NAME: Christina Garcia

A) Concept Explored: Bayes Theorem

B) Initial thoughts: Initially I honestly just didnt understand it. I
remember leaving class and I was just lost. Ive always had a hard time
understanding material in lecture if it a difficult concept. So I had to go
home and dissect what I saw.
C) Connection to past material: Yes this indeed connects to past
material. Bayes Theorem is a special conditional probability formula.
This can be applied even when events have more than just two
outcomes.
D) How I attempted to correct the concept:
Going over the notes again at home and going through the cancerscreening problem helped a lot. Practice problems have always been
my go to when trying to understand new material. The problem asks
What is the probability that this woman has cancer if this second
mammogram also yielded a positive result? So were using the same
concept except for the denominator P(+), we must consider two things:
the probability she has cancer and is tested positive and the
probability she doesnt have cancer and tests positive. The formula is
the following:
C
P
C+

P
P

C+

C+

C' +

P
P

P(+ C ' )
P (C ) P ( + C ) + P(C ' )
P ( C ) P ( + C )

E) Rate your level of confidence in your understanding of the

concept: 4=mostly confident
F) Final definition/description of concept: Bayes Theorem is a
special conditional probability where you must be special attention to
the question to determine the denominator. That was an awful
explanation I know, but that is the truth! Also just remember the
phishing malware problem from class!