PY ANDREW % ‘SMALL FTERrepeatedeancella- tions, delays and false ru- _mouts, the fact that Chi- neve President XiJinping finally madeitto Islamabad thisweekwas arelief for the Pakistani govern- ment. Asarule, the China-Pakistan relationshiprarelyhingesonmajor bilateral visits, but each time Xi's tripwas pushed back, itseemedto reflect another hitch that might jeopardise China's large-scale in- ‘estment plans. Even now, theres understandable scepticism about whether the ambitions for a $46bil lion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will actually come off. Se~ ccurityrisks logistical challenges and political controversies abound for whatwouldbe the largest over seas development-focusedinvest- menteffortthat China has everat- tempted. Butbankingonanother failure wouldbe a mistake. This time, Beijingintends to press ahead with the initiatives despite Pak- istan’sproblems, andeven partly because of them. China-Pakistaneconomicties havelongbeen the weakestlegof theirrelationship. Totalinvestment figuresremainin the single digits despite farlarger headline an- ‘nouncements, while bilateral trade is modest in comparison with Chi- nese trading partners of similar size, Overland commerce down the Karakoram Highwaywasrunning atbarelyafew hundred million dol- larsevenbefore alandslide in 2010 leftthe roadblockedbyanenor- mouslake. Itisyet toreopen, Previ- ousplansfora“transportanden- cergycorridor” connecting Xinjiang to Gwadar goback overa decade, but the port hasstillnot become fully functional. Chinahas pulled Two birds, one $46 billion stone China, Pakistan have done better on security than economics. Can it be different? outofother majorinvestments due) direct securtyrationale,too. With tosecurityconcernsandhas,at | the United Stateswithdrawing times.eventhreatenedtowithdraw | from Afghanistan, anda worsening allits workers from Pakistan. There | terrorist hreatin Xinjiang, China's arecertainlymanygoodreasonsto | anxicties about militancyinits anticipate that the inflatedexpecta- | western peripheryhave grown. tions gencratedbyXisvisitwillnot | Rightly ornot, Beijingbelieves that belivedupto, ‘economicdevelopment planswill Yetthecontextforthe China- |e part ofthe long-termsolutionto Pakistan EconomicCorridoris | stabilisingits neighbourhood, very different from pastefforts Pakistan ies atthe heart of Where previous corridors” were | manyof these concerns. Yet, where largelypushedonanambivalent | afewyearsago, terrorist threats Beijingbylslamabad, thisventure | andbroader security worries might liesatthe heart ofXi’ssignature ini- | have derailed China’sinvestments, tiveforaSilkRoadEconomic | nowtheyare part of the motivation Beltand Maritime Silk Road,con- | for the majoreconomiccommitm- nectingChinabylandandseato | entsthat tis making. Beijingwants Central Asia, South Asia,itsmar- | acapable,stable Pakistan toact as ketsin Europe anditsresourcesup- | itspartncrin the regionfor anas- pliers in the Middle East and sortment ofstrategic purposes and Arica. Describedasa“flagship” | iswillingtodoitsbittohelpshore The history of economic relations between the two sides might suggest that disappointment is to be expected. project that willbridge the landand | upthe country’seconomy. The in- ‘maritime routes,the infrastructure vestmentsare alsoamajorincen- plansin Pakistan willbe oneofits tive for Pakistan tocurbsome ofits frontline ventures. adventuristinstinets. When Pak- ‘Thelogicforthe“One Road, isan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (One Belt” strategyispartlyeco- __ publiclynotedthathe had “toldthe nomic, Duringaperiodwhen ‘Chinese president that Pakistan de- China’sgrowth modelischanging, sires peacefulneighbourhoodto itneedstooutsoureeitsexcessin-__ focuson pursuinggrowth’’ twas ddustrialcapacityandfindnewdriv- | reassurance that Chinahadbeen cersofgrowth initsrelativelyunder- seeking. serious deteriorationin developedinterior provinces. The __ Afghanistan’ssituation, participa initiativeisalsomotivatedby tion in aconflct-by-proxy with Iran China’sconcerns about the de- in Yemen oraspike in India-Pakis- pendence ofits trade onspecifiesea | tantensions wouldall pose threats lines ofcommunication andchoke-_ to Beijing’swiderregional agenda, pointssuch as the Malacca Strait, ‘The twosidesarenotwagering Diversificdmaritimeroutes,new | everything on the most difficult accesspointstothe Indian Ocean partsofthe economiccorridor any- andviablelandcorridorsreduce | way. While much attention natu- theserisks. Thereisanevenmore | rallyfallsonthe more grandiose ambitions forrailways, pipelines, andlines being drawn on mapsbe- tween Kashgar and Gwadar, most ofthe projectsenvisaged donot hinge onsecurityin Balochistan or tunnels through mountains. Nucl- cear power plants, hydropower proj- cts, roadupgrades, motorways, andothersin the longlist of MoUs signed during Xi'svisitstilladdup toalarge and ealisable package of investments. Recent yearshave beenspentfiguring outwhich proj- tects China can confidentlyexpect tobe protected by Pakistanisecu- rityforces and which willhinge ona broaderimprovementin Pakistan's internalsituation. None of thisistosuggest that doubts aren’twarranted, Manyin Pakistanare concerned about the government’scapacity toexecute the plans,cvenifit deservescredit for getting the initiative to this stage. A number ofthe investments willtake alongtimetocome to fruition —ifthey happen tall. Un- like the close security relationship between China and Pakistan, the history ofeconomicrelations| tween the twosidesmightsuggest that disappointmentistobeex- pected. But thereisalso another Tesson tobe drawn fromit, From civil nuclear plants tothe Karako- ram Highway, when aserious enough strategicrationale has un- derpinned Sino-Pakistanieco- nomicinitiatives,even the most po- litcally and logistically difficult of themhassucceededin the end, Thewriterisa transatlantic fellow with the Asia programme ofthe German Marshall Fund ofthe United States edipgeerpressindacom