2016 Campaign Memorandum

To: Presidential Candidate Smith, Smith Campaign

From: Xuefeng Wang
Campaign Consultant
Date: 4/16/2015
Subject: 2012 Campaign Analysis & Recommendations for 2016 Campaign
Creating an effective campaign that will capture the minds and hearts of a large amount
of groups of voters is a difficult task. The presidential candidate needs to win states their party
regularly wins in elections and must also win some battleground states that have close
competitions for the candidates vying for the presidency of America. Not every state is
California or Texas where a candidate can easily win the election just by belonging to the
Republican or Democratic Party. States like North Carolina and Florid have different population
demographics. One must address each state differently with a campaign strategy specific to the
concerns of the population. After analyzing the 2012 campaigns of President Barack Obama and
challenger Mitt Romney, I have outlined a few recommendations for your campaign. My final
recommendations for your campaign strategy are below and wish you all luck with your
campaign.
2012 Election Media Analysis
Presidents Obamas 2012 campaign ad titled Firms attacks Mitt Romneys reputation of
being a business leader. President Obama wants to highlight how Mitt Romney may be a
business leader but one that does massive damage to American workers. The first image that
appears in the ad is President Barack Obama in a nice suit walking with his head down and raises
it up and glances to his right. At the same time his voice over says, Im Barack Obama and I
approve this message (Obama 2012). The video of Mitt Romney appears. The still shot shows
that the video is taken in The Villages, Florida on January 30, 2012. The video shows Mitt
Romney at a campaign rally surrounded by his supporters singing, America the beautiful. The
commercial than shows a message that states, In business, Mitt Romneys firms shipped jobs to
Mexico (Obama 2012). In the background of this first message is a factory and Mitt Romney is
still singing America the beautiful. The video then transitions to a second message that states,
In business Mitt Romneys firms shipped jobs to Mexico. And China. In the background of the
second message is an abandoned factory and Mitt Romney is still singing. A third message
appears and reads, As Governor, Romney outsourced jobs to India (Obama 2012). Unlike the
previous two messages, this message takes place within an office, specifically what looks like a
meeting room. The recording of Mitt Romney singing is still playing.
The ad transitions from the office to a scenic video of a river on a cloudy day. To the left
of the ad is a Switzerland flag blowing in the wind. Also in the center of the ad is a message
stating, He had millions in a Swiss bank account and Mitt Romney is still singing (Obama
2012). The video then transitions from the scenic Switzerland landscape and moves to a scenic
beach location with two palm trees and the ocean in the background. The center of the ad says,

tax havens like Bermuda . . . and still has the recording of Mitt Romney singing in the
background (Obama 2012). The ad then transitions from the palm/ocean background into a beach
setting with a message that states And the Cayman Islands. The video transitions to a black
background with a center message that says, Mitt Romneys Not the Solution. Hes the
problem. The producers of the ad want the viewer to feel that Mitt Romney only serves himself
and the upper echelon of American civilization. For example, the ad negatively attacks Mitt
Romneys past of shipping jobs overseas. It also shows that Mitt Romney keeps his money
overseas in Switzerland and avoids taxes in Bermuda and other smaller countries. By showing
that Mitt Romney keeps moneys overseas it is also trying to send the message that Mitt Romney
is contradictory of his love for the United States. Throughout the video, Mitt Romney is singing
about the United States, but yet the messages in the ad claim that he outsources jobs to Mexico,
China and India and also keeps his money away in countries that provide tax havens (Obama
2012). The ad is a good negative, attacking ad because one thing Americans do not want is the
loss of jobs. The ad clearly shows that Mitt Romney is willing to outsource jobs so this might
compel Americans that favor economic growth to vote against mitt Romney and this outsourcing
tendencies.
The Mitt Romney ad titled, Give Me a Break. The ad has slow, soft music in the
background and a voice begins to narrate. The ad says that as the economy begins to get worse,
Barack Obama calls on Bill Clinton for back up. The ad then shifts to an Obama ad of Bill
Clinton speaking about President Barack Obama being a good candidate. The voiceover in the ad
than states that Bill Clinton is lying because in the 2008 primary election Bill Clinton was
actually attacking Barack Obama and his policies (Romney 2012). The video then cuts off and
goes a video of a crowd of people walking and a quote is found in the middle that states, 23
Million Americans struggling for work and the middle class falling further behind (Romney
2012). The ad then shifts back to a video of Bill Clinton saying, give me a break and the video
transitions of a logo of Romney/Ryan and Mitt Romney is heard in the background saying he
approves this message. I think the producers of the ad is clearly attacking President Barack
Obamas economy and its current state. It is also sending the message that the only reason Bill
Clinton is supporting Obama for reelection is because he is being a good soldier of the party
(Romney 2012). I do not think the ad is effective because President Obama inherited a really bad
economy from President Bush. I think it was always going to take a long time to fix the economy
and it is still recovering today. The thing about people is that they always want a quick fix to
problems but sometimes recovery takes a long time. The second premise about the ad that shows
Bill Clinton just being a good soldier is what being a part of a political party is about. A big
reason people select a political party is that they will be able to find people that share the same
beliefs and also to have people there in support during elections. It is true that Bill Clinton is just
being a good soldier but that is a function of being in a political party.
Overall, Mitt Romneys ad is not effective in bringing out the same emotion and anger
from the voter compared to Obamas. Obamas production was smart to point out Romneys
hypocrisy with his words and the facts behind his bank accounts. Romney failed to communicate
a strong emotional and personal message. Many people like Bill Clinton and his economic
policies were good ones that left the country in a good shape. Since former President Bill Clinton
is a credible individual, who had a good presidential run, many voters would agree with him and
he may be able to swing the voters towards Obama. If a person trusts President Clinton, many
would not vote for Romney because of this add. In contrast, many would vote against Romney

because of the deep personal values they have. Obamas add makes one feel as if Romney has
betrayed them and the country in the name of profits. Those that lost their jobs in manufacturing
would be inclined to blame a business person like Romney for their greed and not President
Obama. I highly recommend if ads are developed for Candidate Smith that they should try to get
the voter to make a vote with their heart and mind, and not just with their ears. The more people
can become emotionally invested into a candidate, the better.
2012 North Carolina Demographics
North Carolina is a state that is mostly populated by whites with a majority of 64.4%,
followed by blacks who make up 22%. Hispanics make up another 8.9%, while Asians contribute
2.6% of the major race populations within North Carolina borders (US Census 2015). In terms in
Gender, the largest voting bloc for both males and females fall in the age range of 35 through 69.
Males make up 21.6% of this age range while females make up 22.8% (US Census 2015). The
median income of North Carolina is $46,334 with a poverty rate of 17.5% (US Census 2015). If
a candidate would like to win the election in North Carolina along with its 15 electoral votes, it
would need to carry most of the white vote, win about 30% of the Hispanic vote and win some
percentage points from black and Asian voters.
In his presidential bid, Mitt Romney won 54% of the male vote, won 68% of the white
vote. He also captured 32% of the Hispanic vote. In terms of age groups, Romney won 53% of
the voting ages of 45 to 64 and 64% of the age group of 65 and up. He was able to get 52% of
the voters who had no college education and 54% of the voters who did have some college in
their educational background (CNN General Election 2012). 27.3% of North Carolina voters
have a bachelors degree (US Census 2015). Overall Mitt Romney won the state of North
Carolina with 50.6% of the vote compared to President Obamas of 48.4% (CNN General
Election 2012). Though Romney did win lose some voting blocs, he was able to win enough of
the percentage of different voting areas in order to win the state by a slight narrow margin.
Romney was able to win 49% of the female vote along with the male vote (CNN General
Election 2012). This fact allowed him to gain enough votes to give him the victory over Obama
in North Carolina. Romneys victory was mostly due to the ability to attract voters from mostly
the white community, which had a larger population presence than any of the other races. If
Candidate Smith wants to win this state, they must do so by developing a strong strategy to
connect with white voters who are in the age range of 30 to 69.
2012 Florida Demographics
Florida has a diverse population in a place where tourism is a stronghold of the economy
there. With 29 electoral votes, tapping into this diversity is crucial for winning the votes of the
population which would give a candidate a substantial amount of electoral votes. 56.4% of the
population in Florida is made up of whites, followed by 16.7% blacks, Hispanics 23.6% and
Asians 2.7% (US Census 2015). Florida has a median income of $46, 946 and a poverty level of
16.3%. The voting block of ages 35 through 69 is 21.8% of the voters in Florida and for females
23.3% (US Census 2015). These age groups have the majority of the voting in Florida. Florida
proved to be a difficult state to win for both Obama and Romney. However, Obama was able to
narrowly escape with the 29 electoral votes as he won 50% of the vote compared to Romneys
49.1% (CNN General Election 2012).

President Obamas successful bid was the result of a strong effort to diversity his voters
and his ability to win over a large amount of black and Hispanic voters. Obama was able to carry
95% of the black vote, 60% of the Hispanic vote. He also won 53% of the female vote while
receiving 39% of the white vote (CNN General Election 2012). Though the white vote
percentage is low for Obama, he was able to make up that percentage with the black and
Hispanic vote. In Florida every vote counted and he was bel to win over a large amount of the
younger generation with 66% of the vote for voters aged between 18 through 29 (CNN General
Election 2012). Obamas ability to diversify the age groups, gender and race led to his narrow
victory. Though one would not want to potentially have the same results as President Obama, his
strategy of diversifying would not be a bad path to follow as it led to his victory in Florida.
Florida is a difficult state to win but with the right diverse strategy, it can be won narrowly or
largely depending on the specifics of the campaign.
Social Media Effectiveness Summary
Presidential candidates have to address certain issues for a new generation or changing
culture that years before they did not have to. How they chose to get their message across is also
important. In the article 8 Big Social Media Takeaways From the 2012 Election Campaign,
Alex Kantrowitz breaks down his eight takeaways from the last 2012 presidential election. He
first speaks about how social media has become the go to instant description and reaction for the
public of that for presidential candidate. He notes how useful and integrated social media has
become for a campaign. Campaigns can generate hashtags, which are meant as one word
messages to the people voting (Kantrowitz 2012). These one word messages can then generate
hundreds of thousands of views to certain video topics and messages for the candidates.
Secondly, Kantrowitz observed the fast paced outbreaks that the internet can have with certain
topics and missteps by the presidential candidates (Kantrowitz 2012). A misstep can cause a
wildfire on the internet and by the end of the day millions of people may view the mistake and
have formulated their own opinion on the mistake.
Though social media is an important and sometimes effective way to connect with the
younger generation, Kantrowitz says his experience as a campaign manager has shown that
knocking on doors is more effective than social media, however, that did not stop both President
Obama and Mitt Romney from pouring large money into social media platforms through large
spending. According to PBS Obama spent 10 times more than Romney on social media (PBS
Newshour 2012). For now, social media has had an arguably minor influence in the 2012
election, but it is vital to understand it will have a much larger impact in the 2016 election. The
2016 election cycle will have younger voters coming into the election process for the first time.
Compared to other generations, the younger voters are more technology savvy and are more
likely to use social media as a way to help them make a decision on who to vote for. Taking
advantage and following the steps of a proven winner like President Barack Obama on this social
media platform would help provide a winning strategy to Candidate Smith. Bringing in these
new voters helped Obama win Florida and it will definitely help Candidate Smith as well.

Bibliography

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