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    Totales: Mes 2 F2 Y1 80 Error Al Cuadrado

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    Yenny Ramirez Soras
    This document contains data and calculations for forecasting techniques including: 1) Simple 3-month moving average forecasting which calculates the average of the previous 3 months actual values to forecast the next month. 2) Exponential smoothing forecasting which calculates each new forecast as a weighted average of the previous actual value and previous forecast. 3) Tables showing actual values, moving average forecasts, exponential smoothing forecasts and their errors to evaluate the accuracy of each technique.

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    Totales: Mes 2 F2 Y1 80 Error Al Cuadrado

    Uploaded by

    Yenny Ramirez Soras
    15 views2 pages
    This document contains data and calculations for forecasting techniques including: 1) Simple 3-month moving average forecasting which calculates the average of the previous 3 months actual values to forecast the next month. 2) Exponential smoothing forecasting which calculates each new forecast as a weighted average of the previous actual value and previous forecast. 3) Tables showing actual values, moving average forecasts, exponential smoothing forecasts and their errors to evaluate the accuracy of each technique.

    Original Description:

    ransa

    Original Title

    Mes-1 Ransa Metodos

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    This document contains data and calculations for forecasting techniques including: 1) Simple 3-month moving average forecasting which calculates the average of the previous 3 months actual values to forecast the next month. 2) Exponential smoothing forecasting which calculates each new forecast as a weighted average of the previous actual value and previous forecast. 3) Tables showing actual values, moving average forecasts, exponential smoothing forecasts and their errors to evaluate the accuracy of each technique.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    15 views2 pages

    Totales: Mes 2 F2 Y1 80 Error Al Cuadrado

    Uploaded by

    Yenny Ramirez Soras
    This document contains data and calculations for forecasting techniques including: 1) Simple 3-month moving average forecasting which calculates the average of the previous 3 months actual values to forecast the next month. 2) Exponential smoothing forecasting which calculates each new forecast as a weighted average of the previous actual value and previous forecast. 3) Tables showing actual values, moving average forecasts, exponential smoothing forecasts and their errors to evaluate the accuracy of each technique.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 2

    MES

    Yt
    1
    2
    3
    4

    80
    82
    84
    83

    83

    84

    85

    84

    82

    PRO.PM
    3ms

    ERROR

    82.00
    83
    00

    PRO. a = 2

    ERROR

    1.00

    80.00
    80.40
    81.12

    4.00
    12.96
    3.53

    -0.00

    81.50

    2.25

    0.49

    81.80

    4.84

    2.89

    82.24

    7.62

    0.00

    82.79

    1.46

    5.43

    83.03

    1.06

    0.45

    82.83

    0.03

    83.33
    83.33
    84.00
    84.33
    10

    83

    11

    84

    12

    83

    83.67
    1.00
    83.00
    0.00

    1.30
    82..86
    83.09

    0.01

    83.00

    Totales

    11.12

    39.06

    PRONOSTICO PROMEDIO MOVIL (PPM) 3 meses


    Error

    error al 2

    80 + 82 + 84/ 3 = 82

    83 82

    = 1

    82 + 84 + 83/ 3 = 83

    83 83

    = 0

    0.00

    84 + 83 + 83/ 3 = 83.3

    84 - 83,3 = 0.7

    0.49

    83 + 83 + 84/3 = 83,3

    85 - 83.3 = 1.7

    2.89

    83 + 84 + 85/3 = 84

    84 84 =

    0.00

    Continuar hasta concluirlos

    PRONOSTICO DE SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL (PSE)


    2
    Mes 2
    F2 = Y1
    Error al Cuadrado

    = 80

    a =

    Mes 3
    F3 = aY2 + (1-a) F2
    82 - 80 = ( 2)
    4
    Mes 4
    F4 = aY3 + (1-a)F3 =
    80.4 = 3.6
    12.96

    = 0.2 (82) + (1- 0.2)80

    = 80.4

    0.2 (84) + (1 0.2) 80.4 = 81.12

    84

    Mes 5
    F5 = aY4 + (1 a)F4 = 0.2(83) + (0.8) 81.12 = 81,50
    - 81.5 = 1.5
    2.25

    83

    MES 6
    81,8

    84

    F6 = a Y5 + (1 a) F5 = 0.2 (83) + (o.8) 81.5


    = 2.2
    4.84

    CONTINUAR OPERANDO.

    = 81,8

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