Assessing The Effect of A Compulsory Sickness Insurance On Worker Absenteeism

You might also like

Download as ps, pdf, or txt
Download as ps, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 9

Assessing the effect of a compulsory sickness

insurance on worker absenteeism*

Per Johansson † and Mårten Palme ‡

December 9, 1998

SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance No. 287


December 1998

Abstract

The effect of economic incentives on worker absenteeism is analyzed using


panel data on work absence behavior for each day during 1990 and 1991 (i.e.
730 observations in the time dimension) for a representative sample of 1,396
Swedish blue collar workers. During the observed time period, a major reform
of the sickness insurance as well as a tax reform were implemented, both of
which affected the worker’s cost of being absent from work. We differentiate
between the dynamic dependence conditional on whether the worker is in the
work absence state versus in the work presence state. We also control for
unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that the cost of being absent has a
significant effect on work absence behavior and the importance of considering
unobserved heterogeneity when modeling individual work absence behavior.

Keywords: Work absence, panel data, discrete choice.

JEL-classification: C25, C33, J22, J28.

*Financial support for this research is provided by the Swedish Council for Social Research.
†
T&S, Dalarna University SE-788 81 Borlänge, Sweden. E-mail: Per.Johansson@du.se.
‡
Department of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics, Box 6501, SE-113 83
Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: Marten.Palme@hhs.se.
 W?|hL_U|L?
Lt| ?_t|h@*3i_ iUL?L4it @i tL4i uLh4 Lu UL4T*tLh) tU!?itt ?th@?Ui Ai
@4 Lu tU ?th@?Ui t |L hiT*@Ui |i uLhi}L?i i@h??}t u |i ?thi_ Lh!ih @t |i
M@_ *U! Lu @?} |i4TLh@h*) M@_ i@*| U Thii?|t ih uhL4 _L?} ih hi}*@h
Lh! OLiihc | t @*@)t _U*|c Lh ?L*it } ULt|tc |L 4L?|Lh i|ih @?
?thi_ Lh!ih hi@**) U@? Lh! Lh ?L| At t itTiU@**) |hi uLh tLh| |ih4 tU!?itt
tTi**t Ai 5i_t tU!?itt ?th@?Uic U t ?it|}@|i_ ? |i i4ThU@* T@h| Lu
|t T@Tihc *i@it |i _iUtL? L? i|ih |i ?thi_ ?__@* t i?||*i_ |L hiUii
UL4Ti?t@|L? uhL4 |i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui uLh |i €ht| tii? _@)t ? @ Lh! @Mti?Ui
tTi** |L |i ?__@* ihti*u Ai ?thi_ Lh!ih t i?||*i_ |L UL4Ti?t@|L? uhL4
|i ?th@?Ui u ih TihUiT|L? Lu ih i@*| t tU |@|c R| _Lit ?L| Tih4| ih |L _L
ih hi}*@h Lh!R AL Thii?| @Mti Lu |i ?th@?Uic 4Lt| tU!?itt ?th@?Ui tUi4it
@i tL4i uLh4 Lu UL?th@?Ui Etii i}c w@?||Lc bbc uLh @ |iLhi|U@* _tUttL? W?
|i 5i_t tU!?itt ?th@?Uic |t UL?th@?Ui @t |i uLh4 |@| |i ?th@?Ui _L
?L| hiT*@Ui |i u** *Ltt ? i@h??}t i? |i ?thi_ ?__@* t @Mti?| uhL4 Lh!
Ai ThTLti Lu |t t|_) t |L i4ThU@**) i @4?i L iUL?L4U ?Ui?|it ?
}i?ih@*c @?_ |i UL?th@?Ui ? |i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui ? T@h|U*@hc @giU| ?__@*
Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh AL _L |tc i it|4@|i @? iUL?L4i|hU 4L_i* t?} T@?i*
_@|@ L? ?__@* Lh! @Mti?Ui uLh i@U _@) _h?} |i TihL_ a@?@h) c bbfc |L
#iUi4Mih c bb L| |i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui @?_ |i ?UL4i |@ t)t|i4t i?|
|hL} 4@Lh hiuLh4t _h?} |i |4i ULihi_ M) |i _@|@ W? tLh| |i hiuLh4 Lu
|i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui 4T*i_ @ ^|i _h@4@|U _iUhi@ti ? |i hiT*@Ui4i?| *ii* Lu
|i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui @?_ |i |@ hiuLh4c @ h@_U@* U| ? |i 4@h}?@* |@ h@|it
L| |iti hiuLh4t Uhi@|i_ @h@|L? ? |i ?__@* ULt| Lu Mi?} @Mti?| uhL4 Lh!
@?_ |ihiM) u@U*|@|it |i it|4@|L? Lu |i iUL?L4i|hU 4L_i*
Ai @ih@}i ?4Mih Lu _@)t Tih ?thi_ ?__@* UL4Ti?t@|i_ M) |i tU!?itt
?th@?Ui _iUhi@ti_ uhL4 2e ? bbf |L 22D ? bb2 At 4@h!i_ _iUhi@ti ? |i
@}}hi}@|i h@|i Lu Lh! @Mti?Uic U UL?U_i_ | @? ?Uhi@ti ? |i ?__@*
ULt| Lu Mi?} @Mti?|c U@? Mi ?|ihThi|i_ @t tTTLh|?} |i )TL|itt |@| iUL?L4U
?Ui?|it @giU| Lh! @Mti?Ui OLiihc |i 5i_t iUL?L4) i?|ihi_ @ hiUittL?
? bb Ai ?i4T*L)4i?| h@|i ?Uhi@ti_ uhL4 2 TihUi?| ? #iUi4Mih bbf |L
e TihUi?| ? #iUi4Mih bb A@| tc |i UL4TLt|L? Lu |i *@MLh uLhUi U@?}i_
@?_ |i hiUittL? ? |ti*u 4@) @i @_ @? igiU| L? Lh! @Mti?Ui ) 4L_i**?}
?__@* Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lhc i 4@) tiT@h@|i L _gihi?| U@?}it Lih |i
LMtihi_ TihL_ Lu |4i @giU|i_ ?__@* Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh
Ai UL?t|hU|L? Lu |i 5i_t tU!?itt ?th@?Ui 4@_i | TLttM*i |L _ii*LT @
?^i _@|@ti| uLh t|_)?} Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh Ai tU!?itt ?th@?Ui ? 5i_i?
t ML| UL4T*tLh) @?_ ?@|L?@*( i |i ?th@?Ui t @_4?t|h@|i_ M) |i @|L?@*
5LU@* W?th@?Ui L@h_c Lti h*it @TT*) |hL}L| |i UL?|h) At 4i@?t |@|
4 Vhh Ndqjdv +4<<4, iru dq ryhuylhz1
5 Qdwlrqdo Vrfldo Lqvxudqfh Erdug/ Idfwv rq wkh Vzhglvk Vrfldo Lqvxudqfh 4<<51

2
i @hi @M*i |L }i| hi*@M*i hi}t|ih ?uLh4@|L? L? ?__@* _@*) |*3@|L? Lu |i
tU!?itt ?th@?Ui Aiti hi}t|iht @i Mii? 4@|Ui_ | @ *@h}i 4UhL _@|@ti|
EAi 5i_t wii* Lu w?} 5hi) L?ti^i?|*)c i @hi @M*i |L LM|@? _i|@*i_
?uLh4@|L? L? ?__@* iUL?L4U UL?_|L?tc @t i** @t |i ULt| Lu Mi?} @Mti?|
uhL4 Lh!c |L}i|ih | ?uLh4@|L? L? Lh! @Mti?Ui _h?} i@U _@) ? |i |L
)i@ht bbf @?_ bbc uLh @ hiThiti?|@|i t@4T*i Lu 5i_t Lh!iht Ai €?@* t@4T*i
UL?tt|t Lu c bS 5i_t M*i UL**@h Lh!iht E. H 4i? @?_ SDH L4i? _h?} |i
)i@ht bbf @?_ bb At 4i@?t |@| i @i . f hiULh_t uLh i@U ?__@*( i @
|L|@* Lu cfbcfHf LMtih@|L?t
AL 4L_i* |i ?__@* Lh! @Mti?Ui i @tt4i |@| i@U Lh!ihc UL?|?}i?|
L? ih TihUiT|L? Lu ih i@*| t|@|t @?_ ULt| Lu Mi?} @Mti?| uhL4 Lh!c _iU_it
i@U _@) L? i|ih Lh ?L| |L Mi @Mti?| uhL4 Lh! |L| T*@???} ih u|hi Lh!
@Mti?Ui Mi@Lh At t @ t|@|U 4L_i* ? |i ti?ti |@| | @tt4it 4)LTU ?_
_@* Mi@Lh OLiihc i @4??} @ ti^i?Ui Lu ?__@* Lh! @Mti?Ui hiULh_tc
| U@? i@t*) Mi tii? |@| ?__@* Lh! @Mti?Ui @t @ _)?@4U _iTi?_i?Ui At
T@||ih? t 4Lt| *!i*) _i |L |i u@U| |@| ?__@* i@*| t|@|t U@?}itc t*L*)c
Lih |4i Aiti |i4TLh@h) i@*| U@?}it U@??L| Mi LMtihi_ ? Lhc Lh ? @?) L|ih
Eqc _@|@ti| AL @**L uLh |t Mi@Lh@* T@||ih?c i uLh ?LMtihi_ U@?}it ? ?
__@* i@*|c |i Thiuihi?Uit uLh Lh! @Mti?Ui ? Lh iUL?L4U 4L_i* ** uL**L @
t|LU@t|U ThLUitt Ai _h@|L? _iTi?_i?Ui U@? Mi |L}| Lu @t @ tih@* ULhhi*@|L?
? |i ?LMtihi_ T@h| Lu |i hi_Ui_ uLh4 uLh _i4@?_ uLh Lh! @Mti?Ui |4i 
UL4T*U@|L? t |@| | t ?*!i*) |@| |i ML*L}U@* ThLUitt ?_ih*)?} |i |h@?t|L?
uhL4 M@_ i@*| |L }LL_ i@*| t |i t@4i @t |@| uLh |i |h@?t|L? uhL4 }LL_ i@*|
|L M@_ i@*| `i ** |ihiuLhi 4L_i* |i _h@|L? _iTi?_i?Ui _gihi?|*) _iTi?_
?} L? |i ?|@* t|@|ic i Lh! Lh Lh! @Mti?Ui `i ti k@T*@?iih it|4@|it
Lu |i i4ThU@* th@* u?U|L? @t @? @_ |L _iU_i L? L |L 4L_i* |i _h@|L?
_iTi?_i?Ui
At t|_) i |i?_t |L @tTiU|t Lu |i ThiLt *|ih@|hi ? |t @hi@ 6ht|c i
@hi @M*i |L UL?|hL* uLh ?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) t?} @ € i_ igiU| hi}hittL? 4L_i*
W? |t UL?|i | |ihi @hi tiih@* hi@tL?tc U ** Mi _tUtti_ ? _i|@* Mi*Lc |L
) |ihi 4@) Mi @? ?ihti hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? @}it  U | |i _it}?
Lu |i hiT*@Ui4i?| ? |i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui t }*) ULhhi*@|i_ | |i ULt| Lu
Mi?} @Mti?| uhL4 Lh!  @?_ _gihi?Uit ? Thiuihi?Uit |L Mi @Mti?| AihiuLhic u
?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|) t ?L| UL?|hL**i_ uLh t?} € i_ igiU|tc @ tThLt ULhhi*@|L?
Mi|ii? Lh! @Mti?Ui @?_ |i ULt| Lu Mi?} @Mti?| uhL4 Lh! 4@) LUUh 5iUL?_c
i it|4@|i |i _)?@4U t|hU|hi Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh W? |t UL?|i | i @hi
@M*i |L _t|?}t |i |h@?t|L? uhL4 Lh! |L Lh! @Mti?Ui uhL4 |i |h@?t|L? uhL4
Lh! @Mti?Ui M@U! |L Lh! @}@?
Ai 4@? *4|@|L? Lu |i t|_) t |@| Lh |iLhi|U@* 4L_i* t ?|h?tU@**) t|@|U
A@| tc i _L ?L| @**L uLh |i ?__@* |L T*@? ih Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh 4Lhi
|@? L?i _@) ? @_@?Ui Aihi @hi @| *i@t| |L hi@tL?t ) |t tL*_ ?L| Mi |i
U@ti 6ht|c | t TLttM*i |@| @? @Mti?Ui tTi** 4@) Mi tii? @t @? ?it|4i?| ? |i


?__@*<t i@*|  tLh| @Mti?Ui tTi** 4@) i?@M*i |i ?__@* |L hiULih u@t|ih
uhL4 @ |i4TLh@h) **?itt A@| tc @ Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi** 4@) Mi tii? @t @? ?it|4i?|
? ?__@* i@*| @?_ |ihiuLhi @? ?it|4i?| |L @L_ u|hi Lh! @Mti?Ui Etii
B**it!c bbH 5iUL?_c |i Lh!iht u|hi @}i 4@) _iTi?_ L? ih Uhhi?| Lh!
@Mti?Ui Mi@Lh OLiihc it|4@|?} @ _)?@4U 4L_i*c *i @| |i t@4i |4i
UL?|hL**?} uLh ?LMtihi_ i|ihL}i?i|)c t UL4T|@|L?@**) ?|h@U|@M*i AihiuLhic
i ** *i@i |i tti Lu _)?@4U 4L_i**?} |L uh|ih hiti@hU
5iih@* ?|ihit|?} hit*|t i4ih}i_ uhL4 |i t|_) W| t uL?_ |@| |i ULt| Lu
Mi?} @Mti?| @t @ ?i}@|i igiU| L? ML| |i ?U_i?Ui Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui E?4Mih Lu
Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**t @t i** @t |i _h@|L? Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**t Ai *@||ih igiU| t
?L| uL?_ M) t| *LL!?} @| |i _@|@c M) uLh i @4T*i t|_)?} |i igiU| Lu |i hiuLh4
Lu |i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui t?} k@T*@?iih ?L?T@h@4i|hU it|4@|it W| t @*tL
uL?_ |@| Thiuihi?Ui i|ihL}i?i|) t 4TLh|@?| |L UL?t_ih i? t|_)?} |i igiU|
Lu iUL?L4U ?Ui?|it L? Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh Ai )TL|itt Lu ?L Thiuihi?Ui
i|ihL}i?i|) U@? Mi hiiU|i_ Ai T@h@4i|ih it|4@|it uLh |i *LU@* ?i4T*L)4i?|t
h@|i @h@M*i U@?}i t}? ? |i 4L_i* U _L ?L| UL?|hL* uLh ?__@* i|ihL}i?i|)
UL4T@hi_ |L |i € i_ igiU| 4L_i*
Ai T@Tih t Lh}@?3i_ ?|L tii? 4@? tiU|L?t 5iU|L? 2 _itUhMit |i 5i_t
tU!?itt ?th@?Ui @t i** @t |i ?UL4i |@ t)t|i4 L| |iti t)t|i4t @giU| |i
iUL?L4U ?Ui?|it Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui 5iU|L? Thiti?|t tL4i _itUhT|i t|@|t|Ut
L? Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh Ai |iLhi|U@* uh@4iLh! uLh ?__@* Lh! @Mti?Ui
Mi@Lh t _itUhMi_ ? 5iU|L? e Ai _@|@ uLh |i _iTi?_i?| @?_ i T*@?@|Lh)
@h@M*it @hi _tUtti_ ? 5iU|L? D W? 5iU|L? S |i hit*|t uhL4 |i iUL?L4i|hU
4L_i* @hi Thiti?|i_ @?_ 5iU|L? . UL?U*_it

2 @|L?@* 5U!?itt W?th@?Ui @?_ W?UL4i |@ it 6

W? |t tiU|L? i _itUhMi |i 5i_t ?t|||L?tc |i @|L?@* tU!?itt ?th@?Uic
?UL4i |@ it @?_ Mi?i€|tc |@| @giU| |i ?__@* Lh!ih<t iUL?L4U ?Ui?|it uLh
Lh! @Mti?Ui

2 5U!?itt ?th@?Ui


Ai @|L?@* tU!?itt ?th@?Ui t €?@?Ui_ |hL} T@)hL** |@ it *ii_ L? @}it
** i4T*L)iit Lti i4T*L)iht T@) T@)hL** |@ it  @** i UiT| |Lti i4T*L)i_ ? |i
?uLh4@* tiU|Lh Lu |i iUL?L4)  @hi ?thi_ M) |i tU!?itt ?th@?Ui Ai 5U!?itt
W?th@?Ui E5W t hi}*@|i_ ? @ tiT@h@|i *@ Ew@}i? L4 @**4@? uLht@!h?} W| t
@|L?@* ? |i ti?ti |@| | t @_4?t|ihi_ @?_ _iU_i_ M) |i Ui?|h@* }Lih?4i?|c
i |i t@4i h*it @TT*it ? |i i?|hi UL?|h) Ai 5W hiT*@Uit uLh}L?i i@h??}t _i
6D h{whqvlyh ghvfulswlrq ri Vzhghq*v wd{ dqg vrfldo lqvxudqfh v|vwhpv duh surylghg lq Durqvvrq

dqg Zdonhu +4<<:,1

e
|L |i4TLh@h) **?ittit T |L @ tLU@* tiUh|) Ui*?} Ai tLU@* tiUh|) Ui*?} ULhhi
tTL?_t |L .D M@tU @4L?|t E Lt| tLU@* ?th@?Uit ? 5i_i? @hi UL??iU|i_
|L |i  *|L} |i  t TL*|U@**) _i|ih4?i_ | @t t|LhU@**) uL**Li_ |i
L?t4ih hUi W?_i EW ih) U*Lti*)e W? bbDc @ML| S. TihUi?| Lu @** ?thi_
Lh!iht __ @i @? ?UL4i @MLi .D GtD
 Lh!ih L @t *Lt| ih @M*|) |L _L ih hi}*@h Lh!c _i |L |i4TLh@h) i@*|
_i€Ui?Uitc t i?||*i_ |L UL4Ti?t@|L? uhL4 |i 5W 6Lh UL?|?i_ UL4Ti?t@|L?c |i
Lh!ih ?ii_t @ Uih|€U@|i uhL4 @ T)tU@? @| |i tii?| _@) Lu |i Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**
At Uih|€U@|i ?ii_t |L Mi hi?ii_ L? |i 2b| _@)c @?_ @u|ih |@| i@U 4L?| Ai
wLU@* 5LU@* W?th@?Ui Ui t hitTL?tM*i uLh UL?|hL* @}@?t| @Mti Lu |i ?th@?Ui
OLiih UL?|hL* @}@?t| @Mtic |i €ht| tii? _@)t Lu @ tU!?itt tTi**c t ih) *}|
At t T@h|*) _i |L |i u@U| |@| | t ih) @h_c ii? uLh @ i Tihi?Ui_ T)tU@?c |L
_iU_i i|ih Lh ?L| @ Lh!ih t ? u@U| i?||*i_ |L UL4Ti?t@|L? uhL4 |i ?th@?Ui
Ai Lh!ih t ?L *L?}ih i*}M*i uLh tU!?itt U@t Mi?i€|t u ti uLh i@*| hi@tL?t
@t Tih4@?i?|*) *Lt| ih @M*|) |L Lh! Wu |t t |i U@tic |i Lh!ih t i*}M*i uLh
#t@M*|) W?th@?Ui E#W OLiihc t?Ui |i UL4Ti?t@|L? *ii* ? |i #Wc U t
?L| 4Lhi |@? SD TihUi?| Lu |i Lh!iht hi}*@h i@h??}tcS t 4U *Lih UL4T@hi_ |L
|i 5Wc |ihi @hi t|hL?} iUL?L4U ?Ui?|it uLh |i *L?} |ih4 tU! Lh!ih |L hiUii
tU!?itt U@t Mi?i€|t h@|ih |@? #W
Ai hiT*@Ui4i?| *ii*c |i t@hi Lu |i Lh!ih<t i@h??}t |@| t UL4Ti?t@|i_ uhL4
|i 5Wc @t Mii? U@?}i_ L? tiih@* LUU@tL?t ? hiUi?| |4i wi| t Mhi) hii
|i U@?}it hi*i@?| uLh |t t|_) Ai 5W i?| |hL} @ 4@Lh hiuLh4 ? bH.
W? |t hiuLh4c |i hiT*@Ui4i?| uhL4 |i ?th@?Ui @t U@?}i_ |L Mi 4Lhi U*Lti*)
UL??iU|i_ |L |i ?thi_ Lh!ih<t hi}*@h Lh! Lht i?i€| U@? Mi U*@4i_ L?*)
uLh |iti Lh! Lht Aiti h*it Thi@* _h?} |i i?|hi |4i TihL_ UL?t_ihi_ ?
|t t|_) Ai hiT*@Ui4i?| *ii* @t @*tL tMt|@?|@**) ?Uhi@ti_ ? |t hiuLh4 |L bf
TihUi?| Lu uLhi}L?i hi}*@h i@h??}t EMi*L |i tLU@* tiUh|) Ui*?} uhL4 |i €ht|
_@) ? i@U tU!?itt tTi**
Ai ?thi_ Lh!ih t @*tL i?||*i_ |L UL4Ti?t@|L? uhL4 |i 5W _h?} L*_@)t
OLiihc @ Uih|€U@|i uhL4 @ T)tU@? t ?ii_i_ uhL4 |i €ht| _@) Lu |i tU!?itt
tTi** Ai Lh!ih t |i? @M*i |L t@i |iti _@)t Lu @U@|L? |@| ULhhitTL?_ |L |i
_@)t UL4Ti?t@|i_ uLh M) |i 5W
? @hU t|c bbc |i hiT*@Ui4i?| *ii* @t _iUhi@ti_ |L SD TihUi?| Lu |i
?thi_ Lh!ih<t ?UL4i uLh |i €ht| |hii _@)t ? @ tU!?itt tTi**c |L Hf TihUi?| uhL4
_@) e |hL} Hbc @?_ hi4@?i_ @| bf TihUi?| uhL4 _@) bf Lu |i tU!?itt tTi**
At hiuLh4 @t L?i Lu tiih@* 4i@?t |@!i? M) |i }Lih?4i?| ? Lh_ih |L U| |i
M_}i| _i€U| Aihi ihi tiih@* 4L|it uLh |i _it}? Lu |i hiuLh4 Ai tLU@*
_i4LUh@|U }Lih?4i?| @t hit|hU|i_c M) @ T*i_}i }i? ? |i U@4T@}? ThiUi_?}
7 Iru d pruh ghwdlohg ghvfwlswlrq ri wkh ED/ vhh Sdoph dqg Vyhqvvrq +4<<;,1
8 Vhh Qdwlrqdo Vrfldo Lqvxudqfh Erdug +4<<:,1 Lq 4<<:/ rqh ED zdv 69/633 VHN +derxw 7/983
XV',1
9 Vhh Sdoph dqg Vyhqvvrq +4<<;, iru d ghwdlohg ghvfulswlrq ri wkh Vzhglvk GL1

D
|i bHH i*iU|L?c |@| |i 5W tL*_ UL?|?i |L UL4Ti?t@|i uLh}L?i i@h??}t uhL4
|i €ht| _@) Lu @** tU!?itt tTi**t Ai 4L|i uLh *i||?} |i UL4Ti?t@|L? *ii*
hi4@? @| bf TihUi?|c uLh |i TihL_ ? |i tTi** i Uii_?} bf _@)tc @t L?i Lu ?UL4i
_t|hM|L?G |i M_}i| U|t tL*_ ?L| @giU| |i ?UL4it Lu *L?} |ih4 tU! TiLT*i
W? bb2 |i hitTL?tM*|) uLh |i 5Wc _h?} |i €ht| |i? _@)t ? i@U tTi**c @t
|@!i? Lih M) |i i4T*L)ih t |i tLh| |ih4 tU!?itt tTi**tc @u|ih |t hiuLh4c ?L
*L?}ih @hi @_4?t|h@|i_ M) |i @|L?@* 5LU@* W?th@?Ui L@h_c | t ?L| TLttM*i |L
LM|@? _@|@ uhL4 |i tLhUic @?_ ?L| @| @** TLttM*i |L LM|@? @t _i|@*i_ _@|@c @t i
ti ? |t t|_) @u|ih bb
5iih@* }hLTt ? |i 5i_t *@MLh 4@h!i| @i ?i}L|@|i_ tU!?itt ?th@?Uit ?
@__|L? |L |i UL4T*tLh) ?@|L?@* ?th@?Ui 6h|ih4Lhic 4Lt| |iUL**@h Lh!
iht @i *LU@* @}hii4i?|t | |ih i4T*L)iht uLh tU!?itt T@)4i?| Aiti @}hii4i?|t
U@? }i?ih@**) ?L| Mi hiULihi_ uhL4 Lh _@|@ti| `i @ic |ihiuLhic hit|hU|i_ Lh
@?@*)tt |L M*iUL**@h Lh!iht Ai M*iUL**@h Lh!ih<t tU!?itt ?th@?Ui T*@?c B5
U t ?i}L|@|i_ M) |i M*iUL**@h Lh!ih<t ?L? wc _Lit ?L| L?*) ULih @U|@*
4i4Miht Lu |i |h@_i ?L?c M| @** Lh!iht Lti Lh!T*@Ui t ULihi_ M) UL**iU|i
@}hii4i?|t Mi|ii? |i |h@_i ?L? @?_ |i i4T*L)iht UL?ui_ih@|L? E56c U t
@ML| bH TihUi?| Lu @** i4T*L)i_ M*i UL**@h Lh!iht
B5 U@? L?*) Mi U*@4i_ uLh tU!?itt tTi**t *L?}ih |@? . _@)t( i tU!?itt tTi**t
|@| hi^hit @ Uih|€U@|i uhL4 @ T)tU@? ? |i L|ih @?_c |i UL4Ti?t@|L? t
T@)i_c uLh _@) L?i |L tii? hi|hL@U|i*)c i? B5 t @_4||i_ Ai B5 T*@? @t
tMt|@?|@**) U@?}i_ ? |i hiuLh4 Lu |i @|L?@* 5W Lu @hU c bb iuLhi |i
hiuLh4c |i hiT*@Ui4i?| @t HD TihUi?| Lu |i Lh!ih<t Mi?i€| uhL4 |i @|L?@* 5W
uLh _@)  |L _@) e ? @ @Mti?| tTi**( Mi|ii? _@) e @?_ bf | @t U@?}i_ |L Mi
Mi|ii? S @?_ 2 5,kc _iTi?_?} L? |i t3i Lu |i Mi?i€| uhL4 |i @|L?@* 5Wc
uLh i@U _@)( @u|ih _@) bf | t U@?}i_ |L S 5,k hhitTiU|i Lu |i Lh!ih<t tU!?itt
Mi?i€| u|ih |i hiuLh4c |i B5 @t U@?}i_ |L De TihUi?| Lu |i Lh!ih<t tU!?itt
Mi?i€| uLh |i €ht| |hii _@)t ? @ tTi**( |L 2D TihUi?| Mi|ii? _@) e @?_ bf( uhL4
_@) b B5 @t @ML*ti_ @u|ih @hU c bb Ai B5 Mi?i€|t ihi @*tL 4@_i
|@ @M*i ? bb

22 W?UL4i |@ it @?_ Mi?i€|t

5i_i? @t @? ?|i}h@|i_ ?UL4i |@ t)t|i4 A@ it @hi T@)i_ ML| |L |i ?@|L?@*
@?_ |L |i *LU@* }Lih?4i?|t Ai ?@|L?@* }Lih?4i?| _i|ih4?it |i |@ M@ti uLh
ML| |iti |@ it Ai *LU@* }Lih?4i?| |@ t ThLTLh|L?@* @?_ t _i|ih4?i_ M) i@U
Lu 5i_i?<t 2HH *LU@* }Lih?4i?|tc @*|L} tL4i ?UL4i hi_t|hM|L? _Lit |@!i
T*@Ui Mi|ii? } @?_ *L ?UL4i 4?UT@*|it W? bbc |i *LU@* }Lih?4i?| |@
h@|i @hi_ Mi|ii? 2SH. @?_ eH TihUi?| *i |i 4i@? |@ h@|i @t f TihUi?|
5i_i?<t ?UL4i |@ t)t|i4 @t h@_U@**) U@?}i_ ? |i |@ hiuLh4 Lu bb
At |@ hiuLh4 i?UL4T@tti_ uLh u?_@4i?|@* U@?}it 6ht|c uhL4 Mi?} ?€i_ ?
|i ThihiuLh4 |@ t)t|i4c |i |@ M@ti @t __i_ ?|L i@h?i_ @?_ U@T|@* ?UL4i

S
 7D[ LQ 
7D[ LQ 

0DUJLQDO WD[ UDWH LQ 











     
,QFRPH

6}hi 2G ihUi?|@}i 4@h}?@* |@ h@|it ? |i Thi @?_ TLt| bb 5i_t ?UL4i
|@ hiuLh4 hi}4it hitTiU|i*) A@ @M*i ?UL4i ? |Lt@?_t 5,k

5iUL?_c |i 4@h}?@* |@ h@|it ihi tMt|@?|@**) _iUhi@ti_


6}hi 2 tLt |i hi*@|L? Mi|ii? |@ @M*i ?UL4i @?_ 4@h}?@* |@ h@|it ?_ih
|i Thi @?_ TLt|hiuLh4 ?UL4i |@ hi}4it hitTiU|i*) 6Lh |i U@*U*@|L?t ?_ih
*)?} |i 6}hi |i *LU@* }Lih?4i?| |@ h@|i t ti| @|  TihUi?| t U@? Mi tii? ?
6}hi 2c |i }it| 4@h}?@* |@ h@|i @t hi_Ui_ uhL4 |i *LU@* }Lih?4i?| |@
h@|i T*t e2 TihUi?| ?@|L?@* |@ h@|i E| @ 4@ 44 ti| |L .D TihUi?| ? UL4M?i_
4@h}?@* |@ h@|i |L @ 2f TihUi?| ?@|L?@* |@ h@|i ? @__|L? |L |i *LU@* }Lih?4i?|
|@  W| t @*tL i_i?| uhL4 6}hi c |@| 4Lt| u** |4i @}i i@h?ihtc ? |i ?UL4i
?|ih@* Mi|ii? .f fff @?_ .f fff 5,kc __ hiUii tMt|@?|@* hi_U|L?t ? |ih
4@h}?@* |@ h@|it Ai hi@tL? ) |i 4@h}?@* |@ h@|i _iUhi@tit ? tL4i ?UL4i
?|ih@*t ? |i TLt| hiuLh4 hi}4i t _i |L |i u@U| |@| |i M@tU _i_U|L? @t
4@_i ?UL4i _iTi?_i?| @?_ ?Uhi@tit | ?UL4i ? tL4i ?|ih@*t @?_ _iUhi@tit
| ?UL4i ? L|ih ?|ih@*t
Ai |h_ 4@? UL4TL?i?|c Lu |i bb |@ hiuLh4c @t @ tMt|@?|@* MhL@_i??}
Lu |i |@ M@ti 5iih@* ThiLt*) ?L?|@ i_ uh?}i Mi?i€|t ihi 4@_i |@ @M*i @u|ih
|i hiuLh4 *tLc tiih@* tihUit ihi 4@_i |@ @M*i uLh VA 6?@**)c |i uLh|
4@? UL4TL?i?| Lu |i |@ hiuLh4c @t @ tMt|@?|@* ?Uhi@ti ? |i U*_ @?_ Lt?}
@**L@?Uit Ai U*_ @**L@?Uic U t |i t@4i @4L?| Tih U*_ hhitTiU|i
Lu |i T@hi?|t ?UL4ic @t ?Uhi@ti_ M) @ML| L?i |h_ 6Lh i @4T*ic |i U*_
@**L@?Ui uLh |i €ht| U*_ @t ?Uhi@ti_ uhL4 S .2f |L b fff 5,k Tih )i@h Ai
Lt?} @**L@?Ui tc UL?|h@h) |L |i U*_ @**L@?Uic 4i@?t |it|i_ Ai @4L?| t
_i|ih4?i_ M) |i ?__@*<t i@h??}t |L )i@ht MiuLhi i Lh ti @U|@**) hiUiit
|i @**L@?Ui T@)4i?|c @t i** @t t Lh ih Lt?} ULt|t Ai 4@}?|_i Lu |i
?Uhi@ti Lu |i Lt?} @**L@?Ui @t @ML| |i t@4i @t |@| uLh U*_ @**L@?Ui

.
A@M*i G ih@}i h@|it Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui @t i** @t ?4Mih Lu LMtih@|L?t ? _gihi?|
}hLTt M) @}i @?_ }i?_ih Ai @*it |? |i T@h@?|itt @hi uLh |i t@4T*i ti_
? it|4@|L? E6Lh |i 4@*it Dc 22c c @?_  ?__@*t _L ?L| U@?}i t|@|i uhL4
|ih ?|@* t|@|i ? Lh!c hitTiU|i*) 6Lh |i ui4@*it |i ULhhitTL?_} €}hit @hi
fc Hc e @?_  AL ?__@*t ? ML| |i tM}hLTt ui4@*it @?_ 4@*it @}i_
efeb @?_ |hii ?__@*t ? |i tM}hLTt ui4@*it @?_ 4@*it @}i_ DfSe _L ?L|
*i@i |i ?|@* Lh! @Mti?Ui t|@|i

ih@}i t@hi @Mti?| uhL4 Lh! 4Mih Lu LMtih@|L?t


}i }hLT i? `L4i? AL|@* i? `L4i? AL|@*
2f2b fDSf EfSfS f.Hb EfHD2 fSD2 Ef.fS b. EH2  e E2e  E fS
f b fS f Ef.2f fHff EfHeS f.f. Ef..b .. EDD e. E b 2e E2be
efeb fS. EfSH  fb2S EfHb2 fHf Ef.be bf ED. bD E.b HD E S
DfSe D2 E2fb fHe E2  . ESD .e Eef H2 EeH DS E2HH
AL|@* f.eS Ef.HS fb Efb  fH2D EfHDS . H ES e SDH EDbf c bS E 22e

 #itUhT|i 5|@|t|Ut Lu `Lh! Mti?Ui i@Lh


Ai ThiLt tiU|L? tLi_ |@| |i 5W @t i** @t |i ?UL4i |@ t)t|i4 |L @ *@h}i
i |i?| ?i?Ui_ |i iUL?L4U ?Ui?|it Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh At tiU|L?
_itUhMitc M) hiTLh|?} tL4i _itUhT|i t|@|t|Utc L |iti ?t|||L?t |L @ *@h}i
i |i?| _i|ih4?i |i T@||ih? Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh Aihi @hi |L 4L|it uLh
tL?} |iti _itUhT|i t|@|t|Ut 6ht|c | t ?iUitt@h) |L |@!i Uih|@? @tTiU|t Lu |i
LMtihi_ Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh ?|L @UUL?| i? 4L_i**?} Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh
5iUL?_c M) €ht| *LL!?} @| |i _@|@c | ** Mi i_i?| U @tTiU|t Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui
Mi@Lh |@| i 4@) }i| @ _iiTih !?L*i_}i Lu M) 4L_i**?} Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh
iUL?L4i|hU@**)

 #h@|L? ? `Lh! @?_ `Lh! Mti?Ui


6Lh i@U Lu |i ?__@*t ? |i t@4T*ic i U@? LMtihi i|ih Lh ?L| |i) ihi
@Mti?| uhL4 Lh! EUL4Ti?t@|i_ uhL4 |i 5W _h?} . f _@)t W| t i** !?L? |@|
|ihi @hi tiih@* }i?_ih _gihi?Uit @t i** @t _gihi?Uit Mi|ii? _gihi?| @}i }hLTt
? Lh! @Mti?Ui Mi@Lh Ai @ih@}i t@hi Lu ?__@*t @Mti?| uhL4 Lh!c @t
i** @t |i ?4Mih Lu LMtih@|L?tc ? _gihi?| @}i }hLTtc uLh ML| 4i? @?_ L4i?c
? |i t@4T*i @hi Thiti?|i_ ? A@M*i  At A@M*i tLt |@| |i h@|i Lu Lh!
@Mti?Ui t tL4i@| }ih uLh L4i? ? @** @}i}hLTt i UiT| ? |i L*_it|c |Lti
@}i_ Mi|ii? Df @?_ Se W| U@? @*tL Mi tii? |@| |i h@|i Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui hi4@?t
@*4Lt| UL?t|@?| uLh ML| }i?_ih }hLTt ?|* |i @}i }hLT Df |L Sec @| U TL?|
| ?Uhi@tit tMt|@?|@**) | |i U@?}i *@h}it| uLh 4i?

H
AL t|_) _gihi?Uit Mi|ii? |iti }hLTt ? |i _h@|L? Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui @t i** @t
Lh! Thiti?Uic i ti ?L?T@h@4i|hU it|4@|it Lu th@* h@|it ? |iti tTi**t 6}hi
 tLt |i k@T*@?iih it|4@|it Lu th@* h@|i ? |i Lh! t|@|i MiuLhi @?_
@u|ih |i hiuLh4 Lu |i 5W Lu @hU t|c bb At €}hi hiTLh|t tiT@h@|i it|4@|it uLh
i@U Lu |i }hLTt UL?t_ihi_ ? A@M*i  Ai ULhhitTL?_?} it|4@|it uLh th@*
? |i Lh! @Mti?Ui t|@|i t hiTLh|i_ ? 6}hi 2
6}hi  tLt @ 4@h!i_ ?Uhi@ti ? |i _h@|L? Lu |i Lh! Thiti?Ui tTi**t
_i |L |i hiuLh4 Lu |i 5W At U@? Mi tii? ? @** @}i}hLTt @?_ @4L?}t| 4i?
@t i** @t L4i? Ai *@h}it| igiU| t uLh 4i? ? |i L*_it| @}i}hLT Ai igiU|
Lu |i hiuLh4 L? |i _h@|L? Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**t tii4t |L Mi t4@** @UULh_?} |L
|i k@T*@?iih it|4@|it hiTLh|i_ ? 6}hi 2 ? i UiT|L? t |i |L )L?}it|
ui4@*i @}i}hLTtc ihi @ t4@** _iUhi@ti ? |i _h@|L? Lu |i tTi** @u|ih |i hiuLh4
t _i|iU|i_
 U@hiu* i @4?@|L? Lu 6}hit  @?_ 2 @?_ A@M*i  hii@*t tL4i ?|ihit|
?} }i?_ih _gihi?Uit `L4i? @i L? @ih@}i @ }ih h@|i Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui Ai
k@T*@?iih it|4@|it tLt |@| |t _gihi?Ui t Th4@h*) _i |L @ tLh|ih _h@
|L? ? |i Lh! Thiti?Ui t|@|itc i @i 4Lhi uhi^i?| Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**tc @*|L}
|i) hi|h? uhL4 |ih Lh! @Mti?Ui tL4i@| u@t|ih W? |i @}i }hLT DfSec |i @
ih@}i Lh! @Mti?Ui h@|i t tL4i@| }ih @4L?} 4i? W? |t @}i }hLTc U t
i_i?| uhL4 6}hi 2c 4i? hi|h? |L Lh! UL?t_ih@M*) t*Lih |@? L4i?
) UL4T@h?} 6}hi  | 6}hi 2 | U@? @*tL Mi tii? |@| |i Lh! @Mti?Ui
tTi**t @hi ih) _gihi?| uhL4 |i Lh! Thiti?Ui tTi**t Ai th@* h@|i ? |i Lh!
Thiti?Ui t|@|i t 4U *@h}ih UL4T@hi_ |L |i Lh! @Mti?Ui t|@|i t i@*| _i€Ui?
Uit @hi Mi?_ 4Lt| Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**tc |i i T*@?@|L? uLh |i LMtihi_ _gihi?Ui
tc Lu ULhtic |@| |ihi @hi _gihi?| ML*L}U@* ThLUittit ?_ih*)?} |i |h@?t|L?
uhL4 Lh! |L Lh! @Mti?Ui UL4T@hi_ |L uhL4 Lh! @Mti?Ui M@U! |L Lh! At 4@)
Mi @ |h@* TL?|c M| | t 4TLh|@?| |L @i ? 4?_ i? Lh! @Mti?Ui t 4L_i**i_
iUL?L4i|hU@**)

2 `ii!_@) ,giU|t


t i _itUhMi_ ? |i ThiLt tiU|L?c |i Lh!ih U@? L?*) U*@4 Mi?i€|t uhL4 |i
5W uLh *Lt| i@h??}t uhL4 hi}*@h Lh! Lht Lt| Lh!ih<t _L ?L| Lh! L? 5@|h_@)t
?Lh L? 5?_@)t t |ihi @hi ?L ?Ui?|it uLh @ Lh!ih |L Mi}? @ tU!?itt tTi** L? @
Lh!uhii _@)c |i h@|i Lu Lh! @Mti?Ui ** _gih Mi|ii? _gihi?| ii! _@)t
6}hi  tLt |i _t|hM|L? Lu U ii!_@) @ Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**t t|@h| L?
@?_ |i _t|hM|L? Lu U ii!_@) Lh! @Mti?Ui tTi**t i?_ L? Ai €}hi tLt
i @U|*) @| U@? Mi i TiU|i_ }i? |i h*it uLh |i 5WG |i hi*@|i*) *@h}i ThLTLh|L?
Lu |i tU!?itt tTi**t |@| Mi}? L? L?_@)t hiiU| |i u@U| |@| tL4i i@*| ThLM*i4t
4@) @UU4*@|i _h?} |i ii!i?_t Ai *@h}i ThLTLh|L? Lu tU!?itt tTi**t |@| i?_
L? @ 5@|h_@) @t @ t4*@h i T*@?@|L?c @t hiULihit uhL4 |i4TLh@h) **?ittit @*tL
@UU4*@|i _h?} |i ii!i?_t

You might also like