: :

1:
: . (2007)
: . & . (2011)
,
.
,
.
( , ,
, , ),
:
: ,
. , .
1991 2001, 2025 2340 ,
. ,
, .
: ,
, , , .
,
800 . ,
, 450 .
:
. 4
(-), (, )
90%.
:
200 , 40 (, ).
, 400 m2,
0.3.
- :
, (, ,
). ,
. 60 110 m3/d.
:
5 L/s. , , .

(
, ) ,
.

-1-

)
( ) 40 .
(2011),
2051.
, 1991 2001,
( 2001 2051),
.

,
:
t = 0 + a t
t = 0 (1 + b)t


= 32 /,

b = 0.015,
1.5% .

(2001) 2051,
0 = 2340 t = 50 ,
3915
4821 , .

5000
4500

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1991

2001

2011

2021

2031

2041

2051

( )
,
,
. ,
1991-2001 ,
. ,
3500 ,
.
,
q = 150 L/d, = 1.5
= 2.0. :
: Q = q = 150 3500 / 86400 = 6.1 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.5 6.1 = 9.1 L/s
: Q = Q = 2.0 9.1 = 18.2 L/s
: Va = Q Ta = 6.1 365 86400 / 1000 = 191 625 m3
)
,
. ,
200 ,
40 (, ), 160
.

-2-

 , 400 m2 (0.40 ),
160 / 0.40 = 400. ,
0.3,
0.3 400 = 120 m2, .
3.5 , 3.5 400
= 1400 .
,
15% ,
1200 .
q = 250
L/d, = 1.2 = 1.5.
:
: Q = q = 250 1200 / 86400 = 3.5 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.2 3.5 = 4.2 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.5 4.2 = 6.3 L/s
120
. :
Va = Q Ta = 3.5 120 86400 / 1000 = 36 000 m3
)

, 800 , .
4 (-), (, )
90%,
( )
0.90 800 = 720 .
50%, (0.90 800) / 2 + (0.50 800) / 2 = 560
. 720 / 560 1.3,
.

q = 200 L/d, = 1.3
= 1.5. :
: Q = q = 200 560 / 86400 = 1.3 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.3 1.3 = 1.7 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.5 2.1 = 2.5 L/s
120
, :
Va = Q Ta = 1.3 120 86400 / 1000 = 13 440 m3
)
, 450 ,
,
( 0.90 450 = 405
0.50 450 = 225 ),

-3-

, q = 300 L/d.
:
: Q = q = 300 315 / 86400 = 1.1 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.3 1.1 = 1.4 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.5 1.4 = 2.1 L/s
: Va = Q Ta = 1.1 120 86400 / 1000 = 11 340 m3
)

, 8 ( 250 ).
60 m3/d (
= 1). 8 ,
= 24 / 8 = 3.0.
, :
: Q = 60 000 / 86 000 = 0.7 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.0 0.7 = 0.7 L/s
: Q = Q = 3.0 0.7 = 2.1 L/s
: Va = Q Ta = 60 250 = 15 000 m3
)
(120 ), 110 m3/d
, = 1 = 1. :
: Q = 110 000 / 86 000 = 1.3 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.0 1.3 = 1.3 L/s
: Q = Q = 1.0 1.3 = 1.3 L/s
: Va = Q Ta = 110 120 = 13 200 m3

, 1.3 L/s
.
)
,
(
).
, ,
5.0 L/s, . ,
10.0 L/s.
)
, 10%,
.
:

-4-


(L/s)
9.1

(L/s)
18.2

(m3)
191 625

4.2

6.3

36 000

( )

1.7

2.5

13 440

( )

1.4

2.1

11 340

0.7

2.1

15 000

1.3

1.3

13 200

10.0

17.1

41.2

280 605

( 10%)
18.8
(*) .

45.3

308 666

( )

-5-