The Low Case scenario assumes a lower rate of growth associated with general residential and commercial

demand, and assumes that only 25% of planned industrial loads materialize within the forecast period (i.e.,
that development takes more time). Under the Low Case scenario, peak demand is expected to grow at an
average of 29% per year, from 19 MW in 2013 to 111 MW in 2020. Energy demand increases at 35% annually,
from 60.8 GWh in 2013 to 500.4 GWh.
None of these demand scenarios include the 1000 MW aluminum smelter that is being considered for
development in the Ad Duqm Zone. If confirmed, this project may be added to the electricity demand forecast
and capacity plan in future.

Musandam
The Musandam Governorate expects future developments aimed to boost touristic, economic, and
commercial activities. The specific nature and details of these developments are in many cases not yet well
defined. Therefore, forecast scenarios have been developedExpected Demand, Low Case, and High Caseon
the basis of differing assumptions of average annual growth rates for overall demand. Observation of out-turns
against these forecasts, and further details of specific projects, are expected to allow refinement of the
forecast methodology in future. The three demand scenarios are shown in Figure 16 below.
Under the Expected Demand forecast, average hourly demand is expected to grow from 35 MW
(corresponding to 0.31 TWh) in 2014 to 53 MW (0.46 TWh) in 2020, an average increase of 7% per year. Peak
demand is also assumed expected to grow at 7% per year, from 65 MW in 2014 to 98 MW in 2020.
The High Case scenario assumes a growth rate of 8% per year in peak demand. With corresponds to a growth
in peak demand from 66 MW in 2014 to 107 MW in 2020. The Low Case scenario assumes a growth rate of 5%
for both peak demand and energy.

Figure 16

Electricity Demand Projections Musandam Governorate

"Low Case" Average Demand

Expected Average Demand

"High Case" Average Demand

Expected Peak Demand

"Low Case" Peak Demand

"High Case" Peak Demand

120.00
100.00

MW

80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
2014

7-Year Statement (2014-2020)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

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