TheYear

2100
overpopulation,scarcity,catastrophe,war

Introduction
WelcometoTheYear2100:aRAIDERMUNoriginalcrisis.Allthosewhochoosetoembarkonthis
highpacedadventurearecommendedfortheirbravery.Inthissimulation,delegateswillrepresentthe
speakersof
ConfederacyofContinents
(formerlyknownastheUnitedNations).Thecommitteethatyou
willbenegotiatinginisentitled:
TheSecurityandCatastropheCouncil
.Thedelegatesforthiscouncil
rangefromrepresentativesofthethreecontinentalconglomerations,tocorporateCEOscontrollingsome
oftheworldsmostsoughtafterresources,toNGOheadsthatholdthepeacebetweentherespective
bodies.
Delegateswillbedebatingintypicalparliamentaryprocedureforcrises,includingdirectives,
motions,points,etc.Ifyouareunfamiliarwithtypicalcrisisprocedure,pleaseseeourBeginnersGuideto
CrisisCommittees.Thereare4mainissuestobeaddressedasthecouncil,andthoughwedonotexpect
youtocoveralloftheminthedaylongsimulation,weexpectyoutobepreparedtodebateanyofthefour
subtopics,astheymayoverlap.Theinitialgoalofthecouncilwillbetochoosewhichtopicitwishesto
debatefirst,andthecrisiselementswillfloodinfromthere.

Whatdoes2100looklike?

It'sanideathatmostofuswouldrathernotfacethatwithinthenextcentury,lifeasweknowit
couldcometoanend.Ourcivilizationcouldcrumble,leavingonlytracesofmodernhumanexistence
behind.Sincethe2000s,alothaschanged.Smallbusinessesandsmallcountriesareathingofthepast,
foodandwaterisheavilyrationedinmostpartsoftheworld,andtorrentialstormsandenvironmental
crisesarecommonplace.
Itseemsoutlandish,extremeevenimpossible.Butaccordingtocuttingedgescientificresearch,it
isaveryrealpossibility.Andunlesswemakedrasticchangesnow,itcouldverywellhappen.Expertshave
astarkwarning:thatunlesswechangecourse,the"perfectstorm"of
population

growth
,
dwindling
resources
and
climatechange
hasthepotentialtoconvergeinthenextcenturywithcatastrophicresults.
Thenationsthatmillennialswereaccustomedtoarenolonger.AustraliaandthePacificIslandsare
uninhabitedorcompletelysubmergedintheIndianandPacificOceans.AllofAfricaandtheMiddleEastis
subsumedunderoneIslamicCaliphatecalledTheUmmayyad:runbyagoldandoilpoweredeconomy.
TheUmmayyadCaliphateiseconomicallythestrongestofthethreecontinents,buthasthemost

desperateneedforvitalresourcessuchasvegetables,fruits,andwater.OverpopulationandCivilWarare
notproblemsfortheUmmayyadCaliphatesince2067,whenAgellus,ahighlycontagiousvirus,wipedout
1/3ofUmmayyadspopulation,andleft1/4ofsurvivorssterile.Thesecondcontinentalgroup,theEurAsian
Alliance(abbreviatedEAA)spansfromwhatwasonceWesternEuropetotheformerIndia.TheEAAs
biggestproblemiscurrentlytheirdramaticoverpopulationandlackofresources.ThoughEAAisrelatively
peacefulandhasasomewhatstableeconomy,theylackmeanstosufficientlyprovidetheirenormous
populationwiththenecessaryresources.Miscellaneousdiseasesrunrampantthroughoutthenationand
theirinfantmortalityrateisat32.4%,thehighestinthelast75years.Finally,thereisSobreTerra,the
continentcountrythatspansacrossallofformerNorthandSouthAmerica.Thiscountryhasmostofthe
worldsresources,butironicallytheirstrugglingeconomyandlackofpoliticalleadershipholdthisnation
backfromglobaldominance.SobreTerraisravagedwithcivilwarandinfightingamongvariousethnic
groups.Inthenorth,theviolencestemsfromtheracialtensionthatovertooktheformerUSAand,inthe
souththereisanongoingcivilwarbetweenindigenousethnicitiesandtheMestizos.Thoughthereisa
nationalgovernment,druglordsandraciallychargedgangstrulyruntheregion.

Thefollowingisamapofthenewgeographicalliancesandstatisticsoneachnation.

TheUmmayyadCaliphate
Population:
2.5billion
OfficialLanguage:
Arabic
PredominateReligion:
Islam
StyleGovernment:
Centralauthorityandregionalcouncils
NaturalResources:
Oil,Gold,Diamonds(limited),Copper,Iron
ResourcesLacking:
Water,Food
Leader:
ZaydAlBaqri
Capital:
Nicosia(locatedontheislandformerlyknownasCyprus)

TheEurAsianAlliance
Population:
6billion
OfficialLanguage:
MandarinChinese(althoughRussianandGermaniclanguages
arecommoninthewestandnorthofthecountry)
PredominateReligion:
Thereisnone,itisasecularsociety
StyleGovernment:
ConstitutionalDemocracywithatricamerallegislature
NaturalResources:
Steel,Rice,Vegetables,
ResourcesLacking:
Water,Meat,Fruits
Leader:
JungChang

Capital:
Kyoto(locatedonthelandmassformerlyknownasJapan)

SobreTerra
Population:
3.5billion
OfficialLanguage:
Spanish
PredominateReligion:
Christianity
StyleGovernment:
Regionalmayors,serveasnationalcongressmen,arerarely
actuallyintheirregions,thusthisnationisravagedwithlocalviolence.
NaturalResources:
Water,Meat,Fruits,Vegetables,Oil
ResourcesLacking:
Gold,Iron(notanecessity)
Leader:
AlejandraRuz
Capital:
Havana(locatedontheislandformerlyknownasCuba)

Overpopulation
Overview:
Humanpopulationisgrowinglikeneverbefore.Wearenowadding
onebillion
peopletothe
planetevery12years,inadditiontothe12billionthatexistin2100.That'sabout220,000
more
perday.
Thelistofproblemsthisiscausing,oratleastcomplicating,isalongone.Itincludesshortagesofall
ourresources,warandsocialconflict,limitsonpersonalfreedom,overcrowdingandthehealthand
survivalofotherspecies.
SocialProblemswithOvercrowding:
Humansandanimalsalikesuffermanyphysicalandbehavioral
problemswhenplacedinovercrowdedenvironments.Mostlargecitiesin2100areextremelyovercrowded
andthus,workersdiefromcommunicablediseasesatamuchhigherrate.Peoplearemorecautiousabout
theirsocialinteractionsandlesslikelytointeractwithstrangers.Yetthesocialabnormalitiescontinue.
It'sacommonobservationthatpeopleinsmalltownsarefriendlierthanpeopleincities.Lessdensely
packedpeople
are
friendliertowardstheirneighbors.Onespecificfindingwas,"Forevery10percent
decreaseinpopulationdensity,thelikelihoodofresidentstalkingtotheirneighborsatleastonceaweek
jumpsby10percent.Andinvolvementinhobbyorientedclubsincreasesevenmoresignificantlyby15
percentforevery10percentdeclineindensity."
Essentially,themorecrowdedearthis,thelessfriendlyitis,makingitsusceptibletoconflict.
SpeciesExtinction
:Weareinthemidstofoneofthegreatestextinctionsofotherspeciesinthehistoryof
theplanet.Thelastoneofthismagnitudewasover60millionyearsago,whenthedinosaursbecame
extinct.Sincetheturnofthecentury,thenumbersofspecieshasdrasticallydecreased.Mostofthe
millenialsendangeredanimals,suchaspandas,rhinoceroses,elephants,killerwhales,squid,and
mountainlions,areallextinct,whichhasbeencausinganupsetinmanylocalhabitats.
Habitatdestruction
:OurexplodingpopulationintheU.S.isconvertingabout1.2millionacresofrural
landperyeartosubdivisions,malls,workplaces,roads,parkinglots,resortsandthelike.Toputitin

perspective,theruralarealosttodevelopmentbetween1982and1997isaboutequaltotheentireland
massofMaineandNewHampshirecombined.Theruralarealosttodevelopmentbetween2020and2100
is270millionacres,whichisthesizeofallofTexasandCalifornia
combined
.

Resourcescarcity

Braceyourself,theearthisalreadyshiftingunderyou.Whetheryouknowitornot,youreonanew
planet,aresourceshockworldofasorthumanityhasneverbeforeexperienced.

Twonightmarescenariosaglobalscarcityofvitalresourcesandtheonsetofextremeclimate
changearealreadybeginningtoconvergeproducingatidalwaveofunrest,rebellion,competitionand
conflict.Thisisthebeginningofthewaterwarsovercontestedriversystems,globalfoodriotssparkedby
soaringpricesforlifesbasics,massmigrationsofclimaterefugees(withresultingantimigrantviolence)
andthebreakdownofsocialorderorthecollapseofstates:areallimminent.Atfirst,suchmayhemislikely
toariselargelyinAfrica,CentralAsiaandotherareasoftheunderdevelopedSouth,butintime,allregions
oftheplanetwillbeaffected.
Toappreciatethepowerofthisencroachingcatastrophe,itsnecessarytoexamineeachoftheforcesthat
arecombiningtoproducethisfuturecataclysm:ResourceShortagesandResourceWars
Wearedealingwiththescarcitiesofvitalnaturalresources,includingenergy,water,land,foodand
criticalminerals.Thisinitselfhascreatedsocialunrest,geopoliticalfrictionandwar.
Oilthesinglemostimportantcommodityintheinternationaleconomyprovidesanaptexample.In
its2050WorldEnergyOutlook,theInternationalEnergyAgencyclaimedthatananticipatedglobaloil
demandof104millionbarrelsperdayin2075willnotbesatisfied.
I
notherwords,thedemandwillnever
bereachedandtheworldsmajorconsumerswillfacevirtual,ifnotabsolute,scarcity.
Waterprovidesanotherpotentexample.Onanannualbasis,thesupplyofdrinkingwaterprovidedby
naturalprecipitationremainsmoreorlessconstant:about40,000cubickilometers.Butmuchofthis
precipitationlandsonGreenland,Antarctica,SiberiaandinnerAmazoniawherethereareveryfewpeople,
sothesupplyavailabletomajorconcentrationsofhumanityisoftensurprisinglylimited.Inmanyregions
withhighpopulationlevels,watersuppliesarealreadyrelativelysparse.ThisisespeciallytrueofNorth
Africa,CentralAsiaandtheMiddleEast,wherethedemandforwatercontinuestogrowasaresultof
risingpopulations,urbanizationandtheemergenceofnewwaterintensiveindustries.Theresult,even
whenthesupplyremainsconstant,isanenvironmentofincreasingscarcity,socialstrife,andwaterwars.

EnvironmentalCatastrophe
NaturalCatastrophes
Earthquake:
Earthquakesandfloodswillthrough2300stilloccasionallykilltensofthousandsofhumans
indevelopingsocieties.OfevengreaterhistoricalconsequenceincludemassiveearthquakesinTokyo
(2020),SanFrancisco(2033),orLosAngeles(2089),eachthatcrumbledtheentirecity.Theincreaseof
suchquakescouldcauseontheorderofatrilliondollarsindamageandcouldtriggeraworldwide
depression.Intheworstcasethiswouldsetbackhumanprogressbyperhapsadecade.

Pandemic:
Howmuchofhumanitycouldbekilledinthefuturebyanaturallyarisingpathogen?Inthe
1500sand1600s,Europeanepidemicskilledperhaps90%oftheaboriginalAmericans.Inthe1400s,the
plaguekilledonethirdofthehumansinEurope.Theworldwideinfluenzaof1918killed30million,and
AIDShadkilledatleasthalfthatby2000.In2067Agellankilled1/3oftheAfricanpopulation.
Geneticallyengineeredpathogensofchemicalwarfaremaybeaproblemof2100.
AlienAggression
.ThearrivalofextraterrestrialintelligenceonEarthmightseemtoposeathreatto
humancivilization.ThearrivalofHomosapienssapiensinEuropeheraldedtheendofHomosapiens
neanderthalensis.ThearrivalofHomesapiensinAustraliaandtheAmericasquicklyledtotheextinctionof
mostofthenativemegafauna.Contactwithfarmingcivilizationhasalmostinvariablyledtothedeclineor
assimilationofhuntergatherercultures.Contactwithindustrialcivilizationhasalmostinvariablycaused
severedisruptioninpreindustrialcivilizations.Aliensareoutthere,andtheymaybecomingtoearth.
Megatsunami
isantermtodescribeatsunamithathasinitialwaveheightsthataremuchlargerthan
normaltsunamis.Unlikeusualtsunamiswhichoriginatefromtectonicactivityandtheraisingorlowering
oftheseafloorknownmegatsunamishaveoriginatedfromalargescalelandslide,collision,orvolcanic
eruptioneventorpressuredifferentialasaresultofGlobalClimateChange.Theyaremostfrequentinthe
southernportionsoftheEAA,andthemostdeadlyoneoccuredinanIndianport,killingorcritically
wounding2millionpeople.Megatsunamismaybeanoccuranceduringyourdebate.

Whosleft?(Characters)
#indicateswhichregiontheyarefrom:1=SobreTerra,2=Ummayyad,3=EAA
1AlejandraRuz
:PresidentofSobreTerra
1NikolasMartin:
LeaderofthemostpowerfuldrugcartelinSobreTerra,deadly,butalso
representsalargepopulationofthecontinentscitizens
2ZaydAlBakri:
CaliphoftheUmmayyadCaliphate
2NkwameJabulani:
LeaderofthecoopmovementinthesouthoftheUmmayyad,serves
assecondincommandtoAlBakri
3JungChang
:PrimeMinisteroftheEurAsianAlliance
3NadiaValemproff:
PublicRelationsHeadfortheEAA,sheisarepresentativeofEAA's
minorityinterestsintheNorth
1TimothyMitchell:
CorporateBillionaire,ownstherightstotheGreatLakesandallof
Greenland(theworld'slargestwaterreservoirs)

1MartaGomez:
World'sleadingenvironmentalscientist,sheisdevelopingtechnologyto
tryandpreventnaturalcatastrophes.
3ZhouLiu:
RepresentativefromWorldWildlifeFundforNature
3JulianSassenberg:
CEOofMediBekker,theworld'sleadingmedicineprovider.
2AmmaraKhan:
CEOoftheUmmayyad'slargestOilcompany,andworldproviderofthe
remainingfossilfuelgoods
2ThulisileXolani:
RepresentativeofGreenpeace(yesthey'restillaround)

WorksCited
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Earth2100/story?id=7697237&page=1

http://www.thenation.com/article/173967/howresourcescarcityandclimatechangecouldproduce
globalexplosion