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Criza, Politicile Comerciale Și Schimbările În Configuraţia Protecţionismului
Criza, Politicile Comerciale Și Schimbările În Configuraţia Protecţionismului
Criza, Politicile Comerciale Și Schimbările În Configuraţia Protecţionismului
PROTECIONISMULUI
DR. AGNES GHIBUIU
Abstract
The Great Recession of 200809 provided a fertile ground for protectionist pressures to
increase. It caused a negative shock to the global economy that is comparable with the Great
Depression of the 1930s. International trade suffered a historical collapse in 2009, but trade flows
quickly rebounded thereafter. And unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s, the recent global
economic contraction did not trigger a massive wave of protectionism as expected. Despite
important adjustments in many countries trade policies during the crisis and, hence, a quite
notable increase in the incidence of protectionist measures, there is a widely shared belief that
crisis related protectionism has been kept under control, being rather modest and limited
compared with both the negative effects of the crisis and the initial concerns. A large agreement
emerged also among analysts on the important role of WTOs multilateral rules and disciplines in
preventing exacerbation of economic nationalism and protectionism. The views on intensity,
dynamics and potential impact of current contemporary protectionism continue, however, to
diverge as they reflect in part the significant differences between the results of the different
monitoring exercises, carried out particularly by the WTO and Global Trade Alert. But beyond these
differences, the latest monitoring reports contain alarming signs of escalating protectionism over
the post-crisis years due to the growing difficulties in the world economy.
This paper takes a look at the main trends in global protectionism during and after the crisis
and some of its potential implications. In doing so, the paper starts by contrasting protectionism
that accompanied the Great Depression of the 1930s with the present-day protectionist
phenomenon in order to briefly outline the peculiarities of the latter. Then it addresses the main
factors contributing to staving off trade protectionism during the recent crisis. Relying on the
results of the latest monitoring reports published by the WTO and Global Trade Alert, it takes stock
of the protectionist trade policy measures in order to disentangle the salient features of
contemporary protectionism and consider its outlook and some of its implications. Finally, the
paper stresses the importance of concluding urgently the Doha Round as the most meaningful way
of reducing protectionisms threat to the global recovery.
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Introducere
Criza financiar global declanat n toamna anului 2008 i cea mai grav
recesiune economic din perioada postbelic care i-a urmat cunoscut n
literatura de specialitate i ca marea recesiune au creat un teren fertil pentru
manifestarea presiunilor protecioniste.
Istoria economic demonstreaz c, n general, n perioadele de recesiune
economic se intensific recurgerea la msurile de aprare comercial, ntruct
presate
fiind
de
spectrul
creterii
omajului
sau
de
dezechilibrele
n contextul Marii Depresiuni a anilor 1930, rile au reacionat prin implementarea unor politici
destinate fie izolrii lor fa de economia global, fie discriminrii partenerilor comerciali ca form de
retorsiune, ceea ce a adncit i prelungit depresiunea. Drept urmare, politicile comerciale promovate n
acei ani au contribuit la distrugerea comerului i au avut ca efect mpiedicarea relurii relaiilor
comerciale multilaterale atunci cnd condiiile economice pe plan naional s-au ameliorat (Bown, 2011).
8 Temerile legate de modul de utilizare a politicilor comerciale de ctre marile economii ale lumii i de
dimensiunea real a fenomenului protecionist au dat natere unui efort colectiv de monitorizare a
msurilor de politic comercial, pus n aplicare la nivel global, cu scopul de a mbunti transparena n
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acest domeniu. Este vorba de trei iniiative majore de monitorizare a politicilor comerciale, care s-au
desfurat pe tot parcursul crizei i care continu i n prezent. Astfel, la solicitarea G-20, OMC (mpreun
cu OCDE i UNCTAD) public periodic rapoarte privind modul n care aceste ri i respect
angajamentele asumate cu ocazia primei reuniuni legate de criz, din noiembrie 2008, de la Washington,
de a rezista n faa protecionismului i de a promova comerul i investiiile globale. Un exerciiu paralel
de monitorizare este desfurat de Global Trade Alert (GTA) un organism independent, care urmrete
msurile guvernamentale susceptibile a discrimina mpotriva partenerilor comerciali, rezultatele fiind
publicate sub form de rapoarte periodice i de informaii furnizate n timp real pe site-ul acestuia. n fine,
Banca Mondial, prin baza sa de date privind barierele temporare la import, monitorizeaz msurile de
aprare/remediere comercial, adic msurile antidumping, taxele compensatorii i msurile de
salvgardare; rezultatele sunt publicate sub form de studii elaborate sub auspiciile Bncii Mondiale, dar
pot fi accesate i online pe site-ul acesteia.
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2008
1,3
0,1
5,6
2,3
0,9
4,6
-15,7
2009
-2,6
-4,0
2,1
-12,1
-15,2
-7,5
-32,1
2010
3,7
2,7
7,1
14,1
12,9
16,1
4,9
18
20111
2,5
1,5
5,9
5,8
3,7
8,5
...
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exacerbarea
naionalismului
economic
recrudescena
protecionismului.
Dar dincolo de curentul de opinie dominant, care pune ntr-o lumin relativ
favorabil evoluia protecionismului comercial asociat crizei (i care grupeaz cu
precdere economitii afiliai unor organisme economice internaionale
importante precum OMC i Banca Mondial), nu sunt puini nici acei analiti care
mprtesc convingeri diametral opuse. Acetia din urm aduc argumente solide
c protecionismul din anii de criz i post-criz nu trebuie subestimat, c
fenomenul tinde s se amplifice, iar efectele sale negative nu vor ntrzia s apar,
chiar dac nu i-au pus nc amprenta cel puin pn n prezent pe evoluia
principalilor indicatori economici la nivel agregat.
ndeosebi
perioadele
de
criz,
pentru
contribui
la
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9 n cele ce urmeaz ne referim n special la opiniile unor renumii analiti precum Gary Hufbauer (de la Peterson
Institute for International Economics), Daniel Griswold (Cato Institute) i Mona Haddad (Banca Mondial) , care au
fost exprimate cu prilejul dezbaterii publice intitulate The Future of Protectionism, organizat sub auspiciile
institutului american Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, la data de 26 mai 2011, la Washington, pe
marginea crii: Is Protectionism Dying?, semnat de Uri Dadush, Shimelse Ali i Rachel Odell (de la Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace) [Vezi Dadush, Ali i Odell (2011)].
10 Pe de alt parte, exist i analiti care sunt de prere c o contribuie real a OMC n perioada crizei ar fi trebuit s
fie ncheierea negocierilor comerciale multilaterale din Runda Doha, aflate ntr-o mare ntrziere (fiind lansate nc n
2001). Or, acest lucru nu s-a ntmplat. i, nu n ultimul rnd, exist i analiti care au o atitudine fi rezervat
fa de contribuia real a regulilor OMC la ngrdirea fenomenului protecionist [Vezi n acest sens
Evenett (2010; 2011a,b)].
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guvernelor
reuit
in
sub control
presiunile
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22
23
12
25
26
27
secolul al XXI-lea difer substanial de cea care cade sub incidena acordurilor
comerciale convenite n secolul trecut. i s ne reamintim n acest context faptul
c au trecut 17 ani de cnd au fost reajustate ultima oar regulile i disciplinele
multilaterale, ca rezultat al Rundei Uruguay (1986-1994) i al crerii OMC n
1995. Dei printre obiectivele Rundei Doha declanate n 2001 s-a numrat i cel
al adaptrii regulilor multilaterale la noile realiti din economia mondial, acest
obiectiv, ca i multe altele, nu au putut fi realizate din cauza impasului n care au
intrat negocierile n iulie 2008.
considerabil
protecionismului
contemporan,
care
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nc din noiembrie 2008, liderii G-20 au insistat, n repetate rnduri, asupra nevoii de a manifesta
reinere fa de recurgerea la protecionism. n ultima lor declaraie (din noiembrie 2011, de la Cannes),
acetia i-au reafirmat angajamentele de ngheare a msurilor protecioniste pn la sfritul anului
2013, i s-au angajat s elimine orice nou msur protecionist introdus, inclusiv noile restricii la
export i msurile de stimulare a exporturilor, neconforme cu regulile OMC.
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14 Potrivit calculelor specialitilor FMI, noile msuri protecioniste reduc comerul global cu cel puin 0,2%
anual (sau cu 30-35 miliarde dolari). Dar, la nivelul produselor afectate, reducerea este mult mai
pronunat, respectiv de 5% n cazul msurilor la frontier (taxe vamale i alte msuri tradiionale) i de
7% n cazul msurilor din interiorul frontierelor (tipuri de protecionism neconvenional, precum barierele
netarifare, politicile de achiziii discriminatorii, planurile de salvare financiar i subveniile interne)
(Henn i McDonald, 2011).
30
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