:

Thailands New Normal

2015

1 ( 1)

New normal

New
normal

1

Tailwinds
Headwinds

1.2%

0.2% (-0.6%
) 2
2.3%
1.7%

3
1

()
2%
10% 2554
4
1%
5% 25545

30% 2543
70% 2556
17%
70% 2557

:



(38% )
(15%)

2554 20%
60%
(85% 46% 2543)






...
62%


12%

1% ()

(15% )

20%
2552 10
(6%
)

(10.7%
)

40%

New normal

: 5% 3%
1-2%
( 1
percentage point)
( 0.6 percentage point)
1.6%6

: 2
4%

Box: 3
: A New Normal for Thai Exports
: 3%
2%
10% 7
5%

2% 2554-2563

(fiscal space) :

(
) 1.6
70%

2 - New Normal

: Thailand Future Analysis

:





CLMV


17%
2544-2556 300

:
(FDI)
(Outward Direct Investment:
ODI)

500
7,800 10



22 186

2556 27
80%
1
3


168 199

8
2

5 9 2 3

new normal

I have been anxious about the Feds whipping our

actual 1.5% donkey in the mistaken belief that it
was a 3% racehorse. The danger was, as I said, that
they would keep on whipping it until either the
donkey turned into a racehorse or dropped dead.
Death from overstimulation
- Jeremy Grantham GMO

10

3
1.
( ) 5%


3%

11
2. (Social
protection)
new normal

3. AEC

2.1
( CLMV)

Box: 3 : A New Normal for Thai Exports

GSP

3
10% 2544-2551
0.9% 2554-2557

1 percentage point
1.5 percentage point 12

40%
2553 1 4

9
2554

300





2554


1/313
12% 4%

 2554
300

...
v. 14

()

: 1 2001 = 100

280

170

()
70

2551

2544

...

300
2557

2554

40

v.
:

= 2.8%

= 10%
()

80

= 15% ()

20

= 0.7%

2544
2001

2551

2557
2557
2014

2554

...
v.
:

46

= 9%

30

= 2%
32

13

12

0.5

2544
2001

2557
2014

2554

: /

462

= 16%

= 4%
296
205

2001
2544

2554

2014
2557

Source: www.trademap.org, IMF, Bank of Thailand, Labor Force Survey, Thailand Future Analysis

2540 17 6 5%
15-60

64% (44%) (51%) (51%)
3
(2557), 7
4
2 300 :
5
(Unit Labor Cost)
6

(Productivity)
7
(forthcoming), 5
8

9
31 2556 ()
10
Fed ( 1.5%) ( 3%)
Fed
11
7
12
30% 20% 25472557
10% 2544-2553 4% 2554-2557
13
1 percentage point 0.25 percentage point

6 percentage point 15% 1 percentage point
14

.. 58
2

-- 3.0 (CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0)

network@thailandff.org
8