Cng ng Kinh t ASEAN ( AEC)

v tin trnh hi nhp: C hi v thch thc

TS. L ng Doanh

CC HIP NH FTA ANG M PHN (1)

TPP, RCEP ang m phn, AEC s c hiu lc cui

2015.

FTA EU-Vit Nam c th k vo cui 2014 vi nhiu c

hi v thch thc. 90% hng ha xut khu sang EU s
hng thu sut 0%, thng mi song phng tng 3040%, hng li nhiu nht l nng sn, thy sn, dt
may, giy dp. ang tip tc m phn v dch v, mua
sm chnh ph, dch v ti chnh, u t v.v. EU c 28
thnh vin.

CC HIP NH FTA ANG M PHN (2)

FTA Vit Nam-EFTA bao gm cc nc Thy S,

Lichtenstein, Na Uy, Iceland.
FTA Vit Nam Lin minh thu quan Nga-KazachstanBelarus.
Nu kt thc m phn, Vit Nam c FTA vi 55 nn kinh
t v c quan h kinh t a phng, cn bng.

Cc lin kt Chu TBD

APEC (FTAAP?)
REGIONAL CEP
ASEAN
Cambodia Indonesia
Laos
Myanmar Philippines
Thailand
India

China

Japan

Singapore
Brunei
Vietnam
?
Malaysia
Australia
New Zealand

TPP
Chile
Peru
United States
Canada
Mexico

Korea
Hong Kong China
Russia
Chinese Taipei Papua New Guinea
4

TPP

RCEP

CC VN TPP
WWW.USTR.GOV

Cnh tranh:bnh ng
Hp tc v Xy dng nng
lc
Dch v xuyn bin gii:minh
bch
Hi quan: minh bch, hp tc
Thng mi in t: s ha
Mi trng: nh c,
Dch v ti chnh:Bnh ng
Mua sm chnh ph:cng
bng
S hu tr tu: TRIPS
u t:Bnh ng
Doanh nghip nh nc: bnh
ng

Lao ng v cng on: quyn lao

ng
Cc vn php l:tranh chp
Tip cn th trng i vi hng ha
Quy tc Xut x
Tiu chun kim dch ng thc vt
(SPS)
Ro cn k thut i vi Thng
mi (TBT)
Vin thng
Nhp cnh tm thi
Qun o dt may
Ch ti thng mi
Dch v: m ca tt c dch v theo
phng thc chn b.

TNG TRNG GDP THEO CC HIP

NH THNG MI

www.amchamvietnam.com

C HI I VI DOANH NGHIP

M rng th trng xut khu vi thu sut thp, nhp

khu thun li.
a dng ha th trng, khng ph thuc vo mt i
tc.
Lin kt, tham gia chui gi tr vi cc doanh nghip
ca cc nc trong TPP.
Mi trng kinh doanh minh bch, bnh ng hn.
Doanh nhn c th tr thnh doanh nhn ton cu, d
dng tip cn cc i tc.
Doanh nghip cn nghin cu tn dng c li th
(thng qua nghin cu, hip hi v.v.)

THCH THC

Quy tc xut x t TPP i vi dt may v cc sn phm

khc, c th v hiu ha u i v thu quan.
Ro cn k thut TBT (Technical Barrier to Trade): nhn,
mc, bao b ng gi, d lng ti a ha cht, tnh hp
php ca nguyn liu s dng.
SPS (Sanitaryand Phytosanitary Standards): rt quan trng
i vi nng, lm, thy sn. Tiu chun qu kht khe, th tc
kim tra tn km v thi gian v tin bc, nguy c hng c
th b tr v
Dch v thay v chn cho nh trong WTO, TPP s p dng
nguyn tc chn b, tc l tr mt s lnh vc nht nh
cn li m ca hay m c iu kin.
TRIPS:S hu tr tu, c th phc tp cho dc, thuc th
y.

NHNG NHN T NG GP VO TNG

TRNG QUA HI NHP

Tng xut khu, to thm vic lm, thu nhp;

Tng FDI, to thm vic lm, gi tr gia tng;
Tip cn nhanh hn vi cng ngh cao, tng gi tr gia tng,
m rng th phn;
Cnh tranh bnh ng, doanh nghip ci tin qun tr;
Doanh nghip ra nhp chui gi tr ton cu;
Chnh ph ci cch hnh chnh, gim th tc, cng khai,
minh bch theo tiu chun quc t;
Hng ha r hn v phong ph hn, ngi tiu dng c
hng li.
Mt vic lm, ph sn nhng doanh nghip khng th
cnh tranh.

NNG NGHIP: 5 N 5 THUA?

Trng trt, lng thc,

thy sn c c hi.
Thi Lan, n cha
vo TPP, c hi cho go
Vit;
M vi VN: thu xut
khu go t 7% xung
0%
Ro cn k thut: c tra
vo th trng M 2015,
th thch v c hi;
C hi hp tc Vit
Nam-Nht Bn trong sn
xut nng nghip, thy
sn.

Chn nui nguy cp c 3 i

tng chnh l heo, g v b. Chn
nui g quy m nh, khng c kh
nng cnh tranh, k c g tht v g
trng nn rt d b thua thit.i
vi chn nui heo, VN c u th SX
ni a v ngi dn c thi quen s
dng tht ti. Tuy nhin xu hng
tiu dng ny s nhanh chng thay
i v ngi dn chuyn dn sang
vic s dng tht ng lnh... Chnh
v vy c ngnh chn nui heo v g
c th ng trc nguy c b thua
thit. B tht v b sa chu sc p
nng n. Cn c gii php cp bch.

Cng ng An ninh
ASEAN (ASC)

Cng ng Kinh
t ASEAN (AEC)

Cng ng Vn
ha X hi
ASEAN (ASCC)

ASEAN
Ha bnh, thnh vng, ly con ngi lm trung tm

Nn tng sn
xut khu vc

Ref. Think ASEAN, by P. Kotler, H.

Kartajaya, H.D. Huan

Th trng khu
vc ring bit

14

 AEC

s chuyn i thnh
MT
TH TRNG RING BIT
&
NN TNG SN XUT

Vi DCH CHUYN T DO ca
oHng ha
oDch v
o Nhn cng c k nng &
o Ngun vn t do

v
- Khu vc Kinh t Cnh tranh cao;
- Khu vc ca Pht trin Kinh t Cn bng
- Khu vc Hi nhp hon ton vo Kinh t Ton cu.

15

Cc cp ca hi nhp quc t
Hip
nh
th-ng mi
-u i
Khu
vc
th-ng mi
t do
Lin
minh
thu quan
Th tr-ng
chung
Lin
minh
kinh t
Gim thu Loi
b Thu quan Dch chuyn
quan trong thu quan chung
i t do lao
nhm
trong
vi
ngoi ng v vn
nhm
nhm
trong nhm

Chnh sch
kinh
t
chung v
ng tin
chung
16

AEC: NC THANG HI NHP C GII HN

V HIN THC
-AEC mi ch vt qua c mc Lin minh thu quan v c
mt s yu t ca Th trng chung theo s trn y, cha
c chnh sch kinh t chung v cng cha c cc c quan lin
quc gia nh Lin Minh Chu u (EU).

-T nm 1993, Khu vc thng mi t do ASEAN (AFTA)

c thnh lp, cc nc ASEAN-6 (Singapore, Malaysia, Thi
Lan, Philipin, Indonesia v Brunei) hu nh hon tt l trnh
ct gim thu quan v cc ro cn phi thu quan ca h nn
khng cn khng gian ng k no thm cho t do ha thng
mi na gia cc nn kinh t ASEAN-6.

CC BN LIN QUAN

LI CH

Ngi tiu dng

Nhiu la chn hn v hng ha v dch v vi

gi thp hn , mu m v cht lng cao hn

Nh sn xut

Khuyn khch nng cao hiu qu sn xut

Nng cao nng lc cnh tranh
Nhiu la chn hn vi cc yu t u vo vi
mc gi thp hn
Th trng xut khu rng hn
y mnh quan h kinh doanh
Tng nng lc m phn
Tip cn th trng ln hn
Nng cao nng lc cnh tranh
Nhiu la chn hn v chuyn gia
C th trng xut khu ln hn i vi hng
ha nng nghip trong/ngoi ASEAN nht l
vi nhng mt hng c chi ph sn xut tt
hn
18

Nh xut khu

Nh cung cp
dch v
Nng dn

THCH THC
Cnh tranh gia tng

Hng ha r hn t cc nc ASEAN khc

Nhng i th mi c php m rng hot ng
trong ASEAN

Tnh lu ng ca lao ng
S dch chuyn ca lao ng c k nng ca Vit Nam
sang cc nc lng ging ASEAN vi mc lng cao hn
tr nn trm trng do s ngi c trnh tham gia vo
khu vc cng nghip v khu vc dch v ang pht trin t
hn

19

C hi

Thch thc

Th trng c m rng mt cch

mnh m ln ti 600 triu ngi
Chi ph u vo thp hn thng qua cc
i x u i v nn tng sn xut ring
bit
To ra nhiu c hi u t
Gip Vit Nam t pht trin thnh:

H tng ti chnh

Nc nng nghip, ngh c v xut khu

thc phm trong khu vc
u mi sn xut vi chi ph lao ng
thp trong khu vc
Ngun nguyn liu t nhin trong khu
vc
im n du lch trong khu vc

Cnh tranh gia tng: cho FDI v h tng yu km

Ci cch chnh sch ti chnh

Ci cch ngn hng
Tng cng chu trnh qun l u t cng

Vi lao ng c k nng do mc lng cao hn

cc nc lng ging
i vi cc cng ty a quc gia khi u t

Ci cch doanh nghip nh nc v nhu cu thu hp

SOEs v tng cng t nhn ha
Ngun nhn lc tr c o to trong i th mi c php m rng hot ng trong
khu vc
ASEAN
im n cho ti tr v gio dc trong Tnh lu ng ca lao ng
khu vc
Quc gia c la chn cho cng ngh S dch chuyn ca lao ng c k nng ca Vit
MSME, dch v v i mi
Nam sang cc nc lng ging c mc lng cao
20

Thnh phn

Nguy c gp phi

Ngi tiu dng

S dng sn phm km cht lng tr phi c s bo h

dnh cho ngi tiu dng.

Nh sn xut

Doanh nghip Vit Nam nu thiu tnh cnh tranh/ gi

thnh cao s b chim lnh th trng bi cc doanh
nghip trong khu vc ASEAN

Nh xut khu

S cnh tranh quyt lit n t cc th trng ln hn.

Nguy c cao b y khi th trng tr khi c nhng s

ci thin ng k v cht lng v ci tin t ph trong
sn xut
Nhiu i th cnh tranh

Nh cung cp dch
v

Nh nng

Ngun nhn lc di do c th b thu ht bi nhng i

th trong khu vc vi mc lng hp dn hn

Phi cnh tranh vi nhng sn phm cht lng hn vi

gi thnh cnh tranh hn tr khi c s nng cao gi tr
sn xut

Thu hp th phn.
21

AEC V BN NC CLMV
iu mi trong AEC l bn nc thnh vin mi CLMV
(Campuchia, Lo, Myanmar v Vit Nam) c nn kinh t km
pht trin hn, hi nhp chm hn, s phi ct gim thu quan
v cc ro cn phi thu quan cho hng ha v dch v t cc
nc ASEAN khc m ch yu v thc cht l t cc nn kinh
t pht trin hn ca ASEAN-6.
Cc nc ASEAN-6 ang ho hc ch i c hi ny v h c
th m rng th trng, tn dng lao ng v ti nguyn gi r
bn nc CLMV v trn cc c quan bo ch cc nc
gn y ln ting by t s lo ngi v "s chun b chm
chp" cng nh "biu hin thiu quyt tm" thc hin y
cc cam kt AEC bn nc CLMV ny.

C HI V THCH THC V LAO NG T

AEC (1)

AEC mi ch cho php mt s ngnh ngh nh k s, k

ton, kin trc s, bc s, nha s, y t, h l,trc a vin, cc
ngnh ngh lin quan n du lch c dch chuyn t do
nh t c tha thun cng nhn bng cp tng
ng nhau.

Cc doanh nghip phi b sung cc ch , chnh sch

tuyn dng nhn s t nc ngoi trong AEC.

C HI V THCH THC V LAO NG

T AEC (1)

C hi v thch thc ln cho o to: k nng, k

lut lao ng, ngoi ng. K s sn xut ca Vit
Nam c th p ng yu cu nhng k s v cng
ngh cao, cng ngh thng tin th cha p ng.

Cnh tranh s gia tng trong cc dch v cn thiu

v yu nh chm sc sc khe, cng ngh thng
tin v.v.

NHNG RO CN QUC GIA

Mi nc c quyn p t nhng quy nh ca nc s
ti i vi s dch chuyn lao ng vo nc h.
Th d nh lao ng n hnh ngh Thi Lan s phi
tri qua k thi vit v ting Thi chng t trnh
ngn ng. Qua c k thi ny, bc s c th c lm
vic cng ng nghip Thi trong bnh vin, song, nu
mun m phng mch t hay vn phng ring s phi
tri qua thm mt k thi st hch v lut php Thi vit
bng ting Thi. Kim ton vin cng phi tri qua k thi
bng ting Thi v lut php v h thng thu khng
n gin ca Thi Lan.

TH CH XP HNG THP THEO WEF

Ch tiu

Th ch
Th ch cng
Lut v s hu
Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt
Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt cho xut, nhp
khu

Xp hng trn
im s
144 nc
(1-7 l cao nht)
92
3,5
85
3,5
104
3,4
109
3,2
121
2,6

Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt cho np thu hng

nm

104

3,5

Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt nhn c kt

qu t php thun li
Hiu qu ca Chnh ph
Gnh nng ca quy nh ca chnh ph
Tnh minh bch ca qu trnh son tho chnh sch
ca chnh ph

117

2,9

91
101
116

3,2
3,1
3,5

NNG SUT LAO NG CA VIT NAM SO

VI KHU VC
$45.000

$40.000

South
Korea

GDP per person employed,

PPP adjusted in 1990 US$

$35.000

$30.000

$25.000

$20.000

$15.000

Thailand

$10.000

China
Indonesia
Vietnam

$5.000

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

$0

Bng 1. Vit Nam trong So Snh vi cc nc: NSL, Mt vn (TFP) (2012)

United States
Singapore
Hong Kong
Japan
Taiwan
Korea
Malaysia
Sri Lanka
Thailand
China
Philippines
Indonesia
India
Pakistan
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Nepal

NSL

Mt Vn

(A)
20.3
14.1
14.0
13.7
13.7
9.6
6.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5

(B)
17.2
17.3
20.4
20
10.8
9.8
6.2
2.1
2.8
2.7
1.4
1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.3

(Vietnam = 1)
TFP

4.3
3.9
4.6
3.5
3.7
4.2
3.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.7

29

TIM NNG TH TRNG VIT NAM

TD:
+T l TD/100 dn: 151%
(T6/2013)
+ T l 3G/100 dn: 37%
(T9/2013)

Th thanh ton: 63 triu th

(Q3/2013)

Internet: T l DS dng
Internet: 35.58% (T11/2012)
+ Xp th 18/20 quc gia trn ton
cu
+ Tng 15 ln so vi nm 2000

CNH TRANH GAY GT TRN SN NH (1)

Li th cnh tranh ca Vit Nam ch yu l lao ng

ng o, gi r, hc nhanh, kho tay nhng k nng
thp.
Dt-may, da giy, in t (in thoi Samsung) c li
th cnh tranh nhng gi tr gia tng thp, u l gia
cng, lp rp.
t, thp, c kh, ma ng, cc sn phm chn
nui nh heo, b, g, dch v ti chnh- ngn hng,
phn mm chu cnh tranh gay gt hn vi i th
mnh hn.

CNH TRANH GAY GT TRN SN NH (1)

Cc hng phn phi ASEAN chun b

chim lnh th trng v thc s e da sn
xut cng nghip v nng nghip ca Vit
Nam.
Ci cch kinh t, ci cch th ch, ti c cu
kinh t cp quc gia, ngnh, doanh nghip
l mnh lnh ca cuc sng vn ln
trong AEC.

CM N

33