W1 - Introduction To Simulation

Week
01
Syllabus
TI141317 Simulasi Sistem Industri
Industrial System Simulation

Instructor:
Nurhadi Siswanto, PhD
Stefanus Eko Wiratno, MT

Effi Latiffianti, M.Sc.
Diesta Iva Maftuhah, MT
References:
Kelton, David W, Randall P Sadoswski, and David T Sturrock,
Simulation with Arena, Mc Graw Hill.
Harrel, Ghosh,
McGraw Hill.
Bowden
(2004),
Simulation
using
Promodel,
Birta, Louis G, Arbez (2007), Modelling and Simulation, Springer Verlag

London.
Seldon, M Ross (2006), Simulation, Elsevier.
Lab. KOI
Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS
Course Description
Simulation is defined as a technique to imitate process/operation
by using computer from a complex system which is difficult to
model (cannot be modelled) as mathematical formulation.
Simulation model is designed to be used for studying system by

conducting experiments to achieve the desired
objectives/performance measurements.
This course deals on how to design the right simulation model. So
that when the students have finished studied, they are able to
develop valid simulation models and conduct experiments by using
these models.
The learning activities consist of lecturing which discusses
simulation concept and simulation modelling techniques as well as
assigning a real case study which will be presented at the end of
the period.
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Learning Outcome
Upon completion of the subject, students will be
able to develop valid simulation models and
conduct experiments by using these models.
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Grading System
Grading consists of:
Final Project & Assignment (15%)
Quiz 1 (15%)
Quiz 2 (15%)
Midterm Exam (25%)
Final Exam (30%)
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Final Project
Deadline is strictly followed. If it is overdue,
you do not get grade.
Choose a real case to simulate by using

software ARENA 14.
You are assigned to make a group consists of 4
people (max.)
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Course Schedule
Week
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Topic
Introduction to Simulation
System Dynamics
System Dynamics Case Study

Simulation Basic
Discrete Event Simulation
Software Tutorial: ARENA
Model Building
Midterm Exam
Midterm Exam
Course Schedule
Week
Lab. KOI
Topic
Data Collection & Input Analysis
10
Output Analysis
11
Comparing System and Scenarios
12
Presentation Final Project (Progress Report)
13
Advanced module in ARENA
14
Presentation Final Project
15
Final Exam
16
Final Exam
Week
01
Introduction
to Simulation
TI141317 Simulasi Sistem Industri
What is Simulation?
The Oxford American Dictionary (1980) defines
Simulation as a way to reproduce the conditions of
a situation, as by means a model, for study or
testing or training, etc.
We are interested in reproducing the operational
behavior of dynamic systems
The model that we will be using is a computer model
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What is Simulation?
Simulation is the imitation of a dynamic system using
a computer model in order to evaluate and improve
system performance (Schriber, 1987)
In practice, simulation is usually performed using
commercial simulation software e.g. Arena, Awesim,
ProModel, AutoMod,, etc.
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Simulation Examples?
What Are We Interested In?

Reproducing the operational
behaviour of dynamic system
TOOL Computer
Its usually performed using commercial simulation software
such as: Arena, Awesim, Promodel, etc
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Why is simulation used?
Is there any other way but simulation?
Playing with the system

traditional trial-and-error techniques
No longer adequate
And Not always work
Simulation
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The nature of operations system

Variability
Variations are predictable or unpredictable
Interconnectedness
Components of the system do not work in isolation, but affect
one another
Complexity
Complexity = variability + interconnectedness
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Simulation provides a way to validate whether or

not the best decisions are being made.
Simulation avoids the expensive, time consuming,

and disruptive nature of traditional trial-and-error
techniques.
The power of simulation: it provides a method of

analysis that is not only formal and predictive, but
is capable of accurately predicting the performance
of even the most complex dynamic systems.
Management of a system in action based on

prediction [Deming, 1989]
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Why is simulation used ?

The characteristics of simulation that make it
such a powerful planning and decision making
tool:
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Captures system interdependencies

Accounts for variability in the system
Is versatile enough to model any system
Show behavior over time
Is less costly, time consuming, and disruptive than
experimenting on the actual system
Characteristics of Simulation
Provides information on multiple performance
measures
Is visually appealing and engages peoples interest
Provides results that are easy to understand and
communicate
Runs in compressed, real, or even delayed time
Forces attention to detail in a design
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Doing Simulation
Simulation is essentially an experimentation tool in
which a computer model of a new or existing system
is created for the purpose of conducting experiment
Doing simulation: the process of designing a model

of a real system and conducting experiment with this
model (Shannon, 1998).
Conducting experiments on a model reduces the time,
cost, and disruption of experimenting on the actual
system.
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Simulation is a virtual prototyping tool for

demonstrating proof of concept.
Doing Simulation
Simulation provides a virtual method for doing system
experimentation
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Procedure for Doing Simulation

1. Formulating a hypothesis
2. Setting up an experiment
3. Testing the hypothesis

through experiment
4. Drawing conclusions about
the validity of the
hypothesis
Start
Formulate a hypothesis
Develop a
Simulation model
Run simulation experiment
Hypothesis
correct?
Yes
End
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No
Use of Simulation
Initial models were programmed in FORTRAN
often consisted of thousands of lines of code
Took a year or more to build and debug

Ran in batch mode on expensive mainframe
computers
Used a commercial software since 1960

Gained popularity as a decision-making tool in
manufacturing and service industries in the
last two decades
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Use of Simulation
Popularity of computer simulation can be attributed to
the following:
Increased awareness and understanding of simulation
technology
Increased availability, capability, and ease of use of
simulation software
Increased computer memory and processing speeds,
especially of PCs
Declining computer hardware and software costs
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Use of Simulation
Simulation is no longer considered a method of
last resort, nor is it a technique reserved only
for simulation experts (easy-to-use simulation
software).
The use of simulation in designing and improving
business processes of every kind will likely to
grow
An increasing use of simulation is in the area of
communication and visualization
Computer based training
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Use of Simulation
Typical Applications:
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Capacity planning
Cycle time reduction
Staff and resource planning
Bottleneck analysis
Quality improvement
Cost reduction
Productivity improvement
Layout analysis
Investment analysis
Etc.
When Simulation is Appropriate

Not all system problems could be solved with the
aid of simulation
It is important to select the right tool for the task
Can be used to study simple models but should
not use it if an analytical solution is available
Real power of simulation is in studying complex
models
Simulation can tolerate complex models since we
dont even aspire to an analytical solution
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When Simulation is Appropriate

Simulation is appropriate if the following
criteria hold true:
An operational (logical or quantitative) decision
is being made
The process being analyzed is well defined and
repetitive
The activities and events are interdependent and
variable
The cost impact of the decision is greater the
cost of doing the simulation
The cost to experiment on the actual system is
greater than the cost of simulation
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Qualification for Doing Simulation

Some training is required to use simulation
But it does not mean that only statisticians and
operations research specialists can learn how to
use it
Decision support tools are always more effective
when they involve the decision makers
To make simulation more accessible to nonsimulation experts, modelers should be aware of
their own inability in dealing with the statistical
issues associated with simulation.
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Qualification for Doing Simulation

To gain the greatest benefits from simulation, a
certain knowledge and skill in the following areas
is useful:
Project management
Communication
System engineering
Statistical analysis and design of experiments
Modeling principles and concepts

Basic programming and computer skills
Training on one or more simulation products
Familiarity with the system being investigated
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Economic Justification of Simulation

Cost is always important issues when considering the
use of any software tool and simulation is no exception.
Simulation should not be used if the cost exceeds the
expected benefits.
This means that both the costs and the benefits should
be carefully assessed.
The use of simulation is often prematurely dismissed
due to the failure to recognize the potential benefits
and savings it can produce.
Savings from simulation are realized by identifying and
eliminating problems and inefficiencies.
Cost is reduced by eliminating overdesign and removing
excessive safety factors.
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One of the difficulties in developing an economic
justification for simulation is the fact that it is usually
not known in advance how much savings will be
realized.
One way to assess in advance the economic benefit of
simulation is to assess the risk of making poor design
and operational decisions.
The real savings from a simulation come from allowing
to make mistake and work out design errors on the
model rather than on the actual system.
Simulation helps avoid many of the downstream costs
associated with poor decision that are made up front.
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Simulation should not be used if the cost exceeds the
expected benefits.
Concept
Design
Installation
Cost
System stage
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Operation
System costs
Comparison of cumulative system costs

with and without simulation
Cost without
simulation
Cost with
simulation
Design
phase
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Implementation
phase
Operation
phase
Advantages of Simulation
Flexibility to model things as they are (even if messy

and complicated)
Allows uncertainty, nonstationarity in modeling
Advances in computing/cost ratios
Advances in simulation software
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Disadvantages of Simulation
Dont get exact answers, only approximations,
estimates
Get random output (RIRO) from stochastic

simulations
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When Simulations are Used ?

Uses of simulation have evolved with hardware,
software
The early years (1950s-1960s)
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Very expensive, specialized tool to use
Required big computers, special training
Mostly in FORTRAN (or even Assembler)
Processing cost as high as $1000/hour for a sub-286

level machine

The formative years (1970s-early 1980s)
Computers got faster, cheaper
Value of simulation more widely recognized

Simulation software improved, but they were still
languages to be learned, typed, batch processed
Often used to clean up disasters in auto,
aerospace industries
Car plant; heavy demand for certain model
Line underperforming
Simulated, problem identified

But demand had dried up simulation was too late
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The recent past (late 1980s-1990s)
Microcomputer power
Software expanded into GUIs, animation

Wider acceptance across more areas
Traditional manufacturing applications
Services
Health care
Business processes
Still mostly in large firms

Often a simulation is part of the specs
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The present
Proliferating into smaller firms
Becoming a standard tool

Being used earlier in design phase
Real-time control
The future
Exploiting interoperability of operating systems
Specialized templates for industries, firms
Automated statistical design, analysis
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Using Computers to Simulate

General-purpose languages (FORTRAN)
Tedious, low-level, error-prone
But, almost complete flexibility
Support packages
Subroutines for list processing, bookkeeping, time
advance
Widely distributed, widely modified
Spreadsheets
Usually static models
Financial scenarios, distribution sampling, SQC
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Using Computers to Simulate

Simulation languages
GPSS, SIMSCRIPT, SLAM, SIMAN
Popular, still in use

Learning curve for features, effective use, syntax
High-level simulators
Very easy, graphical interface
Domain-restricted (manufacturing, communications)
Limited flexibility model validity?
Lab. KOI

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Week

Industrial System Simulation

Stefanus Eko Wiratno, MT

Birta, Louis G, Arbez (2007), Modelling and Simulation, Springer Verlag

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Simulation model is designed to be used for studying system by

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Choose a real case to simulate by using

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

System Dynamics Case Study

Discrete Event Simulation

Software Tutorial: ARENA

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Data Collection & Input Analysis

Comparing System and Scenarios

Presentation Final Project (Progress Report)

Advanced module in ARENA

Presentation Final Project

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

The model that we will be using is a computer model

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

What Are We Interested In?

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Why is simulation used?

Is there any other way but simulation?

Playing with the system

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Why is simulation used?

The nature of operations system

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Why is simulation used?

Simulation provides a way to validate whether or

Simulation avoids the expensive, time consuming,

The power of simulation: it provides a method of

Management of a system in action based on

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Why is simulation used ?

Captures system interdependencies

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Doing simulation: the process of designing a model

Simulation is a virtual prototyping tool for

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Procedure for Doing Simulation

3. Testing the hypothesis

Run simulation experiment

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Took a year or more to build and debug

Used a commercial software since 1960

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Computer based training

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS

Jurusan Teknik Industri - ITS