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Paper N 10/015February 2010

CEB Working




) .(-

.

.

Universit Libre de Bruxelles Solvay Brussels School of Economics


and Management
Centre Emile Bernheim
ULB CP 145/01 50, avenue F.D. Roosevelt 1050 Brussels BELGIUM
e-mail: ceb@admin.ulb.ac.be Tel. : +32 (0)2/650.48.64 Fax : +32 (0)2/650.41.88

:

.
This document was translated by Sanabel, the Microfinance Network of Arab Countries, Inc., with support
from Grameen-Jameel, a social business jointly owned by ALJ Foundation and Grameen Foundation to
alleviate poverty in the Arab region through microfinance.

/

CEB Working Paper N 10/015
February 2010

) .(-

.
.

gregor.dorfleitner@wiwi.uni-r.de :
christopher.priberny@wiwi.uni-r.de :

.

. :
. :

) (Bystrm, 2007 .

) I
( .

. .

I
. ) (Glaubitt et al., 2008

) (Jobst, 2007

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- . .


.
.

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) (Glaubitt et al., 2008
. .

.

.

)(Dorfleitner and Leid, 2009

)(HttenrauchandSchneider,2008
)( Glaubittetal

.
) (Watson, 2009 .

.
.

) (Glaubitt et al, 2008


.

.
. ) (Bystrm, 2008

) (Akerlof, 1970 " "


. .

.
) (Littlefield and Kneiding, 2009

.
.

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/ /

.
.

)( Glaubittetal
)( Bystrm
)(Jobst,2008

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.
.

(Wilcoxon signed rank test) .


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.

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.). (Hamerle et al., 2008


)(Chorosetal.,2009

: ) (

5.3714

.
3.3824

4.0294

.
.

.
.

1.8956

1.1282

1.1014

0.9370

3.1765

3.5000

NA

1.1612
1.1407

2.6

4.2647

0.9632

4.2059

0.9138

2.8

3.1515

0.9722

3.0

4.0645

0.9639

3.2903

0.9727

3.3

3.4194

0.7648

3.7097

0.9016

. )

4.0323

1.0796

3.0000

1.0328

2.7742

1.2572

2.2333

1.0400

4.0968

0.8309

5.0

.
.....


8.1

5.4516

2.2337

8.2

5.6129

1.7640

31

8.3

7.4516

1.2066

31

8.4

6.9032

1.8139

31

8.5 )(

7.3226

1.1941

8.6

6.7097

1.7549

8.7

6.3871

1.7258

31

31

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) (Bluhm and Overbeck, 2007

)(KraussandWalter,2008
(ChurchillandFrankiewicz,2006)12

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(Mounfield,2008)

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12

Default

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AAA

0.00
0.04
0.09
0.28
1.55
1.99
24.59

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90.70
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0.27

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91.65
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0.00
0.00

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AgroCapital
BancoSol
CRECER
FIE
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MICROS

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3400
1100
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7500

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1

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0.00374
0.84264
0.00374
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0.05612
0.05901
0.05613
0.10961

17

AA CompartamosBanco
BANEX (Ex
BBB
)FINDESA
FAMA
BBB
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B
Arequipa

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4600

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Data

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(EuropeanFundforSoutheastEurope,2007)
11.06.2009 )(ThomsonDatastream

18

2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999

0.159644
0.130380
0.131750
0.145820
0.130886
0.056725
0.007760
0.007808
0.051953

0.095693
0.061891
0.021587
0.065640
0.063580
0.095500
0.042900
0.049900
0.229200

0.302575
0.309043
0.289835
0.365253
0.527800
0.495148
0.363944
0.444282
0.163467

0.190256
0.217373
0.226171
0.172658
0.117495
0.099309
0.113040
0.139155
0.140115

0.259006
0.271205
0.316358
0.266086
0.274590
0.339920
0.214262
0.144459
0.077709

-0.1449

-0.1121

0.6502

0.5359

1.0000


-0.1449

1.0000

-0.5219

-0.2423

-0.6102

-0.1121

-0.5219

1.0000

-0.5357

0.4663

0.6502

-0.2423

-0.5357

1.0000

0.2159

0.5359

-0.6102

0.4663

0.2159

1.0000

19

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35

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%
%
0.02980 0.02980 0.02975 0.02980 0.02980
- 0.00042 0.02980 0.02980
0.16490
0.06942 0.06942 0.05600 0.06942 0.06942
- 0.02273
-0.14229
0.02922
1.00000
0.22150 0.22150 0.13700 0.22150 0.04819
- 0.23540 -0.24698 -0.13925
0.93780
(

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0.00000


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0.08875

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0.00043

0.00409

0.00955

0.17172

0.04020

0.57310

0.00000

0.00000

0.02654

0.00000

0.00000

0.00000

0.00003

0.00124

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squared

10 :

. www.wunderground.org / /
. GDD

23

. , , , , ,

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) .(

. ) ( ) ( .

: Rsquared
ROEX GDD .

AgroCapital

0.37071


0.38717

0.67453

BancoSol

0.68007

0.14838

0.69210

CRECER

0.35469

0.22276

0.48498

FIE

0.13932

0.04595

0.16805

Fundacin
MICROS
CompartamosBanco

0.02679

0.00793

0.03894

0.00746

0.01001

0.01522

0.04377

0.53169

0.56308

0.12278

0.15929

0.18924

0.45761

0.51307

0.64789

BANEX (Ex
)FINDESA
FAMA
EDPYME Crear
Arequipa

: :
.

%
%
-0.30110 0.00196 0.02980 0.02980

0.02980 0.02980 0.02960 0.02980 0.02980

0.02574

-0.30737

-1.00000 0.04904

0.06942 0.06942 0.04697 0.06942 0.06942

-0.15577

-0.27084

-1.00000 0.24736

0.22150 0.22150 0.12990 0.22150 0.00932

24

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26


Akerlof,G.A.(1970).TheMarketforLemons:QualityUncertaintyandtheMarketMechanism.TheQuarterlyJournal
ofEconomics84(3),488500.

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Springer(inpress).

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FundforSoutheastEurope.

Finger,C.C.(2000).AComparisonofStochasticDefaultRateModels.RiskMetricsJournal
1(2),4973.

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comparativeanalysis.Technicalreport.

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349378.Berlin[u.a.]:Springer.

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27


Httenrauch,H.andC.Schneider(2008).Securitisation:Afundingalternativeformicrofinanceinstitutions.InI.
MatthusMaierandJ.v.Pischke(Eds.),NewPartnershipsforInnovationinMicrofinance,pp.299347.Springer.

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MortgageCrisis.Workingpaper.

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QUARTERLY4((1/2)),2340.

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PrincetonUniv.Press.

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Washington:CGAP.

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Chichester:WileyandJohnWiley.

Mounfield,C.C.(2008).SyntheticCDOs:Modelling,valuationandriskmanagement.
Cambridge:CambridgeUniv.Press.

Schnbucher,P.J.(2003).Creditderivativespricingmodels:Modelspricingandimplementation.Wileyfinanceseries.
Chichester:Wiley.

Sklar,A.(1959).Fonctionsderpartitionndimensionsetleursmarges.PublicationsdelInstituteStatistque
delUniversitdeParis8,229231.

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Insights11(2).

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traderswhorelyonthem.WilmottJournal1(1),122.

WorldBank(Ed.)(2005).ManagingagriculturalproductionriskInnovationsindeveloping
contries.TheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank.

28

: )
(

229.5

P
0.162790

147.5

0.536045

.
479

0.035007

0.000015

314.5

0.014142

0.201970

2.6

494

0.000004

0.000005

2.8

.
354

0.184456

0.000023

0.055857

3.3

281

0.003574

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.
127.5

0.500000

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212

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379

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0.000028

0.000001

0.000079

.
.

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8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
.

281.5

29

8.7

286

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30

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(

229.5

0.84318493

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.
479

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354

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0.99997964

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281

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0.99968398

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127.5

0.51319163

0.16637986

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212

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0.93979509

379

0.99999863

0.99997456

0.99999899

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8.2
8.3
8.4

8.5

281.5

0.99992982

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286

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31

= = ... = ...

= 1 = ....... = ...

3.0

= 1 = ....... = ...

= 1 = ....... = ...

5.0

= 1 = ....... = ...

.
.....

= 1 = ....... = ...


= = ... = ...

: GDD

GDD


GDD


GDD


GDD


GDD

2007

4838

3525

2281

6222

3011

2006

4954

3465

2275

6297

3426

2005

4825

3523

2483

6075

3206

2004

4330

3209

2133

5538

2904

2003

4785

3531

2393

6167

3083

2002

4965

3491

2400

6097

3168

2001

4700

3354

2068

6093

2925

2000

3438

2919

1900

5553

2887

32

4807

1999

2055

3250


GDD


GDD


GDD


GDD


GDD

3329

5860



GDD

GDD
GDD
GDD
GDD

0.222

1.0000

0.1449

0.1121

0.6502

0.5359

0.5792 0.4276

0.3197 0.6306

0.1449

1.0000

0.5219

0.2423

0.6102

0.104 0.2253

0.4045 0.0868 0.2521

0.1121

0.5219

1.0000

0.5357

0.4663

0.0198 0.2447

0.4424 0.0158 0.1881

0.6502

0.2423

0.5357

1.0000

0.2159

0.2143 0.1396

0.281

0.1679

0.3546

0.5359

0.6102

0.4663

0.2159

1.0000

0.6863 0.4464

0.4631 0.8254

0.0417

0.4276

0.2253

0.2447

0.1396

0.4464

0.9045 1.0000

0.8059 0.7183

0.6294

0.5792

0.104

0.0198

0.2143

0.6863

1.0000 0.9045

0.8771 0.8943

0.4468

0.6306

0.2521

0.1881

0.281

0.8254

0.8943 0.7183

0.6695 1.0000

0.4153

0.3197

0.0868

0.0158

0.1679

0.4631

0.8771 0.8059

1.0000 0.6695

0.5277

0.222

0.4045

0.4424

0.3546

0.0417

0.4468 0.6294

0.5277 0.4153

1.0000

33

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