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Why Obama's Visit To India Is Such A Big Deal: by Joshua Keating
Why Obama's Visit To India Is Such A Big Deal: by Joshua Keating
Get em while theyre hot! Kites printed with the portraits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi
and U.S. President Barack Obama, on sale in Hyderabad on Jan. 7, 2015.
Photo by Noah Seelam/AFP/Getty Images
What a dierence a year has made for the U.S. and India. In January 2014, U.S.
diplomats were being expelled from New Delhi amid widespread public outrage
over the treatment of an Indian diplomat in New York, marking the worst crisis in
relations between the two countries in years. Meanwhile, Narendra Modi, then-chief
minister of Gujarat and a candidate for prime minister, was still banned from entering
the United States on suspicion of complicity in atrocities.
JOSHUA KEATING
But this weekend, President Obama will head to India, becoming the rst U.S.
president ever to make two visits to the country while in oce and the rst American
ever invited to be chief guest at Indias annual Republic Day celebration. The
symbolically important visit follows a productive and cordial couple of months in the
often fraught U.S.-India relationship since Modis election in May.
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Its surprising that a relationship that had frayed under former Prime
Minister Manmohan Singha mild-mannered, Western-educated economisthas
been repaired under Modi, known, at least until a pre-election centrist rebranding, as
a hard-line Hindu nationalist. But close observers say Modis embrace of Obama was
inevitable, given his pledges to dramatically modernize and develop Indias economy.
If Modi was insulted, he brushed it o, inviting Obama to sit with him at the Republic
Day parade just a few months after their last meeting. The invitation of a U.S.
president breaks a kind of symbolic taboo, says Sadanand Dhume, a resident fellow
at the American Enterprise Institute. India, even though ocially nonaligned, has
tilted away from the U.S. for most of its independent history, even with the end of the
Cold War. Millions of people will watch this, and its sending a message.
Dhume says the speed with which Obama has reciprocated Modis overtures has
been striking. In addition to the concrete issues the two leaders may discuss, for
Obama the trip is an opportunity to demonstrate that while the administrations
planned pivot to Asia has been somewhat derailed by attention-sucking events in
the Middle East, it can still make progress on important relationships.
The visit will also help Modi distinguish himself from the Indian National Congress
party, who ruled India for most of its independent history, promoting a foreign policy
of nonalignment. Modis Bharatiya Janata Party isnt necessarily pro-American,
Dhume says, but it doesnt have that baggage. They dont have that much ideology
on foreign policy and dont feel the need to demonstrate that Indias not turning into a
U.S. vassal.
The Congress Party also isnt as reexively anti-American as it once was, but those
instincts havent gone away entirely, says Dhume, and in the last few months of the
Manmohan Singh government we started to see them creeping back a little.
Those instincts were on full display during the scandal surrounding Devyani
Khobragade, a deputy consul general at the Indian consulate in New York who was
arrested on visa fraud charges for paying her nanny far less than the legal wage stated
on her visa application. Khobrogades treatmentshe was arrested by the NYPD
while dropping o her daughter at school and strip-searched before being released on
bailwas a national scandal in India, and the Congress Party government, then
heading into elections, played up the nationalist furor to maximum eect, removing
security barriers from outside the U.S. Embassy and threatening to remove the
diplomatic immunity of American ocials.
One year ago today, that would have been the only thing anyone would talk about,
says Alyssa Ayres, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former
deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia, in a conference call with reporters.
It was a substantial rupture in the relationship for several months, and the normal
kinds of bureaucratic meetings that happen between the two countries werent taking
place. Thats no longer the case. Weve seen an uptick in conversation and diplomatic
dialogue.
Dhume says Modis political base is less receptive to appeals to anti-Americanism. In
many ways Modis constituency is the most naturally pro-U.S. constituency in India,
he says. These are a lot of young people living in cities. They tend not to view the U.S.
through an ideological lens.
Ganguly also notes that Modi is deeply beholden to the Indian business community,
and particularly some very large conglomerates who supported him in the election
and constitute a very power constituency in his party. If he cannot woo the worlds
most powerful economic partner, then he has a problem.
This, then, raises the question of whether the Obama visit will result in any concrete
announcements or is just an enormously important photo op. One area where real
movement is possible is climate change. Were unlikely to see anything as dramatic as
the U.S.-China emissions pact announced last yearIndia, which is still heavily reliant
on coal and considers itself well behind China in terms of economic development, has
been extremely reluctant to commit to capping its emissions. But Modi has
announced ambitious solar energy plans, and the two leaders agreed to cooperate
on promoting renewable energy during their White House meeting in September.
Theres also been speculation that the visit could include an announcement of U.S.
investment in Indias nuclear industry.
On trade, the U.S. and India already reached a breakthrough in November, and Modi
will be looking for the U.S. to make good on pledges to increase investment in the
country.
Defense issues will no doubt be central to the talks. India has ordered more than $10
billion in weapons from the U.S. over the past decade as it has sought to diversify its
supply away from its traditional military ally, Russia. Modi hasnt entirely cut Russia out
of the picture. Putin was in town last month, but the change in suppliers is likely to be
reected in the military hardware paraded before Modi and Obama in New Delhi next
week.
As a symbol of U.S.-India cooperation, the visit is also a signal to audiences in Moscow,
Beijing (India and China are locked a contentious and occasionally violent border
dispute), and of course Pakistan. Ganguly notes that the U.S. has been putting less
emphasis on relations with Pakistan as it has drawn down its presence in Afghanistan.
India has also been pushing to increase its economic and political presence in
Afghanistan, much to Pakistans chagrin.
The Pakistanis will be quite upset about this visit and will watch it very closely, says
Ganguly. The days when an American president felt compelled to also visit Pakistan
when he went to India are over. The Pakistanis have to come to terms with that, but
theyre not going to like it.
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