Chng 5

Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

v chi ph s dng vn

Financial Modeling

5.1 Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

Hin gi (PV) v hin gi thun (NPV):
Trong Excel, hm PV l tnh hin gi ca mt chui tin
t u, c c php nh sau:
= PV(Rate,Nper,Pmt,[Fv],[Type])
Rate : li sut chui tin t u.
Nper : s k ca chui tin t.
Pmt : S tin pht sinh mi k.
FV

: s tin trong tng lai. Mc nh l 0.

Type : 0 l chui cui k. 1 l chui u k. Mc nh l 0.

Financial Model

5.1 Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

Tng t chng ta c cc hm RATE, PMT, NPER
tnh cc yu t khc lin quan n chui tin t u.
C th:
= RATE(nper,pmt,pv,[fv],[type])
= PMT(rate,nper,pv,[fv],[type])
= NPER(rate,pmt,pv,[fv],[type])

Financial Model

5.1 Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

Trong Excel, hm NPV c p dng tnh hin gi
ca mt chui tin t khng u, pht sinh cui k:
= NPV(rate,value1,value2)
tnh ton hin gi thun ca mt dng tin, chng ta
s dng hm NPV trong Excel v sau tr b sung
gi tr vn u t nm 0.

Financial Model

5.1 Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

T sut sinh li ni ti IRR
T sut hon vn ni b IRR c nh ngha nh l t
sut sinh li r% m ti s cn bng hin gi ca
dng thu nhp tng lai vi vn u t b ra, hay NPV
= 0.
Chng ta c th s dng cng c GoalSeek tm IRR
hay n gin hn l dng hm IRR.
= IRR(value,[guess])

Financial Model

5.1 Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

IRR a tr:

Trn thc t c nhng d n u t vi mu hnh dng tin mang tnh c

th s c IRR a tr (nhiu hn 1 tr IRR).

Hm IRR ca Excel cho php gip chng ta tm c 2 gi tr IRR. Thay v

cng thc =IRR(values), chng ta s vit =IRR(values, guess).

Lun c guess l im khi u cho thut ton m Excel s s dng

tm cc tr IRR. C 2 iu cn thit phi lu n tin trnh ny:

Lun c guess phi gn st vi gi tr IRR m ta cn tm v lun c

guess khng ch c mt gi tr duy nht.

xc nh s tr IRR v gi tr xp x ca chng, cc bn nn s dng

th biu din NPV v bn thn th ny l mt hm s biu din NPV thay
i theo li sut chit khu r%.

Financial Model

5.1 Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

Khung tnh hung:

Cng ty Airbus ang cn nhc cc vn lin quan n ti chnh

v kh nng b sung thm mt nhnh sn phm mi.

Chi ph khi s cho m hnh my bay th h mi A3XXs c

c tnh khong 150.000.000$. D bo lng cu i vi my
bay A3XXs l 10 chic cho mi mt nm trong 4 nm vng i ca
d n. Mt chic my bay mi s c bn vi gi 35.000.000$.
Chi ph c nh c c tnh 15.000.000$ cho mt nm, trong khi
chi ph bin i s khong 75% trn doanh s mi nm.

Financial Model

5.1 Cc php tnh ti chnh c bn

Chi ph khu hao chu thu i vi thit b mi s l
10.000.000$ mt nm trong sut vng i ca d n
my bay A3XXs l 4 nm. Gi tr cn li ca thit b vo
cui nm th 4 ca d n xem nh l 0$.
Chi ph s dng vn ca hng Airbus l 10%, v thu
sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip l 34%.

Financial Model

5.2 Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn c phn:
M hnh Gordon:

D1 D1 (1 g ) D1 (1 g ) 2 D1 (1 g) 3
D1 (1 g ) t 1
D1
P0

...

1 re (1 re ) 2
(1 re ) 3
(1 re ) 4
(1 re ) t
(re g )
t 1

D1
re
g
P0

D0 (1 g )
re
g
P0

iu kin g<re
Financial Model

5.2 Chi ph s dng vn

M hnh Gordon khi c tc tng qu nhanh:
Cch gii quyt l ta xem nh c phiu ca cng ty c dng thu
nhp c tc tng trng u qua 2 giai on v gi tr hin ti ca
c phiu s c tnh ton nh sau:

P0 = P01 + P02

DIV0 (1 g1 ) t
P01
(1 r %)t
t 1
H

DIVH 1
1
P02
r % g 2 (1 r %) H

Financial Model

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5.2 Chi ph s dng vn

ng dng m hnh Gordon trong thc tin:
Cc yu t D0 v P0 u c sn, vn duy nht l g.
Th nht, c th s dng s liu c tc trong qu kh
tm g. Lu : y l g qu kh ch khng phi g d
bo trong tng lai.
Th hai, s dng cc bo co d kin trong tng lai
tm g. (chng sau).
Th ba, s dng s liu d bo ca cc cng ty nghin
cu trn th trng.
Financial Model

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5.2 Chi ph s dng vn

M hnh CAPM xc nh re:
re= rf + [E(rM) rf]
Rf: t sut sinh li phi ri ro (c th s dng li sut k
phiu chnh ph).
Rm: t sut sinh li th trng
Beta:

COV (TSSL M , TSSL A)

A
Var (TSSL M )

Financial Model

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5.2 Chi ph s dng vn

ng dng m hnh CAPM trong thc tin:
rf: li sut k phiu chnh ph.
rm: s dng 1 danh mc (ch s) i din th trng.
Beta:
S dng cng thc thng k.
S dng ng Trendine trong Excel.
S dng hi quy tnh.

Financial Model

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5.3 Chi ph s dng n

Phng php 1: Chi ph s dng n vay bnh qun:
Chi ph s dng n = Li vay/D n bnh qun.
Phng php 2: T sut sinh li iu chnh ri ro:
S dng t sut sinh li ca cc chng khon cng ty
c cng mc ri ro. Nu mt cng ty c xp hng A
v hu ht n ca cng ty l n trung hn, khi ta c
th s dng t sut sinh li khi u t vo cc chng
khon n trung hn ca cc cng ty xp hng tn nhim
l A nh l chi ph s dng n ca cng ty.
Financial Model

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5.3 Chi ph s dng n

Phng php 3: S dng m hnh CAPM

rD = rf + n vay[E(rM) rf]
A
N
vay

A
Cov (rN
vay , rM )

Var (rM )

Trong thc tin, h s beta i vi n ca mt cng ty lin quan

n 2 yu t:

Thi gian o hn ca n vay: thi gian o hn xa hn th ri ro

cao hn tng ng v ngc li.

Ri ro khng tr c n: ri ro khng tr c n cao hn th h

s beta ca n s cao hn.

Financial Model

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5.4 Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun

Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC):

E
D
WACC
rE
rD (1 TC )
ED
ED

Financial Model

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5.5 Cc trc trc trong m hnh

i vi m hnh Gordon:
i vi cc cng ty khng chi tr c tc hoc dng c
tc khng n nh s lm m hnh khng cn chnh
xc.
C th iu chnh vn ny bng cch da vo
nhng bo co ti chnh d kin trong tng lai.

Financial Model

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5.5 Cc trc trc trong m hnh

i vi m hnh CAPM
i khi, nhng con s thng k hm cha nhng vn
(v d: beta m hoc ngha thng k beta khng
cao). Chng ta c th gii quyt vn ny bng cch
quan st trc tip cc yu t ri ro ca cng ty trn th
trng.

Financial Model

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5.6 Kt lun

Lun lun s dng mt vi m hnh khc nhau tnh ton chi ph

s dng vn.

Tnh ton chi ph s dng vn khng ch cho cng ty ang phn

tch m cn cho c nhng cng ty cng ngnh.

Rt ra c mt c lng nht qun chi ph s dng vn, loi b

nhng con s khng hp l (nh chi ph s dng vn m ca cng
ty Big City)

Ni tm li, tnh ton chi ph s dng vn khng ch n gin l

mt bi tp hai cng vi hai l bn!

Financial Model

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