
months and lower sales in the summer and fall months. There is a slight upward trend as
evidenced by the fact that for each month, the sales increased from the first year to the second,
and again form the second year to the third.

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2. A trend line based on the raw data is found to be:

Y = 330.889 1.162X
The slope of the trend line is negative which would indicate that sales are declining over time.
However, as previously noted, sales are increasing. The high seasonal index in January and
February causes the trend line on the unadjusted data to appear to have a negative slope.
3. There is a definite seasonal pattern and a definite trend in the data. Using the decomposition
method in QM for Windows, the trend equation (based on the deseasonalized data) is
Y = 294.069 + 0.859X
The table below gives the seasonal indices, the unadjusted forecasts found using the trend line,
and the final (adjusted) forecasts for the next year.
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Unadjusted forecast
325.852
326.711
327.57
328.429
329.288
330.147
331.006
331.865
332.724
333.583
334.442
335.301

Seasonal index
1.447
1.393
1.379
1.074
1.039
0.797
0.813
0.720
0.667
0.747
0.891
1.033

Adjusted forecast
471.5
455.1
451.7
352.7
342.1
263.1
269.1
238.9
221.9
249.2
298.0
346.4

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