Monday, June 15, 2015

MEMO: LONGWITZ DOMINATING, BUOYED BY STRONG POSITIVE NAME ID

TO:
FROM:
RE:

Leadership Team for Senator Will Longwitzs Campaign

Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner
H2H/Issue Survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in MS Senate District 25

Cygnal conducted a district-wide telephone survey in Mississippis State Senate District 25 last
week on behalf of Friends of Will Longwitz. The goal was to examine the current public opinion
of likely Republican primary election voters concerning the favorability of candidates and issues.
KEY FINDINGS
Will Longwitz has strong favorable name ID for an incumbent (61% fav / 10% unfav;
6.1:1 ratio); keep in mind a 2:1 fav/unfav ratio is considered workable for an incumbent
Among females, a key GOP primary voting group, Longwitzs favorables are 66%
Bill Billingsley is an unknown quantity (60% never heard of); 59% never heard of in
Madison County
Mississippi Republicans believe things in the state are headed in the right direction
(56%); only 13% believe things in the state are definitely on the wrong track
Longwitz is above the important 50% threshold on the ballot test question, easily besting
Billingsley, who is 37 points down
Current head-to-head in the primary race is 51% Longwitz 14% Billingsley
The incumbents support among voters with the highest propensity to vote in the primary
is at a staggering 60% with 27% of that group undecided
SUMMARY
Will Longwitz is in a very strong position two months out from the election. It would take
significant resources to improve Billingsleys favorables enough to be competitive, and even
then there probably is not enough time for him to improve over Longwitz. Just looking at the
numbers, we would consider this race highly uncompetitive.
METHODOLOGY
This telephone survey was conducted June 7-9, 2015 with 489 likely Republican primary
election voters. It has a margin of error between 4.36% and 5.01%. Interviews were
conducted using IVR technology to some landlines and live operator to both some landlines and
all cell phones. Landline interviews constituted 84% of the calls, while 16% were conducted by
cell phone.
Cygnal is a national communication and research firm. During the 2014 cycle, the firm conducted over 160 highly accurate
polls in 12 states. While the national average for public polling in 2014 a rough year for polls was an 8-point difference in
survey results versus Election Day results, Cygnals was only a 2-point difference, less than half its polls average margin of
error.