World Energy Outlook and

Impact on India
India Energy Congress 2015

Prof. Karl Rose

World Energy Council 2014

We are in a challenging place

We are far away from achieving a sustainable energy system:
1.2 billion people have no access to electricity
2.6 billion people have no access to clean cooking facilities
Global population grows from 7 to 9,3 billion people until

2050
Demand for energy will grow by 30-60% until 2050
CO2 emissions will continue to grow
Investment needs until 2050 : between US$ 20,000 und
27,000 billion in infrastructure costs

World Energy Council 2013

World Energy Issues Monitor 2015

3/16

World

uncertainty

WHAT KEEPS ENERGY

LEADERS
AWAKE AT
..
NIGHT
energy prices
.
climate framework

..

critical
electric storage
.
uncertainties
commodity
prices
Middle East dynamics
.

hydrogen economy

.
unconventionals
innovative regulation
nuclear
.
global recession

ccs

sustainable cities
electric vehicles
regional interconnection
Russia
. risks
.
. extreme weather
.
.
smart grids
decentralised
systems
terrorism
capital markets
coal
EU Cohesion
US policy
cyber threats
large scale accidents
.
LNG
energy water nexus
trade barriers
currency uncertainty
energy affordability
.
corruption
talent
biofuels

energy subsidies
renewable energies

energy efficiency

China India

energy poverty
Brazil

..

..

large scale hydro

weak
signals

.
high volatility is the new normal
CO2 uncertainty and storage are the other key
.

need for
action

uncertainties
World Energy Council 2014

World Energy Council 2015

impact

World Energy Issues Monitor 2015

4/16

World

uncertainty

WHAT KEEPS ENERGY

LEADERS
AWAKE AT
..
NIGHT
energy prices
.
climate framework

..

hydrogen economy

critical
electric storage
.
uncertainties
commodity
prices
Middle East dynamics
..
unconventionals
renewable
energy
innovative regulation
nuclear
.
global recessionsubsidies
energies

ccs

sustainable cities
electric vehicles
regional interconnection
Russia
. risks
.
. extreme weather
.
.
smart
grids
decentralised
systems
terrorism
capital markets
coal
EU Cohesion
US policy
cyber threats
large scale accidents
.
LNG
energy water nexus
trade barriers
currency uncertainty
energy affordability
.
corruption
talent
biofuels

energy poverty
Brazil

..

large scale hydro

weak
signals

..

energy efficiency
China India

WHAT KEEPS
ENERGY LEADERS
BUSY AT WORK

.
energy efficiency and renewables
remain priority
.

need for
action

action items
China / India effects remain critical action items
World Energy Council 2014

World Energy Council 2015

impact

World Energy Issues Monitor 2015

5/16

World, time tracking

uncertainty

cooling down o~
.

energy prices
climate framework

..

critical
uncertainties

electric storage
.

commodity prices

Middle East dynamics

.
unconventionals
innovative regulation
nuclear
.

hydrogen economy

ccs

global recession

sustainable cities
electric vehicles
regional interconnection
Russia
. risks
.
.
. extreme weather
.
.
smart grids
decentralised
systems
terrorism
coal
EU Cohesion
US policy
cyber threats
.
LNG
energy water nexus
trade barriers
currency uncertainty
energy affordability
.
corruption
talent
biofuels

..

energy subsidies
renewable energies

large scale
accidents
.

..

capital markets

energy efficiency

China India

energy poverty
Brazil

..

large scale hydro

weak
signals

. global recession
despite reduced concerns for
.

need for
action

capital markets concerns remain of high impact

concerns for large scale accident are cooling down
World Energy Council 2014

World Energy Council 2015

impact

World Energy Issues Monitor 2015

cooling down o~
heating up ~o

uncertainty

6/16

World, time tracking

..
.

energy prices
climate framework

..

electric storage

commodity prices

critical
uncertainties

Middle East dynamics

.
unconventionals
innovative regulation
nuclear
.

energy subsidies
sustainable
renewable energies
global
recession
cities
electric vehicles
interconnection
Russia
decentralised
Russia
.
.
.
.
.
.. risks regional
.
..
..
extreme weather
smart grids
terrorism
coal
EU Cohesion
systems
energy efficiency
US policy capital markets
cyber threats
.
large
LNG
energy
water scale
nexus
trade barriers
currency uncertainty
energy affordability
accidents
..
corruption

hydrogen economy

ccs

..

biofuels

talent

China India

energy poverty
Brazil

..

large scale hydro

weak
signals

tech-innovation (e-storage,.sustainable cities &

.

need for
action

decentralises systems) is seen as more critical

geopolitics (Russia) is higher on agenda
World Energy Council 2014

World Energy Council 2015

impact

uncertainty

World Energy Issues Monitor 2015

7/16

World, time tracking

.
.

energy prices
climate framework

..

critical
uncertainties

electric storage
.

commodity prices

Middle East dynamics

.
innovative regulation
nuclear
.
global recession

hydrogen economy

ccs

electric vehicles
sustainable cities
regional interconnection
Russia
. risks
.
. extreme weather
.
.
smart
grids
decentralised
systems
coal
terrorism
US policy capital markets
large scale accidents
cyber threats
EU Cohesion
.
LNG
energy water nexus
energy affordability
currency uncertainty
trade barriers
.
corruption
talent
biofuels

..

energy subsidies

..

China India

energy
efficiency

energy poverty
Brazil

renewable
energies

..

large scale hydro

weak
signals

.
renewables & energy efficiency
remain robust top
.

need for
action

action items
CCS continues its flight off the map
World Energy Council 2014

World Energy Council 2015

impact

Key energy challenges for India

Economic growth could lead to rising income inequity and

the non-availability of clean, reliable and affordable energy

These factors could in turn hinder social development or
lead to increased social unrest
Key challenges are:

Energy poverty (growing inequality for security and access)

Unmet demand in rural areas
Rapid urbanisation and growth of mega cities
Lack of electrification
Energy reliability (negative effect on economic growth
Climate change (coal production remains key to the energy mix)
Reliance on gas imports

World Energy Council 2014

Challenge:
Electricity supply
Primary energy supply needs to be increased four to five times and

electricity generation capacity/supply by six to seven times up to

2030/31 (as compared to 2003/04), demand could reach 1500 GW by
2050.
Coal is the mainstay of India's energy sector and accounts for more

than 50% of primary commercial energy supply, 69% of TPES comes

from coal based thermal power stations
National Action Plan stipulates 15% renewable contribution to the

electricity generation mix by 2020.

India will need greater capacity and efficiency in all sectors to meet its

energy needs. All options are to be kept open including nuclear

World Energy Council 2014

Challenge:
Climate change
In is his farewell speech, Obama called on India to do more to curb

greenhouse gasses.
India is one of the worlds leading emitters of CO2 and ranks 126 out
of 132 countries on environmental performancethe lowest of any
country in Asia.
India needs to take leadership and identify constructive ways to move
forward on climate change mitigation while not sacrificing the
imperative of poverty alleviation.
Various initiatives are in place, but need to have better integration.

(The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), National

Environment Policy; Prime Ministers Council on Climate Change,
Parliamentary Forum on Global Warming and Climate Change,
Climate Change Action Programme (CCAP), Indian Network for
Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), Twelfth Five Year Plan and
Climate Change)

World Energy Council 2014

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