Running Head: DRAFT POSTION AND PERFORMANCE

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The correlation of draft position and performance on a professional level in the NHL
Erik Unger
Belmont University

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The correlation of draft position and performance on a professional level in the NHL
Introduction
Before every new season, just about every major sport league in the United states has a
draft. The draft can be the most exciting moment during the offseason, and it can bring either
hope or dread to its fans. The draft can build off the excitement of the post-season, and can be
viewed as the true start of the next season. It offers teams a chance to pick up some of the most
promising prospects for the future of the sport. While every team would love to get the best picks
during the first round of the draft, the same excitement is lacking when it comes to the later
rounds. Each team spends a great amount of time on scouting, and every general manager, along
with the coaches and other staff, plan and take into great consideration all the possibilities of
what the draft may bring. With all the time and planning that can go into the drafts, how
successful are all these teams when it comes to finding the best players for the future? If a
majority of teams are not successful, or not as successful as they would like to be, is there better
method to preparing for the draft, or do the drafts simply come down to luck of the draw. In other
words, does draft position truly matter, or can greatness be found whether it comes from the first
pick of the draft or the very last.
The purpose of this research project is to determine if draft position and performance,
particularly pertaining to the NHL, are related. Do players drafted much earlier end up
performing better in the NHL than those drafted much later? The answer to this question looks to
offer some insight on whether teams should reconsider their selections during the draft process.
Of course, just about every team dedicates a great amount of time and research in its scouting. As

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Cade Massey stated in his research on drafting in the NFL, all teams have skill in drafting, but
its just that teams are equally skilled, in a very uncertain environment. (Jensen 2013).
In Jensens article Wharton professor: Success in the NFL Draft about luck, not smarts,
Massey is quoted stating that while teams can have good years and bad years in the draft, it all
comes down to luck. Those differences arent persistent year-to-year, which tells me that they
are chance driven. Something between 95 and 100 percent - Im not exaggerating - of team
differences in the draft is driven by chance, says Massey (Jensen 2013). There is another article
in which Massey is quoted discussing draft picks within the NFL and their value. In the article
Rethinking the Massey-Thaler Draft Study by Brian Burke, Massey explicitly correlates draft
position and value, saying it makes absolutely no sense to be giving so much money to
unproven rookies, many of whom turn out to be busts (Burke 2010).
While these two articles, both of which quote Massey on his draft study within the NFL,
talk about luck within the draft and performance of drafted players, the research on the same
topic is a bit different within the NHL. While there is research on draft position and performance
in relation to the NHL, the primary focus of these studies tend to pertain to the well documented
relative age effect (RAE) that can play a major role on when players are drafted in the NHL.
However, this study looks beyond how RAE plays a role during the draft and if those players are
effective on an NHL level, and looks to answer the questions on effectiveness of the draft on a
player by player basis given their draft position.
The major question of this study is does draft placement correlate to performance on a
professional level within the NHL. The question does not lend itself to an easy hypothesis, as

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there are many factors that can play a role in draft decisions, as well as there being the possibility
of just having good luck. Going into the study, the current hypothesis is that a player drafted in
the last round of the draft can perform just as well as a player drafted in the earlier rounds. But
this then raises the question if is this because of poor draft planning, or does it have to do with
luck. To clarify, this study will focus not just on the first and last rounds of a draft. There is a
reason certain players are drafted within the first five picks while others are not drafted until the
final five. However, these positions will not be disregarded, but there will be more of an
emphasis on breaking the draft into three stages (early, middle, and late), and determining the
performance of the players within each stage.
While there is a basis for the research, with many articles discussing the drafts and player
performance, there are still limitations to this research. The primary source of data for this
research is statistics of the players. These statistics can come from time spent before going
professional to their time in the NHL. However, this data is purely quantitative, and while it can
prove reliable and valid when determining performance compared to draft spot, it does not
answer the question of why a player was drafted when they were. The draft contains the human
factor of decision, and there are many factors other than perceived performance that can affect
draft position, such as prone to injury, bad attitude or unsportsmanlike, and the availability of
other potential draft candidates. To understand the human decision factor, it would require a
more in depth qualitative approach that could prove to be time consuming.
Because this study will focus on the performance of players within the NHL, it is
important to understand how performance will be judged. Every sport has its own positions and
system of rating. In the NHL, there are three different positions which can be rated differently.

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As a forward on the ice, the important factors in rating are goals (G), assists (A), and points (P).
For defensive players, important factors in ratings are hits (H) and blocked shots (BS). For
goaltenders, the important factors are goals against average (GAA), save percentage (S%), wins
(W), and shutouts (SO). There are also several factors that can play a role in ratings for both
forwards and defenseman such as plus/minus (+/-), time on ice (TOI), and penalty minutes
(PIM).
Review of Literature
In order to determine the proper questions to ask and the methods to find the answers,
several previous studies and articles were reviewed. Two of the articles, Wharton professor:
Success in the NFL Draft about luck, not smarts by Mike Jensen and Rethinking the MasseyThaler Draft Study by Brian Burke, discuss the draft within the NFL. Wharton professor:
Success in the NFL Draft about luck, not smarts, talks about the aspect of luck within the draft,
while Rethinking the Massey-Thaler Draft Study discusses the aspect of performance and value
of recently drafted players. Then there are the two studies that focus on RAE within the NHL,
Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft by Robert O. Deaner, Aaron Lowen,
and Stephen Cobley, and Developmental contexts and sporting success: birth date and birthplace
effects in national hockey league draftees 20002005 by Joseph Baker and A Jane Logan.
When discussing the draft within the NFL, Jensen focuses on Masseys thoughts on luck.
Jensen, based on statements from Massey, uses some great examples on just how much luck can
be involved within the draft by looking at some of the NFLs biggest stars and what round they
were drafted in. His first example is one of the Patriots sixth round draft pick, Tom Brady. Jensen
says, If theyd known Brady was going to be half as good as he turned out to be, they obviously

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wouldnt have let everyone else have a crack at him for five-plus rounds. Jensen makes a great
point, and shows that high performance can come from outside the first few rounds. An example
that shows how early round draft picks can prove to be under performers was Cleveland Browns
first round pick Tim Couch. While Couch had his share of highlights, did he perform any better
than quarterbacks selected in the later rounds (Jensen 2013)?
Where this article lends support on the subject of luck within the draft process is that it
has strong examples to back up the idea. With the ability to know how these draft picks have
performed, it is easy to look back and see which draft picks that were expected to perform
strongly within the NFL did not perform based on expectations, as well as see which NFL stars
have performed well and beyond pre-draft expectations. Where this article has shortcomings, is
that it is based off of someone else's study. There is no mention of the method involved in
determining success or failure on a professional level. Also, while the examples are good ones,
two examples do not prove a theory, it just helps form a basis for it.
Going off of the same study by Massey, Burke discusses the value placed on NFL draft
players and their performance. In Rethinking the Massey-Thaler Draft Study, Burke focuses on
the perceived value of these rookie players, the performance that is expected of them, and the
salaries these players receive. Burke explains that the premise of the Massey-Thaler draft study
is that teams place far too much confidence in early round draft picks, shown evident by the
determination for teams to trade for and earn more earlier round picks (Burke 2010). Burke
explains that Massey and Thaler compare the expected performance of these early round draft
picks and compares that to the salary amongst all the players drafted. In short, while all the

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players drafted are expected to perform to a certain degree, the top round draft picks get paid far
more for their expected value than those drafted later.
Once again, there is a comparison between draft placement and expected performance,
however, Burke seems to disagree with the views of Massey and Thaler. In relation to Massey
and Thalers findings and data, Burke states, While I trust the statistical findings of the paper, it
doesn't suggest that rookies are overpaid. It suggests the opposite. And further, there may be a
good reason why the very top picks are so highly valued (Burke 2010). This article acts as a
good counter balance for the argument that early round draft picks can be more important that
later round picks. Burke states there is a reason these early round draft picks are payed more in
comparison to later round draft picks, but he lacks any evidence or data of his own to prove it.
Instead, Burke uses several metaphors as examples. These examples essentially say that the
better players, even if only slightly better, will always out perform the other players. Where
Burkes argument falls apart is that he does not take into consideration that draft placement does
not always equal performance ability.
In Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft, Deaner, Lowen, and Cobley
look to answer the question on how do relative age effects (RAEs) correlate to success in the
NHL by focusing on selection bias in the NHL draft and the draftees productivity. RAEs are
defined as occurring when older individuals for their given age group are offered more
opportunities to succeed. Deaner, Lowen, and Cobley hypothesize that the reason behind the
selection bias of older players over younger players in the NHL draft is the idea that older
players will be more physically and mentally mature. Data was gathered straight from results of
the drafts, and the players statistics such as games played, goals, etc. and the players age in

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relation to their age group. Success on the NHL level was purely based on how the players
performed by their NHL stats.
The outcome of these studies determined several conclusions. First, RAEs existed in
every NHL draft taken into account. There were more older players drafted in a given year than
there were younger players. The second conclusion was that when looking at the draft overall,
specific rounds of the draft, and using Tobit regression to account for players who were not
drafted at all, the younger players were more productive despite having fewer drafted, and the
younger players ended up playing more games in the NHL. This study by Deaner, Lowen, and
Cobley help form a basis on draft position and performance. While the focus of this particular
study was more so on RAE, it lends credence that there is a correlation and helps setup a method
for continuing the study on draft position and performance.
Developmental contexts and sporting success: birth date and birthplace effects in
national hockey league draftees 20002005 by Joseph Baker and A Jane Logan also focused on
RAE within the NHL draft, but also added the element of birthplace (US and Canada). Baker and
Logan found similar results as Deaner, Lowen, and Cobley, stating key findings that relatively
younger players are chosen earlier in the draft, suggesting that these players may show superior
performance compared with their relatively older peers (Baker and Logan 2007). What was an
interesting find by Baker and Logan was that RAE had more of an effect on Canadian players
than American players, however, it is stated that more research is required on the effect
birthplace has on draft placement. Baker and Logans research shares strong similarities with that
of Deaner, Lowen, and Cobley. Both focus on RAE within the NHL draft, as well as also

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discussing draft placement. However, Baker and Logan do not discuss at much length the
performance of the players drafted in relation to draft position.

Research Design and Methods

In order to answer the question on whether or not draft position shares a correlation with
performance in the NHL, both quantitate and qualitative research methods will be used. The
quantitative portion of the research will come from looking at past drafts, the players who were
drafted and at what position they were drafted, and how they have performed in the NHL since
being drafted. As mentioned earlier, performance will be based by position (forward,
defenseman, and goaltender) on several statistical categories. These categories are goals (G),
assists (A), points (P), hits (H), blocked shots (BS), goals against average (GAA), save
percentage (S%), wins (W), shutouts (SO), plus/minus (+/-), time on ice (TOI), and penalty
minutes (PIM).
The qualitative portion of the research will come from interviewing with key
administration in charge of draft decisions to understand why certain players were drafted when
they were. The quantitative research will offer hard numbers that distinctly show how effective a
player was. By looking at the stats of players in the NHL, it can be determined how effective a
player was in relation to their draft position. The qualitative portion of the research will serve to
give a human perspective on the draft that does not focus on just shear numbers of stats. This can
include positions that need filling, chemistry with current players, and leadership ability.
In the study Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft, Deaner, Lowen,
and Cobley compared draft position and performance of players from the 1980 draft through the

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2006 draft. The 26 year draft period gave a large sample of players that allowed all players to
have time to contribute during their time in the NHL. Baker and Logan conducted a similar study
focusing on the drafts between 2000 and 2005. This study will follow a very similar design using
drafts in the NHL from 2000 and 2009. This time frame will allow for the study of 10 recent
NHL drafts, including 2,531 players, while still giving time for players of the most recent draft to
have some time in the NHL. Keeping the sample size to more recent drafts also allows the
possibility that those who were involved in the draft decisions are still involved with those teams,
or in the NHL to some extent.
The quantitative study should be free of any ethical issues with the sample. Every player
in the sample has stats that are openly available to the public and can easily be accessed by the
NHLs owns website. The qualitative portion of this study will require preparing for ethical
consideration. While the interview process will promote free form discussion, there will be a
certain set of questions that pushes the conversation toward understanding why players were
drafted and at what point. These questions will need to be reviewed in order to to be ethical,
unobjectionable, and inoffensive. Anonymity will also have to be taken into account. This is
important for several reasons, such as keeping drafting strategies anonymous, information about
particular players and why they were or were not drafted anonymous, and to prevent any fan or
administration backlash for disclosing information on previous drafts.
The data collection process will be two fold. The collection of the data for the
quantitative portion will be quite simple. This only requires looking at all the players drafted
between 2000 and 2009, documenting when they were drafted , and how they have performed in
the NHL. Performance will be based on the standards listed earlier. Players performance will be

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rated and then compared related to when they were drafted. The qualitative portion of the
research will require setting up interviews with coaches, general managers, and presidents of
various NHL teams in order to discuss why draft decisions were made. The data from these
interviews will be documented and compared to the performance of those players.
When it comes to validity and reliability, the quantitative portion of the research will be
reliable, as well as valid. The research will be valid because it is based on straight numbers that
are fact and will not change. Because the data is based on statistics, whether there is a correlation
between daft position and performance or not, it can demonstrate two possible outcomes. Either
there is a correlation one way or the other, or it can express Masseys thoughts on the draft and it
mostly comes down to chance . As with the quantitative data, the qualitative data should prove to
be reliable as it will be based off of interviews with not only professionals in the industry but
people who were involved in the drafts during the sample period. Because the purpose of the
qualitative data serves to add a human perspective to the draft process it should also prove to be
valid. Concurrent validity can be used to compare data from stats and draft position and be
measured with data from the interviews.

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References
Baker, J., Logan, A. (2007). Developmental contexts and sporting success: birth date and
birthplace effects in national hockey league draftees 20002005. British Journal of Sports
Medicine. 41, 515-517.
Burke, B. (2010, April 7). Rethinking the Massey-Thaler Draft Study. Advanced NFL Stats.
Retrieved October 28, 2013, from
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/04/rethinking-massey-thaler-draft-study.html.
Deaner, R., Lowen, A., & Cobley, S. (2013). Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL
Draft. PLoS ONE. (8)2, e57753.
Jensen, M. (2013, September). Wharton professor: Success in the NFL Draft about luck, not
smarts [Electronic version]. The Philadelphia Inquirer.