i

B
_

G
I

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C

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O

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_

N
G

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I

H
_
C

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I

G
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T
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_
N
G

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G
H
I

_
U

K
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A

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V
I

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H

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0
1
0

N
G

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:

N
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D
N
G

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O
N
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_
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ii

TMT_T_TI
1.Ldoch_n_tinghinc_u

Hinnayvicxc_nhgitr_doanhnghipl1vicvcngquantr_ngvcnthi_t,nh_tl
trongqutrnhmuabnsp_nhpdoanhnghipdi_nram_nhm_nhhinnay.

_xc_nhgitr_doanhnghiptacth_d_atrn_rtnhi_unh_ngphngphpnh
phngphptis_n,phngphpchi_tkh_udngti_n,phngphptichnhm_i
phngphp_ucnh_ngui_mcngnhnh_ngh_nch_trongvic_ngd_ng.

Phngphpchi_tkh_udngti_nlphngphpm_ivhinnay cs!d_ngkh
nhi_u_xc_nhragitr_c"adoanhnghip.Tuynhin_xc_nh cgitr_c"adoanh
nghiptheophngphpchi_tkh_udngti_nthvicquantr_ngltaph_iitm c
t#su_tchi_tkh_uvy ccoilb _cvcngquantr_ngtrongvicxc

_nhgidoanhnghip.Vicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ulvicph_ct_pvkhkhnnh_t

l%th_tr &ngVitNamkhimccthngtintrnth_tr &ngkhng cminhb_chv

hth'ngthngkchahonthin.aphnvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uldothng

lngho(ckinhnghimc"ang &ith)m_nhvin.

Hi_u cv_trvtmquantr_ngc"axc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u'iv_igitr_doanh
nghip,dov_ytcgi_quy_t_nhch_n_tinghinc_u*ngd_ngccmhnhtichnh
trongvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uchoccdoanhnghip

2.M_cchnghin_cu

Nuphngphp"canhcchxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh)uc"adoanhnghip(r)Xyd
_ngmhnht#su_tchi_tkh_uphhpv_it+nghnhth_cdoanhnghip.*ngd_ngcc
mhnhvoth_ct_doanhnghip.

.Binghinc_ucth_lmtiliuthamkh_oh_uchchonh_ngnghinc_uv_hs'beta,
t#su_tchi_tkh_uvgitr_doanhnghiptrongnghinc_uti_ptheo.

Lngu,ntiliuthamkh_ochoccth)m_nhvictrongvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u
trongvic_nhgidoanhnghipbnngoith_ct_.

iii

3._it _ngvph_mvinghin_cu

_it _ngnghin_cu

'itngnghinc_utrongbil

Hs'betac"adoanhnghip.

T#su_tchi_tkh_udoanhnghip.

Gitr_c"adoanhnghip.

Ph_mvinghin_cu

Ph_mvinghinc_ulnh_ngcngtyangho_t-ngtrnsngiaod_chch_ngkhon
vcccngtychalnsngiaod_chch_ngkhon_tith_tr &ngVitNam.

4.Phngphpnghin_uc

_ph_cv_chom_cchnghinc_uthtcgi_ s!d_ngccmhnhsau:

Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_CAPM)

Lthuy_tmhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM)

Lthuy_tv_s_k_thpgi_amhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&M

5.N_idungphntch

N-idungcb_nc"abinghinc_ulphntchvxyd_ngccmhnhxc_nht#su_t
phhpchot+ngdoanhnghip.,ngth&i_ngd_ngccmhnhvoth_ct_ccdoanhnghi
p.Trongbitcgi_s!d_ngd_liuc"acngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica)_
_ngd_ngccmhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uvphntchxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u
phhpv_icngty,ngth&i_nhgicngty.

6.H _ngphttri_nc_a_ti

K_tqu_phntch

'iv_imhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ukhcnhauth_schota1t#su_tchi_tkh_u
khcnhau.

MhnhCAPMlmhnhtichnh ngi_ns_th_chintuynhinmhnhnyl_id_a
trnqunhi_unh_nggi_ _nhvvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ucnph_ickinhnghim,
cni_uch0nhhs'beta_k_tqu_ _ctnh ct'thn.MhnhCAPMthchhp'iv_i
ccdoanhnghiplnsntrongkho_ngth&igiant+13nm.

iv

Vicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_utheomhnhAPMih1ils'liu uvoph_i
nhi_uhn,s!d_ngph_ct_phnccmhnhCAPMvCAPMk_thpv_ilthuy_t
M&M.Tuynhinvicxc_nhtheomhnhAPMthk_tqu_xttrnphngdinl
thuy_ttht'thnccmhnhcnl_ivnol &ng cnhi_unhnt'r"irohn.M
hnhAPMphhpccdoanhnghiplnsntrongkho_ngth&igiantrn3nm.

MhnhCAPMk_thpv_ilthuy_tM&Mthlmhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u
r_tt'tnh_tl'iv_iccdoanhnghipcha_ cnimy_ttrnsngiaod_chch_ngkhon
tuynhinthvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_utheomhnhnyth &ngth_phnccm
hnhkhc

Gitr_c"acngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica)t_ith&ii_m31/12/2009theo
nhmhnhchi_tkh_udngc.t_c(DDM)l549t#489triu,ng.

Tuynhintrongbinghin_cucncnh_ngh_nch_nhsau:

Binghinc_um_ich0 _ctnht#su_tchi_tkh_u1doanhnghipn_unhcthmth&i
giantcgi_s_ _ctnhthmccdoanhnghipkhcn_a.Dovich_nch_v_m(ts'liunn
cnm-ts'ccnhnt'vmkhccha cvotrongmhinhAPMnht'c-tngtr %ng
GDP,Ch0s'b_t-ngs_n,ch0s'ni_mtin,ch0s'th_pnghip,Bnc_nhvicxc_nh
t#su_tchi_tkh_utheo3mhnhtrnthhinnaycncccmhnhkhcn_amtcgi_
khng_c_plmhnhphntchnhnt';mhnhCAPManhnt';mhnhdanh
m_c uthiuqu_c"aMarkowitz.ylnh_ngh_nch_c"a_tivycngcth_
lnh_ngh _ngt'tchonh_ngnghin_cuti_ptheov_t#su_tchi_tkh_udoanhnghip.

MCLC
tv!n_nghin_cu........................................................................................Trang1

1.Ldoch_n_ti...............................................................................................Trang1

2.M_cchnghinc_u.........................................................................................Trang1

3.'itngvph_mvinghinc_u.....................................................................Trang2

4.Phngphpnghin_cu...................................................................................Trang2

5.C_utrcd_ki_nbinghinc_u.......................................................................Trang2

CHNG1LTHUY_TV_DOANHNGHI_P

VT_SU_TCHI_TKH_U......................................................Trang3

1.1Lthuy_tv_doanhnghipvgitr_doanhnghip........................................Trang3

1.1.1Lthuy_tv_doanhnghip........................................................................Trang3

1.1.2Lthuy_tv_gitr_doanhnghip.............................................................Trang3

1.2Lthuy_tv_t#su_tsinhl&i,r"irovt#su_tchi_tkh_u...............................Trang3

1.2.1T#su_tsinhl&i..........................................................................................Trang3

1.2.2R"irovol &ngr"iro...........................................................................Trang4

1.2.3T#su_tchi_tkh_u.....................................................................................Trang7

1.3T.ngquanv_ccmhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u..................................Trang8

1.3.1Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_CAPM)........Trang8

1.3.2Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM)....Trang15

1.3.3K_thpmhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(CAPM)vlthuy_tc

c_uv'nModigliani&Miller(M&M)........................................................Trang17

1.4T.ngquanv_ccphngphpth)m_nhgitr_doanhnghip....................Trang20

vi

1.4.1Phngphptis_n..................................................................................

Trang20
1.4.2Phngphplith_thngm_i...............................................................

Trang20
1.4.3Phngphpsosnh_thtr &ng(P/E).....................................................

Trang22
1.4.4Phngphpchi_tkh_udngti_n............................................................

Trang22
1.4.5Phngphpgi_trkinht_giatng(EAV)

vthunh_pgitr_cnl_i............................................................................

Trang24

CHNG2KHUNGPHNTCH...............................

...................................Trang26
2.1
Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(CAPM)...........................................................

Trang26
2.2
Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(APM)....................................

.............Trang26
2.3
K_thpmhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(CAPM)

vlthuy_tcc_uv'nModigliani&Miller(M&M)
...................................

Trang28
CHNG3_NGDNGCCMHNHTICHNHXC
NH

T_SU_TCHI_TKH_UVGITRCNGTYC#PH$N

BNHK%OBIBICA....................................................................

Trang29
3.1
Phntchcngtyc.phnbnhk/oBibica....................................................

Trang29
3.1.1T.ngquanv_cngtyc.phnbnhk/oBibica.......................................

Trang29
3.1.2Phntchmitr &ngc_nhtranhc"acngty..........................................

.Trang34
3.1.3Phntchtichnh......................
..............................................................Trang36
3.2
Xc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uc"acngty..........................................

................Trang44
3.2.1Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(CAPM).....................................................

Trang44
3.2.2Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(APM)....................................

.......Trang47
3.2.3K_thpgi_amhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&M....................................

Trang50

vii

3.3
Xc_nhgitr_c"acngtyc.phnbnhk/oBibicab3ngmhnh

chi_tkh_udngc.t_c...................................................................................
Trang52
3.3.1 _ctnht#llinhu_ngi_l_ivt'c-tngtr %nglinhu_n..............
Trang52
3.3.2D_bo'tc-tngtr %ngv'nch"s%h_u...............................................
Trang53
3.3.3D_bo'tc-tngtr %nglinhu_nsau3nm.......................................
Trang54
3.3.4 _ctnhdngc.t_c cchiahngnm..............................................
Trang54
3.3.5Phntch-nh_yc"at#su_tchi_ukh_u'iv_igitr_doanhnghip..
Trang55
CHNG4K_TLU&NVCCKI_NNGH _XU_T........................
Trang57
4.1
K_tlu_n..........................................................................................................
Trang57
4.2
Ccki_nngh_ _xu_t......................................................................................

Trang58
4.3
H_nch_c"a_ti...........................................................................................
Trang59

Danhm_ctili'uthamkh(o..........................................................................Trang1

Ph_l_c...............................................................................................................Trang4

Ph_l_c1............................................................................................................Trang4

Ph_l_c2............................................................................................................Trang7

Ph_l_c3............................................................................................................Trang12

Ph_l_c4............................................................................................................Trang17

Ph_l_c5............................................................................................................Trang22

viii

MCLCCCHNHV
)TH
Hnh3.1S,b-myqu_nlc"acngtyc.phnBibica
................................

Trang33
Hnh3.2Bi_u,doanhthuc"acngtytronggiaio_n2005................2009
Trang37
Hnh3.3Bi_u,linhu_nsauthu_c"acngty20052009...........................
Trang39
Hnh3.4Bi_u,cc_utis_nc"acngtygiaio_n2008......................2009
Trang40
Hnh3.5Bi_u,cc_ungu,nv'nc"acngtytronggiai......o_n20082009
Trang41
Hnh3.6
Bi_u,t#su_tsinhlich_ngkhonBibica(BBC)v

t#su_tsinhlic"aVNindextheothng(01/2006.............12/2009)
Trang45
Hnh3.7
K_tqu_h,iquyt#su_tsinhlic"aBBCtheoch0........s'VNindex
Trang45

Hnh3.8
K_tqu_ _clngt#su_tsinhlic"aBBCv_icc......nhnt'vm
Trang48
Hnh3.9
K_tqu_ _clngcu'icngt#su_tsinhlic"aBBC

v_iccnhnt'vm..............................................................................

Trang49
Hnh3.10Bi_u,v'nch"s%h_u20052009.....................................................

Trang53

ix

DANHMCB_NGVI_TT_T

STT
Khi'u
ngha

APM
Arbitragepricingmodel(Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi)

BBC
Cngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica)

CAPM
Capitalassetpricingmodel(Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n)

VCSH
V'nch"s%h_u

DCF
DiscountCashFlow(Chi_tkh_udngti_n)

DDM
DividendDiscountModel(Mhnhchi_tkh_udngc.t_c)

DMDT
Danhm_cut

EVA
EconomicValueAdded(Gitr_kinht_giatng)

FCFE
FreeCashFlowtoEquity(Ngnlut_doc"av'nch"s%h_u)

10

FCFF
FreeCashFlowtoFirm(Ngnlut_doc"adoanhnghip)

11

Goodwill
Lith_thngm_i

12

M&M
Lthuy_tcc_uv'n(Modigliani&Miller)

13

OLS
Leastsquares(Phngphph,iquysais'bnhphngnh1nh_t)

14

RBBC
T#su_tchi_tkh_uc"aBibica

15

SLCP
S'lngc.phi_u

16

TTCK
Th_tr &ngch_ngkhon

17

USD
,nglam4

18

VND
nv_ti_ntVitNam

19

Hs'beta

,TV_N_NGHINC_U
1.Ldoch_n_tinghinc_u

Hinnayvicxc_nhgitr_doanhnghipl1vicvcngquantr_ngvcnthi_t,nh_tl
trongqutrnhmuabnsp_nhpdoanhnghipdi_nram_nhm_nhhinnay.

_xc_nhgitr_doanhnghiptacth_d_atrn_rtnhi_unh_ngphngphpnh
phngphptis_n,phngphpchi_tkh_udngti_n,phngphptichnhm_i
phngphp_ucnh_ngui_mcngnhnh_ngh_nch_trongvic_ngd_ng.

Phngphpchi_tkh_udngti_nlphngphpm_ivhinnay cs!d_ngkh
nhi_u_xc_nhragitr_c"adoanhnghip.Tuynhin_xc_nh cgitr_c"adoanh
nghiptheophngphpchi_tkh_udngti_nthvicquantr_ngltaph_iitm c
t#su_tchi_tkh_uvy ccoilb _cvcngquantr_ngtrongvicxc

_nhgidoanhnghip.Vicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ulvicph_ct_pvkhkhnnh_t

l%th_tr &ngVitNamkhimccthngtintrnth_tr &ngkhng cminhb_chv

hth'ngthngkchahonthin.aphnvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uldothng

lngho(ckinhnghimc"ang &ith)m_nhvin.

Hi_u cv_trvtmquantr_ngc"axc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u'iv_igitr_doanh
nghip,dov_ytcgi_quy_t_nhch_n_tinghinc_u*ngd_ngccmhnhtichnh
trongvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uchoccdoanhnghip

2.M_cchnghin_cu

Tcgi_th_chin_tinyv_iccm_cchnhsau

Trongvic_nhgim_idoanhnghipthth &nghayv _ngm5ctrongv_n_xc_nhht#

su_tchi_tkh_u.Quabinghinc_uthtcgi_mu'nlmrcch _ctnht#s'nychocc
doanhnghipt_iVitNam.

Binghinc_ucth_lmtiliuthamkh_oh_uchchonh_ngnghinc_uv_hs'

beta,t#su_tchi_tkh_uvgitr_doanhnghiptrongnghinc_uti_ptheo.

Lngu,ntiliuthamkh_ochoccth)m_nhvictrongvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u
trongvic_nhgidoanhnghipbnngoith_ct_.

3._it _ngvph_mvinghin_cu

_it _ngnghin_cu

Hs'betac"adoanhnghip.

T#su_tchi_tkh_udoanhnghip.

Gitr_c"adoanhnghip.

Ph_mvinghin_cu

Ph_mvinghinc_ulnh_ngcngtyangho_t-ngtrnsngiaod_chch_ngkhon
vcccngtychalnsngiaod_chch_ngkhon_tith_tr &ngVitNam.

4.Phngphpnghin_uc

K-thu.tthuth.pd/li'u

Cc'slius!d_ngtrong_ti cthuth_pt+nh_ngtrangwebsitecuytn,m_c-tin
c_ycaovccs'liut+cngtyth)m_nhgi.

Phntchd/li'u

_ph_cv_chom_cchnghinc_uthtcgi_ s!d_ngccmhnhsau:

Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_CAPM)

Lthuy_tmhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM)

Lthuy_tv_s_k_thpgi_amhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&M

5.C!utrcd0ki1nc_abinghinc_u

Ngoiphn(tv_n_nghin_cuthk_tc_uc"abicnh_ngphnchnhnhsau:
Chng1:Lthuy_tv_doanhnghipvt#su_tchi_tkh_u

Chng2:Khungphntch.

Chng3:*ngd_ngccmhnhtrongvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uvgitr_cngty
c.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica_BBC).

Chng4:K_tlu_nvccki_nngh_ _xu_t

CHNG1LTHUY_TV_DOANHNGHI_PVT_SU_TCHI_TKH_U

1.1Lthuy1tv_doanhnghi'pvgitr2doanhnghi'p

1.1.1Lthuy1tv_doanhnghi'p

Theolu_tdoanhnghipthc"aVitNam29/11/2005thDoanhnghiplm-tt.

ch_ckinht_ctnring,ctis_nring,ctr_ %giaod_ch.n_nh, cngkkinh

doanhtheoquy_nhc"aphplu_tnh3mth_chinccho_t-ngkinhdoanh.

Theotiuchu)nth)m_nhgiqu'ct_nm2005Doanhnghiplm-tt.ch_c

thngm_icngnghip,d_chv_hay utangtheou.im-tho_t-ngkinht_

Doanhnghipl nv_kinht_ctcchphpnhn,quy_tccphngtintis_nv_t
ch_tvconng &inh3mth_chinccho_t-ngs_nxu_t,cung_ng,tiuth_s_nph)mho(c
d_chv_,trncs%t'iahalichc"ang &itiudng,thngquat'iahalinhu_n
c"ach"s%h_u,,ngth&ik_thpm-tcchhplccm_ctiuxh-i.

1.1.2Lthuy1tgitr2doanhnghi'p

Theotiuchu)nth)m_nhgiqu'ct_nm2005thGitr_doanhnghiptheos.schk_
tonlt.ngtis_nth_hintrnb_ngcn'ik_tonc"adoanhnghipcch_ -k_tonhin

hnh.Gitr_th_ct_c"adoanhnghiplt.nggitr_th_ct_c"atis_nh_uhnhvvhnh
thu-cquy_ns%h_uc"adoanhnghiptnhtheogitr_th_tr &ngth&i

i_mxc_nhgitr_ doanhnghip.

Th)m_nhgidoanhnghiplvic _ctnhgitr_c"adoanhnghiphaylichc"anchom
-tm_cchnh_t_nhb3ngcch!sd_ngccphngphpphhp.

1.2Lthuy1tv_t3su!tsinhl_i,r_irovt3su!tchi1tkh!u

1.2.1T3su!tsinhl4i

T#su_tsinhl&ilquanht#l(th &ngtnhtheo%)gi_as'linhu_nthu cvs'v'nb1

vo uttrong1kh_nnh_t_nh(nm,qu,thng,v.v).T#su_tsinhl&ilh

s' cccnh utr_tquantmkhiquy_tthamgia utvo1d_nhay1knh

ut b_tk no .

G_iPnLm_cgic"ac.phi_unmth_n

Pn1Lm_cgic.phi_unmth_n1

DIVtLc.t_cchitr_vocu'inmn

Nhv_yt#su_tsinhl&ic"ac.phi_uk_trn(re)_s cmhnhhab%icngth_cnh

sau:

re=(PnPn1+DIVn)/(Pn1)

M-tnhutkhiquy_t_nhutth &ngph_ir_t5no,tuynhinthh_th &ngl_a

ch_nr_tnhi_uknhutl_i_gi_mthi_ur"iro.M-tnhutgi1ith &ngbi_tk_thp
ccdanhm_cutkhcnhaunh3mm_cchgi_mthi_unh_ngr"iro(phnr"iro

s_trnhby%phnti_ptheo).

Danhm_cut(portfolio)ls_k_thpc"ahaihaynhi_uch_ngkhonho(ctis_n
trongut.Nhv_y,m-tdanhm_cuts_ctnh_thaikho_nut(hailo_ich_ng
khon).

T#su_tsinhl&ikv_ngc"adanhm_cut cxc_nhtheophngphpbnhqun
giaquy_nc"at#su_tsinhl&ic"accch_ngkhonring7ltrongdanhm_cut.

i
f

i1

Trong

rElt#su_tsinhl&ikv_ngc"am-tdanhm_cut.

ri

lt#su_tsinhl&ikv_ngc"ach_ngkhoni(kho_nuti).

filt#tr_ngc"akho_nutitrongt.ngngu,nv'nc"adanhm_cut.

n:s'ch_ngkhonctrongdanhut.

R_irovol 4ngr_iro

R"irols_sailchc"alinhu_nth_ct_sov_ilinhu_nkv_ng.Nh_ngkho_nutno
ckh_nngcs_sailchcngl_n cxemnhcr"irol_n.

R"iro cxemnhls_khngch5cch5nhays_sailchc"alinhu_nth_ct_sov_ili
nhu_nkv_ng,m-tbi_nc'ckh_nngx_yravcngckh_nngkhngx_yra._
ol &ng(nhgi)" irrong &itas! d_ngphnph 'ixcsu_tv_i2thams' lgitr_ k

v_ngv-lchchu)n

Nhv_ychnhs_khcbitgi_usu_tsinhlith_cv_i su_tsinhlikv_ngchnhlm
r"irovr"iroth &ngol &ngb%iphngsaihay- _clchchu)n.

Gitr_kv_nghayt#su_tsinhl&ikv_ng( )lgitr_trungbnhtnhtheophng
phpbnhqungiaquy_nc"at#su_tsinhl&icth_x_yratrongcctnhhu'ng.

rpi ri

i1

Trong:ri:T#su_tsinhl&ic"akho_n ut%tnhhu'ngipi:Xcsu_ttng_ngv_i
tnhhu'ngi

n:S'tr &nghp(s'tnhhu'ng)cth_x_yra.

R"iro cxemxtthngquavictheodiphnb'xcsu_tc"at#sutsinhl&i.T#su_t
sinhl&icngphntn,bi_n-ngcngl_nthr"irocngcao.

Phngsai( 2)lgitr_trungbnhtnhtheophngphpbnhqunquy_nc"acc
bnhphngc"a-lchgi_agitr_th_ct_sov_igitr_trungbnh.-lchbnhphng
ol &ng-phntnc"aphnph'ixcsu_t.

2Pi(rir)2

i1

Trong:

ri,pi:nhtrn.

:T#su_tsinhl&ikv_ng(trungbnh).

- lchchu)n(

)lc nb_chaic"aphngsai. - lchchu)ncng cdng _ ol &ng

- phntnc"aphnph 'ixcsu_t.Khipd_ng 'iv_it# su_tsinhl&itrong

ut nchobi _tm_c - phntnhays_ bi_n -ngc"at# su_tsinhl&i(ri)xungquanh

t#su_tsinhl&ikv_ng,t+ nhgi_mc-r"iroc"akho_n ut.

2Pi(rir)2
i1

N_uhaikho_nutccngt#su_tsinhl&ikv_ng,kho_nutnoc-lch

chu)ncngcaothm_cr"irocngl_n.Tr &nghpn_uhaikho_nutct#su_tsinh
l&ikv_ngkhcnhauthkhngth_ arak_tlu_nnhtrn,mph_is!d_nghs'bi_n
thin_ nhgi_mc-r"iro.

Hs'bi_nthin(CCoefficientofvariation)lth _cor"irotrnm_i nv_t#

V

su_tsinhl&ikv_ng.Hs'bi_nthincngcaom_cr"irocngl_n.

CV

M_ikho_nut(m-tch_ngkhon)_ucth_g(pph_ihailo_ir"iro:r"irohth'ngvr
"irophihth'ng.

+R"irohth'ng(systematicrisk)lr"irodos_bi_n-nglinhu_nc"ach_ngkhon,hay
c"adanhm_cutdos_thay.ilinhu_ntrnth_tr &ngnichung, cgyrab%icc
y_ut'nh:tnhhnhn_nkinht_,chnhtr_,dochnhschi_uhnhkinht_vmc"aNh
n _ctrongt+ngth&ikho(cs_thay.itrongviccungc_pvs!d_ngccngu,nnng
lngtrnth_gi_iv.v.Lo_ir"ironytc-ng_nt_tc_cclo_ich_ngkhon,do

khngth_gi_m cb3ngvicad_nghodanhm_cut.Lo_ir"ironycng_ilr"i
roth_tr &ng(marketrisk)v col &ngb3nghs'bta.(hs'betas_ cgi_ithiur
hntrongphnti_ptheo)

+R"irophihth'ng(unsystemmaticrisk)hayr"iroringbit:Llo_ir"irokhix_yrach0
_nhh %ng_nm-t,ho(cm-ts'lo_itis_nhaym-tch_ngkhon(r"irov8n,r"irotn
d_ng).Lo_ir"ironyth &ngdochnhdoanhnghipgyra,nh:donngl_cqu_nl
kinhdoanhy_ukm,quy_t_nhv_cc_utis_nvngu,nv'n(s!d_ngnb)ykinh
doanhvnb)ytichnh)khngphhp...Lo_ir"ironycth_gi_m cb3ngchi_n
lcutad_ngho.

T5ngr_iro=R_iroh'th_ng+R_irophih'th_ng

1.2.3T3su!tchi1tkh!u

T#su_tchi_tkh_ulm-ths'nh3mchuy_nhadngthunh_pc"adoanhnghiptrong
tnglaiv_hint_ihayt#su_tchi_tkh_ucnctng_ikhclsu_tsinhlic"ach"
utkhich_pnh_nut.

T#su_tchi_tkh_utrongth)m_nhgitr_doanhnghipbaog,m:

Chiphs!d_ngv'nc.phn(v'nch"s%h_u):lt#su_tlinhu_nmongmu'nc"ac.
ngth &ng ckhiure.Ch0s'ny cxc_nhb3ngnhi_uccmhnhtichnh
nhmhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_CAPM)Mhnhkinh
doanhchnhlchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM);Mhnhlthuy_tM&M.

M_ingu,nv'ncchiphs!d_ngkhcnhau,thngth &ngdoanhnghipph_iph'ihp
huy-ngv'nchoutt+nh_ungu,nkhcnhau.Dov_ycnthi_tph_itnhchi

phs!d_ngv'nbnhqun.Chiphs!d_ngv'nbnhqun cxc_nhtheophng
phpbnhqungiaquy_nmquy_ns'lt#tr_ngccngu,nv'ntrongt.ngv'nm
doanhnghiphuy-ng.Chiphs!d_ngv'nbnhquntrongdoanhnghipph_thu-cvo
2y_ut':Chiphs!d_ngc"at+ngngu,nv'nvt#tr_ngc"at+ngngu,nv'n.

G_iWACClchiphs!d_ngv'nbnhqun

filt#tr_ngngu,nv'nth_i(i=1n)

rilchiphs!d_ngngu,nv'ni

WACC=i1(fixri)

Tuynhinthngth &ngtrongdoanhnghiphuy
v'nch"s%h_uvngu,nv'nvay.Dov_ychith
&ng c _ctnhb3ngcngth_csau:

-ngv'nb3ng2ngu,nchnhlngu
,nphs!d_ngv'nbnhqun
(WACC)

WACC=re*(E/(D+E))+rd*(1tc)*(D/(D+E))

WACC:Chiphs!d_ngv'nbnhqunre:T#su_tsinhl&itrnv'nch"s%h_u

rd:T#su_tsinhlimongmu'nc"ang &ichovay.rdth &ng _ctnhnhsau

rd=(Chiphlivay)/(S'ti_nvaynph_itr_li)tc:Thu_su_tthu_thunh_pdoanhnghi
p.

E:Gitr_v'nc.phn.D:Gitr_c"akho_nn.

V=E+D:T.nggitr_c"acngty.

_ _ctnhWACCtacncccs' liuv_:gitr_ v'nc. phn(E);gitr_ kho_nn(D)

thu_thunh_pdoanhnghip;t#su_tsinhlic"ang &iivay(rd)t#su_tsinhlitrnv'n
ch"s%h_u(re).Trongccch0s'trnth _ctnhrelviclmph_ct_pvkhnh_t.
Trongbinghinc_ut_pchungvocch _ctnhhs'ny.

1.3T5ngquanv_ccmhnhxc2nht3su!tchi1tkh!u

Nhtrnhby%trnthhinnayckhnhi_umhnhnh3mxc_nht#su_tsinhli
(re),ngph_ik_t_inhmhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_
CAPM);Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM)_sk_thp
gi_amhnhCAPMv_ilthuy_tM&M.

1.3.1Mhnh2nhgitis(nv_n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_CAPM)

Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(CAPM)hinnay cs!d_ngkhph.bi_ntrongvic

_ctnhchiphs! d_ngv'n(t# su_tchi_tkh_u)c"adoanhnghip.Mhnhnydo

WilliamSharpephttri_nt+nh_ngnm1960,m(cdcncm-ts'mhnhkhcn_l_c
gi_ithch-ngthith_tr &ngnhngmhnhCAPMlmhnh ngi_nv_m(tkhinim
vckh_nng_ngd_ngstth_cv_ith_cti_n.

Nm1990,Sharpe,MarkowitzvMertonMillernh_n cgi_iNobelkinht_c"a

,nggi_iNobelkhoah_cdonh_ng nggptchc _ctrongvicphttri_nlthuy _t

CAPMvchovicphttri_nn_nkinht_hin_i.

'iv_im_im-tmhnhthth &ngcnh _nggi_ _nh _ vic _ctnh cd_ dng hn.M

hnhCAPMcngv_y,mhnhCAPMcngd_atrnnh_nggi_ _nhnhsau:

a.Ccgi( 2nhc_amhnh

Khngcchiphgiaod_cht_clvicmuabnch_ngkhontrn_thtr &ngkhngt'n
b_tkm-tkho_nchiphno.

T_tc_tis_ncth_ cchianh1vcth_giaod_chmuabn%trnth_tr &ng.

Ccnh utlnh_ngcnhnkhngathchr"ironhnglunmu'nt'iahalich
mongi.T_cl,ccnh utthchl_ach_nch_ngkhonct#su_tsinhlicaotng
_ngv_ir"irochotr _cho(cr"iroth_pnh_tv_it#su_tsinhlichotr _c.

'iv_iccnh ut cth _ ivayvchovayv _icngm-tm_clisu _tphir"iro.

Thngtintrnth_tr &nglminhb_cht_claicngbi_tthngtinvh_ _uccck

v_ng,ngnh_tv_su_tsinhli.

T#lvaytrongth_tr &ngcnggi'ngnht#lchovay,nghalm_inh ut_ucc

h-ilisu_tnhnhautrongvicvayhaychovay.

Luncm-ts_c' _nhnh_nglo_itis_nvs'lngc"achngtrongm-tknghinc_u
"l_n.

b.N_idungchnhc_amhnhCAPM
Mhnh
_nhgitis_nv'n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_CAPM)lmhnhmt_ m'i

quanh
gi_ar"irovlinhu_nkv_ng.Trongmhnhny,linhu_nkv_ngc"am-t

ch_ngkhonb3nglinhu_nkhngr"iro(riskfree)c-ngv_im-tkho_nb5pr"iro

d_atrncs%r"irotonhth'ngc"ach_ngkhon.Cnr
"irokhngtonhth'ng
khng cxemxttrongmhnhnydonh utcth_
xyd_ngdanhm_c u
tad_ngho_lo_ib1lo_ir"irony.

TheomhnhCAPMm'iquanhgi_alinhu_nvr"iro cdi_nt_b%icngth_csau:

Ri=Rf+ i(RmRf)

Rf:Linhu_nkhngr"iro.

10

Rm:Linhu_nkv_ngc"adanhm_cth_tr &ng

:Hs' betac"ac. phi_uj.

Hs'beta()lhs' ol &ngm_c-nh_yc_mc"asu_tsinhlic"ac.phi_uisov_i

th_tr &ng.T_clkhisu_tsinhlic"ath_tr &ngtngln1%thlmchosu_tsinhlic"a

c.phi_us_thay.i.N_uch_ngkhoncr"ironhi_uhn(hs' cngcao)thnh u
ts_yucut#su_tsinhl&ic"ach_ngkhonph_icaohn.

Khii=0:L
inhu_nkv_ngchnhll
inhu_nkhngr"iro.
i=1:L
inhu_nkv_ngchnhll
inhu_nth_tr &ng.

i<1:M_c - r"iroc"angnhkinhdoanhth nsov_ith_ tr &ng

i>1:M_c - r"irongnhkinhdoanhcaoh nsov_ithitr &ng

Rflisu_tphir"irovthngth &ngn col &ngltriphi_uchnhph"10nmtrn

th_tr &ngM4cn%th_tr &ngVitNamdokhngctriphi_ukh_n10nmnn

thngth &ng_ l &nglisu_tphir"iro c cxc_nhd_atrnlisu_ttri

phi_uchnhph"kh_n5nm.

Rm:Tnhb3ngcch_lytrungbnhc-ngsu_tsinhlil_chs!trnth_tr &ng.

Rf:Lisu_ttrungbnhc-ngtriphi_uchnhph"kh_n5nm.

:Th &ng cxc_nhb3ngcchdngmhnhh,iquyd_atrn 'sliul_chs!

TrongmhnhCAPMthcikh _clngvcngkhxc_nhnh_tchnhlhs'
beta.Nhv_ytcgi_s_gi_ithiuk4hs'bta%phnd _iy.

c.H's_beta()

H
s'btalm-ths' ol &ngr"irohth'ngc"am-ttis_n.Nhtrnhby%
trn"rirobaog,m2phn:r"iroh
th'ngvr"irophihth'ng.R"irohth'ng
ny c_nhnghalr"irodotis_nt,nt_itrnth_tr &ng.Ng
cl_i,r"irophi
h
th'nglr"irolinquan_n(ctrngc"atis_nvcth_gi_m
cb3ngccha
d_ngha ut.Khcv_ir"irophih
th'ng,r"irohth'ngkhngth_trnh cnh&
ad_ngha ut.

11

Hinnaym(cdcnhi_unh_ngtranhciangdi_nraxungquanhhs'bta,nhnghin
naymhnhCAPMv:nang cs!d_ngr-ngrinhm-tcngc_tichnh ngi_n,d_
hi_uvd_s!d_ngnh_t'iv_iccnhqu_nlvccnh uts!d_ngvoccm_c
tiu_nhgi,nhgi ut_raquy_t_nhch_nl_accch-i utkhcnhautrongvi
cl_pk_ho_chngnschv'nvtrongqu_nldanhm_c ut.

C3i_mcnlukhidngs'liul_chs! _ _ctnhhs'betal:

Ch_n-digiaio_n _clng:Trongmhnhh,iquytath &ngs!d_ngs'liutrong

kho_ng5nmb%ivykho_ngth&igianthchhp_xc_nhv1chukkinht_hay
k_ho_chc"achnhph"thngth &ng_ukodi5nm.TuynhinringBloomberg
(Knhth&is_tichnhc"aM4)ths!d_ngth&igian23nm.

Ch_nkho_ngth&igiantnhsu_tsinhl&i:Khich_nth&igiansu_tsinhlitacth_ch_n
theophin,ngy,tun,thng,qu,nm.Tuynhin'ttnh_thinnayt_ith_tr &ngVitNam
thtann!sd_ngs'liutheothngb%ivth_tr &ngch_ngkhon"caVitNamm_ihnh
thnhtrongkho_ng10nmn_utadngs'liutheonmths_khng"d_kin_ _ctnh
beta.

Ch_nch0s'th_tr &ng:Ch_nch0s'c"ath_tr &ngmc.phi_uangth_chin

nh_nggiaod_ch.

d.Cccch _ctnhch6s_beta

Cch:1Hs'btath &ng c _ctnhb3ngcchh,iquylinhu_nc.phi_uv_i

l
inhu_nc"ach0s'ch_ngkhontrongm-tkho_ngth&igian.Do,khi_nhgic.

phi_uhay_nhgiccdoanhnghipang cnimy_ttrnth_tr &ngch_ngkhon

(TTCK),tacth_d_dngxc_nhhs'bta"caccdoanhnghipnyb3ngvics!d_ng
thngtinl_chs!gi.cphi_utrnTTCK.

Phngtrnhh,iquynhsau

Ri=o+ i(Rm)

Cch:2Theonhtcgi_Damodaran(2002)CorporateFinancethhs'betatrongm
hnhh,iquybnhphngnh1nh_t(OLS)v_is'liul_chs!v:nchahonton

12

chnhxc_

_ctnhbeta.Dov_ysaukhih,iquythng_xu_ti_uch0nhhs'beta

nhsau:

/R

hi'uch6nh OLS

OLS:hs'betah,iquy(L_ytrongphngtrnhh,iquyOLS)

R:Hs'tngquangi_asu_tsinhlic"ac.phi_uiv_isu_tsinhlic"ath_tr &ng.

Trongmhnhh,iquyOLSthR cnghar3ngbi_n-ngc"ath_tr &nggi_ithch

2

cR s_bi_n-ngc"ac"asu_tsinhlii.Cnl_i(1R ) cgi_ithchb%iccy_ut'
bnngoith_tr &ng.Theonhcchtnhnythvic _ctnhhs'betas_khcao

(b%ivhs'Rgiao-ngtrongkho_ng(1;1))vhs'betanys_ _idinchot_tc_

ccnhnt'tc-ngt_isu_tsinhlic"a1c.phi_unhngi_unyr_tkhkh;ng_nhl
lcnocngchnhxc._chnhxcthtas_ ol &ngccnhnt'khctc-ngt_isu_t
sinhlivmhnhAPMs_giptagi_iquy_tv_n_ny.

Cch3:Bnc_nhcccch _ctnhhs'betanhv_ythhinnaytheonhccnhkinh
t_thu-ctrungtmnghinc_u(CRIF_CenterResearchInFinance)c"atr &ngqu_nlsau
_ih_cAustralian_su_tcch _ctnhhs'betanhsau:

Hs'beta _ctnht+mhnhh,iquyd_ngnhsau:

Ri*=o+ix(Rm*)

Trong

Ri*=(RiRf):M_cbr"iroc"ac.phi_uiRm*=(RmRf):M_cbr"iroth_tr &ngRf
:Lisu_tphir"iro

Ri:T#su_tsinhl&ic"ach_ngkhoniRm:T#su_tsinhlic"ath_tr &ng.

Nhv_yt %ngc"acch _ctnhnylphnbr"iroc"ac.phi_uich_utc-ngb%i

phnbr"iroc"ath_tr &ng.Hs'betatrongtr &nghpnys_ ol &ngm_c-nh_yc_m
c"aphnbr"iroc"ac.phi_uisov_ithitr &ng.

13

Cch _ctnhnykhgi'ngv_icch _ctnhbetatheophngphplcu,tuynhinvic

xc_nhhs'nyih1ithngtintrnth_tr &ngph_it'tvthchhpv_icc

n _cch
th'ngd_liut't.V_iVi
tNamthvic _ctnhtheocchnygpkhkhn
b%ivh
th'ngthngtinchahon
thinnh_tl'iv_iy_ut'lisu_tchnhph".V

theocch _ctnhtheothngthvicxc_nhtheophngphpnyt1ravhiuvhin
nayVitNamchaclisu_tphir"iroth'ngktheothng.

Cch:4TheonhDimson(1979)CorporateFinance,EducationAustralia_xu_t1
phngphpkhc_ _ctnhhs'betakhcg_ilhs'Dimsonsbeta.Mhnhm

Dimson_xu_tcd_ngnhsau:

Rit=i+ i1*Rmt1+ i2*Rmt2+...+ i*Rmt+ i+1*Rmt+1+ i+2*Rmt+2+...

Hs'Dimsonsbeta c _ctnhnhsau

(DIM)= i1+ i2+...+ ik+ i+ i+1+ i+2+...+ i+k

Theonhphngphpnytht#su_tsinhlic"ac.phi_uph_thu-cvoc_nh_ngsu_t
sinhlic"ath_tr &ng%trongqukh_,hint_ivtrongtnglai.i_unycnghplb
%ivkhi _ctnhsu_tsinhlithng &itath &ngnhnvoqukh_vd_botnglai.
Tuynhinthi_unykhngph_illcnocngng(cbitlv_ith_tr &ngch_ng
khonc"aVitNamb%ivccnhuttrnth_tr &ngas' _ut_pchunguttheo
tmlmng.

Cch5:M-tt %ngkhcxc_nhhs'betaltrongdih_nthhs'betacxuh
_ngti_ndnv_1(=1)b%ivtrongtnglaithccc.phi_uc"acngtys_ itheo
nh_ngxuh _ngbi_n-ngc"ath_tr &ng.Dov_ytheoDamodaran(2007)vBloombreg
(knhtin_tctichnhc"aM4)thkhi _ctnhch0s'betatrongdih_nth_xu_ti_u
ch0nhhs'betanhsau:H's_betadih_n=H's_betaOLS*2/3+1/3

Phngphpi_uch0nhbetanycnghanhsau:Trongcch _ctnhhs'betauth
hs'betah,iquy(OLS) cs!d_ngtrongtonb-th&igianmdoanhnghipt,nt_i.
Tuynhintrongdih_nthbetacxuh _ngitheobi_n-ngc"ath_tr &ng

14

(=1)dov_ytcgi_DamodaranvBloombreggi_ araphngphpi_uch0nh
v_igi_ _nhr3ngtrong2/3th&igianuthhs'betatrongmhnhh,iquys_ _idin
chor"iroc"adoanhnghipcnl_i1/3th&igiancnl_ilhs'betaob3ng1.Nhv_y
betadih_nltr_ngs'c"abetah,iquy(OLS)v=1.

Docngth_cth_hinbetadih_nnhsau:

H's_betadih_n=H's_betaOLS*2/3+1/3

Mhnhnyxemrakhhplvhinnay cnhi_un _cangpd_ng.Dov_ytrongbi

nghinc_unytcgi_xin_su_t _ctnhbetai_uch0nhtheonhmhnhnychoc.
phi_ut_ith_tr &ngVitNam.

Nhv_ycnhi_uphngphpch0racchtnhch0s'betatuynhintrongbinghin
c_unythtcgi_ch0s!d_ng2phngphptnhbeta.(1)Beta+ths'h,iquyOLSv
(2)betaci_uch0nhtheoDamodaranvBloombregt_clsaukhichs'betat+m
hnhh,iquyOLSthtcgi_s_ i_uch0nhhs'betav_hs'betadih_n.

Betadih_n=H's_betaOLS*2/3+1/3.

Tuyr3ngmhnhCAPM_atrnkhnhi_unh_nggi_ _nhvcchth_cv_nhnhc"a
th_tr &ng.TuynhinmhnhCAPMv:n cs!d_ngnhi_u_xc_nht#su_tchi_t
kh_uc"adoanhnghipb%ivldomhnhCAPMkh ngi_n,d_th_chin,cc'sliu
thngtinuvotch0cncsu_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonvth_tr &nglcth_
xc_nhvs!d_ngmhnhCAPM.

Nh.nxtv_mhnhCAPM

ui_m

+CAPM ccoilmhnh ngi_nnh_ttrongccmhnhnh3mxc_nht#su_tchi_t

kh_udoanhnghip.

+S'liuvccthngtinuvotrongmhnhCAPMkhngnhi_uvd_tnhton.

H_nch1

+MhnhCAPMd_atrnqunhi_ugi_ _nhvcch_v_nhnhc"ath_tr &ng.

15

+TrongmhnhCAPMthvicol &ngr"iroch"y_ulnhnt'su_tsinhlith_tr &ng

(Su_tsinhlith_tr &ngch_ngkhon).Th_ct_ minhch_ngr3ngbn_cnhnhnt'th_tr
&ngthcncnhi_uccnhnt'khcn_atc-ngt_isu_tsinhlic"ac.phi_u.

_it _ngpd_ng

+MhnhCAPM cpd_ngkh-rng%huh_tccqu'cgiatrnth_gi_i.Mhnhthchh
p'iv_iccdoanhnghiplnsngiaod_chch_ngkhontrongth&igiant+

1nmt_i3nm.

1.3.2Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhl'chgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM)

TrongmhnhCAPMtacth_ _ctnh ct#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhontuynhin

trongmhnhcnt,ntinhi_unh_ngh_nch_.Th_ct_chotath_yr3ngt#su_tsinhlic"a
ch_ngkhonngoiph_thu-cvot#su_tsinhlith_tr &ngcnph_thu-cvoccnhnt'
khcn_a.Trongth_pnin1970S.ARossphttri_nmhnhctng_ilmhnhkinh
doanhchnhlchgi(APM)v_it %nglt#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonph_thu-c
vonhi_uccy_ut'(anhnt').

N_unhtrongmhnhCAPMvicquantr_ngltacnph_i _ctnhch0s'beta()l
cngc_ ol &ngr"iroch"y_u,tuynhintheomhnhAPMthchor3ngbetach0ls_
b5t uvt#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonclinhch(tch_v_iccbi_n.ic"accnhnt'
vm.

N-idungcb_nc"amhnhAPMlt#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonch_utc-ng

c"accnhnt'vmtheo1mhnhanhnt'.

Mhnhnhnt'lm-tmhnhkhngch0di_nt_m_c- _nhh %ngc"accnhnt'kinh

t_vmmcn arachochngtad_bov_t#su_tsinhlic"a1s_ ut.Tac2lo_i
mhnhnhnt' l(1)Mhnhm-tnhnt';(2)Mhnhanhnt'.

+Mhnhm-tnhnt'xemnhlm-tmhnh ngi_nnh_t,trongmhnhnytact#
su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonch_utc-ngc"am-tnhnt'th_tr &ng(Rm).

16

+Mhnhanhnt'lmhnhdi_nt_t#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhoni chp

thnhb%inhi_unhnt'Fj,-nh_yc_mc"ach_ngkhoniv_inhnt'Fjth_hinqua
cchs'beta().Ccnhnt'Fj% ylccnhnt'vmnh:t'c-tngtr %ngkinh
t_,l_mpht,ch0s'ni_mtin,lisu_t,

Cngth_c _ctnhsu_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonitheomhnhAPM cth_hinnh

sau:

Ri=Rf+ 1(R1Rf)+ 2(R2Rf)+ 3(R3Rf)+...+n(RnRf)

Ri:T#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhoniRf:Linhu_nkhngr"iro.

Rm:Linhu_nkv_ngc"adanhm_cth_tr &ng

n:Lhs' betac"anhnt ' v mRn

Hs'betatrongmhnhAPMcnghagi'ngv_imhnhCAPMvn c _ctnh
b3ngphngphph,iquyOLSnhsau:

Ri=o+ 1*R1+ 2*R2+...+ n*Rn

Ccnhnt'vm% y cmt_ lch0s'l_mpht,ch0s'th_tnghipc"aqu'c

gia,ch0s'ni_mtin,t'c-tngtr %ngkinht_,....

Nh.nxtv_mhnhAPM

+ui_m

MhnhAPMls_phttri_nln+tmhnhCAPM,mhnhAPMctnh_nggi_
_nhhntrongmhnhCAPM,mhnhAPM_t chiuqu_t'thnmhnhCAPM
vnol &ngs_nh_yc_mc"av_iccnhnt'kinht_mkhngol &ng cb%i
ch0s'th_tr &ng.

H_nch1

Vic _clngmhnhAPMkhph_ct_pih1inhi_uthngtinkinht_,hth'ngthng
tinph_ihonh_o,s'lngm:uph_i"l_n.

_it _ngpd_ng

17

MhnhAPMthchhpv_iccdoanhnghiplnlnsngiao_dchch_ngkhon

trong1th&igiandi(>3nm)v.n_nhtrnth_tr &ng.Hth'ngs'liuv_doanh

nghipvccnhnt'ph_i"l_n.

1.3.3K1th_pmhnh2nhgitis(nv_n(CAPM)vlthuy1tcc!uv_n
Modigliani&Miller(M&M)

< phntrntaphntchvtmhi _ucch _ctnhchiphs! d_ngv'nv_ihs' betatr_c

ti_ptheophngphph,iquytuynhinv:ncnphngphpkhc_ o

lngchiphs!d_ngv'nlk_thpmhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&M.

Theonhmhnhnyth_xc_nhhs'btac"accdoanhnghipkhngnimy_tlph
ngphptnhhs'btad_atrnhs'btac"accdoanhnghipc(ctrng

tngt_.Theophngphpny,m-ths'btabnhqun
c"at_tc_ccdoanh
nghip cnimy_ttrongcngm-tngnhs_ cs!d_ngnh
bta"cam-tdoanh

nghipkhngnimy_ttrongngnh.Tuynhin,chaii_uch0nhcnquantmkhi
xc_nhhs'btatheophngphpny.

Th_nh_t,vbtac"accdoanhnghip cnimy_tlbtacnb)ytichnh(L),
nghalt#lntrnv'n cph_nnhtronghs'btac"accdoanhnghipny,nnbta
"caccdoanhnghipnyph_i ci_uch0nhthnhbtakhngnb)ytichnh(U)b
3ngcngth_csau:

U= L/[1+(1t)*(D/E)]

Th_haicnph_iquantmlph_ii_uch0nhchobtabnhqunkhngnb)yti
chnhnytr%thnhbtacnb)yc"adoanhnghipkhngnimy_t,nghallmcho
nth_hin cnb)ytichnhc"adoanhnghipkhngnimy_tny.T#lntrnv'n
chi_ult#lntrngi_thtr &ngc"av'nv'iv_idoanhnghipkhngnimy_ts_khng
cgith_tr &ngc"av'ns=nc_tnhtonnnylm-tv_n_khkhnkhipd_ng
phngphptnhbtany.

Tuynhin,Damodaran(1996)cho3rng,m-ttronghaicchkhccth_s!d_ng_tnhb
tanhsau:

18
Th_nh!t,gi_ _nhr3ngt#lntrngi
_thtr &ngc"av'nc"am-tdoanhnghip
khngnimy_ttng ngv_it#l
ntrnv'nbnhqunc"angnh,btac"am-t
doanhnghipkhngnimy_tcth_
ctnhb3ngcngth_csau:
DNkhngnimy1t= U[1+(1Thu1su!t)x(T3l'N_/V_nbnhqunngnh)]
Th_hai,n_udoanhnghipcm-tt#ln
trnv'nm_ctiuhaydoanhnghipcth_
_ctnh ct#lntrnv'nt'iutht#l
nycth_ cs!d_ng_tnhbta.M-t
t#lntrnv'nt'iucth_ cxemnhm-ts_k_thpgi_anvv'ncth_t'ia
hagitr_c"adoanhnghipho(ct'ithi_uhachiphv'nc"adoanhnghip.

DNkhngnimy1t= U[1+(1Thu1su!t)x(T3l'N_/V_nt_iu)]

TheoDamodaran(1996),_xc_nhhs'btatheophngphpnycnph_ith_chinb
_cch_nl_am-ts'ccdoanhnghiptngt_,angnimy_tc"acngngnhngh_kinh
doanh,cngch_utc-ngc"anh_ngl_ckinht_nhdoanhnghipcn ctnhbta.N_u
doanhnghipcnxc_nhbtaho_t-ngtrongnhi_ungnhthcth_ch_nccdoanh
nghiptngt_trongt+ngngnhkinhdoanh;sautnhhs'btabnhqunc"acc
doanhnghipny_c chs'bnhqunngnhc"adoanhnghip.

S_k_thpgi_amhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&M cth_hinb%it %ngvcngth_c

nhsau:

Chiphs!d_ngv'nc"acngtyho_t-ngt_ith_tr &ngVitNamb3ngchiphv'nc"a
cngtytngt_ho_t-ng%HoaKc-ngv_im_cbr"iroqu'cgiavr"irot#gi.

VN

E[R]

=E[R

cngngnh

US

] +Rp+Rp

c
e

E[R]

VN

:Su_tsinhlikv_ngv'nc.phn

c"acngty
angho_t-ngtrnth_tr &ng

VitNam.

US

E[Rcngngnh] :Su_tsinhlikv_ngv'nc.phnc"am-tcngtytngt_ angho_t

-ngtrnth_tr &ngHoaK.

Rpc:Phnbr"iroqu'cgiachnhlphnchnhlchgi_am_clisu_tmchnhph"

VitNamivaynv_ilisu_tchnhph"M4tr_.

E[R

cngngnh

19

C2cch_tacth_ _clngphnbr"iroqu'cgial

S!d_ngh_nm_ctnnhimvayndocc.tch_cnhgi_hnm_ctnnhimvaynnh:
MoodysvS&Pcngb'.H_ngm_ctnnhimvayn_ngv_i1m_clisu_ttriphi_ut_i
th&ii_mc_th_.Phnbr"iroqu'cgi cxc_nhtrncs%chnhlchgi_ah_ngm_c
tnnhimvaync"aqu'cgiav_iHoaK.

S!d_nglinhu_ntriphi_uqu'ct_c"anhn _cangphttri_nv_inhtriphi_unh
n _cc"aqu'cgiaphttri_n.Chnhlchgi_alisu_ttriphi_unychnhlphnb

r"iroqu'cgia.

Rpe:Phnbr"iroh'ioilchnhlchgi_asu_tsinhlic"am-tkho_nutb3ngn-it
sov_isu_tsinhlic"am-tkho_nutb3ngUSD.M-tcchtnhth_ct_ll_ychnhlch
gi_alisu_tti_ng!iVNDvlisu_tti_ng!iUSDc"am-tngnhngthngm_ihay
m_cbnhqunc"accngnhngthngm_i.

US

] c _ctnhtheomhnhCAMPnhsau:
US

US

US

re

=E[Rcngngnh]=Rf+L*(RmRf)

VN

US

Hs' c"acngtyM4 cc_pnh_tkhth &ngxuynnnchngta_dngtm c.

Tuynhincchs' ny_ngv_inh_ngt#ln/v'nc.phnvthu_su_tthu_thunh_p
doanhnghip%HoaK.Cngty%VitNamct#ln/v'nc.phnvthu_su_tthu_thu
nh_pdoanhnghiphontonkhcnhau.Vv_y,_tnhtonm-tcchchnhxchnta
ph_ii_uch0nhhs'beta.i_uch0nhhs'betaquaccgiaio_nnhsau:

US

US

US

US

US

VN

US

VN

U = L /[1+(1t )*(D/E) ] L

US

= U *[1+(1t

VN

)*(D/E)

VN

Nh.nxtv_mhnhk1th_pCAPMvlthuy1tM&M

ui_m

Mhnhnykhm_im7,'itngpd_ngc"amhnhnykhr-ng.Mhnhnykh

ngi_nd_th_chin,s'liud_thuth_pvccs%lthuy_tv_ngch5c.

H_nch1

+Mhnhnycngd_atrnnhi_ugi_thuy_t.

20

+Cch _ctnhtheomhnhnyth &ngchotat#su_tchi_tkh_uth_phn2phng

phpu.B%ivtrongmhnhcgi_ _nhr3ngcngtyc"aVitNamho_t-ngtrn
th_tr &ngM4.Th_tr &ngM4v'nlth_tr &ngtichnhkh.n_nhdov_ymr"iro
c"ath_tr &ngM4th_phnr"iro%th_tr &ngVitNam.Bn_cchthtrongphng
phptnhtonththngth &ngthtach0cth_l_yhs'betabnhqunc"angnhbn
M4.M(cdtrongmhnhcngcphnbr"iroqu'cgivphnbr"irot#gituy
nhinnv:nchaph_nnhth_cs_ cr"iro%th_tr &ngVitNam.

itngpdng

MhnhCAPMk_thpv_ilthuy_tM&Mcth_pd_ngchot_tc_ccdoanhnghip
trnth_tr &ng.Tuynhinmhnhnyphhpnh_t'iv_iccdoanhnghipchalnsn
giaod_chch_ngkhonho(cm_ilnsntrongth&igianr_tng5n.

1.4T5ngquanccphngphpth7m2nhgitr2doanhnghi'p1.4.3Phngphp
tis(n

Phngphptis_nlphngphp _ctnhgitr_c"adoanhnghipd_atrngi_trth_tr
&ngc"at.ngtis_nc"adoanhnghip.

Gitr_v'nch"s%h_uc"adoanhnghip c _ctnhb3ngcch_lygitr_c"atonb-ti
s_nc"acngtytheogith_tr &ngtr+cckho_nnc"adoanhnghip.

VE=VAVD

VEGitr_th_tr &ngv'nch"s%h_uc"adoanhnghipVAGitr_th_tr &ngc"atonb-

tis_n

VDGitr_th_tr &ngc"acckho_nn

1.4.4Phngphpxc2nhgitr2doanhnghi'pd0alith1thngmi

ylphngphpxc_nhgitr_doanhnghipctnh_nlith_thngm_ic"a
doanhnghip.Theophngphpnygi_trdoanhnghip ctnhb3nggitr_c"accti
s_nthunnhgi_iltheophngphptisranc-ngv_igitr_lith_thngm_i.Gi
tr_lith_thngm_ic"adoanhnghip ctnhb3nghingic"acckho_nsiulinhu_n
dolith_thngm_i(Tis_nvhnhkhngphn_nhc_th_ c)c"adoanhnghip
t_ora.

21
Cngth_ctnh
V0=A+VGW
V_iV0
:Gitr_doanhnghip
A
:Gitr_tis_ndoanhnghip
VGW
:Gitr_l
ith_thngm_i.
V_igitr_l
ith_thngm_i c _clngnhsau
2

VGW=(R1r*A1)/(1+i)+(R2r*A2)/(1+i) ++(Rtr*At)/(1+i)
Rt
:Linhu_nnmt
At
:Gitr_tis_nnmt
r
:T#su_tlinhu_nbnhth &ng
Rtr.At:Siulinhu_nnmt
i
:T#su_tchi_tkh_uch0rakh_nngsinhl&icth_cnhi_udoanhnghip.

Ckhnhi_ulthuy_tv_cch_lach_nccch0s'Rt;r,Attuynhinc3mhnh

chnhnhsau:

Mhnh

Rt

At

1.UEC(hiphiChiphs!d_ngv'n
L
inhu_ntr _cT.ngtis_nh_ud_ng

cc
nhk_
to

trungbnhccngu,nthu_(EBIT)

chuu)

v'n(WACC)

2.AngloSaxons
Chiphs!d_ngv'nL
inhu_nthunGitr_tis_nthun(v'n

ch"s%h_u(re)

ch"s%h_u) cnhgi

l_i

3.
CPNE
(V'nChiphs!d_ngv'nLinhu_nsau(V'n
th &ngxuyn c

th &ngxuyncntrungbnhccngu,nthu_tr _clivaytitr
b3ngccngu,n.n

thi_t
cho

kinhv'ntrungvdih_ntrungvdih_n_nh:v'nch"s%h_u,v'n

doanh)

(WACC)

vaytrungvdih_n

22

1.4.5Phngphpsosnh2thtr4ng(P/E)

Phngphpnylphngphpd_atrnccquani_mccnh uttrongtnglais_
nhgichnhxcgi_c"tradoanhnghipthngquagic.phi_uc"adoanhnghip.

V=Linhu.nrng*P/E

Trong:P/E=P/EPS

V:Gitr_doanhnghip

P:Gibn.cphi_utrnth_tr &ng

EPS:Thunh_ptrnm_ic.phnd_ki_nv c _ctnhnhsau:

EPS=Linhu.nthu8n/Sl ngc5phi1uangluhnh

Phngphpchi1tkh!udngtin

a.Phngphpchi1tkh!udngc5tc(DividendDiscountModelDDM)

Mhnh_nhgic.phi_ulmhnhkhquantr_ngtrongvic_nhgithngquavic

_nhgi .cphi_uc"acngtytacth _ xc_nhgitr_ v'nch" s% h_ub3ngcch _lygi

c.phi_unhnv_is'lngc.phi_u%th&ii_mhint_i.

Theonhlthuy_tthgitr_c.phi_ub3nggitr_hint_ic"angnlumc. ngk
v_ngs_nh_n ckhin5mgi_c.phi_u.Gitr_nytng ngv_igitr_hint_ic"at_t
c_c.t_ctnglai.

N_ug_iPl gi tr_c.phi_u,DIVlc.t_c,relsu_tchi_tkh_uvtlth&igianHinnay
tac3mhnhd_atrn3gi_thuy_tv_tngtr %ngc.t_cl:

Mhnh1:C.t_ctngtr %ngv_it'c-khng.imimi.

Theonhmhnhnythdngc.t_cs_tngtr %ngv_it'c-khng.ivmimi.

Nhv_ykhigitr_c"ac.t_cs_l.

P=DIV/(reg)

Mhnh2:C.t_ctngtr %ngv_it'c-khng.itrong1s'nmnh_t_nh,sau
chuy_nsangm-tt'c-tngtr %ngth_phn(vkhng.i)t+ cho_nmimi.

23

P=DIV1*(1+gh)/(1+re)+DIV2*(1+gh)/(1+re) +...+Pn/(1+re)

Trong:Pn=DIVn/(reg)

Mhnh3:C.t_ctngtr %ngv_it'c-khng.itrong1s'nmnh_t_nh,sautng
tr %ngv_it'c-gi_mdntrongm-ts'nm,r,icu'icngthgi_nguyn'tc-tngtr %ng
t+ cho_nmimi.

T'c-tngtr %ngc"ac.t_c(g) cxc_nhb%icngth_cnhsaug=ROE*

Reinvest

ROE:T#su_tsinhlitrnv'nch"s%h_u

Reinvest:T#llinhu_ngi_l_iv_im_cchti ut

b.Phngphpchi1tkh!udngt0doc_av_nch_s9h/u(FCFE)

Mhnhngnluv'nch"s%h_ukhngkhcbitnhi_usov_imhnhchi_tkh_udng

c.t_c(DDM).MhnhFCFElmhnhtrongtachi_tkh_udngc.t_cti_mnng

thayvtaichi_tkh_uc%t_cth_ct_.

Ngnlut0doc_av_nch_s9h/u(FreeCashflowtoEquityFCFE)=

FCFE=Thunh.pho_t_ng(1thu1su!t)(chitiu8utKh!uhao)Thay

5iv_nlu_ngngoiti_nmt+(N_m_ihuy_ngHontr(n_vay)VE=
2

FCFE1/(1+re)+FCFE2/(1+re) +...+FCFEn/(1+re)

VE:Gitr_v'nch"s%h_u

re:Su_tchi_tkh_u(Chiphd!d_ngv'n)

c.Phngphpchi1tkh!udngti_nt0doc_adoanhnghi'p(FCFF)

Gitr_doanhnghip ctnhb3ngcchchi_tkh_udngti_nd_ki_nc"adoanhnghip
(dngti_ncnl_isaukhitr+thu_vchiphho_t-ngnhngtr _ckhithanhtonn
vay)theochiphs!d_ngv'nbnhqun(chiphs!d_ngccngu,ntitrc"adoanhnghip
ctnhbnhqungiaquy_ntheot#tr_nggith_tr &ngc"at+ngy_ut').

24

Trong:

Dngti_nc"acngtyt(FCFF):dngti_nkv_ngc"acngtyt_ith&ii_mtWACC:
Chiphs!d_ngv'nbnhqun.

Chaicchtnhdngti_nthunc"acngty(FCFF):

Cch:1c-ngccdngti_nc"anh_ngng &icquy_n'iv_itis_nc"acngty.

FCFF=FCFE+chiphlivay*(1thu_su_t)+cckho_ntr_ng'cccch_ngkhonn
m_i+c.t_cc.phi_uui

Cch:2s!d_ngthunh_ptr _cthu_vlivay

FCFF=EBIT*(1thu_su_t)+chiphkh_uhaochiv'ntnggi_mv'nlu-ng

d.Phngphpvnhathunh.p

Phngphpv'nhathunh_pLphngphp _ctnhgitr_doanhnghip,lichthu-c
s%h_uc"adoanhnghipho(cch_ngkhonb3ngcchchuy_n.icclichd_ontrong
tnglaithnhgitr_ v'n.

Gitr2doanhnghi'p=Thunh.prng/T3su!tvnha

T#su_tv'nhal%dng_chuy_n.igitr_thunh_ptnglaithnhgitr_v'n%
th&ii_mhint_i.Thngth &ngt#su_tv'nha cs!d_nglchiphs!d_ngv'nch"s%
h_u/v'nc.ph)n,lt#su_tlinhu_nkv_ngrec"anh ut.

Phngphpnyp_dngtrncs%gi_ _nhdoanhnghips_ti_pt_cho_t-ng.n_nh
vt_orathunh_pvnhvi_n.

1.4.7Phngphpgi2trkinht1giatng(EVA)vthunh.pgitr2cnli

a.Phngphpgi2trkinht1giatng(EconomicValueAdded_EVA)

Mhnhgitr_kinht_giatng(EconomicValueAdded)lmhnh_nhgixc_nh

gitr_doanhnghip ctnhb3nggitr_s.schc"av'n utc-ngthmv_iphngitr_

kinht_giatngthm.

Vo=Gitr2s5schcavn8ut+Gitr2kinht1tngthm(EVA)

25

Gitr_kinht_tngthmb3nggitr_th(ngdv'nutdosu_tsinhlitrnv'ncao

hnchiphs!d_ngv'n.

EAV=EBIT(1t)WACC*(D+E)

Tac:ROC=EBIT*(1t)/(D+E)

(ROC:T#su_tsinhlitrnv'nut)

EVA=ROC*(D+E)WACC*(D+E)EVA=(ROCWACC)*(D+E)

(ROCWACC)Lt#su_tsinhliph_tr-ic"adoanhnghip.

WACC:Chiphs!d_ngv'nbnhqun

b.MhnhThunh.pgitr2cnl_i

Mhnhthunh_pgitr_cnl_ilmhnhnh3mxc_nhv'nch"s%h_uc"adoanh
nghipv c _ctnhb3ngcch_lygitr_s.schv'nch"s%h_uc-ngv_ithunh_pgi
tr_cnl_ic"ach"s%h_u.

VE=Gitr_v'nch"s%h_utheos.sch+Thunh_pgitr_cnl_i

Thunh_pgitr_cnl_i=Linhu_nrngchiphs!d_ngv'n

Thunh_pgitr_cnl_i=EATChiphs!d_ngv'n

Thunh_phgitr_cnl_i=ROE*Ere*E=(ROEre)*E

ROE:T#su_tsinhlitrnv'nch"s%h_u.

re:Su_tsinhlitrnv'nch"s%h_u(Chiphs!d_ngv'n)

26

CHNG2KHUNGPHNTCH

Theonhcclthuy_ttrntath_yr3ng_ _ctnht#su_tchi_tkh_uc"adoanhnghip
thtacnh_ngmhnhnh:Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_
CAPM);Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM);mhnh
CAPMk_thpv_ilthuy_tM&M.

2.1Mhnh2nhgitis(nv_n(Capitalassetpricingmodel_CAPM)

Ri=Rf+ i(RmRf)

V_ihs' (beta) cxc_nht+mhnhh,iquysau:

Ri=o+ i(Rm)

Ri:T#su_tsinhlic"ac.phi_uBBCv c _ctnhtheothng.Ri cxc_nhnhsau:

Ri=(PtPt1)/Pt1

Rm:T#su_tsinhlic"aVNindex,s'liul_yt+gingc!ac"am_ithngv c
xc_nhnhsau:Rm=(PvntPvnt1)/Pvnt1

Theonhphnlthuy_ttrnhby%trnthnhi_unhkinht_th &ngl_ach_nth&igian

_ _ctnhbetakho_ngth&igiant+ 25nm.Trongbinghinc_utcgi_ s_ s! d_ng s'

liul_chs!trong4nmt+01/200612/2009.S'liuv_t#su_tsinhlil_ym_cgi

ngc !ac"athngv ct.nghpt+ trangwebsitecophieu68.com.

Mhnhh,iquytrntc_gis_s!d_ngmhnhh,iquyOLSvs_ki_m_nhccgi_
thuy_tc. i_n_xc_nhs_ ng5nc"amhnh.

Vtheonhlthuy_ttrnhby%trnthtc_gis_s!d_ng2cch _ctnhhs'beta.

(1)Betah,iquyt+mhnhOLSvth_(2)Hs'betai_uch0nhdih_n.

H's_betadih_n=H's_betaOLS*2/3+1/3

2.2Mhnhkinhdoanhchnh'lchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM)

Theonhlthuy_tthmhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(Arbitragepricingmodel_APM
)ls_phttri_nc"amhnhCAPMtrnhby%trntuynhintrongmhnhnyththeo
cnh_ngnhnt'vmtc-ngvot#su_tsinhlic"ac.phi_u.

27

Ri=Rf+1(R1Rf)+2(R2Rf)+3(R3Rf)+...+n(RnRf)

Trongcchs'beta cxc_nhb3ngcchh,iquyphngtrnhsauy.

Ri=o+1*R1+2*R2+...+n*Rn

Theonhtcgi_TrnTh_Ng_cDi_mtronglu_nvnth_cskinht_(2008),*ngd_ngcc
lthuy_thin_itrongvicol &ngr"iroc"accch_ngkhonlim_ytt_is%giaod_ch
ch_ngkhonthnhph'H,ChM_nh.Ccnhnt'vmmtcgi_ _xu_tchovom
hnhbaog,mccnhnt'nhsau:(1)T#su_tsinhlic"ath_tr &ngol &ngb%it#su_t
sinhlic"ach0s'Vnindex;(2)l_mphtol &ngb%ich0s'gitiudng;

(3)Ch0s'givng;(4)Ch0s'gi,ngUSD.Tuynhintrongbinghin_cunytcgi_
xinb.sungthm4nhnt'n_al:(5)Ch0s'giduth_gi_i;(6)Ch0s'v_t.ngm_c
bn7l;(7)Ch0s' utc"achnhph"VitNam;(8)Ch0s'cngnghip.Cc'sliu cs!
d_ngl_ytheothngv cl_yt+t.ngc_cth'ngkVitNam.

Theocngth_cnhsau:

R=(PnPn1)/Pn1

Nhv_ymhnhAPMmtcgi_s!d_ngs_d_ngnhsau:

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CngtyTNHHm-tthnhvinBibicami_nng(cngtyconc"aCngtyC.phn
Bibica) cthnhl_ptheogi_yphps'4604000132ngy21/9/2007angtronggiai

o_n u i ut: cmi_nthu_ 100%trong3nmk_ t+ nm2008,gi_mthu_ 50%

trongvng7nmti_ptheovh %ngm_cthu_su_t15%trongvng12nm.

Vccnguynnhntrnnndoanhnghipch0cnngthu_thnccnmtr _cv

i_unylmcholinhu_nsauthu_ c"acngtyt ngcao.

Hnh3.3Bi_u,linhu_nsauthu_c"acngtytrongnm20052009

60.000

57.545

50.000

40.000

30.000

19.183
24.443
20.851

20.000
12.284

10.000

0
Nm 2005
Nm 2006
Nm 2007
Nm 2008

Nm 2009

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

Tuynhinych0ly_ut't_mth&ic"adoanhnghipsaukhih_th_ngi_mthu_ths'
thu_c"acngtys_tngtr%l_i.Doanhnghipnn_tnd_ngth&ii_mny_kinhdoanh
t't.

T+k_tqu_bocotichnh"cacngtytacnh_ngnh_nxtnhsau:

Tronggiaio_nnm20082009tnhhnhkinht_cnhi_unh_ngb_tth &ngtuynhin
doanhthuvlinhu_nc"acngtyv:ntngtr %ng%m_ccao.

Trongnm2009cngtys!d_nghplcckho_nchiphnhgiv'nhngbn,chiph
qu_nl,chiphbnhng,i_unygipchocngtycngu,nlinhu_nkhcao.

40

Cngtynm2009s!d_nghplngu,nv'nvnh_nguic"achnhph"kch

cuc"achnhph" _gi_mthi_u cchiphtichnh.

CngtyBibicangycngth_hinlcngtycv_th_l_ntrongngnhs_nsu_tbnh
k/oc"aVitNam.

3.1.3.2Phntchb(ngcn_ik1ton

a.Phntchcc!utis(nc_acngty

B_ngth'ngk.tngtis_nc"acngty20082009

Ch6tiu
2008
2009

T5ngc_ngtis(n
606.168
736.809

( nv_tnhtriu,ng)

T.ngtis_nc"acngtynm2009tngsov_inm2008l21,55%vm_ctngch"
y_uldotis_ndih_nc"acngty(93,87%sov_inm2008)

Hnh3.4Bi_u,cc_otis_nc"acngtytronggiaio_n20082009

100,00%

90,00%

33,64%

80,00%

53,65%

70,00%

60,00%

Ti s_n di h_n

50,00%

Ti s_n ng_n h_n

40,00%

66,36%

30,00%

46,35%

20,00%

10,00%

0,00%

2008
2009

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

T+bi_u,trntath_yr3ngtrongnm2009cc_utis_nc"acngtycnhi_uthay

.isov_inm2008.Trongnm2009thc c_utis _ndih _nc"acngtycaoh nti

s_nng5nh_ntrongkhinm2008thngcl_i.

Nguynnhnlmchocc_utis_ndih_ncaohntis_nng5nh_nlcngty
ut thmmymcthi_ b_ th_ hintis _nc' _nhc"acngty t nglng_p2lnso
v_inm2008.Trongkhitis_nng5nh_nc"acngtygi_msov_inm2008l

41

15%vtis_nng5nh_nch"y_uc"acngtylti_nm(t(chi_mkho_ng59,96%trongti

s_nng5nh_n).

Nhv_yvic utvotis_nc' _nhc"acngtylvi

clmt'tvvic utnys_

gipcngtym%r-ngquyms_nsu_t,tngnngsu_t,
i_unys _ gipcngtypht

tri_n,tngs_cc_chtranhvtngv_th_c"acngtytrongngnh.

Victis_nng5nh_nc"acngtynm2009ch"y_ulti_nm(ti_unys_lmtngkh_

nngthanhtonc"acngty,
i_unyvcngquantr _nggipchocngtyv tquan

th&ikkh"ngho_ng.Tuynhinkhimkinht_ .n_nhthcngtycncnnh5cl_ic

c_utis_nny.

b.Phntchcc!ungu>nv_nc_acngty

Hnh3.5Bi_u,cc_ungu,nv'nc"acngty20082009

120%

100%

80%

81,57%
71,02%

60%

40%

20%

18,43%
28,98%

0%

2008
2009

N_ ph_i tr_
Ngu_n v_n ch_ s
hu

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

Trongnm2009thcc_ungu,nv'nc"acngtykhngthay.inhi_usov_inm2008.
Trongnm2009thcckho_nnph_itr_c"acngtytngsov_inm2008vtrongc
c_unph_itr_thch"y_uv:nlcckho_nnng5nh_n(73,61%).Trongkhi

n m2009ngu,nv'nch" s% h_uc"acngtyc ngtng(5,83%kho_ng28,82t# )v

v'nch"s%h_uv:nchi_m1t#tr_ngr_tcao(99,68%)trongt.ngngu,nv'nch"s%h_ucc
ngu,nkinhphvqu4chi_m1t#lr_tnh1.

42

Nhv_ytacth_nh_nth_yr3ngcngtyBibicact#tr_ngv'nch"s%h_ucaolbi_u

hin1cc_utichnhv_ngm_nhv.n_nh,r"iroth_pvcngtycti
_ml_cm% r-ng
quyms_nxu_t.

Tml_it+vicphntchb_ngcn'ik_tontrntanh_
th_yr3ngcc_uv'nc"a
cngtyBibicar_tt't,cc_uv'nth_hinm_c-r"iroth_pphh
pv_ihonc_nh
kinht_ ybi_n-nghinnayvviccngty
ut votis _nc' _nhs_ t_o i_ukin
thu_nlichocngtyphttri_ntrongccgiaio_ns5pt_i.

3.1.3.3Phntchccch6s_tichnh

a.Phntchkh(nngthanhtonn_c_acngty

Ch6tiu

2009
nv2

T#s'thanhtonhinth&i

2,17
Ln

T#s'thanhtonnhanh

1,61
Ln

Kthuti_nbnhqun

35,59
Ngy

S'ngyt,nkhobnhqun

64,32
Ngy

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

M-tv_n_quantr_ng'iv_icngtylch0s' ol &ngkh_nngthanhtonc"a
cngty.Ccch0s'nyth_hinkh_nngthanhtoncckho_nnc"acngtyt_ith&i

i_mhint_i.

Trongnm2009,t#s'thanhtonhinth&ic"acngtyl2,17choth_yr3ngc_1,ngn
ph_itr_s_c2,17,ngtis_nb_o_m,ch0s'nykhcaochoth_ycngtyckh_
nngthanhtoncckho_nnc"acngty.Ch0s'thanhton_tcth&ic"acngty1,61cho
bi_tn_unhhint_itr_1,ngths_c1,61,ngb_o_m,i_unychoth_ykh_nng
thanhtonc"acngtylt't,cngtyhinangduytr1lnghngt,nkhocao.

Nhv_yt+nh_ngch0s'trnchngtacth_nh_nth_yr3ngcngtyBibicatrongnm
2009cnhi_ukh_nngp_ng ctnhthanhtonnb3ngtis_nlu-ngc"acngty.

43

b.Ch6s_ ol 4nghi'uqu(ho_t_ngc_atis(n

Vngquaytis_nng5nh_n

1,69

Vngquaycckho_nph_ithu

10,12

Vngquaytis_nc' _nh

2,32

Vngquayhngt,nkho

7,98

Vngquayv'nch"s%h_u

1,23

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

Ccch0s' ol &nghiusu_ts!d_ngtis_nchochngtabi_tr3ngc_1,ngb1vocho
lo_ihnhtis_ns_lmtnglnbaonhiu,ngdoanhthu.C_th_nhsau:trongnm
2009thkhitab1thm1,ngvotis_nng5nh_nths_t_otachota c1,69

,ngdoanhthu,tngt_ nh cckho_nm_ckhcnh v_yquanh_ngch0 s' nygipta

hi_u cphnnotnhhnhhiuqu_ho_t-ngc"atis_n.

Tuynhinkhiphntchccch0s'nychngtacncht_i2ch0tiuquan_tnglch0
tiuvngquaycckho_nph_ithu10,12vvngquayhngt,nkho7,98.2ch0s'
nykhcaochochngta1nh_nth_yr3nghinnaycngtyang_lnghngt,nkho

vkho_nph_ithu%m_cth_pvcngtycth
_ tngl nghngt ,nkhovcckho_n
ph_ithu_m%r-ng cth_phn.

c.Phntchch6tiuol 4nghi'uqu(ho_t_ngkinhdoanh

Linhu_ng-pbin

29,83%

L
inhu_ntr _cthu_bin

10,26%

L
inhu_nrngbin

9,16%

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

Ccch0s'trnph_nnhkh_nngt_olinhu_nt+1,ngdoanhthu.C_th_nhsautrong
nm2009thc_1,ngdoanhthutngln_slmcholinhu_ng-ptngln0,2983,ng
,ngth&ilinhu_ntr _cthu_c"acngtycngtngln0,1026,ngvcu'icnglli
nhu_nrngc"acngtytng0,0916,ng.

44

d.Phntchch6s_ ol 4ngkh(nngsinhl_i

ROA
7,81%

ROE
11,03%

Licb_ntrnc.phi_u(EPS)
3.715

P/E

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

ylphnquantrongnh_t'iv_icngtyvccnhutth &ngd_avoccch0s'
ny_xemxtxemcnnutvocngtyhaykhng?.Ch0s'ROA=7,81%cho
chngtath_yr3ngc1,ngb1votis_nc"acngtyths_t_ora c0,0781,ng

linhu_n.

Tngt_nhv_yv_ich0s'ROE=11,03%i_unychoth_yc_ utthm1,ng
vocngtys_t_ora c0,1103,nglinhu_n.

EPSlphnlinhu_nmcngtyphnb.chom_ic.phnthngth &ngang clu

hnhtrnth_tr &ng,nm2009cngtycch0s'nyl3.715i_unyth_hintrong
nmnaynhnmgi_c.phi_us_cth_ cchiac.t_cl3.715,ng/c.phi_u.

3.2Xc2nht3su!tchi1tkh!uc_acngty

3.2.1Mhnh2nhgitis(nv_n(CAPM)

Nhtrnhbytrongphnlthuy_t,t#su_tsinhlic"acngtyc.phnbnhk/oBibica
c _ctnhtheomhnhCAPMtheocngth_ccb_nnhsau:

RBBC=Rf+i(RmRf)

V_ilisu_tc"atriphi_ukh_n2nm(Rf)l9%

Lisu_tbnhqunth_tr &ngch_ngkhontronggiaio_n(20012009)cm_cl

(Rm)23,69%.

Lisu_tphir"irobnhquntronggiai_an20012009l8,9%.

(Cctnhtonv'sliuth'ngk cnhkmtrongph_l_c1)

45

_ctnhh's_betac_aBibica

Hnh3.6Bi_u,t#su_tsinhl
ich_ngkhonBibica(BBC)v_it#su_tsinhl
iVN
indextheothng(01/200612/2009)

.8

.6

.4

.2

.0

-.2

-.4

2006
2007
2008
2009

BBC
RVN

T+ ,th_trntacth_nh_nth_yt#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonBBCitheoxuh _ng
chungc"ath_tr &ng.Khith_tr &ngcxuh _ngtngtht#su_tsinhlic"ach_ng
khoncngtng.i_unygiptacth_kh;ng_nhhs'betacd_udng.

Theonhcclthuy_ttrnhby%phntrnhs'beta c _clngtmhnhh,iquy
RBBCtheoRMk_tqu_ _clngt+d_liut#su_tsinhlic"aBBCvth_tr &ngtheo
thngtrongnm20062009nhsau

Hnh3.7K_tqu_h,iquyt#su_tsinhlic"aBBCtheoch0s'VNindex

46

K_tqu_c"amhnhh,iquyc"amhnhtrnkh'ttvkhngb_nh_nghintngnh:
2

Phngsaikhng.i;ac-ngtuy_n,t_tngquan,phndphnph'ichu)n.Hs'R =
55,61%i_unyth_hinr3ngnhnt't#su_tsinhlith_tr &nggi_ithch

c55,61%s_thay.ic"at#su_tsinhlic"aBBC.

Nhv_ytac" i_ukink_tlu_nr3ngmhnhh,iquytrnchok_tqu_t'tvch_p
nh_n c.(nhkmccki_m_nhtrntrongphnph_l_c1).

T+k_tqu_ _clngOLSchotanh_nth_yr3nghs'betac"aBBCl(OLS)1.0607
i_unyth_hinr3ngkhith_tr &ngch_ngkhonct#su_tsinhlitngln1%
th
ch_ngkhonBBC_stng1,0607%.Tuynhinhs'betachaph_nnhngh_t
c
s_r"irot+th_tr &ngdov_ytacnph_ii_uch0nhhs'beta.

Theonhtcgi_DamodaranvBloombregthhs'betai_uch0nhs_l:

dih_ n=1,0607%*2/3+1/3=1,0405

Nhv_ytheomhnhCAPMtht#su_tsinhlic"acngtyc.phnbnhk/oBibica

c _ctnhnhsau:

(1)Theonhcch _ctnhbetat+trongmhnhh,iquy

RBBC=9%+1.0607*(23,69%8,9%)=24,68%

(2)Theonhcch _ctnhbetai_uch0nhdih_n

RBBC=9%+1.0405*(23,69%8,9%)=24,38%

TheonhmhnhCAPMtht#su_tsinhlitheophngphpbetakhngi_uch0nhcao
hnphngphp _ctnhbetadih_nkhngnhi_u,tuynhini_unych0 ngiv_i
cngtyBibica.Trongtr &nghpcccngtykhcth_schnhlchnys_r_tkhc.

Tuynhinvics!d_ngv'nc"acngtykhngph_ich0ctrongth&ii_mnh_tth&im
chiphs!d_ngv'nth &ngph_i _ctnhchodih_n.Dov_ytrongbinghinc_unytc
gi_xin_xu_ts!d_ngmhnhCAPMv_iphngphpxc_nhhs'betai_uch0nh
trongdih_n.

T_clh's_ dih_ n=1,0405v_iRBBC=24,38%

47

3.2.2Mhnhkinhdoanhchnhl'chgi(APM)

MhnhAPMl1b _cphttri_nc"amhnhCAPM,trongmhnhAPMbnc_nht#
su_tsinhlic"ath_tr &ngthcncthmnh_ngnhnt'vmkhccth_tc-ngt_i

t#su_tsinhl
ic"ach_ngkhonBBC.
Mhnhcd
_ng
Ri=Rf+1(R1Rf)+2(R2Rf)+3(R3Rf)+...+n(RnRf)
Ri:T#su_tsinhl
ic"ach_ngkhoni

Rf:Linhu_nkhngr"iro.Rn:Nhnt'vm

n:Hs'betac"anhnt'vmRn

Cchs'beta c _clngtheomhnhh,iquyOLSsau:

Ri=o+1*R1+2*R2+...+n*Rn

+Tnhbetac"accnhnt'

Theonhtrnhbytrongphnkhungphntchthccnhnt'trongmhnhbaog,m:
Su_tsinhlic"ath_tr &ng;Ch0s'gitiudng;Ch0s'givng;Ch0s'giUSD;Ch0s'
cngnghip;Chnhlch%giduthngnysov_ithngtr _c;Chnhlch%gi_angu,n
v'nutthngnyv_ithngtr _c;Chnhlch%t.ngm_cbn7l

HH&DVthngnyv_ithngtr _c.

Ch0s'gitiudngol &ngm_c-l_mphtc"an_nkinht_;khim_c-l_mphtcao
tht#su_tsinhlith_ct_s_gi_m.khim_cl_mphtc"an_nkinht_caothi_unys_
lmgi_mth_cs_t#su_tsinhlic"ath_tr &ngch_ngkhon.nhv_ynhnt'ch0s'gi
tiudngctngquanngh_chv_it#su_tsinhlic"aBBC.

Ch0s' ,nglaM4(USD)ch0s'USDth_hinm_cthayth_th_tr &ngch_ng

khon,ycnglnhnt'quantr_ngcth_ _nhh %ngt_it#su_tsinhlic"aBBC.M'i
quanhch0s' ,ngUSDv_it#su_tsinhlic"aBBClquanhngh_ch.

Ch0s'vngcnggi'ngnht#giUSD,vngcnglknhutc"aqu'cgia.Bn
c_chlknhutvngcnlphngtintchtr_ cyuthchc"accnhutkhi
mn_nkinht_cnh_ngbi_n-ngb_t.n.Dov_ygivngv_it#su_tsinhlic"ach_ng
khonlquanhngh_ch.

48

Ch0s'gidulnhnt'quantr_ng'iv_in_nkinht_,m-ts_bi_n-ngm_nhc"agi
dus_ _nhh %ngm_nht_in_nkinht_.Nh_ngcs'cgiduth &ngcnh_ngtc

-ngt_in_nkinht_.T#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhoncth_ch_utc-ngc"anhnt'

vmny.

Ch0s'cngnghipylnhnt'vmquantr_ng'iv_in_nkinht_nth_hint'c

-phttri_nc"aqu'cgia.Vtalunkv_ngr3ngch0s'nyngycngtngi_uny
th_hinkinht_ngycngphttri_ni_unys_ltngt#su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhon.
Ch0s'm_cbn7l:ych0s'th_hinchos_cmuachon_nkinht_,khis_cmuac"an_n
kinht_tngi_unycngth_hinphnnos_phttri_nc"an_nkinht_.

Ch0s' utnhn _c:utnhn _cls'ti_nmnhn _cutvon_nkinht_

thngquaccd_ntitr,utcs%h_tng,...ch0s'nycth_cnh_ngtc-ng

nh_t_nht_in_nkinht_qu'cdn.

Tml_ich0s'cngnghip;ch0s'bn7l;ch0s' utnhn _c_uth_hinchos_

phttri_nc"an_nkinht_c"aqu'cgia.Cth_ccnhnt'nys_tc-ngt_isu_tsinh

lic"ach_ngkhon.

T_tc_nh_n_nh%trnlnh_ngnh_n_nhbanumangtnhlthuy_tdov_ytcgi_s_
s!d_ngmhnhh,iquyOLS_ki_mch_ngccnhnt'trnctc -ngt_isu_tsinhli

c"aBBChaykhng?Tcgi_s_lo_ib1ccnhnt'khngth_cs_tc-ngt_iBBCvki
_m_nhs_ ng5nvt_ocs%v_ngch5cchomhnhAPM.

Hnh3.8K_tqu_ _clngt#su_tsinhlic"aBBCv_iccnhnt'vm

49

T+k_tqu_ _clngtrntanh_nth_yc1vinhnt'khng_nhh %ngt_isu_tsinh

lic"aBBC,vnhtrnhby%phntrntc_gis_lnltb1nhnt'khngth_cs_
tc-ngt_isu_tsinhliBBC.K_tqu_cu'icngnhsau

Hnh3.9K_tqu_ _clngcu'icngt#su_tsinhlic"aBBCv_iccnhnt'vm

T+k_tqu_trongb_ngtrntanh_nth_yr3ngccnhnt' _nhh %ngt_isu_tsinhlic"a

BBCbaog,m:T#su_tsinhlic"ach0s'Vnindex;Ch0s'gitiudngCPI;Ch0s'
,nglaM4USD;Ch0s'gidu.

Ccnhnt'khngtc-ngt_it#su_tsinhlic"aBBClch0s'cngnghip;Chnhlch
t.ngm_cbn7lHH&DV;T.ngm_cut,ch0s'givng.

K_tqu_mhnhnykhphhpvnkhngviph_mnh_nggi_thuy_tc. i_nnhhin
tngt_tngquan,ac-ngtuy_n,phngsaithay.i,b1stbi_nquantr_ng,phnd
phnph'ichu)n,d_uc"acchs'h,iquyphhp.Dok_tqu_ _clnglngtin
2

c_y(Ccki_m_nhnhkmtrongph_l_c2).K_tqu_R =0,6744chobi_tr3ngcc
nhnt'vmgi_ithch c67,44%s_thay.ic"at#su_tsinhlic"a

BBCvcaohnsov_imhnhCAPM.

RBBC=0,0614+0,962*RVN0,04*RCPI+0,417*Roil0,0561*RUSD

T+k_tqu_h,iquytrntanh_nth_yhs'betac"accnhnt'vmnhsau:

OIL=0,417; CPI =0,04; m=0,962; USD =0,0561

E(Rm)=11,27%

50

+Th_ngktrn2thtr 4ng

V_ilisu_tc"atriphi_ukh_n2nm(Rf)l9%

Lisu_tbnhqunth_tr &ngch_ngkhontrong(Rm)23,69%.

Ch0s'giCPIbnhquntrong20002009(R)l7%
CPI

Ch0s'gidubnhquntrong20002009(ROIL)l12,29%

Ch0s'gi,ngUSDtrongnm20002009(RUSD)l2,34%

Lisu_tphir"irobnhquntrong20012009(Rf)l8,9%.

(T_tc_cc'sliutrn cthuth_ptnhtonvnhkmtrongphnph_l_c2)V_icch
s'beta%trntacth_xc_nhhs't#su_tsinhlic"acngtyBBCl
RBBC=9%+0,962*(23,69%8,9%)0.04*(7%8,9%)0,0561*(2,34%8,9%)

+0,417x(12.29%8.9%)=25,1%

Nhv_ytheocchtnhmhnhAPMtht#su_tchi_tkh_uc"acngtyc.phnbnh

k/oBinHa(Bibica)l25,1%.

3.2.3K1th_pmhnhCAPMvlthuy
1tM&M

S_k_thpgi_amhnhCAPMvlthuy
_tM&Ml1s _ _ctnh1cchgin_tipt#

su_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhon(cbitl
'iv_icngtych alnsngiaod_chch_ng

khonvycnglcch _ctnhth_3trongvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u.

E[R]

VN

=E[R

cngngnh

]US
+RP+RP
e

+Su_tsinhliphir"iroc"aM4chnhlisu_ttriphi_uchnhph"kh_n10nm.Theos'
liuth'ngkthtrongthng3/2010thlisu_tphir"iroc"atriphi_uM4kh_n10nm
l:Rf=3,88%

+Su_tsinhlidanhm_cth_tr &ngc"aM4ch0s'ny cth_hinb3ngsu_tsinhli

trungbnhc.phi_um4kh_n10nmtronggiaio_n19282009

Su_tsinhliphir"irol_chs!c"aM4 ol &ngb%isu_tsinhlitrungbnhtriphi_uchnh
ph",19282009Rf=5,24%

M_cbr"iroth_tr &ngE(Rm)Rf=11.275.24=6,03%

51

M_cbr"irongo_ih'iRpE01/2010:lisu_tti_ng!iVNDvUSDkh_n1nmln
ltl10,5%v4,50%nnRPE=10,5%4%=6,5%

+M_cbr"iroqu'cgia.Theot.ch_cMoodysnhgithtrongnm20082009ch0
s'hs'tnnhimm%m_ctri_nv_ngl.n_nh%m_cBa3Rpc=5,25%

+Tnhhs'beta

Theonh_ngthngtin%th_tr &ngtichnhM4(nhkmtrongph_l_c).Hs'beta

US

khngvayn cthuth_pt+th_tr &ngM4pd_ngchoBBClU (Ngnhch_bi_n

th_cph)m_FoodProcessing)l0,69.

Hinnaym_cthu_thunh_pdoanhnghipmchnhph"VitNamangpd_nghincho
ccdoanhnghipVitNaml25%.

T+b_ngbocotichnh"cacngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica_BBC)nm
2009tac

D=vaynng5nh_n+vayvndih_n=213.556.430.725E=V'nch"s%h_u=
521.579.075.484
Nhv_yhs'betacvaynpd_ngchoBBCl

BBC

= U*(1+(1tc)*(D/E)

BBC

=0.69*(1+(125%)*(213.556.430.725/521,579,075,484)=0.902

Nhv_ytht#su_tchi_tkh_utnhtheomhnhk_thpCAPMvlthuy_tM&Ml:

RBBC=3.88%+0.902*6,03%+5.25%+6,5%=21,07%

Theocch _ctnhtheomhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&MthRBBC=21,07%.

Nhv_ytheo3cchtnh#tsu_tsinhlic"aBibicatheoccmhnhCAPM;APMv
CAPMk_thpv_iM&Mchochngtak_tqu_nhsau:

Mhnh
APM
CAPM
CAPMk1th_pM&M

BBC

25,1%
24,38%
21,07%

V_i3cch _ctnhnychotath_yr3ngv_iccmhnhkhcnhauthta_sct#su_t
sinhlikhcnhau.Trongccmhnhtrnththngth &ngmhnhAPMs_chot#su_t

52

sinhlicaohnmhnhCAPMb%ivmhnhAPM cphttri_nt+mhnhCAPM
vtrongmhnhthcnhi_unhnt' ol &ngbi_n-ngr"irotng ngv_iphnb
choccnhnt' s_lmchot#su_tsinhlicaohn.

3.3Xc2nhgitr2doanhnghi'pb?ngphngphpchi1tkh!udngc5t_c
(DDM)

3.3.1 _ctnht3l'l_inhu.ngi/l_ivt_c_tngtr 9ngl_inhu.n

Theonhphntrnphntchthtrongnm2009t#su_tsinhlitrnv'nch"s%h_u
(ROE)l11,03%vtheoquy_t_nhc"ah-i,ngc. ngtrongnm2009tht#lchi
tr_c.t_c _ctnhl12%trnmnhgi.cphi_u(10.000).(D_atheongh_quy_t_ih-i

,ngth &ngninnm2009ti_nhnh8h30ngy28/03/2009)

C.t_c cchianm2009lDIV=12%*10.000=1.200(,ng/c.phi_u)

S'lngc.phi_uangluhnhnm2009(Bocothunh_p)l15.420.782c.phi_u.

Trongnm2009linhu_nsauthu_c"acngty(Bocothunh_p)l57.292.527.028
(,ng).

Nhv_ys'ti_nchiac.t_cc"acngtyl:1.200*15.420.782=18.504.938.400(,ng).

T#lchiac.t_cc"acngtytrongnm2009l

18.504.938.400/57.292.527.028=32,3%

Theongh_quy_tc"ah-i,ngc. ngthtrongnm2009cngtys_trchl_pqu4d_
phngtichnh5%;qu4 utphttri_ncngty15%;qu4khenth %ngphclic"a
cngtyl5%.

T#llinhu_ngi_l_i_ti utc"acngtynm2009s_l:

132,3%5%15%5%=42,7%

Trongbinghinc_unytcgi_gi_ _nht#lti utdngtrong3nmti_ptheoc"a

cngtykhng.i%m_c42,7%vsau3nmcngtys_duytrm_cti uts_l45%
vcct#lnhtrchl_pccqu4v:n%m_c25%(Trongqu4d_phngtichnh5%;
Qu4 utphttri_ncngty15%;Qu4khenth %ngphclicngty5%)

53

Linhu_nsauthu_c"acngtytronggiai
o_n20052009
( nv_triu,ng)

Nm
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Linhu_nsauthu_
12.284
19.183
24.443
20.851
57.293

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

T'c-tngtr %nglinhu_nc"acngtytrong20052009l:

(57.293/12.284)^(1/4)1=47,0%

Theonh_n_nhthviccngtycth_duytrv_it'c-hinnaykoditrongvng3
nm.i_unycnghplb%il_tnhhnhkinht_x_unh_tlnm2008v unm
2009,tuynhincngtyvtquakhkhnv_tt'c-tngtr %nglinhu_nkh

cao.Trongtnglai3nmv_is_ i_uhnhc"abangim'ccngtyvv_itnhhnh
kinht_ngycng.n_nhthvicduytrt'c-tngtr %nglcth_ch_pnh_n c.

3.3.2D0bo_tc_tngtr 9ngv_nch_s9h/u

Hnh3.10Bi_u,v'nch"s%h_u20052009

600.000

521.579

494.429

500.000

400.000

300.000

206.996

183.359

200.000

96.771

100.000

Nm 2005 Nm 2006
Nm 2007 Nm 2008 Nm 2009

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

Trongccnmti_ptheov_it#llinhu_ngi_l_ichi_m42,7%linhu_nsauthu_c"acng
tygi_ _nhr3ngt#lny cduytrtrong3nmti_ptheo.Dov_yngu,nv'nch"s%h_u
c"acngtytronggiaio_nt+nm20102012nhsau.

54

Ngu,nv'nch"s%h_uc"acngtytrong20102012( nv_ ,ng)

Nm
2010
2011
2012

Ngu>nv_nch_s9h/u
557.531.246.522
610.365.389.095
688.008.728.592

3.3.3D0bo_tc_tngtr 9ngsau3nm

Sau3nmtheonhnh_nggi_ _nh%trnth#tllinhu_ngi_l_i_ti utc"acng

ty%m_c45%.

B_ng _ctnhROEc"acngtytrong20102012( nv_ ,ng)

Nm
2010
2011
2012

Linhu_nsauthu_
84.195.236.450
123.730.584.226
181.830.446.926

Ngu,nv'nCSH
557.531.246.522
610.365.389.095
688.008.728.592

ROE
15,10%
20,27%
26,43%

ROEbnhqun

20,60%

Sau3nmn_atht'c-tngtr %nglinhu_nc"acngtyl:

g=ROE*Reinvest

g=20.6%*45%=9,27%

Nhv_ysau3nmtngtr %ngnhanhthlinhu_nc"acngtytngtr %ngch_ml_i

v_i

t'c-9,27%.

3.3.4 _ctnhdngc5t_c _cchiahngnm

Nhv_ytrongccphntrnta _ctnh clinhu_nchiac.t_chngnmc"a

cngtycngnh _ctnh ct'c-tngtr %ngc"adngc.t_csau3nm.T+nh_ngs'

liu%trntacdngc.t_cc"acngtyhngnms_l:

B_ngs'liudngc.t_cd_ki_nc"acngtyBibicanm20102013
( nv_ ,ng)

Nm
2010
2011
2012
2013

DIV
1.763
2.592
3.808
5.198

55

3.3.5Phntch_nh_yc_at3su!tchi1tkh!u_iv_igitr2doanhnghi'p

Theonhk_tqu_ _ctnhtrongphn3.2%trnv_i3mhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u
lCAPM;MhnhAPM;k_thpmhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&Mthchota3

t#su_tchi_tkh_unhsau:

Mhnh
APM
CAPM
CAPMk1th_pM&M

BBC

25,1%
24,38%
21,07%

V_i3t#su_tchi_tkh_unhv_ys_chota c3gitr_c"av'nch"s%h_ucngnh3
gitr_cngty.

B_ng _ctnhgitr_v'nch"s%h_uvgitr_doanhnghiptheo3t#su_tchi_tkh_u

( nv_tnh,ng)

Mhnh
APM
CAPM
CAPMvM&M

BBC

25,1%
24,38%
21,07%
Gitr2c5phi1u(P)
21.784
22.952
30.196

S'lngc.phi_uluhnh
15.420.782
15.420.782
15.420.782

Gitr2v_nch_s9h/u(VE)
335.932.305.536
353.937.400.105
465.639.184.463

Gitr_c"akho_nn(VD)
213.556.430.725
213.556.430.725
213.556.430.725

Gitr2cngty(Vo)
549.488.736.261
567.493.830.830
679.195.615.188

(Tronggitr_c"acckho_nncngtytcgi_xc_nhtrnb_ngcn'ik_tonvgi_
_nhr3nggitr_th_ct_c"acckho_nnb3ngv_igitr_ghitrongs.schk_ton)

Nhv_ytacth_nh_nth_yr3ng'iv_im_imhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ukhc
nhaus_chotanh_ngk_tqu_khcnhau.Tng_ngv_it#su_tchi_tkh_ukhcnhauth
s_chotam-tgitr_doanhnghiphontonkhcnhau.

Gitr_c"av'nch"s%h_uc"acngtytheo3cchti_pc_nv_t#su_tchi_tkh_ugiao

-ngt+335t#932triu,ngt_i465t3639triu,ng.

Gitr_c"adoanhnghipv_i3cchti_pc_nv_t#su_tchi_tkh_us_giao-ngtrongm_c

549t3489triu,ngt_i679t3196triu,ng.

56

V_i3phngphp _ctnht#su_tchi_tkh_u_uchotacc#tsu_tchi_tkh_ukhcnhau,
dov_yvic _ctnhram_cgi.cphi_ucngnhgitr_doanhnghipcngkhcnhau'i
v_iccmhnh.Quab_ng _ctnhtrntanh_nth_yr3nggitr_c"acngtyc"acngtyr
_tnh_yv_ich0s't#su_tchi_tkh_u,th_hinr3ngkhit#su_tchi_tkh_uthay.inh1
cnglmchogitr_cngtythay.i1gitr_r_tl_n.

Trong3phngphpxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uthphngphp _ctnht#su_tchi_t
kh_utheomhnhkinhdoanhchnhlchgi(APM)lmhnhlmhnhphhpnh_t

'iv_icngtyc . phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica_BBC).B%ivcngtyBibica ln sn
ch_ngkhon1th&igiankhlu(2001)v" i_ukin_pd_ngphngphpny.

Nhv_ygitr_v'nch"s%h_uc"acngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica_BBC)t_i
th&ii_m31/12/2009l335t#932triu,ng.

(Ghib?ngch/:Batrmbaminmt3chntrmbamihaitri'u>ng)

Gitr_cngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinha(Bibica)th&ii_m31/12/2009l549t3489

triu,ng.

(Ghib?ngch/:Nmtrmbnmichnt3bntrmtmmichntri'u>ng)

Gitr_cngtyngy31/12/2008 cxc_nhb3ngphngphplith_thngm_i
(Goodwill)l505t#772triu.TheophngphpDDMgi_trdoanhnghip _ctnht_i
th&ii_m31/12/2009l549t#489triu,ngcaohngitr_cngty cxc_nh
31/12/2008i_unycngkhhplv:

Trongnm2009tnhhnhcngtycnhi_ukh%is5cth_hintrnbocotichnh"ac
cngtyr_tt't.

Trongnm2009cth_gitr_hint_ic"acngtytngthmdocngtymuathmmy
mcthi_tb_, ut,i_unylmchogitr_tis_nh_uhnhc"acngtytngln.

V_icccch_tipc_nphngphpxc_nhgitr_khcnhauthgi_trdoanhnghipcng
khcnhau.

57

CHNG4K_TLU&NVCCKI_NNGH _XU_T4.1K1tlu.n

Trongbinghinc_unythsaukhiphntchvs!ls'liuthtcgi_rtra cm-t

s'k_tlu_nnhsau:

'iv_imhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ukhcnhauth_schota1t#su_tchi_tkh_u
khcnhau.i_unyr_td_hi_ub%iv'iv_im_imhnhth_utuntheonhnggi_
_nhkhcnhauv_ucnh_ngunhci_mkhcnhau,'sliudavocngkhc
nhaunn#tsu_tchi_tkh_us_khcnhau.

Vicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_utheomhnhAPMih1ils'liuuvoph_inhi_u
hn,s!d_ngph_ct_phnccmhnhCAPMvCAPMk_thpv_ilthuy_tM&M.
Tuynhinvicxc_nhtheomhnhAPMthk_tqu_xttrnphngdinlthuy_tth
t'thnccmhnhcnl_ivnol &ng cnhi_unhnt'r"irohnccmhnh
khc.Dov_yvicpd_ngmhnhAPMth &ngchot#su_tchi_tkh_ucao.

MhnhCAPMlmhnhtichnh ngi_ns_th_chintuynhinmhnhnyl_id_a
trnqunhi_unh_nggi_ _nh.Th_ct_choth_yvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ub3ngm
hnhCAPMih1icnph_ickinhnghimvcni_uch0nhhs'beta_k_tqu_ _c
tnh ct'thn.

MhnhCAPMk_thpv_ilthuy_tM&Mthlmhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u
r_tt'tnh_tlccdoanhngh0pcha_ cnimy_ttrn%sgiaod_chch_ngkhontuy
nhinthvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_utheomhnhnyth &ngth_phnccmhnh
khcb%iv2nguynnhncb_nnhsau:(1)Gi_ _nhmhnhhnhlxc

_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uv_icngtyVitNamho_t-ngtrnth_tr &ngM4,th_tr &ngM4

v'nlth_tr &ngcl_chs!hnhthnhvphttri_nr_tlu&ihth'ngtichnhvphp
lu_tkhhonthintrongkhiVitNamlth_tr &ngm_ihnhthnhdov_y%th_tr
&ngVitNams_cnh_ngr"iroti_mtngcaohnl%M4.Tuyr3ngcnh_ngphnb
r"irot#givqu'cgianhngv:ncha" _nih_t cnh_ngr"iroc"acngty.(2)
Vicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uc"acngtyl_ytheongnh.Thng

58

th &ng%th_tr &ngM4 .n_nhhndov_yhs'betac"angnhth &ngkhngph_n

nhng cm_c-r"iroc"a1cngty nl7.Tuynhin_sk_thpv_imhnhCAPM
vM&Mv_nlm-tmhnht't_xc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uc"acngty.

Gitr_c"acngtyc.phnbnhk/oBibicatheonhcch _ctnht+mhnhchi_tkh_u
dngc.t_c(DDM)v_i3phngphpxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ugiao-ngtrong549t3
489triu,ngt_i679t3196triu,ng.

V_i3mhnhxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_ukhcnhauchogi_trcngtykhcnhau.Tuy
nhinvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_utheomhnhAPMlphhpnh_tv_icngtyc.phn
bnhk/oBinHa(Bibica).Nhv_ygitr_cngtyc.phnbnhk/oBibicat_ith&i
i_m31/12/2009l549t#489triu,ng.

4.2Nh/ngki1nngh2 _xu!t

V_im_icch _ctnht#su_tchi_tkh_uthtas_nh_n cm-tt#su_tchi_tkh_uvta

cth_ch_nl_at#su_tchi_tkh_un3mtrongkho_ngitr_ _ctnh_phhpv_it+ng
cngtyc_th_vv_it+ngm_cchc_th_khixc_nhgitr_doanhnghip.

'iv_icccngtychalnsngiaod_chb_t-ngs_nthtav:ncth_ _ctnht#su_t
chi_tkh_u cb3ngs_k_thpgi_amhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&M.Tuynhinnh
trnhby%trnvicxc_nhtheomhnhnycnh_ngh_nch_ %trndov_ytcgi_c
3ki_nngh_v_mhnhnhsau:

(1)Tacnnghin_cus_chnhlchv_s_t#su_tchi_tkh_uc"acccngtytheomhnh
CAPMvs_k_thpmhnhCAPMvlthuy_tM&M._cth_ i_uch0nhtng
ho(cgi_mt#su_tchi_tkh_uchophhpv_im_cchc"avicth)m_nh.

Tacnnghin_cuthm_schnhlchgi_ach0s'betatheomhnhCAPMvs_k_thp
CAPMvlthuy_tM&M.N_unhcs_khcbitnythr_td_xc_nh chs'beta
c"acngtychalnsnvs_d_dngtnh ct#su_tchi_tkh_uphhp.

Trongtnglaitacnph_ixc_nh _ctnhhs'chi_tkh_uc"angnhvtrungbnh
ngnh.

59

Khiti_nhnhnghinc_ubinghinc_unytcgi_g(pnh_ngkhkhntrongvictm
s'liuvtmnh_ngtiliulinquan.Dov_ytcgi_ _su_tki_nngh_cccngtyth)m

_nhgicnchth'ngthngkccch0s' _vicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_u ct't

hn.

4.3H_nch1c_a_ti

Trongbinghinc_utcgi_m_ich0 i _ctnht#su_tchi_tkh_uchom-tcngtyl
cngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica)n_unhcthmth&igiantcgi_s_cth_
_ctnhthm#tsu_tchi_tkh_uchoccdoanhnghiptrnth_th_tr &ng.

Trongnghinc_unytcgi_m_ich0 _c_pt_iccphngphpch_chanu c
nh_ngs_chnhlchgi_accphngphp.ycth_lbinghinc_ur_tt'tcho

nh_ngnghinc_uti_ptheov_hs'betavt#su_tchi_tkh_u.

Vicxc_nhgitr_doanhnghiptcgi_cha_c_pnhi_umch0mangtnhch_tgi_i
thiuccmhnhth)m_nhgitr_doanhnghip.

Dovich_nch_v_m(ts'liunncnm-ts'ccnhnt'vmkhccha cvotrong
mhinhAPMnht'c-tngtr %ngGDP,Ch0s'b_t-ngs_n,ch0s'ni_mtin,ch0s'
th_pnghip,ycnglphnm_ichonh_ngnghin_cuti_ptheov_mhnhAPM.

Bn_cnhvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_utheo3mhnhtrnthhinnaycnccc

mhnhkhcn_amtcgi_khng_c_plmhnhphntchnhnt';mhnh

CAPManhnt';mhnhdanhm_cuthiuqu_c"aMarkowitz.yl3mhnh

m_i cpd_ngkhngluvcth_hiuqu_trongvicxc_nht#su_tchi_tkh_uc"a

doanhnghip.

DANHMCTILI_UTHAMKH_O
AlexFrino,Zhianchen,AmeliaHile,CarolecomertonFordeandSimoneKelly(2006)
Introductiontocorporatefinance,EducationAustralia.

B_ngk_tqu_ho_t-ngs_nxu_tkinhdoanhc"acngtyBibica(3/2010)
http://www.cophieu68.com

B-tichnh/c_cqu_nlgi,Tiliub,id 8ngki_nth_cng5nh_nchuynngnhth)m
_nhgi,NhXu_tB_nHN-i.

Damodaran(2007)EstimatingRiskRarameters,Workingpaper,SternShoolofBusiness,
NYU.

st

Damodaran(2002);CorporateFinance1 Edition,McGrawHill.

nd

Damodaran(2002)InvestmentVuluation,2 Edition,McGrawHill.

Damodaranonline,truyc_pngy10/4/2010t_i_ach0

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

onV nTr &ng,Ccphngphpth)m _nhgatis _n,NXBTh'ngK

Haysinh(2008)Tiliumnh_cTh)m_nhgitr_doanhnghip,Gi_ngvintr &ng_i
h_cKinhT_TP.HCM

NgKimPhng,LTh_ThanhH,LM_nhHng,LHongVinh(2007)Phntchti
chnhdoanhnghipTr &ng_iH_cNgnHngTPHCM

Nguy_nT_nBnh,(2008)Phntchho_t-ngdoanhnghip,NXBTh'ngK

Nguy_nTh_LinHoa.Nguy_nTh_Ng_cTrang,(2007)Phntchtichnhdoanhnghip,
Tr &ng_iH_cKinhT_TP.HCM,NXBTh'ngK.

Nguy_nVnh(2008),*ngd_ngphngphpARCHchod_bosu_tsinhlivr"iroc"a
VNindex,lu_nvnt'tnghip.

Nguy_nXunThnh(2009),bigi_ng20:Mhnh_nhgitis_nv'nCAPM,Chng
trnhgi_ngd_yKinht_Fulbright.

Nguy_nXunThnh(2009),bigi_ng12:_nhgitriphi_u,Khang5nh_nChng
trnhGi_ngd_yKinht_Fulbright.

Nguy_nMinhHong(2006),Nguynlchung_nhgitis_nvgitr_doanhnghip,
NXBTh'ngKHN-i.

Lthuy_t_nhgikinhdoanhchnhchl(2007),www.saga.vn

Ph_mVnDc(2008),Phntchho_t-ngkinhdoanh,Tr &ng_iH_cKinhT_

TP.HCM,NXBTh'ngK

PhngThanhBnh(2009)bigi_ng _clngt#su_tchi_tkh_u,gi_ngvinkhoaKTPT
Tr &ng_ih_cKinhT_TP.HCM.

Thngtinv_cngtyBibica(3/2010)http://www.bibica.com.vn

T.ngc_cth'ngkVitNam(3/2010),http://www.gso.gov.vn

TrnNg_cTh(2005)Tichnhdoanhnghiphin_i,Tr &ng_iH_cKinhT_

TP.HCM,NXBTh'ngK.

TrnTh_Ng_cDi_m(2008),*ngd_ngcclthuy_thin_itrongvicol &ngr"iro
c"accch_ngkhonlim_ytt_is%giaod_chch_ngkhonthnhph'H,ChM_nh.Lu_n
vnTh_cS4KinhT_.

TrnTi_nKhai,TrngngTh_y;LngVinhQu'cDuy,Nguy_nTh_SongAn,
Nguy_nHongL(2008)Phngphpnghin_cukinht_,KhoaKTPTtr &ngHKinh
T_TPHCM.

S'liusu_tsinhlic"ach_ngkhonHoaK:http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic
finance/debtmanagement/interestrate/yield.shtml

S'liusu_tsinhlich_ngkhon:http://cophieu68.com.

S'liuduthth_gi_i:http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/

StevenRRishop,HarreyRCracpp,RobertFaff,GarryJTwite,(2000)CorporateFinance,
EducationAustralia.

PHLC
Ph_l_c1:Mhnh2nhgitis(nv_n(CAPM)

1.1B(ngs_li'u

1.1.1B(ngs_li'uv_t3su!tsinhl_ic_ach_ngkhonbibicavVnindextheothng

T
R

BBC

Rvn
T

BBC

Rvn
th106
4,57%
1,56%

th108
18,50%
8,94%

th206
4,80%
25,10%

th208
0,00%
21,42%

th306
54,17%
28,90%

th308
15,95%
22,07%

th406
31,08%
18,25%

th408
17,52%
1,06%

th506
24,74%
9,50%

th508
25,84%

20,73%

th606
1,92%
4,32%

th608
35,56%
3,55%

th706
22,04%
18,08%

th708

20,74%
13,02%

th806
25,52%
16,29%

th808
41,59%
19,43%

th906
1,65%
7,23%

th908
25,08%
15,28%

th1006
6,76%
2,89%

th1008
30,84%
24,00%

th1106
3,19%
23,77%

th1108
6,37%
9,33%

th1206
17,98%
18,75%

th1208
3,40%
0,29%

th107
22,62%

38,51%

th109
4,93%
3,93%

th207
12,62%
9,26%

th209
22,22%
18,96%

th307

12,07%
5,84%

th309
30,48%
14,25%

th407
24,15%
13,76%

th409
18,98%
14,57%

th507
19,68%
17,06%

th509
62,58%
27,99%

th607
10,17%
5,25%

th609
14,72%
8,92%

th707
22,64%
11,39%

th709
6,91%
4,13%

th807
19,23%
0,04%

th809
18,15%
24,44%

th907
30,32%
15,25%

th909
0,78%
1,07%

th1007
8,91%
1,74%

th1009
6,82%
14,14%

th1107
5,45%
8,70%

th1109
12,11%
1,84%

th1207
3,85%
4,67%

th1209
8,65%
2,59%

Ngu,ns'liu:T.ngh
pt+trangWebcophieu68.com

B(ngs_li'ulisu!ttriphi1uchnhph_vsu!tsinhl_ic_aVNindex

Nm
VNIndex
Lisu!t
Nm
VNIndex
Lisu!t

TPCP2nm

TPCP2nm

2001
13,81%
6,85%
2006
144,48%
8,60%

2002
22,12%
7,33%
2007
23,31%
8,10%

2003
8,94%
8,20%
2008
65,95%
15,30%

2004
43,34%
8,30%
2009
56,79%
8,81%

2005
28,51%
8,42%

Trungbnh
23,69%
8,9%

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com

1.2K1tqu(h>iquyt3su!tsinhl_ic_aBBCtheot3su!tsinhl_ic_aVnindex

Unstandardized
Standardized

Coefficients
Coefficients

CollinearityStatistics

Model

t
Sig.

B
Std.Error
Beta

Tolerance
VIF

(Constant)
,006
,022

,272
,787

rvn
1,061
,140
,746
7,592
,000
1,000
1,000

1.3Ccki_m2nhtrongmhnhtrongmhnhh>iquyt3su!tsinhl_ic_aBBC
theot3su!tsinhl_ich_ngkhonVnindex

1.3.1Ki_m2nhphngsaithay5i(ki_m2nhWhite)

Ch0s'Obs*Rsquared=4,113v_igitr_Pvalue=0,1279>0.05.Nhv_yv_im_cm_c

-tinc_y95%tacth_nh_n_nhr3ngmhnhtrnkhngb_hintngphngsai

thay.i.

1.3.2Ki_m2nhhi'nt _ngt0tngquan(Ki_m2nhBreuschGodfrey)

Ch0s'Obs*Rsquared=0,4276v_igitr_Pvalue=0,8075>0.05.Nhv_yv_im_c

m_c-tinc_y95%tacth_nh_n_nhr3ngmhnhkhngb_hint
ngt_tngquan.

1.3.3Ki_m2nhph8ndphnph_ichu7n

10

Series: Residuals

Sample 1 48

Observations 48

Mean
-2.89e-18

Median
-0.004145

Maximum
0.341352

Minimum
-0.351376

Std. Dev.
0.146531

Skewness

0.017077

Kurtosis
3.284910

Jarque-Bera
0.164680

Probability
0.920959

-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3

T+bi_u,trntanh_nth_yphndc"amhnhOLSphnph'itng'ichu)n.

Nhv_yt+k_tqu_h,iquyvccki_m_nhtrntanh_nth_yr3ngmhnhh,iquyr_t
phhpvm_c-tinc_ycao.

Ph_l_c2Mhnhkinhdoanhchnh'lchgi(APM)

2.1B(ngs_li'us<d_ngtrongmhnhAPM

2.1.1B(ngs_li'uv_mhnhh>iquy

Th4igian

BBC

CPI
OIL
Rvn
USD
vng
BUY
CN
Invest
th106
4,57%
1,20%
10,78%
1,56%
0,00%
4,00%
4,44%
13,23%
54,12%

th206
4,80%
2,10%
4,41%
25,10%
0,10%
5,40%
5,41%
1,51%
2,14%

th306
54,17%
0,50%
3,07%
28,90%
0,10%
1,80%
2,38%
8,09%
44,51%

th406
31,08%
0,20%
13,21%
18,25%
0,10%
4,80%
8,85%

5,26%
8,77%

th506
24,74%
0,60%
0,68%
9,50%
0,80%
17,60%
1,71%
2,46%
7,98%

th606
1,92%
0,40%
1,75%
4,32%
0,30%
5,60%
11,12%
1,72%
8,34%

th706
22,04%
0,40%
7,45%
18,08%
0,20%

3,10%
12,02%
2,07%
4,74%

th806
25,52%
0,40%
0,60%
16,29%
0,10%
2,30%
6,02%
1,85%
14,67%

th906
1,65%
0,30%
15,39%
7,23%
0,10%
2,90%
11,87%
2,45%
4,29%

th1006
6,76%
0,20%
6,70%

2,89%
0,20%
3,10%
5,27%
0,81%
2,94%

th1106
3,19%
0,60%
1,64%
23,77%
0,20%
1,70%
3,64%
0,45%
13,83%

th1206
17,98%
0,50%
6,31%
18,75%
0,00%
3,20%
7,22%
8,05%
10,73%

th107
22,62%

1,10%
14,07%
38,51%
0,10%
1,10%
1,09%
2,62%
11,19%

th207
12,62%
2,20%
7,23%
9,26%
0,20%
2,10%
2,36%
18,98%
14,80%

th307
12,07%
0,20%
7,80%
5,84%
0,10%
2,60%
6,52%
13,33%
42,39%

th407
24,15%
0,50%
8,77%
13,76%
0,10%
1,10%
6,84%
4,28%
4,73%

th507
19,68%
0,77%
0,41%
17,06%
0,20%
2,30%
6,46%
3,30%
11,59%

th607
10,17%
0,90%
5,71%
5,25%
0,30%
2,00%
1,63%
4,07%
1,38%

th707
22,64%
0,94%
8,28%
11,39%
0,20%
0,60%
1,76%
0,32%
3,06%

th807
19,23%
0,55%
8,02%
0,04%
0,20%
1,50%
12,20%

1,72%
1,16%

th907
30,32%
0,51%
9,06%
15,25%
0,60%
1,90%
19,78%
3,85%
12,48%

th1007
8,91%
0,74%
6,70%
1,74%
0,60%
6,04%
2,15%
0,55%
3,33%

th1107
5,45%
1,23%
12,23%
8,70%
0,30%

8,90%
12,41%
4,27%
3,08%

th1207
3,85%
2,91%
1,60%
4,67%
0,20%
2,10%
0,18%
7,37%
3,98%

th108
18,50%
2,38%
1,37%
8,94%
0,26%
5,07%
6,58%
5,50%
35,70%

th208
0,00%
3,56%
3,05%

21,42%
0,10%
5,90%
13,72%
9,37%
0,26%

th308
15,95%
2,99%
9,11%
22,07%
1,50%
6,50%
17,27%
17,05%
17,95%

th408
17,52%
2,20%
5,24%
1,06%
1,20%
2,10%
3,92%
1,96%
6,01%

th508
25,84%

3,91%
12,59%
20,73%
1,02%
3,90%
6,22%
1,05%
21,14%

th608
35,56%
2,14%
7,75%
3,55%
4,69%
4,36%
0,01%
2,17%
24,62%

th708
20,74%
1,13%
0,30%
13,02%
1,83%
3,20%

1,40%
0,61%
0,39%

th808
41,59%
1,56%
14,68%
19,43%
2,96%
2,96%
2,77%
0,35%
1,05%

th908
25,08%
0,18%
14,14%
15,28%
0,75%
6,36%
31,80%
0,91%
1,10%

th1008
30,84%
0,19%
26,38%
24,00%

0,05%
3,21%
56,33%
0,16%
17,37%

th1108
6,37%
0,76%
26,73%
9,33%
2,10%
5,80%
2,66%
0,52%
28,11%

th1208
3,40%
0,68%
23,83%
0,29%
1,14%
0,78%
6,83%
7,14%
24,72%

th109
4,93%
0,32%

4,41%
3,93%
1,48%
3,64%
3,08%
1,45%
32,83%

th209
22,22%
1,17%
3,86%
18,96%
0,91%
5,74%
13,52%
14,94%
3,97%

th309
30,48%
0,17%
7,48%
14,25%
0,19%
5,44%
3,87%
8,58%
35,07%

th409

18,98%
0,35%
7,77%
14,57%
1,25%
1,40%
1,81%
4,23%
4,52%

th509
62,58%
0,44%
14,19%
27,99%
1,25%
0,61%
1,97%
1,98%
0,03%

th609
14,72%
0,55%
18,15%
8,92%
1,05%
0,09%
2,89%
3,21%
51,66%

th709
6,91%
0,52%
4,55%
4,13%
0,85%
0,43%
1,72%
1,18%
1,71%

th809
18,15%
0,24%
10,53%
24,44%
0,13%
1,75%
2,18%

3,35%
9,04%

th909
0,78%
0,62%
4,98%
1,07%
0,23%
2,04%
3,35%
3,68%
12,42%

th1009
6,82%
0,37%
4,85%
14,14%
0,35%
5,01%
3,89%
0,75%
6,82%

th1109
12,11%
0,55%
7,07%
1,84%
1,45%

10,08%
8,11%
1,00%
13,85%

th1209
8,65%
0,96%
4,05%
2,59%
3,19%
10,49%
5,74%
2,54%
36,68%

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.comvwww.gso.gov.vn

2.1.2B(ngs_li'usu!tsinhl_ith2tr 4ngvch6s_USD;CPI;d8uththeonm

Nm
Ch6s_giUSD
CPI
Ch6s_d8uth
VNindex
Rf
2000
1,70%
0,60%
60,31%

2001
2,30%
0,80%
18,26%
13,81%
6,85%
2002
2,50%
4,00%
2,49%
22,12%
7,33%

2003
1,69%
4,30%
18,79%
8,94%
8,20%
2004

1,57%
7,80%
32,34%
43,34%
8,30%
2005
0,56%
8,40%
28,49%
28,51%
8,42%

2006
0,95%
7,50%
12,94%
144,48%
8,60%

2007
0,62%
8,30%
6,90%
23,31%
8,10%

2008
2,35%
23,00%
37,03%
65,95%
15,30%
2009
9,17%
6,88%
53,18%
56,79%

8,81%
Trungbnh
2,34%
7,0%
12,29%
23,69%
8,9%

Ngu,ns'liu:cophieu68.com;www.gso.gov.vn;http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/

2.2K1tqu(h>iquymhnhAPM

2.2.1K1tqu(h>iquyt3su!tsinhl_ic_aBBCtheoccnhnt_vml8n8u

2.2.2K1tqu(h>iquyt3su!tsinhl_ic_aBBCtheoccnhnt_vml8ncu_i

Trongccnhnt'b_lo_itrongmhnhh,iquytrncnhnt':ch0s'cngnghip;
ch0

s'vng;ch0s' utnhn _c;ch0s't.ngm_cbn7lHH&DV.ngquantml

ch0s'bn7lHH&DV.

10

Ch0s'HH&DVlch0s'vm_idinchot.ngm_cbn7lvhanghac"a1qu'cgia.
Trong1_tn _cthbaog,mr_tnhi_ungnh,ngnhbnhk/och0l1phnr_tnh1trong
tonb-ngnhc"aqu'cgia.Dov_yt.ngm_cHH&DVc"angnhbnhk/ocngchi_m
t#lkhim'tntrongtonb-ngnh.Khit.ngm_cb_nl7HH&DVc"angnhbnhk/o
tngtuynhin.tngm_chnghabnl7c"aqu'cgiakhngthay.inhi_u.

i_unycth _ lmch 0 s' t.ngm_cbn 7lhnghac "aqu'cgiakhngtc -ngm_nh

t_isu_tsinhlic"ac.phi_uBibica.

2.3Cckim2nhtrongmhnhAPM

2.3.1Kim2nhhi'nt ngphngsaithay5itrongmhnh

Ch0s'Obs*Rsquared=11,31v_igitr_Pvalue=0,6616>0.05.Nhv_yv_im_cm_c

- tinc_y95%tacth _ nh_n _nhr3ngmhnhtrnkhngb _ hint ngphngsai

thay.i.

2.3.2Kim2nhhi'nt ngt0tngquantrongmhnhAPM

Ch0s'Obs*Rsquared=0,5078v_igitr_Pvalue=0,7758>0.05.Nhv_yv_im_c
m_c-tinc_y95%tacth_nh_n_nhr3ngi_unychoth_ymhnhtrnkhngb_

hintngt_tngquan.
11

2.3.3Ki_m2nhph8ndthay5itrongmhnhAPM
5

-0.2
-0.1
-0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
3

Series: Residuals

Sample 1 48

Observations 48
1

Mean
-4.63e-18
Median
-0.014865
Maximum
0.323649
0

Minimum
-0.247494
Std. Dev.

0.125498

Jarque-Bera

Skewness

2.212827

0.511938

Probability

Kurtosis

0.330743

3.241018

T+bi_u,trntanh_nth_yphndc"amhnhOLSphnph'itng'ichu)n.

2.3.4Ki_m2nhb@stbi1nquantr_ngtrongmhnhAPM

Tacgitr_F=2,83v_igitr_Pvalue=0,0998>0,05nhv_yv_im_cngha95%ta

cth_k_tlu_nr3ngmhnhh,iquykhngb1stbi_nquantr_ng.

2.3.5Ki_m2nhhi'nt _ngac_ngtuy1ntrongmhnhAPM

Unstandardized
Standardized

Collinearity

Coefficients
Coefficients

Statistics

Model

t
Sig.

B
Std.Error
Beta

Tolerance
VIF

(Constant)
,061
,028

2,218
,032

rvn
,962
,129
,676
7,435
,000
,915
1,093

oil

,417
,194
,198
2,151
,037
,891
1,122

usd
5,610
1,705
,288
3,290
,002
,986
1,014

cpi
3,998
2,024
,188
1,975
,055

,839
1,192

T+k_tqu_ki_m_nhtrntanh_nth_yccch0s'VIF<5nhv_ytacth_k_tlu_n
r3ng

mhnhAPMkhngb_hintngac-ngtuy_n.

12

Ph_l_c3:S0k1th_pmhnhCAPMvlthuy1tM&M

T3su!tsinhl_ic_ath2tr 4ngch_ngkhonM-,t3su!tsinhl_ic_alisu!ttri
phi1uchnhph_kh_n10nm

Nm
C.phi_u
Triphi_u
Nm
C.phi_u
Triphi_u

1928
43,81%
0,84%
1970
3,56%
16,75%

1929
8,30%
4,20%
1971
14,22%
9,79%

1930
25,12%
4,54%
1972
18,76%
2,82%

1931
43,84%
2,56%
1973
14,31%
3,66%

1932
8,64%
8,79%
1974
25,90%
1,99%

1933
49,98%
1,86%
1975

37,00%
3,61%

1934
1,19%
7,96%
1976
23,83%
15,98%

1935
46,74%
4,47%
1977
6,98%
1,29%

1936
31,94%
5,02%
1978
6,51%
0,78%

1937
35,34%
1,38%
1979
18,52%
0,67%

1938
29,28%
4,21%
1980
31,74%
2,99%

1939
1,10%
4,41%
1981
4,70%
8,20%

1940
10,67%
5,40%
1982

20,42%
32,81%

1941
12,77%
2,02%
1983
22,34%
3,20%

1942
19,17%
2,29%
1984
6,15%
13,73%

1943
25,06%
2,49%
1985
31,24%
25,71%

1944
19,03%
2,58%
1986
18,49%
24,28%

1945
35,82%
3,80%
1987
5,81%
4,96%

1946
8,43%
3,13%
1988
16,54%
8,22%

1947
5,20%
0,92%
1989

31,48%
17,69%

1948
5,70%
1,95%
1990
3,06%
6,24%

1949
18,30%
4,66%
1991
30,23%
15,00%

1950
30,81%
0,43%
1992
7,49%
9,36%

1951
23,68%
0,30%
1993
9,97%
14,21%

1952
18,15%
2,27%
1994
1,33%
8,04%

1953
1,21%
4,14%
1995
37,20%
23,48%

1954
52,56%
3,29%
1996

23,82%
1,43%

1955
32,60%
1,34%
1997
31,86%
9,94%

1956
7,44%
2,26%
1998
28,34%
14,92%

13

1957
10,46%
6,80%
1999
20,89%
8,25%

1958
43,72%
2,10%
2000
9,03%
16,66%

1959

12,06%
2,65%
2001
11,85%
5,57%

1960
0,34%
11,64%
2002
21,97%
15,12%

1961
26,64%
2,06%
2003
28,36%

0,38%

1962
8,81%
5,69%
2004
10,74%
4,49%

1963
22,61%
1,68%
2005
4,83%
2,87%

1964
16,42%
3,73%
2006
15,61%
1,96%

1965
12,40%
0,72%
2007
5,48%
10,21%

1966

9,97%
2,91%
2008
36,58%
20,10%

1967
23,80%
1,58%
2009
25,92%
11,12%

1968
10,81%
3,27%
Bnhqun

11,272%
5,243%

1969
8,24%
5,01%
Briroth2tr4ng
6,03%

Ngu>ntili'u:http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

3.2B(ng2nhm_ctnnhi'mc_at5ch_cMoodysnm2009t_ichu

LongTerm
Adj.Default

TotalRisk
CountryRisk
Country
Rating
Spread
Premium
Premium

Cambodia
B2
550
12,75%
8,25%

China
A1
90
5,85%
1,35%

FijiIslands
B1
450
11,25%
6,75%

HongKong
Aa2
60
5,40%
0,90%

India
Ba2
300

9,00%
4,50%

Indonesia
Ba2
300
9,00%
4,50%

Japan
Aa2
60
5,40%
0,90%

Korea

A2
105
6,08%
1,58%

Macao
Aa3
75
5,63%
1,13%

Malaysia
A3
120
6,30%
1,80%

Mongolia
B1
450
11,25%
6,75%

Pakistan
B3
650
14,25%
9,75%

PapuaNewGuinea
B1
450
11,25%
6,75%

Philippines
Ba3
350
9,75%
5,25%

14

Singapore
Aaa
0
4,50%
0,00%

Taiwan
Aa3
75
5,63%
1,13%

Turkey
Ba3
350
9,75%
5,25%

Thailand
Baa1
160
6,90%
2,40%

Vietnam
Ba3
350
9,75%
5,25%

Ngu>ntiliu:http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

3.3B(nglisu!tc_angnhngVietcombank(01/2010)

Kh_n

Lisu!t

VND(%/nm)

USD(%/nm)

12thng

10.499

24thng

10.499

4.2

Ngu,ns'liu:laisuat.vn

3.4B(ngth_ngk'hs_betakhngvayn_c_accngnhc_aM-

Unlevered

Number

Beta

of
Average
Market D/E

Unlevered

Cash/Firm

corrected

Industry Name
Firms
Beta
Ratio

Tax Rate

Beta

Value

for cash

Advertising
36
1,6
72,76%

13,01%

0,98

11,92%

1,12

Aerospace/Defense
67
1,19
22,94%

20,05%

7,90%

1,09

Air Transport
44
1,06
70,74%

17,63%

0,67

11,84%

0,76

Apparel
56

1,3
23,61%

16,54%

1,09

6,95%

1,17

Auto & Truck

22
1,72
154,47%

13,25%

0,74

11,75%

0,83

Auto Parts
54
1,75
51,24%

12,09%

1,21

12,38%

1,38

Bank
481
0,75
198,22%

17,50%

0,28

10,36%

0,32

Bank (Canadian)
7
0,86
16,44%

14,94%

0,76

7,37%

0,82

Bank (Midwest)
39
0,96
110,54%

20,65%

0,51

9,63%

0,57

Beverage
41
1,04
16,92%

12,12%

0,9

3,20%

0,93

Biotechnology
121
1,1
14,78%

4,46%

0,96

14,59%

1,12

Building Materials
53
1,45
83,80%

14,56%

0,84

5,48%

0,89

Cable TV
24
1,69
85,22%

21,86%

1,02

4,02%

1,06

Canadian Energy
10
1,18
30,86%

26,99%

0,96

2,32%

0,98

Chemical (Basic)
17
1,27
20,37%

21,59%

1,1

6,74%

1,18

Chemical (Diversified)
31
1,37
19,85%

20,84%

1,19

4,73%

1,25

Chemical (Specialty)
97
1,29
29,01%

12,86%

1,03

4,17%

1,08

Coal
21
1,67
23,68%

13,15%

1,39

4,31%

1,45

Computer
333
1,02
5,61%

10,12%

0,97

10,34%

1,08

15

Software/Svcs

Computers/Peripherals

129

1,29

10,93%

8,65%

1,17

12,20%

1,33

Diversified Co.

121

1,2

138,78%

18,93%

0,57

11,12%

0,64

Drug

337

1,11

12,58%

5,62%

0,99

7,79%

1,07

E-Commerce

56

1,18

8,74%

13,50%

1,09

11,63%

1,24

Educational Services

38

0,75

7,21%

24,06%

0,71

8,58%

0,78

Electric Util. (Central)

23

0,79

102,89%

32,27%

0,47

2,31%

0,48

Electric Utility (East)

24

0,73

75,74%

33,77%

0,49

1,70%

0,5

Electric Utility (West)

14

0,75

89,99%

32,45%

0,47

4,25%

0,49

Electrical Equipment

87

1,41

16,91%

14,07%

1,23

7,16%

1,33

Electronics

183

1,16

26,37%

10,63%

0,94

14,90%

1,1

Entertainment

95

1,81

56,83%

11,78%

1,21

6,56%

1,29

Entertainment Tech

35

1,32

11,72%

6,28%

1,19

22,36%

1,53

Environmental

91

0,97

49,42%

14,27%

0,68

2,49%

0,7

Financial Svcs. (Div.)

296

1,39

305,02%

16,53%

0,39

15,76%

0,47

Food Processing

121

0,86

29,31%

17,29%

0,69

3,79%

0,72

Foreign Electronics

1,13

29,12%

10,71%

0,9

22,65%

1,16

Funeral Services

1,19

56,52%

24,34%

0,83

3,51%

0,86

Furn/Home

Furnishings

35

1,52

38,54%

17,48%

1,16

6,12%

1,23

Healthcare

Information

33

0,97

13,57%

17,80%

0,87

6,85%

0,94

Heavy Construction

14

1,42

7,58%

33,76%

1,35

16,86%

1,63

Homebuilding

28

1,45

102,34%

1,42%

0,72

26,11%

0,98

Hotel/Gaming

74

1,74

85,90%

12,93%

6,19%

1,06

Household Products

23

1,15

22,36%

24,87%

0,98

2,23%

Human Resources

30

1,38

13,17%

23,63%

1,25

14,81%

1,47

Industrial Services

168

1,07

33,96%

17,89%

0,84

8,10%

0,91

Information Services

29

1,28

23,68%

19,37%

1,08

3,91%

1,12

Insurance (Life)

31

1,38

36,81%

22,47%

1,07

38,96%

1,75

Insurance (Prop/Cas.)

85

0,92

24,03%

15,68%

0,76

23,51%

Internet

239

1,04

2,28%

5,94%

1,02

9,53%

1,13

Investment Co.

19

0,76

59,26%

0,00%

0,48

72,09%

1,71

Investment

Co.(Foreign)

16

1,39

9,38%

2,10%

1,27

6,84%

1,36

Machinery

130

1,32

46,80%

20,41%

0,96

6,70%

1,03

Manuf. Housing/RV

15

1,21

3,98%

14,80%

1,17

13,51%

1,35

Maritime

53

1,38

159,57%

9,70%

0,57

6,93%

0,61

Medical Services

162

0,97

43,09%

18,84%

0,72

10,96%

0,81

Medical Supplies

264

1,04

11,36%

11,24%

0,95

6,57%

1,02

Metal Fabricating

36

1,54

18,80%

18,10%

1,33

11,77%

1,51

Metals & Mining (Div.)

79

1,23

14,78%

7,41%

1,08

2,81%

1,11

Natural Gas (Div.)

32

1,29

47,84%

25,01%

0,95

2,44%

0,97

Natural Gas Utility

24

0,68

80,53%

24,87%

0,42

2,69%

0,43

16

Newspaper
15
1,94
55,65%
27,26%

1,38
3,68%
1,44
Office Equip/Supplies
25
1,19
56,84%
22,62%

0,83
6,73%
0,89
Oil/Gas Distribution
19
0,89
61,46%
7,15%

0,56
1,83%
0,58
Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
113
1,45
25,97%

22,05%

1,21
4,77%
1,27
Packaging & Container
31
1,2
61,31%
18,18%

0,8
4,26%
0,83
Paper/Forest Products
39
1,63
86,48%
7,70%

0,91
5,49%
0,96
Petroleum

(Integrated)

24
1,24
14,44%
33,00%

1,13
6,13%
1,21
Petroleum (Producing)
198
1,16
27,01%
11,27%

0,94
3,10%
0,97
Pharmacy Services
21
0,88
20,07%
24,36%

0,76
3,23%
0,79
Power
77
1,23
103,58%
7,00%

0,63
9,56%

0,69
Precious Metals
78
1,18
8,49%
8,41%

1,1
2,94%
1,13
Precision Instrument
98
1,24
15,02%
10,50%

1,09
12,53%
1,24
Property Management
20
1,63
191,86%
9,03%

0,59
5,94%
0,63
Public/Private Equity
9
2,4
169,66%
0,80%

0,89
12,16%
1,02
Publishing
30
1,43
70,33%
15,54%

0,9
4,27%
0,94
R.E.I.T.
143
1,6
67,45%
0,72%

0,96
5,72%
1,01
Railroad
15
1,29
32,95%
27,39%

1,04
2,31%
1,07
Recreation
65
1,43

49,77%
16,86%

1,01
5,05%
1,06
Reinsurance
8
1,07
17,69%
4,17%

0,91
28,41%
1,28
Restaurant
68
1,34
22,48%
19,86%

1,14
2,52%
1,17
Retail (Special Lines)
157
1,43
16,08%
18,49%

1,27
8,52%
1,38
Retail Automotive

15
1,46
44,57%
32,68%

1,13
2,65%
1,16
Retail Building Supply
7
0,95
19,12%
27,05%

0,83
1,34%
0,85
Retail Store
43
1,35
26,98%
18,42%

1,1
4,55%
1,16
Retail/Wholesale Food
32
0,73
26,17%
30,39%

0,62
3,01%

0,63
Securities Brokerage
30
1,18
281,05%
20,49%

0,36
34,11%
0,55
Semiconductor
125
1,56
8,06%
10,85%

1,45
12,95%
1,67
Semiconductor Equip
14
1,93
7,28%
16,66%

1,82
14,50%
2,13
Shoe
19
1,34
3,55%
22,11%

1,3
11,41%
1,47
Steel (General)
20
1,61
30,81%
22,29%

1,3
7,65%
1,4
Steel (Integrated)
15
1,85
39,30%
22,94%

1,42
7,93%
1,55
Telecom. Equipment
115
1,15
10,90%
13,79%

1,05
21,02%
1,33
Telecom. Services
140
1,1

47,03%
12,80%

0,78
5,75%
0,83
Thrift
227
0,73
21,74%
11,90%

0,61
14,51%
0,72
Tobacco
12
0,78
22,93%
26,03%

0,67
5,57%
0,71
Toiletries/Cosmetics
19
1,23
26,33%
26,27%

1,03
6,89%
1,1
Trucking

33
1,3
85,30%
30,87%

0,82
4,84%
0,86
Utility (Foreign)
5
1,07
101,26%
12,11%

0,57
4,80%
0,59
Water Utility
15
0,82
87,95%
31,16%

0,51
0,77%
0,51
Wireless Networking
60
1,5
19,83%
9,92%

1,28
5,01%

1,34
Total Market
7036
1,17
49,99%
14,07%
0,82
9,49%
0,9

Ngu,ns'liu:http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

17

Ph_l_c4Bocotichnh_cacngtyc5ph8nbnhk;oBinHa(Bibica)

4.1B(ngcn_ik1ton_cacngty(20052009)
( nv_tnhTriu,ng)

Ch6tiu
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005

Tis(nngBnh_n

341.515
402.269
179.079
156.307
100.172

Ti_nvcckho_ntng ngti_n
47.756
30.533
44.423
22.569
11.170

Cckho_nuttichnhng5nh_n
162.000
196.055

14.055
35.000
0

Cckho_nph_ithung5nh_n
44.902
80.918
30.318
33.167
26.584

Hngt,nkho
70.036
86.640
86.851
63.823
61.231

Tis_nng5nh_nkhc
17.660
8.123
3.432
1.748
1.187

Tis(ndih_n
395.576
203.899
200.093
86.670
77.688

Cckho_nph_ithudih_n
0
0
0
0
0

Tis_nc' _nh
366.591
173.676
149.435
64.627
71.262

B_t-ngs_nut
0
0
0
0
0

Cckho_nuttichnhdih_n
14.234
18.208
38.499
9.753
3.720

Tis_ndih_nkhc
14.751
12.015

12.159
12.290
2.706

T5ngc_ngtis(n
737.930
606.168
379.172
242.977
177.860

N_ph(itr(
212.208
111.738
172.177
59.618

81.089

N
ng5nh_n
129.863
101.122
141.006
56.439
76.179

N
dih_n
82.345
10.616
31.170

3.179
4.910

V_nch_s9h/u
523.252
494.429
206.996
183.359
96.771

Ngu,nkinhphvqu4khc
2.217
2.747
1.624
866
217

T.ngc-ngngu,nv'n
737.930
606.168
379.172
242.977
177.860

Ngu,ntiliu:cophieu68.com

18

4.2B(ngboco1ktqu(ho_t_ngkinhdoanh(20052009)( nv_Triu,ng)

Ch6tiu
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005

T.ngdoanhthuho_t-ngkinh

doanh
633.005
545.208
456.850
343.061

287.092

Cckho_ngi_mtr+doanhthu
5.008
788
2.875
1.731
1.730

Doanhthuthun
627.997
544.419
453.975
341.331
285.362

Giv'nhngbn
440.664
420.514
335.662
254.909
216.460

Linhu_ng-p
187.334
123.906
118.313
86.422
68.902

Doanhthuho_t-ngtichnh

25.928
31.517
14.190
9.011
220

Chiphtichnh
6.702
32.509
4.427
3.324
3.153

Chiphbnhng
109.730
76.055
74.254
51.308

35.856

Chiphqu_nldoanhnghip
33.588
28.102
21.061
16.092
14.267

Linhu_nthunt+ho_t-ngkinh

doanh
63.242
18.757

32.762
24.710
15.846

Thunh_pkhc
3.497
3.721
1.223
1.160
560

Chiphkhc
2.304
553
659
538
390

Linhu_nkhc
1.193
3.168
564
622
170

T.nglinhu_nk_tontr _cthu_
64.435
21.925
33.325
25.332
16.016

Chiphthu_TNDN
6.890
1.074
8.882
6.149
3.732

Linhu_nsauthu_thunh_p

doanhnghip
57.293
20.851
24.443
19.183
12.284

EPS
3.715
1.527
1.747
2.063
0

P/E
7
9
57
20
0

Gigiaod_chcu'iqu
28,5
14
100
42
22

Kh'ilng
15420782
15420782
13522925
12.74040
0

Ngu,ntiliu:cophieu68.com

19

Bocnd_ik1toncngtyc5ph8nbnhk;oBinHa31/12/2009

TIS_N
31/12/2009VND
01/01/2009VND
A.TIS_NNG_NHCN
341.515.700.876
402.269.093.607
I.Ti_nvcckho(ntng
204.756.220.545
30.533.213.380
1.
Ti_n
12.756.220.545
30.533.213.380
2.
Cckho_ntng ngti_n
192.000.000.000

II.Cckho(n8uttichnh
5.000.000.000
196.055.000.000

1.
utng5nh_n
5.000.000.000
196.055.000.000
III.Cckho(nph(ithungBnh_n
43.236.261.723
80.917.979.475
1.
Ph_ithukhchhng
32.991.133.877
33.028.740.600
2.
Tr_tr _cchong &ibn
5.360.517.843
40.659.113.409
5.
Cckho_nph_ithukhc
5.316.011.913
7.683.887.395
6.
D_phngph_ithung5nh_nkh
431.401.910

IV.Hngt>nkho
70.835.265.816

86.639.874.166
1.
Hngt,nkho
72.217.736.499
86.639.874.166
2.
D_phnggi_mgihngt,nkho
1.382.470.683

V.Tis(nngBnh_nkhc
17.687.952.792
8.123.026.586
1.
Chiphtr_tr _cng5nh_n
1.038.462.369
1.080.100.379
2.
Thu_GTGT ckh_utr+
7.544.602.320
3.262.181.143
3.
Thu_vcckho_nph_ithuNh
875.758.606
3.045.114.128
4.

Tis_nng5nh_nkhc
8.229.129.497
735.630.936
B.TIS_NDIHCN
395.293.498.110
203.898.542.811
II.Tis(nc_ 2nh
366.590.815.113
173.675.668.764
1.
Tis_nc' _nhh_uhnh
166.013.429.442
139.456.865.452
Nguyngi
315.204.470.260
269.806.513.479
Gitr_haomnlyk_(*)
149.191.040.818
130.349.648.027
3.
Tis_nc' _nhvhnh
1.944.205.019
2.316.713.715
Nguyngi
3.042.539.152

2.922.764.328
Gitr_haomnlyk_(*)
(1.098.334.133)

4.
Chiphxyd_ngcb_nd%dang
198.633.180.652
31.902.089.597
IV.Cckho(n8uttichnh
14.161.955.163
18.207.958.400
2.
utvocngtylink_t,lin
2.774.805.000
2.774.805.000
3.
utdih_nkhc
25.990.583.763
40.132.797.513
4.
D_phnggi_mgiutti
14.603.433.600
(24.699.644.113)
V.Tis(ndih_nkhc
14.540.727.834

12.014.915.647
1.
Chiphtr_tr _cdih_n
14.540.727.834
12.014.915.647

T#NGCDNGTI
736.809.198.986
606.167.636.418

20

NGU)NVEN
31/12/2009VND
01/01/2009

A.NFPH_ITR_
213.556.430.725
111.738.289.876

I.N_ngBnh_n
157.211.102.969
101.122.358.030

1.
Vayvn
ng5nh_n
43.658.720.078

16.974.584.354

2.
Ph_itr_ng &ibn
75.147.492.654
57.437.412.268

3.
Ng &imuatr_ti_ntr _c
3.413.381.311
4.137.188.167

4.
Thu_vcckho_nph_in-pNh
4.569.796.010
7.630.195.818

5.
Ph_itr_ng &ilao-ng
1.265.608.831
690.714.668
6.
Chiphph_itr_
23.357.036.009
11.409.880.180

9.
Cckho_nph_itr_,ph_in-png5n
5.799.068.076
2.842.382.575

II.N_dih_n
56.345.327.756
10.615.931.846

3.
Ph_itr_dih_nkhc
1.487.536.000
1.547.536.000

4.
Vayvn
dih_n
53.999.998.016
8.210.602.106

6.
D_phngtrc_pm_tviclm
857.793.740
857.793.740

B.VENCHGS_HHU
523.252.768.261

494.429.346.542

I.V_nch_s9h/u
521.579.075.484
491.682.668.359

1.
V'nutc"ach"s%h_u
154.207.820.000
154.207.820.000

2.
Th(ngdv'nc.phn
302.726.583.351
302.726.583.351

6.Chnhlcht#gih'ioi

713.800.503

7.
Qu4 utphttri_n
14.018.170.003
10.587.588.608

8.
Qu4d_phngtichnh
4.291.431.382
3.291.431.382
10.Linhu_nsauthu_chaphnph'i
47.048.871.251
20.869.245.018

II.Ngu>nkinhphvccqu-khc
1.673.692.777
2.746.678.183

1.
Qu4khenth %ng,phcli
1.673.692.777
2.746.678.183

T#NGCDNGNGU)NVEN
736.809.198.986
606.167.636.418

Ngu,ns'liu:http://www.bibica.com.vn

21

Boco1tkqu(ho_t_ngs(nsu!tkinhdoanhc_acngty31/12/2009

Ngu,ns'liu:http://www.bibica.com.vn

22

Ph_cl_c5B(ng _ctnhgitr2cngtyc5ph8nbnhk;oBibica
(31/12/2009)

B_NGTNHTONXC NHGITRCNGTYC#PH$N
BNHK%OBINHA(BIBICA_BBC)

Nm
2009
2005

Thgi
10.000

T#l

chiac.t_c

Linhu_nsauthu_
57.292.527.028
12.284.000.000

trnthgi
12%

V'nch"s%h_u
521.579.075.484

SLCP
15.420.782

T'c-tnglinhu_n
47,0%

S'ti_nchiac.t_c
18.504.938.400

LNSTnm2009
57.292.527.028

Mhnh

APM

CAPM

CAPMk_thp
T#l
chiac.t_c

M&M

32,30%

RBBC
25,10%
24,38%
21,07%
T#l
trchqu4
25,00%

Reinvest
42,70%

Reinvestnm2013
45,00%

Nm

2010

2011

2012

2013

D_bolinhu_ncty
84.195.236.450
123.730.584.226
181.830.446.926
267.212.117.653

Linhu_nti ut
35.952.171.038
52.834.142.574
77.643.339.497
120.245.452.944

S'ti_nchiac.t_c
27.194.256.300
39.963.795.595
58.729.495.698

80163635296

DIV
1.763
2.592
3.808

5.198

D0bo_tc_tngtr 9ngv_nch_s9h/u

Nm

2010

2011

2012

V'nch"s%h_u
557.531.246.522
610.365.389.095
688.008.728.592

ROE
15,10%
20,27%
26,43%

ROEbnhqun
20,60%

T#lti ut
45,00%

gdih_n
9,27%

23

B(ngtnhgitr2cngtyBibica

Nm
2010
2011
2012
2013

DIV
1.763
2.592
3.808
5.198

RBBC(APM)
25,10%

gdih_n
9,27%

PV(DIV)
1.410
1.656
1.945

Gitr_k_tthc

32.839

PV(gitr_k_tthc)

16.774

PV(DIV)
1.410
1.656
18.719

Gitr_c.phi_u(P)
21.784

SLCP
15.420.782

VE
335.932.305.536

VD
213.556.430.725

Vo
549.488.736.261

Phntch-nh_yc"at#su_tchi_tkh_u

Mhnh
APM
CAPM
CAPMvM&M

RBBC
25,10%
24,38%

21,07%

Gitr_c.phi_u(P)
21.784
22.952

30.196

SLCP
15.420.782
15.420.782

15.420.782

VE
335.932.305.536
353.937.400.105

465.639.184.463

VD
213.556.430.725
213.556.430.725

213.556.430.725

Vo
549.488.736.261
567.493.830.830

679.195.615.188

Nhv_ygitr_cngtyc.phnbnhk/oBinHa(Bibica_BBc)t_ith&i
i_m31/12/2009l:549.488.736.261(,ng)