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Math 1040 Skittlestermproject
Math 1040 Skittlestermproject
Math 1040 Skittlestermproject
Math1040SkittlesTermProject
Part2:Sampling
TheStatCrunchrowsthatwererandomlyselectedwererows3,11and14.Inrow3therewere10red
Skittles,10orange,14yellow,14greenand8purpleSkittlesforatotalof56Skittlesinrow3.Inrow
11therewere10red,10orange,10yellow,19greenand11purpleSkittlesforatotalof60Skittlesin
row11.Inrow14therewere14red,17orange,8yellow,6greenand15purpleSkittlesforatotalof
60Skittlesinrow14.ThetotalnumberofSkittlesinthesampleis176(n=176).Therewereatotalof
34redskittles,37orangeskittles,32yellowskittles,39greenskittlesand34purpleskittles.
Irandomlyselectedtheserowsbyusingtherandomnumbergeneratorfunctioninexcel.Aftericopied
andpastedthespreadsheetinStatCrunchIthenwentbackintoexcelandopenedanewspreadsheet.I
clickedonthecellA1thenenteredthefunction=randbetween(1,27)anditthengeneratedanumber.I
thenputthecursoronthelowerrighthandcornerofthecellanddrugitdowntoA3anditthen
generatesarandomnumberincellsA1,A2andA3givingthe3randomnumbers.Thisiscalleda
simplerandomsamplebecauseeachrow(bagofSkittles/sample)hadthesamechanceofbeing
selected.
Somepossibleerrorsthatcouldhaveoccurredarecountingerrorsbystudents,alsotranscriptionerrors
couldhavealsooccurredwhileenteringthedataintothespreadsheet.Alsosomebodycouldeasily
makeupthedatainsteadofreallygoingoutandbuyingabagofskittlesandcountingthem.Thewrong
sizeofbagcouldhavebeenusedaswell.Ithinkthecollectionmethodisprettygood,bagsofskittles
wereboughtatalotofdifferentstoresaroundthevalleyandnotjustoutofthesamebox.Idontknow
thatthecollectionmethodcanreallybeimprovedonverymuch,Itseemslikeaprettygoodsampling
methodtome.
Math1040SkittlesTermProject
Part3:OrganizingandDisplayingCategoricalData
Thecandycoloriscategoricalbecausetheyarenamesofcolorsandnotnumbersrepresentingcounts
ormeasurements.
Numberof
red
candies
Numberof
orange
candies
Numberof Numberof
yellow
green
candies
candies
Numberof
purple
candies
Total
numberof
candies
BagofskittlesI
brought
14
17
15
60
TheSamplesof3bagsofSkittlesmygroupselected
Bag1:row#3
10
10
14
14
56
Bag2:row#11
10
10
10
19
11
60
Bag3:row#14
14
17
15
60
SampleTotals
34
37
32
39
34
176
326
347
332
297
313
1615
Thegroupofall
bagscollectedby
theentireclass
PieChartofthedatacollectedfromthebagofSkittlesthatIbought:
ParetoChartofthedatacollectedfromthebagofSkittlesthatIbought:
PieChartofthedatacollectedfrommygroups3bagsofSkittles:
ParetoChartofthedatacollectedfrommygroups3bagsofSkittles:
PieChartofthedatacollectedfromtheentireclassesbagsofSkittles:
ParetoChartofthedatacollectedfromtheentireclassesbagsofSkittles:
Theoveralldatacollectedbythewholeclassdoesnotagreeexactlywiththesmallersampledata
collectedbymygroup.HoweveritismuchclosercomparedtothesamplefromthebagthatIbought.
Inthedataoftheentireclassesdatacomparedtothedataofmygroup,alltherelativefrequencieswhen
comparingthesamecolorsarewithin3.77%ofeachother.Inthedataoftheentireclassesdata
comparedtothedatafromthebagofskittlesthatIbought,whencomparingthesamecolors,allbutthe
redcandiesrelativefrequenciesaregreaterthan5%apart.
EntireClassesRelative
Frequency
MygroupsRelative
Frequency
Red
20.19%
19.32%
Orange
21.49%
21.02%
Yellow
20.56%
18.18%
Green
18.39%
22.16%
Purple
19.38%
19.32%
EntireClassesRelative
Frequency
MyBagRelativeFrequency
Red
20.19%
23.33%
Orange
21.49%
28.33%
Yellow
20.56%
13.33%
Green
18.39%
10%
Purple
19.38%
25%
Summary statistics:
Column
Mean
Std. dev.
Min
Q1
Median
Q3
Max
IQR
Total
27
59.8
2.527
52
59
60
61
63
ThenumberofSkittlesisquantitativebecausethedataconsistsofnumbersrepresentingcounts.Based
onthetableandtheboxplotthedataappearstohaveanormaldistribution,butthehistogramappears
tobeskewedtotheleft.Ithinkitappearsthiswaybecauseoftheoutliersthatarentreallyshowninthe
boxplotorthetable.
LowerFence591.5(2)=56
UpperFence61+1.5(2)=64
Basedonthefencescomputedabove,thebagofSkittlesthatIboughtwouldnotbeanoutlierbecause
mybaghad60candiesinit.
SkittlesTermProject
Part5:ConfidenceIntervals
1.
Aconfidenceintervalgivesanestimatedrangeofvalueswhichislikelytoincludeanunknown
populationparameter,theestimatedrangebeingcalculatedfromagivensetofsampledata.If
independentsamplesaretakenrepeatedlyfromthesamepopulation,andaconfidenceinterval
calculatedforeachsample,thenacertainpercentage(confidencelevel)oftheintervalswillincludethe
unknownpopulationparameter.Confidenceintervalsareusuallycalculatedsothatthispercentageis
95%,butwecanproduce90%,99%,99.9%(orwhatever)confidenceintervalsfortheunknown
parameter.Thewidthoftheconfidenceintervalgivesussomeideaabouthowuncertainweareabout
theunknownparameter.Averywideintervalmayindicatethatmoredatashouldbecollectedbefore
anythingverydefinitecanbesaidabouttheparameter.
2.FirstIfoundthecriticalvalue Z /2 thatcorrespondedtoa99%ConfidenceLevel.Idivided.01/2=
.005thenisubtracted.005from1whichgaveme.995IthenfoundthethethecriticalvalueofZ /2
was=2.56.NextihadtofindthemarginoferrorEusingtheequation
E=Z /2pq/n (Phatandqhat).
E=2.56 (.2056)(.7844)/1615
E=0.0257445245
IthensubtractedEfrom0.2056togetthelowerlimitof0.180rounded
IthenaddedEto0.2056togettheupperlimitof0.231
(0.180,0.231)
Weare99%confidentthattheinterval(0.180,0.231)actuallydoescontainthetruevalueofthe
populationproportion.
3.Basedonmyintervalofthetrueproportionofyellowskittles,theproportionofyellowskittlesinthe
bagthatiboughtwasanunlikelyproportion.Iknowthisbecausetheproportionofyellowskittlesin
thebagthatiboughtwas13.33%or.1333whichdoesntfallbetween0.180and0.231.
4.Toconstructa95%confidenceintervalestimateforthetruemeannumberofskittlesperbagfrom
theclassdata,youfirsthavetofindthemarginoferrorbyusingtheequation
E=Z /2 O/n
FirstyouhavetofindZ /2 thatcorrespondstoa95%confidencelevel.TodothisIdid1.95whichis
0.05.Ithendividedthatby2whichresultsin0.025.Ithensubtracted0.025from1toget0.975.Ithen
usethatnumberandandfoundthecriticalvalueof1.96.Ithenusetheequationaboveandpluginmy
knownnumberstofindthemarginoferror.
E=1.96 2.527/27 =.9531898984
ThenIsubtracted0.9531898984fromthesamplemeanwhichwas59.8.
59.80.9531898984=58.8(rounded)togetthethelowerlimit.Ithenadded0.9531898984tothesample
mean.
59.8+0.9531898984=60.8(rounded)fortheupperlimit.
(58.8,60.8)
Weare95%confidentthattheintervalfrom58.8to60.8actuallydoescontainthetruevalueofthe
populationmean.
5.Basedontheintervalforthetruemeannumberofskittlesperbag,thetotalnumberofskittlesinthe
bagthatipurchased(60)isalikelyvaluebecauseitfallsbetween58.8and60.8.
6.Toconstructa98%confidenceintervalestimateforthestandarddeviationofthenumberofskittles
2
2
perbag.Tosolvethisweusetheequation (n 1)s2 / X r <O< (n 1)s2 / X L
Wecanthenpluginourknownnumbersintotheequation.thefindthedenominatorwefirsthaveto
take98%or.98from1whichgivesus.02.Thenwedivide0.02by2toget.01.Nextwesubtract0.01
from1toget0.99.Thenweneedtogetourdegreesoffreedomwhichisn1sointhiscaseitisdf=27
1=26
WecannowgototableA4ChiSquareDistributionandfindthedfof26intheleftcolumnand0.99
inthetoprowandfindwheretheyintersectwhichis12.198.wethenneedtofindagain26intheleft
columnand0.01onthetoprowandfindwheretheyintersectwhichis45.642
Nowthatwehavealltheinformationweneedwecannowsolvetheequations.
(1.907,3.689)
Weare98%confidentthattheintervalfrom1.907to3.689actuallydoescontainthetruevalueofthe
standarddeviation.
7.Basedontheintervalforthetruestandarddeviationofnumberofskittlesperbagitdoesappearthat
themanufacturingprocessthatputscandiesin2.17ouncebagsisconsistentbecausethesample
standarddeviationof2.527fallswithintherangeof1.907to3.689.
Math1040SkittlesTermProject
Part6:HypothesisTest
1)Thegeneralpurposeofhypothesistestingistochoosebetweentwocompetinghypothesesaboutthe
valueofapopulationparameter.Forexample,onehypothesismightclaimthatthewagesofmenand
womenareequal,whilethealternativemightclaimthatmenmakemorethanwomen.
2)Usingvaluesfromtheclassdatacollectedinpart3ofthetermprojectanda0.05significancelevel,
Itestedtheclaimthat20%ofallskittlesarered.
Mynullhypothesisis H 0 : p = 0.2 andmyalternativehypothesisis H 1 : p =/ 0.2
TodothisiusedthePvaluemethodusingmyTI84Plus.Togettheresultsitisimportantthatwe
enterthecorrectinformationinthecorrectfunctionofthecalculator.Forthisproblemyouwillpress
STAT,selectTESTS,andthenselect1PropZTest.Ithenenteredthefollowingintotherequiredfields
P 0 : 0.2 (theclaimedvalue)
x:326(numberofredskittles)
n:1615(samplesize)
Ithenselected:
prop=/ P 0
andthenselectedcalculateandgotthefollowingresults:
prop=/ .2
z=.19(rounded)
p=.8520(rounded)
= .2019(rounded)
n=1615
Becausethepvalueof.8520isgreaterthanthesignificancelevelof = 0.05 wefailtorejectthenull
hypothesis H 0 : p = 0.2
Becausewefailtoreject H 0 : p = 0.2 ,wefailtorejecttheclaimthat20%ofallskittlecandiesarered.
Andweconcludethatthereisnotsufficientsampleevidencetowarrentrejectionoftheclaimthat20%
ofallskittlescandiesarered.
3)UsingthevaluesfortheclasssatathatweIcomputedinpart4oftheprojectanda0.01significance
level,Itestedtheclaimthatthemeannumberofskittlescandiesinabagofskittlesismorethan55.
Mynullhypothesisis H 0 : = 55 andmyalternatehypothesisis H 1 : > 55
TosolvethisproblemagainIusedmyTI84PlusandIpressedtheSTATbutton,thenIselected
TESTSandchosethemenuitemZTestsince wasknown.Itheninputthefollowingintotherequired
fieldsafterselectingStatsfortheinput:
0 : 55
: 2.527
x :59.8
n:27
:> 0
andthenselectedcalculate.andmyresultswereasfollows:
> 55
z=9.87(rounded)
p=2.86130323(whichwouldtranslateto0000+)
x =59.8
n=27
Sincethepvalueislessthanthesignificancelevelof =0.01werejectthenullhypothesis.
Thereissufficientevidencetosupporttheclaimthatthemeannumberofcandiesinabagofskittlesis
morethan55.
4)Therequirementsfordoingthetwohypothesistestsare:
fornumber2:
Thesamplemustbeasimplerandomsample
Theconditionsforabinomialdistributionaresatisfied
Theconditionsnp 5 andnq 5 arebothsatisfied
Thesamplesmeteachoftheserequirementsfornumber2.
Therequirementsfornumber3:
Thesamplemustbeasimplerandomsample
Eitherorbothoftheseconditionsissatisfied:Thepopulationisnormallydistributedorn>30.
Therequirementswerealsomet.itwasasimplerandomsample,andalthoughnwasonly27the
populationwasapproximatelynormal.
Math1040SkittlesTermProjectPart7
ReflectionandEPortfolio
Themainpurposeandgoalofthisprojectwastotaketheconceptswehavestudiedthroughout
thesemester,whichincludedorganizingandanalyzingdata,drawingconclusionsusingconfidence
intervalsandhypothesistesting.Inthisprojecteachclassmemberwastopurchaseone2.17ouncebag
ofOriginalSkittlesandweusedthedatafromourindividualbag,smallgroupsandalsodatafromthe
entireclassforsomepartsoftheproject.
Inpart1oftheprojectwecollectedandcompileddatafromourindividualbagsthatwewould
beusingforalltheotherpartsoftheproject.Inthesecondpartoftheprojectweworkedinsmall
groupstoapplywhatwelearnedaboutsamplingtorandomlyselectthreebagsofSkittlesfromtheclass
datatoshowtheeffectsofsamplesize.Inpartthreeweorganizedanddisplayedcategoricaldatausing
piechartsandparetochartsinStatcrunchto.InpartfourweagainusedStatcrunchtocreateatablewith
thesamplesize,mean,standarddeviation,5numbersummaryandtheIRQ(Innerquartilerange).We
thenusedthedatafromthetablestocreatehistogramsandboxplotssothatwecouldvisualizethedata
tohelpbetterunderstandit.InPartfivewecalculatedconfidenceintervalsforthedata.
Aconfidence
intervalgivesanestimatedrangeofvalueswhichislikelytoincludeanunknownpopulationparameter,
theestimatedrangebeingcalculatedfromagivensetofsampledata.Andfinallyinpartsixwewedid
somehypothesistesting.
Thegeneralpurposeofhypothesistestingistochoosebetweentwocompeting
hypothesesaboutthevalueofapopulationparameter.
ThroughouttheprocessofthisprojectIhavelearnednumerouswaystoapplydifferentthe
conceptsIhavelearnedinmydailylife.Ilearnedtheimportanceofusingagoodsamplingtechnique,
oryoucouldgetresultsthatarenotaccurate.Oneofmyfavoritepartsofthisprojectwaslearninghow
touseStatcrunchtocreatetablesandgraphsanddifferentwaystodisplaydata.IthinkwiththisskillI
willbeabletousequiteabitthroughoutmycollegeandprofessionalcareer.AnotherveryusefulskillI
havelearnedwastotakethingsthatIhavelearnedandapplytheminmydailylife.Thisprojecthelped
metodevelopemyproblemsolvingskills.Forme,doingtheassignmentswasfairlyeasy,butthis
projectmademeusecriticalthinkingskillstoapplywhatIlearnedinthetextbookandassignments.
Thisproject,andclass,helpedchangethewayIthinkaboutrealworldmathapplications.Inalgebrait
washardformetofindwaystoapplythingsthatIwaslearningbecauseIdontusealotofthose
thingsinmydailylife.Theyareprobablyallaroundmebutformeitsnotrecognizable.However,with
statisticsIhavestartedtonoticethattheyareusedinalotmorethanIthoughtbecauseIlearnedhowto
usestatistics.Ialsoreallyenjoyedlearningaboutprobabilitiesandhowtofigurethemout.Itishardto
putwhatilearnedindoingthisprojectintowords,butIwouldhavetosayagainthatitwouldhaveto
beithelpedmetobeabletoactuallyapplythethingsIlearnedintheclasstodootherthingswithit.