Probability

& Statistics:
Carnival
Game

By Autumn Jones

Carnival Game
At a carnival, you pay $2.00 to play a coin-flipping
game with three fair coins. On each coin, one side has the
number 0 and the other side has the number 1. You flip the
three coins at one time and you win $1.00 for every 1 that
appears on top. Are your expected earnings equal to the cost
to play?

There are eight equally likely outcomes for the throwing of

three coins. They are

000, 001, 011, 111, 110, 100, 010, 101

Group the outcomes by how many 1s each contains:

1234-

000
001, 010, 100
011, 101, 110
111

The random variable of interest counts the number of 1s that

show. What is the sample space for the values of this random
variable?
SS= {000, 001, 010, 011, 100, 101, 110, 111}
0- 1
1- 3
2- 3
3- 1
Number of 1s

Frequency

P(x)

xP(x)

(x)
0
1
2
3

1
3
3
1

1/8=
3/8=
3/8=
1/8=

0.125
0.375
0.375
0.125

The expected value is the sum of xP(x). Find

0
0.375
0.75
0.375

xP(x )

= 1.5

Are your expected earnings less than, equal to, or more than
the cost of the game? Based on your answer, is it wise to play
this game?
The expected earnings are less than the cost of the game because the
expected value is 1.5. If youre trying to make money, it is not wise
because youll lose 50 cents.

Extension
At a carnival, you pay $2.00 to play a coin-flipping
game with four fair coins. On each coin, one side has the
number 0 and the other side has the number 1. You flip the
four coins at one time and you win $1.00 for every 1 that
appears on top. Are your expected earnings equal to the cost
to play?

There are sixteen equally likely outcomes for the throwing of

three coins. They are

0000, 0001, 0011, 0111, 1111, 1110, 1100,

1000, 1011, 1001, 1101, 0100, 0110, 0010, 0101, 1010

Group the outcomes by how many 1s each contains:
12345-

0000
0001, 0010, 0100, 1000
0011, 0101, 0110, 1001, 1010, 1100
0111, 1110, 1011, 1101
1111

The random variable of interest counts the number of 1s that

show. What is the sample space for the values of this random
variable?
SS= {0000, 0001, 0010, 0011, 0100, 0101, 0110, 0111, 1000, 1001,
1010, 1011, 1100, 1101, 1110, 1111}
0- 1

1234-

4
6
4
1

Number of 1s

Frequency

P(x)

(x)
0
1
2
3
4

1
4
6
4
1

1/16=
4/16=
6/16=
4/16=
1/16=

xP(x)
0.625
0.25
0.375
0.25
0.0625

The expected value is the sum of xP(x). Find

0
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.25

xP(x )

=2

Are your expected earnings less than, equal to, or more than
the cost of the game? Based on your answer, is it wise to play
this game?
The expected earnings are equal to the cost of the game because the
expected value is 2. It is wise because you would not lose any money.