Hawassa University

Institute of Technology
School of Civil Engineering
WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS
PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
Exercise I

Instructor: Adane Abebe (Dr.-Ing)

Prepared by: TEMESGEN DEMESSIE

ID NO

PGHYD 04/10

Hawassa, Ethiopia
May, 2014

1. Annual flows in a certain river basin are reduced to unit mean and estimated standard
deviation of 0.182. The first and second serial correlation coefficients are 0.458 and 0.004. It is found that a second order process provides a satisfactory fit to the data.
Generate three additional values using the following independent standard normal
variates: 1.352, -0.532, and 0.789.
Given
t =1.352
Mean=1

t+1=-0.532
t+2=0.789

Std=0.182
1 = 0.458
2 = 0.004

Required
1=?
1=?
B=?

Solution: 1=

t=?
t+1=?
t+2=?g

.
.

= 0.008734

= 1 2 0.008734 0.458 + 0.008734 0.008734 = 1.0081

1=-0.924 or -1.23
But,

Take, 1=-0.924

Let t-1=0
From excel, by taking t-1=0.1303
0.130378
-0.81195
-0.00677
-0.27226
0.02123
-0.24978
1.135047
-1.10454
0.242051
3.126333

-0.35423
1.155686
-1.23885
0.362224
-0.53594
0.419452
1.735889
-0.05147
-1.13098
-1.18358

t=1t-1+t

2.411907
0.005775
-0.40887
-0.81418
-0.53153
1.836897
-1.93062
-1.15226
0.503805
-1.60597

"

1 t 1

=0.7376

I. t=-0.008734*0+1.352*0.736-(-0.924*0.1303*0.736)
t=1.0836
xt=0.182*1.0836+1
xt=1.1972
II.

t+1=1t+t+1

1 t

t+1=-0.008734*1.0836+-0.532*0.7376-(-0.924*1.352*0.736)
t+1=0.518
xt+1=0.182*0.518+1
xt+1=1.0942

III.

t+2=1t+1+t+2

1 t + 1

t+2=-0.008734*0.518+0.789*0.7376-(-0.924*-0.532*0.736)
t+2=0.215
xt+2=0.182*0.215+1
xt+2=1.039