MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

UNIT 5 Probability

Activities

Activities
5.1

Nearly the Nine O'Clock News

5.2

Evens and Odds

5.3

Experimental Probability

5.4

A Russian Fable

5.5

Break the Bank

5.6

Open and Shut Case

5.7

Fruit Machines

5.8

Seek and Win

5.9

Misconceptions

5.10 Birthdays
5.11 Genetic Fingerprinting
Notes and Solutions (2 pages)

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MEP: Demonstration Project

ACTIVITY 5.1

UNIT 5: Probability

Nearly the Nine O'Clock News

"What might be on the news tonight? Write down four things which you think could be on
the news tonight."
While pupils are writing down ideas, draw a probability line on
board or OHP, labelled impossible, unlikely, even, likely, certain.
"Copy the line in your books, mark on the line where you think each of the items you have
chosen will come on the line."
After pupils have written their ideas down, ask them to compare
their line with a neighbour's.
"I'd like a volunteer to put one of their news items on the line on the board."
Invite individual pupils to put one of their ideas on the board.
Encourage discussion of the placing of the event, using correct
language. Which event is more likely? How much more likely?
Draw out the need for more precision.
Redraw the line with ten divisions marked on it.
"Copy this line and put your news items on it."
Invite other pupils to put some of their items on the board against
the scale.
Introduce the convention that impossible events have a probability
of 0 and certain events have a probability of 1. Mark each point on
the line as 0, 0.1, 0.2, ..., 0.9, 1.
Pupils then assign a value of 0, 0.1, 0.2, ..., 0.9, 1 to each of their
news items.
There is a further opportunity for the work to be presented as a poster with a large
probability line and pictures of current events in the news pasted on against the appropriate
point on the line.

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MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

ACTIVITY 5.2

Evens and Odds

This is a simple game, where you throw a dice which controls the position of your counter
on a 3 3 board.

FINISH

START

Place your counter at the START square. Throw a dice.

If you get an EVEN number, you move your counter one square upwards.
If you get an ODD number, you move your counter one square left.
If your counter moves off any side of the board, you lose!
If your counter reaches the FINISH square, you have won.
Play the game a few times and see if you win.

How many 'odds' and how many 'evens' do you need to get to win?

What is the probability of winning?

Extension
Analyse the same game on a 4 4, 5 5, . . ., board.

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MEP: Demonstration Project

ACTIVITY 5.3

UNIT 5: Probability

Experimental Probability

The net of a cuboctahedron is given below. It consists of 6 squares and 8 triangles.

Make this 3-dimensional object using card.

If this object is thrown, what do you think will be the probability of it landing on
(i)

one of its square faces

(ii)

one of its triangular faces?

Throw the object (at least 100 times) and estimate these probabilities.
How close are they to your original estimates?

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MEP: Demonstration Project

ACTIVITY 5.4

UNIT 5: Probability

A Russian Fable

This is the method traditionally used in some Russian villages

to see which of the girls in the village are to be married next
year! You take three blades of grass, folded in two, and hold
them in your hand so that the six ends are hanging down. A
young girl ties the ends together in pairs. If, on release, a
large loop is formed, the girl will be married next year.

1.

What are the possible outcomes for this experiment in terms

of small, medium and large loops?

2.

By labelling the six ends (say a and A for the two ends of one blade of grass),
consider all the possible outcomes and hence find the probability of getting the
large loop.

3.

Test your predicted probabilities by using short lengths of string and getting the class
to work in pairs, recording their answers. Collect all the data together and use it to
work out the experimental probabilities. Compare these to the theoretical values
found in question 2.

4.

If a Russian village has 30 young girls and they all go through this ritual, how many
do you estimate will be predicted to marry next year?

Extension
What happens if either 4 or 5 blades of grass (string) are used? What is the probability of
now obtaining one large loop?

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MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

ACTIVITY 5.5

Break the Bank

Gamblers throughout history have tried to find systems to help them beat the bank. In most
games of chance you will win eventually, but a long losing sequence can easily bankrupt
you first.
Suppose we consider a very simple game Heads and Tails in which the bank will double
your stake money if you win, but take your stake money if you lose.
Our objective is to win 10, and a possible sequence of events is shown below.

1.

Stake

Win/Lose

Outcome

Balance

10

10

10

20

20

30

40

+40

+10

STOP, since we have

now won 10

Draw up a table to show what happens when we have a sequence LLLLW.

What is the maximum negative balance?
The difficulty with this system is that it might lead to a substantial deficit before you
win. Of course, you will always win in the long run, but bankruptcy might come first!
There are adaptations of this method which usually do not result in such large
negative balances.

One method is to write 10 as 2 + 2 + 3 + 3 and follow the pattern shown below

for the given results LLLLWWLWWLW.

Sequence

STAKE is obtained from

the sum of the two outside
numbers of the sequence
If WIN, then delete the
two outside numbers

If LOSE, add in stake

money to sequence

2,2,3,3
2,2,3,3,5
2, 2,3,3,5,7
2,2,3,3,5,7,9
2,2,3,3,5,7,9,11
2,3,3,5,7,9
3,3,5,7
3,3,5,7,10
3,5,7
5,
5, 5

Stake

Win/Lose

5
7
9
11
13
11
10
13
10
5
10

L
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
W

Outcome Balance
5
7
9
11
+13
+11
10
+13
+10
5
+10

5
12
21
32
19
8
18
5
+5
0
+10

So eventually you win and, despite the initial losing sequence, the overdraft is kept
relatively small.
2.

Play this game in pairs, trying different ways of writing 10 as the sum of four
numbers. Does it make any difference writing 10 as a different sum?

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MEP: Demonstration Project

ACTIVITY 5.6

UNIT 5: Probability

Open and Shut Case

In a Game Show in America, the contestant is offered a choice of one of three doors to
open. Behind one of these doors is the star prize, a car, but behind the other two doors are
dustbins!
Once the contestant has chosen say Door 2, the host, who already knows what is behind
each door, opens one of the doors, say Door 1, to reveal a dustbin.
He then asks the contestant,
"Do you want to stick with your original choice (Door 2) or switch to the other closed door
(Door 3)?"
1.

Is it to your advantage to change your choice from Door 2 to Door 3?

It is easy to provide an argument for either policy.

ARGUMENT 1 When one door is opened, there is an equal chance of the car being
behind either of the other two doors, so there is no need to change.
ARGUMENT 2 There is a 2 in 3 chance of being wrong initially. If you were
wrong and changed, you would now be right, so the probability is
reversed and you will now be right 2 out of 3 times.
2.

Simulate this Game Show by playing it with a partner. One of you is the contestant
and the other the Game Show host. You will need to play the game at least 20 times
in order to gain insight into the solution

If this simulation does not convince you, then try using a computer program to simulate the
situation 10 000 or 20 000 times.

Extension
Suppose there are now four doors with a star prize behind one door and dustbins behind
each of the other doors.
Again the contestants are offered the chance of changing their choices.
Should they change, and if they do, what is now their probability of winning?

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MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

ACTIVITY 5.7

Fruit Machines

A fruit machine with 3 DIALS and 20 SYMBOLS (not all

different) on each dial is illustrated opposite. Each dial can
stop on any one of its 20 symbols, and each of the 20 symbols
on a dial is equally likely to occur.

BAR
BAR

So, for example, the Grapes on DIAL 1 are likely to occur on

average 7 times out of 20.
You inset 10p, press a button and the three dials spin round.
You then press more buttons to stop each dial at random.
The three symbols highlighted determine how much, if
anything, is won.
Payout
Combination
(in 10p's)
For example, Suppose the
machine makes the
payouts shown opposite.

1.

3
3
3
3
2
2

BARS BAR
STRAWBERRIES
GRAPES
APPLES
BARS
CHERRIES

40
5
5
5
20
5

BAR

BAR

Copy and complete the frequency chart below for each dial.
Symbol
BAR
STRAWBERRY
GRAPE
APPLE
CHERRY
PEAR

Dial 1

Dial 2

Dial 3

2
1
7
..
..
..

1
8
..
..
..
..

1
..
..
..
..
..

We want to find the probability of each of the combinations above to see if it is worth
playing. We first consider the 3 BARS combination.
2.

(a)
(b)
(c)

In how many ways can you obtain 3 BARS?

How many possible combinations (including repeats) are there?
What is the probability of obtaining 3 BARS?

We can find the probability of the other winning combinations in the same way.
3.
Find the probabilities of obtaining all the other winning combinations.
Your expected winnings in 10 pences are
40 ( probability of 3 BARS) + 5 ( probability of 3 STRAWBERRIES) +.....

but you must take off your initial payment of 10 pence.

4.
What is the expected gain or loss for each go?
Extension
Design your own fruit machine, work out the probabilities of certain combinations, assign
payouts and check whether the player expects to gain or lose money.

CIMT, University of Exeter

MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

ACTIVITY 5.8

Seek and Win

The fast food chain, Macduff's, is running a competition. You obtain a card which has 12
circles covered up and you can scratch off up to four circles.
You win if 3 or more PALM TREES are revealed but lose if 2 or more CRABS are
revealed. If you win you can then scratch off one of the three squares to show what you
have won.

One of the cards is shown above with all

the circles and all the squares revealed.
Macduff's want the game to be both fun
to play and relatively easy to win. Here
we find out your chance of winning if
the PALM TREES and CRABS are
always in the ratio 2 : 1.

1.

Check that the ratio of PALM TREES to CRABS is 2 : 1 on the picture above.

2.

If all the circles are now covered up, on your first choice what is the probability of
revealing
(a) a PALM TREE
(b) a CRAB?

If you obtained a PALM TREE on your first go, there are now 11 circles to be revealed, of
which 7 are PALM TREES and 4 are CRABS.
3.

What is the probability of revealing

(a) a PALM TREE (b) a CRAB
on your second go if your revealed a PALM TREE on your first go?

We can continue in this way

a tree diagram is very helpful.

P PALM TREES
C CRABS

1st Go

4.

On each of the lines opposite, write

down the probability of each event.
For example,
p( PCPP ) =

8
4
7
6

.
12 11 10 9

2nd Go
P

C
3rd Go

C
Win

4th Go
P C P C

P C

Can't win

5.

Find the probability of each winning combination. (There are 4 possibilities.)

6.

Find the probability of winning.

Extension
Work through the problems again, assuming there are now
(a) 9 PALM TREES and 3 CRABS
(b) 6 PALM TREES and 6 CRABS.

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MEP: Demonstration Project

ACTIVITY 5.9(a)

UNIT 5: Probability

Misconceptions

Misconceptions about probability may include:

All events are equally likely

Later events may be affected by or compensate for earlier ones

When determining probability from statistical data, sample size is

irrelevant

Results of games of skill are unaffected by the nature of the

participants

'Lucky/Unlucky' numbers, etc. can influence random events

In random events involving selection, results are dependent on

numbers rather than ratios

If events are random then the results of a series of independent

events are equally likely, e.g. HH is as likely as HT

When considering spinners, probability is determined by number

of sections rather than size of angles.

This activity is intended to provide an opportunity to discuss common

misconceptions. The statements given are all incorrect. They can be
copied onto card, cut into individual statements and given to pairs of
pupils to discuss. Each pair can then explain their statement and the
error to the whole group.
Alternatively, pupils can be given the complete set of statements and,
after they have had time to consider them, the statements can be
discussed by the class, or they can be used on an OHP for whole class
discussion.

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MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

ACTIVITY 5.9(b)

Misconceptions

1.

2.

I've spun an unbiased coin 3 times

and got 3 heads. It is more likely to
be tails than heads if I spin it again.

Aytown Rovers play Betown

United. Aytown can win, lose or
draw, so the probability that
1
Aytown will win is .
3

3.

4.

There are 3 red beads and 5 blue

beads in a bag. I pick a bead at
random. The probability that it is
3
red is .
5

I roll two dice and add the results.

The probability of getting a total
1
because there are 12
of 6 is
12
different possibilities and 6 is one
of them.

5.

6.

It is harder to throw a six than a

three with a die.

Tomorrow it will either rain or

not rain, so the probability that
it will rain is 0.5.

7.

8.

Mr Brown has to have a major

operation. 90% of the people who
have this operation make a
complete recovery. There is a 90%
chance that Mr Brown will make a
complete recovery if he has this
operation.

If six fair dice are thrown at the

same time, I am less likely to get
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 than 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

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MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

ACTIVITY 5.9(b)

Misconceptions

9.
There are more black balls in box
A than in box B. If you chooses 1
ball from each box you are more
likely to choose a black ball from
A than from B.
A

10.

I spin two coins. The

probability of getting heads and
1
tails is because I can get
3
Heads and Heads, Heads and
Tails or Heads and Tails.

11.

12.

John buys 2 raffle tickets. If he

chooses two tickets from
different places in the book he is
more likely to win than if he
chooses two consecutive tickets.

Each spinner has two sections

one black and one white. The
probability of getting black is
50% for each spinner.

13.

14.

13 is an unlucky number so you are

less likely to win a raffle with
ticket number 13 than with a
different number.

My Grandad smoked 20 cigarettes

a day for 60 years and lived to be
90, so smoking can't be bad for
you.

15.

16.

It is not worth buying a national

lottery card with numbers 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6, on it as this is less likely to
occur than other combinations.

I have thrown an unbiased dice 12

times and not yet got a six. The
probability of getting a 6 on my
1
next throw is more than .
6

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MEP: Demonstration Project

ACTIVITY 5.10

UNIT 5: Probability

Birthdays

First try this experiment. Find out the

birthdays of as many of your family
as possible. Do any of them have
birthdays on the same day of the
year?

Now try the same experiment with all the members of your class. We will see how
likely it is that two members of a group have the same birthday.
Consider each member of a group, one by one. The first person will have his/her
birthday on a particular day.
1.

What is the probability of the second person having a different birthday from
the first?

2.

What is the probability of the third person having a birthday different from
both the first and second person?

3.

What is the probability that at least two of the first three people have the same
birthday?

This solves the problem of a group of three people. As expected, it is not likely that
any 2 out of 3 people will have the same birthday.
4.

Repeat the problem above for 4 people. What is the probability that at least 2
of them have the same birthday?

5.

Using either a computer programme or a calculator, solve the problem for a

group of n people, where n = 10, 20, 30, etc.

6.

What is the probability that 2 members of your class have the same birthday?

Extension
How many people are needed in the group to be 95% sure that there will be at least
two with the same birthday?

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MEP: Demonstration Project

UNIT 5: Probability

ACTIVITY 5.11

Genetic fingerprinting

Genetic fingerprinting was developed by Professor Alec Jeffreys at the University of

Leicester in 1984. The technique is based on the fact that each of us has a unique
genetic make up, contained in the molecule DNA, which is inherited from our
natural parents, half from our mother and half from our father.
DNA can be extracted from cells to and body fluids and analysed to produce a
characteristic pattern of bands or genetic 'fingerprint. The sketch below shows how
our genetic fingerprinting can be used to identify a child's father.
Who is the father?

Alleged Father 2

Alleged Father 1

Child

Mother

Equally important has been the use of

genetic fingerprinting in rape cases, where
the semen of the attacker and the alleged
rapist can be compared.
It is usual to compare between 10 and 20
bands. Experimental evidence has shown
that in unrelated people the probability of
one band matching is one in four (0.25);
so for example, the probability of two
bands matching = (0.25)2 = 0.0625 , a 1 in
16 chance.

1.

Find the probability of 10 bands matching. Express your answer in the form
"1 in ? chance".

2.

Repeat the above, but using 0.5 as the probability of any single band matching.

You will have noticed that the answers to problem 1 and 2 change quite dramatically
if the underlying probability changes. In fact, the value of 0.25 has been the subject
of some speculation recently in a number of criminal trials.
3.

Copy and complete the table below. Comment on the values found and suggest
the number of bands which should be compared, to be confident of a match not
happening by chance, when the probability is 0.25.
Probability
(p)
0.2
0.25
0.5

5
1 in 3125
?
?

Number of bands compared

10
15
20
?
?
?

?
?
?

1 in 9.5 million million

?
?

Extension
If p = 0.25 and we wish the probability of a complete match not happening by
chance to be 1 in 50 million (approximately the population of Britain), how many
bands need to be compared?

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