The Human Condition -- Imminent Cold War?

Since the end of February 2014, there has been violence, unrest, and conflict in Ukraine
as a result of the demonstrations by pro-Russian (backed by Russia) and anti-government
groups, mainly in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine in the aftermath of the
Euromaidan movement, also called the Ukrainian Revolution. The Euromaidan
movement, literally meaning "Euro Square," took place in Kiev in November 2013 and
demanded closer European integration and the resignation of President Viktor
Yanukovych and his government. Protestors wished to change life in Ukraine by
combatting the widespread government corruption, violation of human rights, and
rejection of western thought.
Consequentially, there was a backlashing Anti-Maidan movement in December 2014.
Unrest gripped Ukraine when President Victor Yanukovych refused to sign an association
agreement with the European Union in November 2013. Unrest took hold since then.
On September 5, 2014, there was a ceasefire signed by Ukraine and the pro-Russian
separatists, called the Minsk Agreement, but military clashes never stopped. More than
5,500 people have been killed by fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia
rebels since April 2014, although a recent report estimates that the deaths could number
more than 50,000. Over five million people are living in areas of conflict, nearly one
million Ukrainians are internally displaced, many of whom are children, and 600,000
people have fled the country, 400,000 of which fled to Russia.
Some speculate that the separatists want to join with Russia because there is confusion as
to the identity of Ukraine. Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union until its independence
in 1991, so many, Russians and Ukrainians alike, believe that Ukraine is rightfully a part
of Russia. In addition, the previous corruption (particularly regarding voting and
elections) in Ukraine strengthen desires to join with Russia.
Not all of Ukraine favors and union with Russia. The separatists in eastern Ukraine want
to unite Ukraine with Russia, while western Ukraine wants to remain independent and
westernized. Only 12% of Ukrainians polled want a union with Russia. 68% of those
surveyed agreed that Ukraine should remain independent, while maintaining friendly
relations with Russia. This seems like a somewhat impossible feat; Crimea, Ukraine was
annexed by Russia in March 2014. This led to the launch of a military counter-offensive

against the rebels by the Ukrainian government. This is when tensions between the
Ukrainian and Russian governments began.
The conflict is not limited to within Ukraine. Western countries are accusing Russia of
arming the Ukrainian separatist rebels and sending troops into Ukraine, such claims
Russia denies. Western countries are very frustrated with Russia, its policies, and its
leaders, some calling have even called Putin the "20th century tyrant." (BBC) Currently,
the gravest international issue surrounding the issue is the discordance regarding how to
deal with the conflict. President Obama is under great pressure from the United States
government and military to send weapons into Ukraine. This would be a slap in the face
for Russia and could very potentially start a war, or at least, a cold war. Furthermore,
some argue that the introduction of heavy weaponry into Ukraine would only "exacerbate
the tragedy of Ukraine." (NPR)
To complicate matters more, Germany and France, under the leadership of German
Chancelor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, are strongly opposed
to arming Ukraine because of the heavy strain that action would place on relations with
Russia. They have, therefore, outlined a plan, called the Franco-German Peace Plan, for
Ukraine that includes autonomy for Ukraine's east, but no weapons for Ukraine. Their
main goal right now is for Obama to sign it, but because Obama is under pressure to
supply Ukraine with weapons, it is unclear what the result will be. This faction regarding
how to address Putin and Russia is also driving a wedge between the U.S. and Europe.
Diplomacy seems like an obvious and desirable solution to the American-Russian
tensions, but the two nations are refusing to cooperate diplomatically. The United States
and Russia are not engaging diplomatically because of the lack of trust between the two
nations. Diplomatic activity to resolve the Ukraine crisis has accelerated between
Germany/France and Russia, but not the U.S. The situation could perhaps be resolved if
the U.S. and Russia would meet and negotiate diplomatically.
This is an extremely controversial issue. The U.S. is between a rock and a hard place. If
they assist Ukraine by arming it, they risk severing all ties with Russia, and potentially
souring relations with Germany and France. If they cede to Russia by not arming
Ukraine, they let Russia win both its battle with Ukraine and its battle with the U.S.
Peaceful negotiations, diplomacy, and the implementation of a plan such as the FrancoGerman Peace Plan, are arguable the only viable solutions.

However, all of this international confusion seems to distract from the issue at hand.
People are suffering in Ukraine as a result of the conflict. All outside interests should be
discarded, focusing only on the well-being of the Ukrainians who deserve to live their
lives peacefully and securely. If diplomatic negotiations ever do occur between the
United States and Russia, the leaders should make a valiant effort to consider nothing but
a solution that will not just solve the conflict, but also repair the lives of those devastated.
The Ukrainian crisis is an example of the power of diplomacy and the importance of
shedding selfish interests and taking into consideration the lives of those
afflicted. Germany and France are setting a good example, and it can only be hoped that
President Obama will be able to join in on the peace agreement.
Sources: BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31242403), NPR
(http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2015/02/07/384514520/merkel-hopes-to-dissuadeobama-from-arming-ukraine), (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_proRussian_unrest_in_Ukraine), BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31392473),
Vox (http://www.vox.com/cards/ukraine-everything-you-need-to-know/what-doesukraines-east-west-divide-have-to-do-with-the-current-crisis).

www.cityam.com

Turmoil has engulfed much of Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict in 2013. This
picture was most likely taken during the riots earlier in 2014.

www.asianews.it

Ukrainian orthodox priests demonstrate peacefully during riots in Ukraine. Many priests
interjected during riots such as the one pictured above in order to prevent further
violence.