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KTQT
KTQT
KTQT
4.
1.
-
Tc ng
- Thc y tc tng trng kinh t, gy ra nhng s t bin trong tng
trng.
- Chuyn dch c cu kinh t ca cc quc gia theo hng ti u hn, s dng
c hiu qu hn cc ngun lc.\
Trong TK 20, SXCNTG tng 35 ln;TK 19: tng 3 ln.
1900: NN chim 1/3 GDP TG; 2004: 3%, CN:35%, DV: 60%.
- Thay i quan nim v ngun lc pht trin, trong con ngi c trnh
khoa hc v cng ngh gi vai tr quyt nh
Thay i chnh sch ngoi giao, chnh sch pht trin ca cc quc
gia theo xu hng m ca, hi nhp.
Thay i tng quan lc lng gia cc nn kinh t v hnh thnh cc
trung tm kinh t th gii nh NAFTA, NE, EU v.v
i hi mi QG mun pht trin nhanh cn phi la chn chin lc v
chnh sch pht trin ph hp
Tc ng n Vit Nam
+ Phi c chnh sch thu ht cng ngh hin i c bit l cng ngh ngun
+ Cn phi ch trng o to i ng cn b KH-CN, i ng nhng nh
qun l c cht lng cao v i ng cng nhn.
+ Phi c s iu chnh c cu mt hng XNK (c bit ch trng nhng mt
hng c cht lng cao v cc dch v p ng c nhu cu TG). ng
thi phi pht huy tnh sng to ca cc doanh nghip, c nhn.
2. Xu th quc t ha nn KTTG
c im:
- Qu trnh QTH din ra vi quy m ngy cng ln, tc ngy cng cao
trong tt c cc lnh vc SX, TM, T, TC, DV,thc y xu th ton cu
ho pht trin c v chiu rng v chiu su.
- Vai tr ngy cng ln ca cc hot ng TC-TT, cc cng ty XQG, cc
TCQT
Cui TK 20: c hn 60.000 cng ty,500.000 chi nhnh trn ton
cu, chim trn 30% GDP TG, 1/3 tng gi trTMTG, 4/5 FDI
ra nc ngoi, 9/10 thnh qu nghin cu v chuyn giao KHKT.
- WTO vi 151 thnh vin iu chnh n 95-98% thng mi ca th gii l
biu hin ca t do ho thng mi ton cu.
- Xu th khu vc ho vi s pht trin ca cc lin kt kinh t-thng mi khu
vc nh EU, ASEAN, NAFTA, APEC... v cc HTMTD (FTA) song
phng lm su sc thm xu th ton cu ho.
Tnh n 5/2003 c khong 250 HTMTD song phng
(BTAs) v khu vc c thng bo cho WTO, trong 130
H c thng bo sau thng 1/1995
- Tc ng:
Tch cc:
+ Tng tnh lin h ph thuc ln nhau v mt kinh t gia cc quc gia.
+ Tng tnh hiu qu ca vic s dng cc ngun lc trn quy m ton cu.
+ Tng s dch chuyn cc yu t phc v sn xut, vn v k thut trn
th gii.
+ Thc t th S pht trin ca vn minh th gii 1/10 a trn s sng
to cn 9/10 nh vo s chuyn giao.
+ Tng kh nng hp tc v cnh tranh quc t
Hn ch:
+ Gia tng cc ri ro kinh t (khng hong ti chnh-tin t khu vc,
vic hnh thnh cc bong bng ti chnh-tin t .v.v)
+Tnh trng tht nghip gia tng, phn ho giu ngho gia tng gia
cc quc gia.
+Hin tng chy mu cht xm din ra nhiu v d dng hn.
+Gy nn s ph thuc qu mc vo cc trung tm kinh t ln, cc
quc gia c tim lc kinh t ln...
Tc ng n Vit Nam
+ Vit Nam cn phi ch ng hi nhp vo nn KTTG vi cc chin
lc thch hp
+ VN cn phi iu chnh c cu v c ch ca nn KT cho ph hp vi
xu hng ca ton cu ha. l chuyn i nn KT theo c ch th
trng; y mnh cng nghip v dch v; to ra s bnh ng gia cc
thnh phn KT.
Tc ng:
S pht trin khng u gia cc nc, nhm nc to ra khong
cch v trnh pht trin KT v chnh lch giu ngho
S pht trin khng u gia cc nc, nhm nc to nn s cnh
tranh ngy cng khc lit.
4. KT khu vc chu -TBD ang tr thnh trung tm ca nn KTTG
c im:
- Nn kinh t th gii c tc kinh t tng trng t khong 4 - 5%/nm
(2004: 4.8%, 2005: 4.3%, 2006: 5.1%, 2007:4.9%)
- Nn kinh t ca cc nc trong khu vc C-TBD: 7-8%/nm
(Trung Quc: GDP 2007: 5.3 nghn t USD (chim 10% GDP ton cu), ng th
hai trn TG sau M; tng trng KT: 2006: 10.5%, 2007: 11.5%, Hin trong top 5
DN vn ha ln nht TG, TQ s hu ti 3 cng ty, gm China Mobile, Bank of
China v PetroChina, XK hin ng th 2 sau c; n : GDP ng th 5 sau
M, TQ, NB, c).
Tc ng:
To ra nhng c hi (s hp tc cng pht trin)
t ra nhng thch thc cho Vit Nam (s cnh tranh)
Tc ng n VN: Nm trong vng cung ny
+ C mi quan h bn hng truyn thng trong khu vc, c iu kin
m rng th trng, tng cng s hp tc trn nhiu lnh vc.
+ Thc y tnh cnh tranh. Trnh VN cn thp, nu khng tng
cng nng lc cnh tranh th s khng theo kp.
+ Cn tun th cc iu kin, lut, ch ti ca QT.
+ To ng lc pht trin GDDT