KCH BN BIN I KH HU,

NC BIN DNG
CHO VIT NAM

Nhim v trong CTMTQG ng ph vi BKH

1) Trn c s cc nghin cu c trong v ngoi
nc, u nm 2009 hon thnh vic xy dng cc
kch bn BKH Vit Nam, c bit l nc bin
dng, trn c s cc B, ngnh v a phng xy
dng k hoch hnh ng ca mnh;
2) Cui nm 2010, hon thnh vic cp nht cc kch
bn BKH Vit Nam, c bit l nc bin dng,
cho tng giai on t nm 2010 n nm 2100. Cc
kch bn c y c s khoa hc v thc tin;
3) n nm 2015, tip tc cp nht cc kch bn BKH
Vit Nam, c bit l nc bin dng.

Mc tiu
Mc tiu ca vic xy dng cc kch bn BKH, nc
bin dng cho Vit Nam l a ra nhng thng tin c bn
v xu th bin i kh hu, nc bin dng ca Vit Nam
trong tng lai tng ng vi cc kch bn khc nhau v
pht trin KT - XH ton cu dn n cc tc pht thi
KNK khc nhau. Cc kch bn BKH, nc bin dng s
l nh hng ban u cc B, ngnh, a phng nh
gi cc tc ng c th c ca BKH i vi cc lnh vc
KT - XH, xy dng v trin khai k hoch hnh ng ng
ph vi tc ng tim tng ca BKH trong tng lai.

Cc kch bn BKH ton cu (nhit , lng ma, nc bin

dng..) c xy dng trn c s cc kch bn pht trin KT-XH
quy m ton cu v thng qua l mc pht thi kh nh knh
trong th k 21;
C s xc nh cc kch bn pht thi:
S pht trin quy m ton cu;
Dn s th gii v mc tiu dng;
Chun mc cuc sng v li sng;
Tiu th nng lng v ti nguyn nng lng;
Chuyn giao cng ngh;
Thay i s dng t.

Cc kch bn pht thi kh nh knh

H A1: Kinh t pht trin nhanh; Dn s t nh vo gia th k
XXI, sau gim dn; K thut pht trin rt nhanh; C s h
tng ng u gia cc khu vc trn th gii.
Nhm A1FI: Pht trin nhin liu ha thch.
Nhm A1T: Pht trin nng lng phi ha thch.
Nhm A1B: Cn bng gia ha thch v phi ha thch.

H A2: Dn s tng lin tc trong sut th k XXI; Pht trin KT

manh mn v chm.
H B1: Dn s pht trin nh A1, nh vo gia th k; Thay i
nhanh v cu trc KT tin ti nn kinh t thng tin v dch v,
gim cng vt liu v cng ngh tit kim nng lng, tng
cng nng lng sch; Gii php mi trng KT XH bn vng,
tnh hp l c ci thin nhng khng c cc b sung v kh hu.
H B2: Nhn mnh gii php KT-XH, MT n nh; Dn s tng vi
tc chm hn A2; Pht trin KT va phi, chm hn A1, B1;
Ch trng tnh khu vc, hng ti bo v MT v cng bng XH.

CC KCH BN BIN I KH HU TON CU

IPCC khuyn ngh s dng 6 nhm kch bn:
Kch bn pht thi cao: A1FI, A2
Kch bn pht thi trung bnh: B2, A1B
Kch bn pht thi thp: A1T, B1

C s xy dng kch bn BKH cho VN

Ngoi nc:
1) Bo co nh gi ln th 3 v ln th 4 ca Ban lin
chnh ph v bin i kh hu (IPCC);
2) Sn phm ca m hnh kh hu ton cu vi phn
gii 20 km ca Vin Nghin cu Kh tng Nht Bn
(MRI-AGCM);
3) Bo co v kch bn bin i kh hu cho Vit Nam ca
Trng i hc Oxford, Vng quc Anh.

C s xy dng kch bn BKH cho VN

Trong nc:
1) Kch bn BKH do Ngn hng pht trin chu xy
dng nm 1994 trong bo co v BKH chu ;
2) Kch bn BKH do Vin KTTVMT xy dng cho Thng
bo u tin ca Vit Nam cho Cng c khung ca Lin
Hp Quc v bin i kh hu nm 2003;
3) Kch bn BKH do Vin KTTVMT xy dng nm 2002,
2003 bng phng php nhn t a phng;
4) Kch bn BKH do Vin KHKTTVMT xy dng nm
2005, 2006 bng phn mm MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1 v
phng php Downscaling thng k;

C s xy dng kch bn BKH cho VN

Trong nc (tt):
5) Kch bn BKH do Vin KHKTTVMT xy dng nm
2007 ng gp cho d tho Thng bo ln hai ca Vit
Nam cho UNFCCC v BKH;
6) Cc kch bn BKH do Vin KTTV xy dng nm
2007, 2008 cho cc a phng: Lo Cai, Tha Thin
Hu, ng bng sng Hng;
7) Kch bn BKH do Vin KHKTTVMT xy dng nm
2008 bng MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 v phng php
Downscaling thng k;

C s xy dng kch bn BKH cho VN

Trong nc (tt):
5) Phn tch kt qu ca m hnh MRI-AGCM ca Vin Kh
tng Nht Bn (MRI) v Cc Kh tng Nht Bn
(JMA) do Vin KHKTTVMT phi hp vi (MRI) thc
hin nm 2008.
6) p dng m hnh PRECIS tnh ton xy dng kch
bn bin di kh hu cho khu vc v Vit Nam do Vin
KHKTTVMT phi hp vi SEA START v Trung tm
Hadley ca C quan kh tng Vng Quc Anh thc
hin nm 2008.

Phng php xy dng kch bn BKH cho VN

S dng kt qu t m hnh ton cu;

p dng m hnh ng lc;
p m hnh chi tit ha thng k;
Cc phng php ni, ngoi suy.

Phng php chi tit ha thng k phn tch s liu thc

o v ngoi suy kt qu cho tng lai da theo xu th ca
m hnh ton cu.
u im: Da vo cc s liu v kin thc kh hu a
phng.
Nhc im: Yu cu s liu kh hu thc o trong thi
gian di.

p dng m hnh MRI/AGCM - Nht Bn

Kim nghim:
- S trm s dng: 18
- S liu ma thng v
nhit bnh qun
thng
- Thi on: 1979-2007

p dng m hnh MRI/AGCM - Nht Bn

So snh gia kt qu tnh ton v s liu thc o: Nhit

p dng m hnh MRI/AGCM - Nht Bn

So snh gia kt qu tnh ton v s liu thc o: Lng ma

p dng m hnh MRI/AGCM - Nht Bn

a) Nhit bnh qun nm

Tng trn c
nc
+ 2.0 2.5 oC

+ 2.5 3.0oC

p dng m hnh MRI/AGCM - Nht Bn

b) Lng ma nm

Tng

Gim

p dng m hnh PRECIS - Trung tm Hadley, UK

Min tnh

p dng m hnh PRECIS - Trung tm Hadley, UK

Thi on 1980 1999
Nhit (0C)
Ma (mm)

p dng m hnh PRECIS - Trung tm Hadley, UK

Tng nhit - Kch bn A2

0C

2050-2059

2090-2099

p dng m hnh PRECIS - Trung tm Hadley, UK

Thay i lng ma - Kch bn A2

2050-2059

2090-2099

p dng phn mm MAGICC/SCENGEN

V phng php chi tit ha thng k

24N

Tr ung quc

22N
20N

18N

Q . Hong Sa

16N
Th i Lan

14N
12N

C
mpu chia

10N
8N
6N

TrQ .

Sa
ng

100E 102E 104E 106E 108E 110E 112E 114E

Kch bn BKH cho VN

Cc tiu ch la chn phng php tnh ton xy dng
kch bn bin i kh hu bao gm:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)

Mc tin cy ca kch bn bin i kh hu ton cu;

chi tit ca kch bn bin i kh hu;
Tnh k tha;
Tnh thi s ca kch bn;
Tnh ph hp a phng;
Tnh y ca cc kch bn; v
Kh nng ch ng cp nht.

Kch bn BKH cho VN

Hai kch bn pht thi kh nh knh c chn l
Kch bn pht thi thp (B1);
Kch bn trung bnh ca nhm cc kch bn pht thi va
(kch bn B2);
Kch bn trung bnh ca nhm cc kch bn pht thi cao
(kch bn A2).
Cc kch bn BKH i vi nhit v lng ma c
xy dng cho 7 vng kh hu ca VN: Ty Bc, ng
Bc, ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B, Nam Trung B,
Ty Nguyn v Nam B. Thi k c s so snh l
1980-1999 (cng l thi k dng trong Bo co ln th 4
ca IPCC).

Cc kch bn bin i kh hu
1) V nhit (kch bn trung bnh)

Nhit ma ng tng nhanh hn so vi nhit

ma h tt c cc vng kh hu. Nhit cc
vng kh hu pha Bc tng nhanh hn so vi cc
vng kh hu pha Nam.

Thay i nhit trung bnh nm (oC)

So vi 1980-1999, Kch bn trung bnh (B2)
Vng kh hu

2020 2030 2040

Ty bc
0.5 0.7 1.0
ng bc
0.5 0.7 1.0
B Bc B
0.5 0.7 0.9
Bc Trung B 0.5 0.8 1.1
Nam Trung B 0.4 0.5 0.7
Ty Nguyn
0.3 0.5 0.6
Nam B
0.4 0.6 0.8

Thp k
2050 2060 2070
1.3 1.6 1.9
1.2 1.6 1.8
1.2 1.5 1.8
1.5 1.8 2.1
0.9 1.2 1.4
0.8 1.0 1.2
1.0 1.3 1.6

2080
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.4
1.6
1.4
1.8

2090 2100
2.4 2.6
2.3 2.5
2.2 2.4
2.6 2.8
1.8 1.9
1.5 1.6
1.9 2.0

Cc kch bn bin i kh hu
2) V lng ma
Lng ma ma kh gim hu ht cc vng kh hu
ca nc ta, c bit l cc vng kh hu pha Nam.
Lng ma ma ma v lng ma nm c th tng
tt c cc vng kh hu.

Thay i nhit , lng

ma thng XII-II theo
kch bn thp (B1), trung
bnh (B2), v cao (A2)

Thay i nhit , lng

ma thng III-V theo kch
bn thp (B1), trung bnh
(B2), v cao (A2)

Thay i nhit , lng

ma thng VI-VIII theo
kch bn thp (B1), trung
bnh (B2), v cao (A2)

Thay i nhit , lng

ma thng IX-VI theo
kch bn thp (B1), trung
bnh (B2), v cao (A2)

Thay i nhit , lng

ma nm theo kch bn
thp (B1), trung bnh (B2),
v cao (A2)

Kch bn nc bin dng

Kch bn thp: B1
Kch bn trung bnh: B2
Kch bn cao: A1FI
Kch bn
NBD

Cc mc thi gian ca th k 21
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Thp (B1)

11

17

23

28

35

42

50

57

65

Trung bnh
(B2)
Cao (A1FI)

12

17

23

30

37

46

54

64

75

12

17

24

33

44

57

71

86

100

Ngp theo cc kch bn

KT LUN (1)

1) Cc kch bn BKH, nc bin dng cho Vit

Nam trong th k 21 c xy dng da
theo cc kch bn pht thi KNK thp (B1),
trung bnh (B2) v cao (A2, A1FI).

KT LUN (2)
2) Kch bn pht thi thp (B1) m t th gii pht trin
tng i hon ho theo hng t pht thi, tc tng
dn s thp, cu trc KT thay i theo hng dch v
v thng tin, tha thun quc t v gim pht thi c
thc hin.
Tuy nhin, vi c cu KT khng ng nht gia cc khu
vc, nhn thc rt khc nhau v BKH, quan im rt
khc nhau gia cc nc pht trin v ang pht trin,
m phn quc t v BKH nhm hn ch tng nhit
mc di 2oC gp rt nhiu tr ngi, kch bn
pht thi thp (B1) rt t kh nng tr thnh hin thc.

KT LUN (3)
3) Cc kch bn pht thi cao (A2, A1FI) m t mt th
gii khng ng nht quy m ton cu, c tc
tng dn s rt cao, chm i mi cng ngh (A2)
hoc s dng ti a nng lng ha thch (A1FI). y
l cc kch bn xu nht m nhn loi c th ngh n.
Vi nhng n lc trong pht trin cng ngh thn thin
vi kh hu, m phn gim pht thi, v s chung tay,
chung sc ca ton nhn loi trong lin kt chng li
bin i kh hu, c th hy vng rng nhng kch bn
pht thi cao s c rt t kh nng xy ra.

KT LUN (4)

4) Do tnh phc tp ca BKH v nhng hiu

bit cha tht y ca Vit Nam cng nh
th gii cng vi yu t tm l, kinh t, x hi,
tnh cha chc chn v cc kch bn pht
thi..., kch bn hi ha nht l kch bn
trung bnh c khuyn ngh cc B, ngnh
v a phng lm c s nh gi tc ng
ca BKH v xy dng k hoch hnh ng
ng ph vi BKH.

KT LUN (5)

5) Vo cui th k 21, nhit nc ta c th tng

2,3oC so vi trung bnh thi k 1980-1999. Mc tng
nhit dao ng t 1,6 n 2,8oC cc vng kh hu
khc nhau. Nhit cc vng kh hu pha Bc v
Bc Trung B tng nhanh hn so vi nhit cc
vng kh hu pha Nam. Ti mi vng th nhit
ma ng tng nhanh hn nhit ma h.

KT LUN (6)
6) Tng lng ma nm v lng ma ma ma tt c
cc vng kh hu ca nc ta u tng, trong khi
lng ma ma kh c xu hng gim, c bit l
cc vng kh hu pha Nam. Tnh chung cho c nc,
lng ma nm vo cui th k 21 tng khong 5%
so vi thi k 1980-1999. cc vng kh hu pha
Bc mc tng lng ma nhiu hn so vi cc vng
kh hu pha Nam.

KT LUN (7)

7) Vo gia th k 21 mc nc bin c th dng thm

khong 30cm v n cui th k 21 mc nc bin c
th dng thm khong 75cm so vi thi k 1980 1999.

KT LUN (8)
8) Cc kt qu ny cn vn cn nhiu im cha chc
chn trong xc nh cc kch bn pht trin KT - XH
v km theo l lng pht thi KNK knh trong
tng lai.
khc phc, IPCC khuyn co s dng dung sai cho
cc kch bn. V d dung sai ti a i vi nhit
cui th k 21 l 0,4-0,6oC, i vi lng ma nm l
1-2% v 5% i vi lng ma thng. Mt khc cc
kch bn BKH phi thng xuyn c cp nht v
s liu, kin thc, m hnh v phng php tnh.

KT LUN (9)
(9) Cc kch bn BKH, nc bin dng cho VN s
c cp nht theo l trnh c xc nh trong
CTMTQG:
Cui nm 2010, hon thnh vic cp nht cc
kch bn BKH Vit Nam, c bit l nc bin
dng, cho tng giai on t nm 2010 n nm
2100. Cc kch bn c y c s khoa hc v
thc tin;
n nm 2015, tip tc cp nht cc kch bn
BKH Vit Nam, c bit l nc bin dng.