BAI GIANG

XAC SUAT THONG KE

(GV: Tran Ngoc Hoi - 2009)

Chu y. Cac bc co tac dung oc lap ngha la neu hai

cach tien hanh co lech nhau t nhat mot bc nao o th
chung se cho ket qua khac nhau.
V du. Cho S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
a) Co bao nhieu so t nhien gom 5 ch so khac nhau tng
oi mot c lay t S, trong o co hai ch so chan va ba ch
so le?

CHNG 1

NHNG NH LY C BAN TRONG

LY THUYET XAC SUAT
1. ON VE GIAI TCH TO HP
1.1. Nguyen ly Cong va Nguyen ly Nhan
1) Nguyen ly Cong. Gia s e mot hien tng xay ra,
co k trng hp ln loai tr lan nhau. Biet rang moi
trng hp ln th j lai co nj trng hp nho. Khi o, so
trng hp nho noi chung e hien tng tren xay ra la:
n = n1 + n2 + + nk.
2) Nguyen ly Nhan. Gia s e hoan thanh mot cong
viec ta phai tien hanh theo trnh t k bc co tac dung oc
lap. Biet rang:
-

Co n1 cach thc hien buc 1.

Sau khi thc hien bc 1 xong, du bang bat c cach

nao, luon luon co mot so lng khong oi n2 cach e
thc hien bc 2.

......................................................................

Cuoi cung, sau khi thc hien xong bc th k-1, du

bang bat c cach nao, luon luon co mot so lng
khong oi nk cach e thc hien bc th k.

Khi o, so cach e hoan thanh cong viec a cho la:

n = n1n2 nk.

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b) Trong cac so cau a), co bao nhieu so cha ch so 2?

Giai. Cac so x gom 5 ch so khac nhau tng oi mot c
lay t S co dang:

x = abcde
trong o a, b, c, d, e S khac nhau tng oi, a 0.
a) e xet cac so x nh tren co hai ch so chan va ba ch
so le, ta chia hai trng hp loai tr lan nhau:
Trng hp 1: a chan
- Chon a {2, 4, 6}. So cach: 3.
- Chon mot ky t trong {b, c, d, e} (e gan them mot ch
so chan). So cach: 4.
- Chon them mot ch so chan trong S\{a} e gan vao ky
t a chon. So cach: 3.
- Chon (co th t) ba ch so le trong S e gan vao ba ky
t con lai. So cach: 6.
Theo nguyen ly nhan, so cac so x trong trng hp nay la:
3.4.3.6 = 216.
Trng hp 2: a le.
- Chon a {1, 3, 5}. So cach: 3.
- Chon (khong ke th t) hai ky t trong {b,c,d,e} (e gan
them hai ch so le). So cach: 6.
- Chon them (co th t) hai ch so le trong S\{a} e gan
vao hai ky t a chon. So cach: 2.
2

- Chon (co th t) hai ch so chan trong S e gan vao hai

ky t con lai. So cach: 12.
Theo nguyen ly nhan, so cac so x trong trng hp nay la:

(x,y,z); (x,z,y); (y,x,z); (y,z,x); (z,x,y); (z,y,x).

2) Cong thc tnh hoan v. Goi Pn la so hoan v cua n
phan t. Ta co cong thc:

3.6.2.12 = 432.
Nh vay, theo nguyen ly cong ta co so cac so x theo yeu
cau la:
216 + 432 = 648
b) Ly luan tng t nh tren nhng S c thay bang S =
{0, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6} ta co so cac so x trong cau a) khong cha ch
so 2 la: 312(?). Suy ra so cac so x trong cau a) co cha ch so
2 la
648 312 = 336.
1.2. Chnh hp
1) nh ngha. Mot chnh hp chap k cua n phan t la
mot bo co th t gom k phan t phan biet c rut ra t n
phan t a cho.

Pn = n!
1.4. To hp
1) nh ngha. Mot to hp chap k cua n phan t la mot
nhom khong co th t gom k phan t phan biet c rut ra t
n phan t a cho.
V du. Cac to hp chap 2 cua 3 phan t x, y, z la:
{x,y}; {x,z}; {y,z}.
Nhan xet. Ta co the xem mot to hp chap k cua n phan
t la mot tap con gom k phan t cua tap hp gom n phan t
o.
2) Cong thc tnh to hp. Goi Cnk la so to hp chap k
cua n phan t. Ta co cong thc:

V du. Cac chnh hp chap 2 cua 3 phan t x, y, z la:

Cnk =

(x,y); (y,x); (x,z); (z,x); (y,z); (z,y).

2) Cong thc tnh chnh hp. Goi Ank la so chnh hp
chap k cua n phan t. Ta co cong thc:

Ank = n.(n 1)...( n k + 1) =

6
=
V du. A20

n!

( n k )!

20!
= 27907200.
14!

Chu y. Tren may tnh co phm chc nang nPr, ta tnh

A206 nh sau:

2 0 nPr 6 =

n!
k !( n k )!

Nhan xet. T ket qua tren ta suy ra so tap con gom k

phan t cua tap hp gom n phan t la Cnk .
6
=
V du. C20

20!
= 38760.
6!14!

Chu y. Tren may tnh co phm chc nang nCr, ta tnh

6
C20
nh sau:

2 0 nCr 6 =

3) nh ly.
a) Cnnk = Cnk vi moi 0 k n;

1.3. Hoan v
1) nh ngha. Mot hoan v cua n phan t la mot chnh
hp chap n cua n phan t o.
V du: Cac hoan v cua 3 phan t x, y, z la:
3

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b) Cnk + Cnk 1 = Cnk+1 vi moi 1 k n

4) Cong thc nh thc Newton.
Vi x, y R va n la so nguyen dng ta co:

( x + y ) n = Cnk x k y n k
k =0

5) Bai toan la chon. Mot lo hang cha N san pham,

trong o co NA san pham loai A va N- NA san pham loai B.
Chon ngau nhien ra n san pham (0 < n < N). Vi moi so
nguyen k thoa 0 k NA, 0 n - k N - NA. Tm so cach
chon ra n san pham, trong o co ung k san pham loai A.
Giai.

e chon ra n san pham, trong o co ung k san phamloai

A ta tien hanh 2 bc:
Bc 1: Chon k san pham loai A t NA san pham loai A.
So cach chon la C Nk A .
Bc 2: Chon n-k san pham loai B t N-NA san pham loai
B. So cach chon la C NnkN A .
Theo nguyen ly nhan ta co so cach ra n san pham, trong
o co ung k san pham loai A la:

V du. Thc hien phep th la tung mot con xuc xac ong
chat 6 mat. Cac bien co co the xay ra la: Xuat hien mat 1
cham; Xuat hien mat co cham chan,
2) Bien co tat yeu, k hieu (Omega), la bien co nhat
thiet phai xay ra khi thc hien phep th.
V du. Khi tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, bien co Xuat
hien mat co so cham khong qua 6 la bien co tat yeu.
3) Bien co bat kha, k hieu , la bien co khong bao gi
xay ra khi thc hien phep th.
V du. Khi tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, bien co Xuat
hien mat co so cham ln hn 6 la bien co bat kha.
4) Bien co ngau nhien la bien co co the xay ra cung co the
khong xay ra khi thc hien phep th. Ta thng dung cac k
t A, A1, A2, B, C, e ch cac bien co ngau nhien.
V du. Khi tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, bien co Xuat
hien mat 1 cham la mot bien co ngau nhien.
Trong cac v du minh hoa sau, khi tung mot con xuc xac 6
mat, ta goi Aj (j = 1,2,,6) la bien co Xuat hien mat j cham .
5) Bien co tong cua hai bien co A va B, k hieu A + B (hay
A B) la bien co nh bi:
A + B xay ra A xay ra hoac B xay ra.
Nh vay, trong mot phep th, bien co tong A + B xay ra khi
va ch khi co t nhat mot trong hai bien co A hoac B xay ra
trong phep th o.
Minh hoa:

C Nk A C NnkN A .
2. nh ngha xac suat
2.1. Phep th va bien co

Ta co the m rong khai niem tong cua n bien co A1, A2,,

An nh sau:

1) Phep th la mot th nghiem c thc hien trong

nhng ieu kien xac nh nao o. Mot phep th co the cho
nhieu ket qua khac nhau, moi ket qua c goi la mot bien co.

A1+ A2 ++ An xay ra Co t nhat 1 trong n bien co A1, A2,, An xay ra.

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V du. Tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, goi A la bien co

Xuat hien mat co so cham khong qua 2 va B la bien co Xuat
hien mat co so cham chan, ta co:
A = A1 + A2
B = A2 + A4 + A6
6) Bien co tch cua hai bien co A va B, k hieu AB (hay
AB) la bien co nh bi:
AB xay ra A xay ra va B xay ra.
Nh vay, trong mot phep th, bien co tch AB xay ra khi va
ch khi ca hai bien co A va B cung xay ra trong phep th o.
Minh hoa:

Ta co the m rong khai niem tch cua n bien co A1, A2,, An

nh sau:
A1A2An xay ra

Tat ca n bien co A1, A2,, An eu xay ra.

V du. Tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, xet cac bien co sau:
A : Xuat hien mat co so cham chan.
B : Xuat hien mat co so cham ln hn hay bang 5.
C: Xuat hien mat co so cham nho hn hay bang 5.
Ta co:

AB = A6

va

ABC = .

7) Bien co s cap la bien co khac bien co bat kha va

khong the phan tch di dang tong cua hai bien co ngau
nhien khac.
Ta co the xem cac bien co s cap nh la cac nguyen t
nho nhat khong the phan chia c na. Mot bien co A bat
ky se la tong cua mot so bien co s cap nao o, ta goi nhng
bien co s cap o thuan li cho bien co A. Nh vay, moi bien
7

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co s cap eu thuan li cho bien co tat yeu, trong khi khong

co bien co s cap nao thuan li cho bien co bat kha.
V du. Khi tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, co tat ca 6 bien
co s cap la Aj (j = 1,2,,6). Goi A la bien co xuat hien mat
co so cham le, ta co:
A = A 1 + A 3 + A 5.
Do do co 3 bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co A la A1, A3, A5.
8) Hai bien co A va B c goi la xung khac neu AB = ,
ngha la A va B khong bao gi cung thi xay ra trong cung
mot phep th.
Minh hoa:

V du. Tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, xet cac bien co :
A : Xuat hien mat co so cham chan.
B : Xuat hien mat 1 cham.
C : Xuat hien mat co so khong qua 2.
Ta co A va B xung khac nhng A va C th khong (AC = A2).
9) Bien co oi lap cua bien co A, k hieu
nh bi
A xay ra A khong xay ra
Minh hoa:

A , la bien co

Nh vay, A va A xung khac, hn na A + A = , ngha la

nhat thiet phai co mot va ch mot trong hai bien co A hoac
A xay ra trong phep th.
V du. Tung mot con xuc xac 6 mat, xet cac bien co:
A : Xuat hien mat co so cham chan.
B : Xuat hien mat co so cham le.
Ta thay ngay B la bien co oi lap cua A.
10) Cac bien co ong kha nang la cac bien co co kha nang
xay ra nh nhau khi thc hien phep th.
V du. Khi tung ngau nhien mot con xuc xac ong chat 6
mat, cac bien co s cap Aj (j = 1,2,,6) la ong kha nang.
2.2. nh ngha co ien cua xac suat.
1) nh ngha. Gia s khi tien hanh phep th, co tat ca
n bien co s cap ong kha nang co the xay ra, trong o co mA
bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co A. T so

mA
c goi la
n

xac suat cua bien co A, k hieu la P(A). Nh vay,

D bat kha nen P(D) = 0/6 = 0.

E tat yeu nen P(E) = 6/6 = 1
2) Cong thc xac suat la chon
Xet mot lo hang cha N san pham, trong do co NA san
pham loai A, con lai la loai B. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra
n san pham (0< n < N). Vi moi 0 k NA thoa 0 n - k
N-NA, xac suat e trong n san pham chon ra co ung k san
pham loai A la:

p n(k) =

So bien co s cap thuan li cho A

Tong so bien co s cap co the xay ra

V du. Tung mot con xuc xac ong chat 6 mat. Khi o co
tat ca 6 bcsc ong kha nang co the xay ra la A1, A2,..., A6
(mat 1, 2,..., 6). Xet cac bien co sau:
A: Xuat hien mat co so cham chan;
B: Xuat hien mat co so cham 5;
C: Xuat hien mat co so cham 4;
D: Xuat hien mat co so cham < 1;
E: Xuat hien mat co so cham < 10
Ta co
A = A2 + A4 + A6 nen P(A) = 3/6 = 0,5;
B = A5 + A6 nen P(B) = 2/6 = 1/3;
C = A1 + A2 + A3+ A4 nen P(C) = 4/6 = 2/3;
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nk

Chng minh. Ta xem moi cach chon la mot bien co s cap.

Khi o co tat ca C nN bien co s cap ong kha nang co the
xay ra.
Goi A la bien co co ung k san pham loai A trong n san
pham chon ra. Theo ket qua cua Bai toan la chon, ta co so
bien co s cap thuan li cho A la C kN CnNkN .
A

T ay, theo nh ngha, ta co xac suat cua bien co A la:

CN CN N
n
CN
k

P(A) =

CN CN N
n
CN

P(A) =

nk

V du. Mot lo hang cha 20 san pham gom 12 san pham

tot va 8 san pham xau. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra 5
san pham. Tnh xac suat e c 3 san pham tot va 2 san
pham xau.
Giai. Ap dung Cong thc xac suat la chon vi N = 20, NA =
12, n = 5, k = 3, ta co xac suat can tm la:

C12C8 = 220.28 = 0, 3973.

5
C20 15504
3

p5 (3) =

Tren may tnh co phm chc nang nCr ta bam:

10

1 2 nCr 3 8 nCr 2 : 2 0 nCr 5 =

3) Han che cua nh ngha co ien

nh ngha co ien nh tren ch ap dung uc khi tong so
bien co s cap co the xay ra la hu han. Hn na, cac bien co
o eu phai ong kha nang. Cac ieu kien nay khong de co
trong thc te. V vay ngi ta con a ra nh ngha xac suat
bang thong ke nh sau:
2.3. nh ngha xac suat bang thong ke
1) nh ngha. Gia s khi tien hanh n phep th oc lap
trong nhng ieu kien nh nhau, bien co A xay ra mA lan. T
so

mA
c goi la tan suat xuat hien cua bien co A. Thc
n

nghiem thong ke chng minh c rang khi so phep th n

kha ln, tan suat cua bien co A luon dao ong quanh mot gia
tr khong oi p (0 p 1). Gia tr p o c goi la xac suat
cua bien co A, k hieu P(A). Nh vay,
P(A) = lim
n

mA
n

2) V du. a) Trong thong ke dan so mot a phng,

ngi ta tong ket c xac suat e mot em be s sinh la trai
(hay gai) xap x bang 1/2.
b) Khi tung mot ong xu ong chat 2 mat nhieu lan,
ngi ta thay rang xac suat xuat hien mat sap = Xac suat
xuat hien mat nga = 1/2.
2.4. nh ngha xac suat bang hnh hoc
1) Bien co tat yeu c bieu dien bi cac iem ben
trong mot ng cong khep kn:

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2) Moi iem trong bieu dien mot bien co s cap.

3) Moi tap con A cua bieu dien mot bien co.
Ta hnh dung nh sau: Dung au but cham ngau nhien
vao mot iem ben trong , neu cham trung iem nao th xem
nh bien co s cap o xay ra, neu iem o thuoc A th bien co
A xay ra. Vi cach nhn o, kha nang mot bien co A xay ra
tuy thuoc vao o ln cua dien tch cua A so vi dien tch cua .
T ay, ta nh ngha xac suat cua A nh sau:
S(A)
P(A) =
,
S()
trong o S(A), S() lan lt la dien tch cua A va cua .
2.5. Tnh chat cua xac suat
nh ngha co ien cua xac suat va nh ngha xac suat
bang thong ke la tng thch nhau, ngoai ra ngi ta con
nh ngha xac suat bang tien e, nhng nh ngha nay
mang am tnh toan hoc nen chung toi khong e cap en
trong bai giang nay. Chung ta thay rang du c nh ngha
bang phng phap nao th xac suat cung co cac tnh chat sau:
1) Vi moi bien co A ta co 0 P(A) 1.
2) P() = 1.
3) P() = 0.
2.6. Y ngha cua xac suat
T cac nh ngha cua xac suat ta thay xac suat chnh la
mot so o mc o thng xuyen xay ra cua mot bien co trong
phep th. Noi nom na la xac suat o kha nang khach quan e
bien co xay ra. Gia s bien co A co xac suat P(A)= p. Ta co:
1) Khi tien hanh n phep th vi n u ln, ta co the ket
luan so lan bien co A xay ra la m lan vi m/n p. ieu
nay khong ung neu n khong u ln.
2) Khi tien hanh rat nhieu th nghiem, moi th nghiem
gom n phep th, so lan trung bnh e bien co A xay ra trong
mot th nghiem la np lan.

12

3. Cong thc cong xac suat

3.1. Cong thc cong xac suat th nhat
Vi A va B la hai bien co xung khac, ta co

P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B)

M rong: Vi A1, A2, , An la
tng oi, ta co:

n bien co xung khac

P(A1 + A2 + + An) = P(A1) + P(A2) ++ P(An).

3.2. He qua. Vi A la mot bien co bat ky, ta co

P(A) = 1 P(A)
3.3. Cong thc cong xac suat th hai
Vi A va B la hai bien co bat ky, ta co:

c) M rong tong quat cua Cong thc cong xac suat

th hai kha phc tap. Chang han, vi A, B, C la ba bien co
bat ky, ta co:
P(A+B+C) = P((A+B)+C) = P(A+B) + P(C) - P((A+B)C)
= P(A) + P(B) P(AB) + P(C) P(AC + BC)
= P(A) + P(B) P(AB) + P(C) P(AC) P(BC) + P(ACBC).
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(AB) - P(BC) P(AC)+ P(ABC).
3.5. Chng minh cong thc cong th hai
Gia s co tat ca n bien co s cap ong kha nang co the xay ra,
trong o:
- Co mA bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co A.
- Co mB bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co B.
- Co mAB bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co AB, ngha
la thuan li cho ca A lan B.
Khi o so bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co A + B la
mA + mB - mAB
Minh hoa:

P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)

3.4. Nhan xet.
a) Cong thc cong xac suat th nhat la trng hp
ac biet cua Cong thc cong xac suat th hai v vi A, B la
hai bien co xung khac ta co AB = nen P(AB) = 0 va Cong
thc th hai cho ta:
P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).
b) He qua 3.2 c suy trc tiep t cong thc cong
xac suat th nhat v vi A la bien co bat ky ta co hai bien
co A va A la xung khac va A + A = nen cong thc th
nhat cho ta:

1 = P() = P( A + A ) = P( A) + P( A ).
T o suy ra P( A ) = 1 P ( A).

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(ta phai tr mAB v so bien co thuan li cho AB a c tnh

en hai lan, mot lan trong mA va mot lan trong mB).
Suy ra xac suat cua A + B la
P(A + B) =

m A + m B m AB m A m B m AB
=
+

= P(A) + P(B) P(AB)

n
n
n
n

V du 1. Mot lo hang cha 15 san pham gom 10 san

pham tot va 5 san pham xau. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra
4 san pham. Tnh xac suat e trong 4 san pham chon ra co:
14

a)
b)

So san pham tot khong t hn so san pham xau.

t nhat 1 san pham xau.

Giai. Goi Aj (j = 0,1,,4) la bien co co j san pham tot va

(4-j) san pham xau co trong 4 san pham chon ra. Khi o A0,
A1,,A4 xung khac tng oi va theo cong thc tnh xac suat la
chon vi N = 15, NA = 10, n = 4 ( ay loai A la loai tot), ta
co:
j

4 j

5
P ( A j ) = C10 C
4

C15

T o ta tnh c:

5
100
450
; P ( A1 ) =
; P( A2 ) =
1365
1365
1365
600
210
; P( A4 ) =
P( A3 ) =
.
1365
1365
P( A0 ) =

a) Goi A la bien co so san pham tot khong t hn so san

pham xau. Ta co A xay ra khi va ch khi so san pham tot, xau
co trong 4 san pham chon ra lan lt la : 4, 0 hoac 3, 1 hoac
2, 2 . Do o
A = A 4 + A 3 + A 2.
T ay do tnh xung khac tng oi cua A2, A3, A4, Cong
thc cong th nhat cho ta xac suat cua A la
P(A) = P(A 4 ) + P(A 3 ) + P(A 2 ) =

210
600
450
+
+
= 0, 9231 .
1365 1365 1365

b) Goi B la bien co co t nhat 1 san pham xau trong 4 san

pham chon ra. Khi o, bien co oi lap B la bien co khong co
san pham xau nao trong 4 san pham chon ra nen B = A4.
Suy ra xac suat cua B la

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P( B) = 1 P ( B ) = 1 P ( A4 ) = 1

210
= 0,8462 .
1365

V du 2. Mot lp hoc co 100 sinh vien, trong o co 60

sinh vien gioi Toan, 70 sinh vien gioi Anh van va 40 sinh
vien gioi ca hai mon Toan va Anh van. Chon ngau nhien mot
sinh vien cua lp. Tm xac suat e chon c sinh vien gioi t
nhat mot trong hai mon Toan hoac Anh van.
Giai. Goi:
- A la bien co sinh vien c chon gioi mon Toan.
- B la bien co sinh vien c chon gioi mon Anh van.
Khi o
- AB la bien co sinh vien c chon gioi ca hai mon Toan va
Anh van.
- A + B la bien co sinh vien c chon gioi t nhat mot trong
hai mon Toan hoac Anh van.
Do o theo Cong thc cong th hai ta co xac suat e sinh
vien c chon gioi t nhat mot trong hai mon Toan hoac
Anh van la:

P( A + B) = P ( A) + P ( B) P( AB) =

60 70 40
+

= 0,9.
100 100 100

4. Xac suat co ieu kien va Cong thc nhan xac suat

4.1. Xac suat co ieu kien
Xac suat co ieu kien cua bien co A biet bien co B a
xay ra, k kieu P(A/B), la xac suat cua bien co A nhng c
tnh trong trng hp bien co B a xay ra roi.
Minh hoa hnh hoc:

16

S(A)
.
S()
S(AB)
- Xac suat co ieu kien P(A / B) =
.
S(B)

- Xac suat thong thng P(A) =

V du. Thay mot con xuc xac ong chat 6 mat. Xet cac
bien co sau:
a) A la bien co xuat hien mat co so cham chan.
b) B la bien co xuat hien mat co so cham le.
c) C la bien co xuat hien mat co so cham nho hn hay
bang 4.
d) D la bien co xuat hien mat co so cham ln hn hay
bang 4.
Khi o
- P(A/B) = 0 v khi B a xay ra th ch co 3 bien co s
cap ong kha nang co the xay ra la xuat hien cac mat 1, 3, 5
cham, trong o khong co bien co s cap nao thuan li cho A.
- P(A/C) = 2/4 = 0,5 v khi C a xay ra th ch co 4
bien co s cap ong kha nang co the xay ra la xuat hien cac
mat 1, 2, 3, 4 cham, trong o ch co 2 bien co s cap thuan
li cho A la cac mat 2, 4 cham.
- P(A/D) = 2/3 v khi D a xay ra th ch co 3 bien co
s cap ong kha nang co the xay ra la xuat hien cac mat 4, 5,
6 cham, trong o ch co 2 bien co s cap thuan li cho A la
xuat hien cac mat 4, 6 cham.
Nhan xet. Trong v du tren ta co xac suat cua bien co A
la P(A) = 3/6 = 0,5. Do o
P(A/B) < P(A);
P(A/C) = P(A);
P(A/D) > P(A).
ieu o cho thay xac suat co ieu kien cua bien co A co the
nho hn, co the bang nhng cung co the ln hn xac suat
thong thng P(A). ac biet, ta thay xac suat e bien co A
xay ra la 0,5 khong phu thuoc vao viec biet hay cha biet
bien co C a xay ra. Ta noi bien co A oc lap vi bien co C
theo nh ngha sau:

17

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4.2. Tnh oc lap

Neu P(A/B) = P(A), ngha la s xuat hien cua bien co B
khong anh hng en xac suat cua bien co A, th ta noi A oc
lap vi B.
4.3. Cong thc nhan xac suat th nhat
Neu bien co A oc lap vi bien co B th B cung oc
lap vi A va ta co
P(AB) = P(A) P(B).
M rong. Vi A1, A2, , An la n bien co oc lap tng
oi, ngha la vi moi 1 i j n , Ai va Aj oc lap, ta co:
P(A1A2 An) = P(A1)P(A2) P(An).
4.4. Cong thc nhan xac suat th hai
Vi A, B la hai bien co bat ky, ta co
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A) = P(B)P(A/B).
M rong. Vi A1, A2, , An la

n bien co bat ky , ta co:

P(A1A2 An) = P(A1)P(A2/ A1) P(An/ A1 A2 An-1).

Chang han:
P(ABC) = P(A)P(B/A)P(C/AB).
P(ABCD) = P(A)P(B/A)P(C/AB) P(D/ABC),...
4.5. Nhan xet. Cong thc nhan th nhat la trng hp
ac biet cua cong thc nhan th hai v khi A oc lap vi B,
ta co P(A/B) = P(A) va cong thc nhan th hai cho ta:
P(AB) = P (A)P(B/A) = P(B)P(A/B) = P(B)P(A).
T o
P(B/A) = P(B).
Suy ra B oc lap vi A va P(AB) = P(A)P(B).
4.6. Chng minh cong thc nhan xac suat th hai

18

Gia s co tat ca n bien co s cap ong kha nang co the

xay ra, trong o:
- Co mB bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co B
- Co mAB bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co AB, ngha
la thuan li cho ca A lan B.
Xet trng hp bien co B a xay ra roi. Khi o:
- Tong so bien co s cap ong kha nang co the xay ra
trong trng hp nay la mB v khong tnh en cac bien co s
cap khong thuan li cho B.
- So bien co s cap thuan li cho bien co A trong hp nay
la mAB v ch tnh cac bien co s cap thuan li cho A trong
so cac bien co thuan li cho B.
Minh hoa:

b) Gia s a chon c 2 san pham tot va 2 san pham

xau. Tnh xac suat a chon c 1 san pham tot va 1 san
pham xau t lo I.
Giai.

Goi Ai , Bi (i = 0, 1, 2) lan lt la cac bien co co i san

pham tot va (2 - i) san pham xau co trong 2 san pham c
chon ra t lo I, lo II. Khi o
- A0, A1, A2 xung khac tng oi va ta co:
0

Suy ra xac suat co ieu kien cua A khi biet B xay ra la

P( A / B) =

- B0, B1, B2 xung khac tng oi va ta co:

P(AB) = P(BA) = P(A)P(B/A).

- Ai

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7
P( B0 ) = C 8 C
=
2

V du. Co hai lo hang, moi lo cha 15 san pham, trong

o lo I gom 10 san pham tot, 5 san pham xau; lo II gom 8
san pham tot va 7 san pham xau. Chon ngau nhien t moi lo
2 san pham.
a) Tnh xac suat e trong 4 san pham chon ra co 2 san
pham tot va 2 san pham xau.

19

10
;
105

C15
1
1
50
5
;
P( A1 ) = C10 C
=
2
105
C15
2
0
45
5
P( A2 ) = C10 C
=
.
2
C15 105

m AB m AB mB P ( AB)
:
=
=
.
mB
n
n
P( B)

T ay ta suy ra P(AB) = P(B)P(A/B).

Cuoi cung, thay oi vai tro cua A va B, chu y rang
AB = BA, ta co:

5
P( A0 ) = C10 C
=
2

va

Bj

21
;
105

C15
1
1
56
7
;
P( B1 ) = C 8 C
=
2
105
C15
2
0
28
7
P( B2 ) = C 8 C
=
.
2
C15 105

oc lap.

20

a) Goi A la bien co chon c 2 san pham tot va 2 san

pham xau. Ta thay A xay ra khi va ch khi, so san pham tot
co trong 2 san pham lay t lo I, II lan lt la: 0, 2 hoac 1,
1 hoac 2, 0 nh trong bang sau:
B0
A0 0
A1 1
A2 2

B1
1
2
3

B2
2
3
4

ngha la:
A = A0 B2 + A1B1 +
Do tnh xung khac tng oi, Cong thc cong
P(A) = P(A0 B2) + P(A1B1) +
T ay, do tnh oc lap , cong thc nhan
cho ta:
P(A) =

P(A 0 )P(B2 )

A 2 B 0.
xac suat cho ta:
P(A2 B0).
xac suat th nhat

+ P(A 1 )P(B1 ) + P(A 2 )P(B0 )

P( A1 A) = P( A1 B1 ) = P( A1 ) P( B1 ) =
Do o xac suat can tm la:

P(A1/A) =

50 56
.
= 0,2540.
105 105

P(A1A) 0,2540
=
= 0,6957.
P(A)
0,3651

5. Cong thc xac suat ay u va Cong thc Bayes

5.1. He bien co ay u va xung khac tng oi
Cac bien co A1, A2,, An c goi la mot he bien co ay
u va xung khac tng oi neu hai tnh chat sau c thoa:
1) A1 + A2 + + An = ;
2) 1 i j n, AiAj = ,
ngha la cac bien co A1, A2,, An xung khac tng oi va nhat
thiet phai co mot va ch mot bien co Aj nao o xay ra khi
thc hien mot phep th bat ky.
Minh hoa:

10 28
50 56
45 21
=
+
+
= 0, 3651.
.
.
.
105 105 105 105 105 105

b) Gia s a chon c 2 san pham tot va 2 san pham

xau. Khi o bien co A a xay ra. Do o xac suat e chon
c 1 san pham tot va 1 san pham xau t lo I trong trng
hp nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/A).
Theo cong thc nhan xac suat th hai, ta co

P(A1A) = P(A)P(A1/A) .
Suy ra

P(A1/A) =

P(A1A)
.
P(A)

Mat khac A1A = A1B1 va hai bien co A1 va B1 oc lap nen

theo cong thc nhan th nhat ta co:

21

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Nhan xet.
- Vi A la mot bien co bat ky, ta co A, A la mot he ay
u, xung khac tng oi.
- Vi A1, A2,, An la mot he ay u va xung khac tng oi
ta co P(A1) + P(A2) + + P(An) = 1.
V du. Co hai hop, moi hop cha 10 vien bi, trong o hop
I gom 6 bi o, 4 bi trang; hop II gom 8 o, 2 trang.T moi
hop, chon ra 2 bi. Xet cac bien co sau:
- Ai (i = 0, 1,2 ) la bien co co i bi o va 2-i bi trang co
trong 2 bi lay t hop I.

22

- Bj (j = 0, 1,2 ) la bien co co j bi o va 2-j bi trang co

trong 2 bi lay t hop II.
Khi o ta co cac he sau ay eu la ay u, xung khac tng
oi:
a) A0 , A1 , A2.
b) B0 , B1 , B2.
c) A0B0, A0B1, A0B2, A1B0, A1 B1, A1B2, A2 B0, A2B1 , A2B2.
d) A0B0, A0B1 + A1B0, A0B2 + A1B1 + A2B0, A1B2+ A2B1, A2B2.
5.2. Cong thc xac suat ay u
Cho A1, A2,, An la mot he bien co ay u va xung khac
tng oi. Khi o, vi A la mot bien co bat ky, ta co:
P(A) =

Chu y rang do tnh xung khac tng oi cua A1, A2, , An, ta
suy ra cac bien co AA1, AA2, , AAn cung xung khac tng oi
va cong thc cong xac suat cho ta:
P(A) = P(AA1 + AA2 + + AAn) = P(AA1) + P(AA2 )+ + P(AAn).

P(A )P(A/A )
j

j =1

5.3. Cong thc Bayes

Vi cac gia thiet nh trong 5.2, ta co vi moi 1 k n:
P(A k /A) =

Minh hoa:

P(A k )P(A/A k )
P(A k )P(A/A k )
= n
P(A)
P(A j )P(A/A j )
j =1

5.4. Chng minh Cong thc xac suat ay u va Cong

thc Bayes.
V A1, A2,, An la mot he ay u va xung khac tng oi
nen ta co:

Mat khac, theo cong thc nhan xac suat ta co

nen

P(AAj) = P(Aj)P(A/Aj) vi j = 1,2,,n,

P(A) = P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/A2) + + P(An)P(A/An).

Ta a chng minh cong thc xac suat ay u.

Cuoi cung, theo cong thc nhan xac suat ta co vi moi
1 k n,

nen

P(AAk) = P(A)P(Ak/A) = P(Ak)P(A/Ak)

P(A k /A) =

P(A k )P(A/A k )
.
P(A)

Bay gi ch can dung cong thc xac suat ay u ta co:

= A1 + A2 + + An .

P(A k /A) =
Suy ra

A = A = A(A1 + A2 + + An) = AA1 + AA2 + + AAn.

P(A k )P(A/A k )
n

P(A j )P(A/A j )
j=1

Cong thc Bayes c chng minh.

23

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24

V du.Co hai lo hang, moi lo cha 15 san pham, trong

o lo I gom 10 san pham tot, 5 san pham xau; lo II gom 8
san pham tot va 7 san pham xau. Chon ngau nhien t lo I
2 san pham bo sang lo II, sau o t lo II lay ra 2 san pham.
a) Tnh xac suat e trong 2 san pham chon ra t lo II
co 1 san pham tot va 1 san pham xau.
b) Gia s a chon c 1 san pham tot va 1 san pham
xau t lo II. Tnh xac suat a chon c 1 san pham tot va 1
san pham xau t lo I.
Giai.

17 san pham, trong o co 8 san pham tot va 9 san pham xau.

Do o theo Cong thc tnh xac suat la chon, ta co xac suat e
chon c 1 san pham tot va 1 san pham xau t lo II trong
trng hp nay la:
1

9
P( A / A0 ) = C 8 C
=
2

C17

Tng t, ta co:

72
136
1

8
P( A / A1 ) = C 9 C
=
2

72
136

C17
1
1
70
7
P( A / A2 ) = C10 C
=
2
136
C17

Goi
- A la bien co chon c 1 san pham tot va 1 san pham
xau t lo II.
- Aj (j = 0, 1, 2) la bien co co j san pham tot va (2 - j) san
pham xau co trong 2 san pham c chon ra t lo I.
Khi o A0, A1, A2 la he ay u, xung khac tng oi va
ta co:
0

5
P( A0 ) = C10 C
=
2

10
;
105

C15
1
1
50
5
P( A1 ) = C10 C
=
;
2
105
C15
2
0
45
5
P( A2 ) = C10 C
=
.
2
C15 105

a) Yeu cau cua bai toan la tnh xac suat

Theo Cong thc xac suat ay u ta co:

P(A).

P(A) = P(A0) P(A/A0) + P(A1) P(A/A1) + P(A2) P(A/A2).

Xet P(A/A0). Khi A0 a xay ra, ta a chon c 2 san pham
xau t lo I e bo sang lo II va nh vay trong lo II luc o co

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Suy ra xac suat cua bien co A la

P(A) = P(A 0 )P(A / A 0 ) + P(A1 )P(A / A1 ) + P(A 2 )P(A / A 2 )
=

10 72
50 72
45 70
.
+
.
+
.
= 0, 5231
105 136 105 136 105 136

b) Gia s a chon c 1 san pham tot va 1 san pham

xau t lo II. Khi o bien co A a xay ra. Do o xac suat e
chon c 1 san pham tot va 1 san pham xau t lo I trong
trng hp nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/A).
Ap dung Cong thc Bayes va s dung ket qua va tm
c cau a) ta co:

50 72
.
P(A1 )P(A/A1 ) 105 136
P(A1/A) =
=
= 0,4819.
P(A)
0,5231
6. Cong thc Bernoulli
6.1. Cong thc Bernoulli. Tien hanh n phep th oc lap
trong nhng ieu kien nh nhau. Gia s moi phep th, bien
26

co A hoac xay ra vi xac suat p khong oi, hoac khong xay ra

vi xac suat q = 1 p. Khi o, vi moi 0 k n, ta co Cong
thc Bernoulli tnh xac suat e trong n phep th, bien co A
xay ra ung k lan la:

Chu y rang theo cong thc nhan xac suat, ta co xac suat cua
bien co trong moi trng hp a phan tch tren eu bang
p2q (= pkqn-k ). Do o, theo cong thc cong xac suat ta co xac
suat cua bien co B la:
2

Pn (k) = Cnp k q n k
k

ngha la

P ( B ) = C n p k q nk .
k

6.2. He qua. Vi cac gia thiet nh trong 6.1, ta co:

1) Xac suat e trong n phep th bien co A khong xay ra
lan nao la qn.
2) Xac suat e trong n phep th bien co A luon luon xay
ra la pn.
6.3. Chng minh cong thc Bernoulli
e cac ban de theo doi, chung toi xet trng hp n = 3
va k = 2 (Trng hp tong quat c ly luan hoan toan tng
t). Goi
- Aj ( j = 1, 2, 3) la bien co Trong phep th th j, A xay
ra. Khi o A j la bien co Trong phep th th j, A khong
xay ra va ta co:

P ( A j ) = p; P ( A j ) = q = 1 p .
- B la bien co Trong n = 3 phep th, A xay ra ung
k = 2 lan.
Ta thay bien co B xay ra khi va ch khi A xay ra ung
k = 2 lan trong n = 3 phep th

nen

co

C 3 = 3 (= C n)

va ta co Cong thc Bernoulli.

V du. Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le san pham
loai tot la 60%. Cho may san xuat 5 san pham. Tnh xac
suat e trong 5 san pham thu c co:
a) 3 san pham tot.
b) t nhat 3 san pham tot.
Giai. Goi Ak (k = 0,1,,5) la bien co co k san pham tot
va (5-k) san pham xau co trong 5 san pham thu c.
Ta xem viec cho may san xuat 1 san pham la thc hien
mot phep th. Nh vay ta co 5 phep th oc lap c thc
hien trong nhng ieu kien nh nhau, trong moi phep th
bien co A: San pham thuoc loai tot xay ra vi xac suat p =
60% = 0,6 va A khong xay ra vi xac suat q = 1 p = 0,4.
Do o, ap dung cong thc Bernoulli vi n = 5, p = 0,6, q = 0,4
ta co:

P ( Ak ) = C n p k q nk = C 5 (0,6) k (0,4) 5k
k

trng hp co the xay ra la:

1) A xay ra phep th 1, 2 va khong xay ra phep th
th 3. Trng hp nay ng vi bien co A1 A2 A3 .
2) A xay ra phep th 2, 3 va khong xay ra phep th
th 1. Trng hp nay ng vi bien co A1 A2 A3 .
3) A xay ra phep th 1, 3 va khong xay ra phep th
th 2. Trng hp nay ng vi bien co A1 A2 A3 .
Do o:

P ( B ) = C 3 p 2 q.

B = A1 A2 A3 + A1 A2 A3 + A1 A2 A3 .

27

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a) Xac suat e trong 5 san pham thu c co 3 san pham

tot la:
3

P ( A3 ) = C 5 (0,6) 3 (0,4) 2 = 0,3456.

b) e trong 5 san pham thu c co t nhat 3 san pham
tot th so san pham tot phai la 3, 4 hoac 5. Do o, xac suat
e trong 5 san pham thu c co t nhat 3 san pham tot
chnh la:

28

P(A 3 + A 4 + A 5 ) = P(A 3 ) + P(A 4 ) + P(A5 ) = 0, 3456 + C5 (0, 6)4 (0, 4) + (0.6)5

4

= 0, 68256.

6.4. Chu y mot so trng hp s dung cong thc

Bernoulli
1) Mot lo hang cha rat nhieu san pham vi t le san
pham loai tot la p. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra n san
pham. Khi o ta co the tnh xac suat e trong n san pham
thu c co k san pham loai tot theo cong thc Bernoulli. Tuy
nhien, neu lo hang cha N san pham vi t le san pham
loai tot la p th trong o se co Np san pham tot, (N - Np)
san pham khong tot, va khi o e tnh cac xac suat tren, ta
phai dung cong thc tnh xac suat la chon.
V du 1. Mot lo hang cha rat nhieu san pham vi t le
san pham loai tot la 80%. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra
10 san pham. Tnh xac suat e trong 10 san pham thu c
co 6 san pham loai tot.
Giai. Dung cong thc Bernoulli vi n = 10; p = 0,8 ta co
xac suat can tm la:
6
P(A 6 ) = C10(0, 8)6 (0, 2)4 = 0, 08808 .
V du 2. Mot lo hang cha 50 san pham vi t le san
pham loai tot la 80%. Chon ngau nhien t lo hang ra 10
san pham. Tnh xac suat e trong 10 san pham thu c co
6 san pham loai tot.
Giai. Dung cong thc xac suat la chon vi N = 50;
NA = 50.80% = 40; n = 10, ta co xac suat can tm la:

C40C10 = 0, 078469
10
C50
6

P(A 6 ) =

V du 3. Co hai lo hang. Lo I cha 30 san pham vi t le

loai tot la 60%. Lo II cha rat nhieu san pham vi t le loai
tot la 70%. Chon ngau nhien t moi lo 3 san pham. Tnh
xac suat e trong 6 san pham thu c so san pham tot cua lo
II khong t hn so san pham tot cua lo I.

29

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Giai. - Goi A la bien co trong 6 san pham thu c so

san pham tot cua lo II khong t hn so san pham tot cua lo I.
- Goi Aj, Bj (j = 0, 1, 2, 3) lan lt la cac bien co co j san
pham tot va 3 j san pham xau co trong 3 san pham lay t lo
I, lo II.
Ta co:
A = A0 + A1 B0 + A2B2 + A2B3 + A3B3.
T gia thiet ta suy ra trong lo I co 30.60% = 18 san pham tot
va 12 san pham xau. Do o, theo cong thc xac xuat la chon
ta co:

C18C12 = 220 ;
3
C30 4060
1
2
1188
C
18C12
=
P(A1 ) =
;
3
C30 4060
2
1
1836
C
18C12
=
P(A 2 ) =
;
3
C30 4060
3
0
816
C
18C12
=
P(A 3 ) =
.
3
C30 4060
0

P(A 0 ) =

Dung cong thc Bernoulli vi n = 3; p = 0,7 ta co:

P(B0 ) = C3(0,7)0 (0, 3)3 = 0, 027 P(B0 ) = 0, 973

0

P(B2 ) = C3(0,7)2 (0, 3)1 = 0, 441;

2

P(B3 ) = C3(0,7)3 (0, 3)0 = 0, 343.

3

Chu y rang cac bien co A0; A1 B0 ; A2B2; A2B3; A3B3 xung khac
tng oi va cac Ai, Bj oc lap nen theo cong thc Cong va
cong thc nhan xac suat ta co:
P(A) = P(A0) + P(A1)( B0 )+ P(A2)P(B2)+ P(A2)P(B2) + P(A2)P(B3).
T o tnh c xac suat can tm la: P(A) = 0,7624.

30

2) Mot xa thu ban n vien an vao mot muc tieu. Xac suat
trung cua moi vien la p khong oi. Khi o ta co the tnh xac
suat e trong n vien ban ra co k vien trung theo cong thc
Bernoulli.
3) Thay n lan mot con xuc xac ong chat 6 mat. Khi o ta
co the tnh xac suat e trong n lan thay, mat 3 cham xuat
hien ung k lan theo cong thc Bernoulli (vi p =1/6).
4) Thay n lan mot ong xu ong chat 2 mat. Khi o ta co
the tnh xac suat e trong n lan thay, mat sap xuat hien
ung k lan theo cong thc Bernoulli (vi p = 1/2).

Tom tat noi dung chnh cua chng 1

1) Cong thc tnh xac suat la chon:
nk

C C
pn ( k ) = N n N N
CN
A

ieu kien ap dung: Co tong so N phan t, trong o co NA loai

A va N-NA loai B. Dung tnh xac suat e trong n phan t
chon ra co ung k phan t loai A.

P(A1 + A2 + + An) = P(A1) + P(A2) ++ P(An).

- Vi A, B la hai bien co bat ky, ta co:
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).
Cong thc Nhan xac suat:
- Vi A1, A2, , An la n bien co oc lap tng oi, ta co:
P(A1A2 An) = P(A1)P(A2) P(An).
- Vi A1, A2, , An la n bien co bat ky, ta co:
P(A1A2 An) = P(A1)P(A2/A1) P(An/ A1A2 An-1).
Ta thng s dung cac cong thc tren khi co the phan tch
bien co a cho di dang tong cua nhieu bien co xung khac
tng oi, moi bien co la tch cua mot so bien co.
4) Cong thc Xac suat ay u va Cong thc Bayes:
Vi A1, A2,, An la mot he bien co ay u va xung khac tng
oi, ta co:
Cong thc xac suat ay u:
P(A) =

P(A )P(A/A ).
j =1

Cong thc Bayes: Vi

2) Cong thc Bernoulli:

Pn ( k ) = C n p q
k

nk

P(A k /A) =

1 k n,

P(A k )P(A/A k )
P(A k )P(A/A k )
= n
P(A)
P(A j )P(A/A j )
j=1

ieu kien ap dung: Co n phep th oc lap, c lap i lap lai

trong nhng ieu kien nh nhau; moi phep th, bien co A
xay ra vi xac suat p khong oi va khong xay ra vi xac suat
q = 1-p. Dung tnh xac suat e trong n phep th, bien co A
xay ra ung k lan.
3) Cong thc Cong va Nhan xac suat:
Cong thc Cong xac suat:
- Vi A1, A2, , An la n bien co xung khac tng oi, ta
co:
31

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Ta thng s dung cac cong thc tren khi co the tnh xac suat
cua bien co A a cho neu cho biet them mot so ieu kien. Da
vao cac ieu kien o e xay dng mot he ay u va xung khac
tng oi.
5) Xac suat co ieu kien:
Xac suat co ieu kien cua bien co A biet bien co B a xay
ra, k hieu P(A/B), la xac suat cua bien co A nhng c tnh
trong trng hp bien co B a xay ra roi. e tnh xac suat co
ieu kien P(A/B) thng co 2 cach:

32

Cach 1: Dung cong thc Nhan xac suat P(AB) = P(B)P(A/B),

suy ra
P(AB)
P(A/B) =
.
P(B)
Trong trng hp nay, ta can tnh P(AB) va P(B) e tm c
P(A/B).
Cach 2: Dung cong thc Bayes bang cach xay dng mot he
bien co ay u, xung khac tng oi sao cho A= Ak vi k nao o.
Khi o
P(A k )P(B/A k )
P(A/B)=P(A k /B) =
.
P(B)
Trong trng hp nay, ta can tnh P(B) bang cach dung cong
thc xac suat ay u:

P(B) =

P(A )P(B/A ).
j

j =1

BAI TAP CHNG 1

Bai 1.1: Co ba khau sung I, II va III ban oc lap vao mot muc
tieu. Moi khau ban 1 vien. Xac suat ban trung muc tieu cua ba
khau I, II va III lan lt la 0,7; 0,8 va 0,5. Tnh xac suat e
a) co 1 khau ban trung.
b) co 2 khau ban trung.
c) co 3 khau ban trung.
d) t nhat 1 khau ban trung.
e) khau th hai ban trung biet rang co 2 khau trung.
Bai 1.2: Co hai hop I va II moi hop cha 10 bi, trong o hop I
gom 9 bi o, 1 bi trang; hop II gom 6 bi o, 4 bi trang. Lay
ngau nhien t moi hop 2 bi.
a) Tnh xac suat e c 4 bi o.
b) Tnh xac suat e c 2 bi o va 2 bi trang.
c) Tnh xac suat e c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang.
d) Gia s a lay c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang. Hay tm xac suat
e bi trang co c cua hop I.

33

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Bai 1.3: Mot lo hang cha 10 san pham gom 6 san pham tot
va 4 san pham xau. Khach hang kiem tra bang cach lay ra
tng san pham cho en khi nao c 3 san pham tot th dng
lai.
a) Tnh xac suat e khach hang dng lai lan kiem tra th
3.
b) Tnh xac suat e khach hang dng lai lan kiem tra th
4.
b) Gia s khach hang a dng lai lan kiem tra th 4. Tnh
xac suat e lan kiem tra th 3 khach hang gap san
pham xau.
Bai 1.4: Mot hop bi gom 5 bi o, 4 bi trang va 3 bi xanh co
cung c. T hop ta rut ngau nhien khong hoan lai tng bi mot
cho en khi c bi o th dng lai. Tnh xac suat e
a) c 2 bi trang, 1 bi xanh va 1 bi o.
b) khong co bi trang nao c rut ra.
Bai 1.5: San pham X ban ra th trng do mot nha may gom
ba phan xng I, II va III san xuat, trong o phan xng I
chiem 30%; phan xng II chiem 45% va phan xng III
chiem 25%. T le san pham loai A do ba phan xng I, II va
III san xuat lan lt la 70%, 50% va 90%.
a) Tnh t le san pham loai A noi chung do nha may san xuat.
b) Chon mua ngau nhien mot san pham X th trng. Gia
s a mua c san pham loai A. Theo ban, san pham ay co
kha nang do phan xng nao san xuat ra nhieu nhat?
c) Chon mua ngau nhien 121 san pham X (trong rat nhieu
san pham X) th trng.
1) Tnh xac suat e co 80 san pham loai A.
2) Tnh xac suat e co t 80 en 85 san pham loai A.
Bai 1.6: Co ba ca hang I, II va III cung kinh doanh san
pham Y. T le san pham loai A trong ba ca hang I, II va III
lan lt la 70%, 75% va 50%. Mot khach hang chon nhau
nhien mot ca hang va t o mua mot san pham

34

a) Tnh xac suat e khach hang mua c san pham loai A.

b) Gia s a mua c san pham loai A. Theo ban, kha
nang ngi khach hang ay a chon ca hang nao la
nhieu nhat?
Bai 1.7: Co hai hop I va II moi hop cha 12 bi, trong o hop I
gom 8 bi o, 4 bi trang; hop II gom 5 bi o, 7 bi trang. Lay
ngau nhien t hop I 3 bi roi bo sang hop II; sau o lay ngau
nhien t hop II 4 bi.
a) Tnh xac suat e lay c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang t hop II.
b) Gia s a lay c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang t hop II. Tm xac
suat e trong 3 bi lay c t hop I co 2 bi o va 1 bi trang.
Bai 1.8: Co ba hop moi hop ng 5 vien bi trong o hop th
nhat co 1 bi trang, 4 bi en; hop th hai co 2 bi trang, 3 bi
en; hop th ba co 3 bi trang, 2 bi en.
a) Lay ngau nhien t moi hop mot bi.
1) Tnh xac suat e c ca 3 bi trang.
2) Tnh xac suat c 2 bi en, 1 bi trang.
3) Gia s trong 3 vien lay ra co ung 1 bi trang.Tnh xac
suat e bi trang o la cua hop th nhat.
b) Chon ngau nhien mot hop roi t hop o lay ngau nhien
ra 3 bi. Tnh xac suat c ca 3 bi en.
Bai 1.9: Co 20 hop san pham cung loai, moi hop cha rat
nhieu san pham, trong o co 10 hop cua x nghiep I, 6 hop cua
x nghiep II va 4 hop cua x nghiep III. T le san pham tot
cua cac x nghiep lan lt la 50%, 65% va 75%. Lay ngau
nhien ra mot hop va chon ngau nhien ra 3 san pham t hop
o.
a) Tnh xac suat e trong 3 san pham chon ra co ung 2 san
pham tot.
b) Gia s trong 3 san pham chon ra co ung 2 san pham tot.
Tnh xac suat e 2 san pham tot o cua x nghiep I.

35

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Bai 1.10: Co 10 sinh vien i thi, trong o co 3 thuoc loai gioi,

4 kha va 3 trung bnh. Trong so 20 cau hoi thi qui nh th
sinh vien loai gioi tra li c tat ca, sinh vien kha tra li
c 16 cau con sinh vien trung bnh c 10 cau. Goi ngau
nhien mot sinh vien va phat mot phieu thi gom 4 cau hoi
th anh ta tra li c ca 4 cau hoi. Tnh xac suat e sinh
vien o thuoc loai kha.
Bai 1.11: Co hai hop I va II, trong o hop I cha 10 bi trang
va 8 bi en; hop II cha 8 bi trang va 6 bi en. T moi hop
rut ngau nhien 2 bi bo i, sau o bo tat ca cac bi con lai cua
hai hop vao hop III (rong). Lay ngau nhien 2 bi t hop III.
Tnh xac suat e trong 2 bi lay t hop III co 1 trang, 1 en.
Bai 1.12: Co hai hop cung c. Hop th nhat cha 4 bi trang 6
bi xanh, hop th hai cha 5 bi trang va 7 bi xanh. Chon ngau
nhien mot hop roi t hop o lay ra 2 bi th c 2 bi trang.
Tnh xac suat e vien bi tiep theo cung lay t hop tren ra lai
la bi trang
Bai 1.13 : Mot lo hang gom a san pham loai I va b san pham
loai II c ong gi e gi cho khach hang. Ni nhan kiem
tra lai thay that lac 1 san pham. Chon ngau nhien ra 1 san
pham th thay o la san pham loai I. Tnh xac suat e san
pham that lac cung thuoc loai I.
Bai 1.14: Co 3 hop phan, trong o hop I cha 15 vien tot va 5
vien xau, hop II cha 10 vien tot va 4 vien xau, hop III cha
20 vien tot va 10 vien xau. Ta gieo mot con xuc xac can oi.
Neu thay xuat hien mat 1 cham th ta chon hop I; neu xuat
hien mat 2 hoac 3 cham th chon hop II, con xuat hien cac
mat con lai th chon hop III. T hop c chon lay ngau
nhien ra 4 vien phan. Tm xac suat e lay c t nhat 2 vien
tot.

36

Bai 1.15: Co hai kien hang I va II. Kien th nhat cha 10

san pham, trong o co 8 san pham loai A. Kien th hai cha
20 san pham, trong o co 4 san pham loai A. Lay t moi kien
2 san pham. Sau o, trong 4 san pham thu c chon ngau
nhien 2 san pham. Tnh xac suat e trong 2 san pham chon
ra sau cung co ung 1 san pham loai A.
Bai 1.16: Mot xa thu ban 10 vien an vao mot muc tieu. Xac
suat e 1 vien an ban ra trung muc tieu la 0,8 . Biet rang:
Neu co 10 vien trung th muc tieu chac chan b diet. Neu co t
2 en 9 vien trung th muc tieu b diet vi xac suat 80%. Neu
co 1 vien trung th muc tieu b diet vi xac suat 20%.
a) Tnh xac suat e muc tieu b diet.
b) Gia s muc tieu a b diet. Tnh xac suat co 10 vien trung.
Bai 1.17: Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le san pham loai
A la 60%. Mot lo hang gom 10 san pham vi t le san pham
loai A la 60%. Cho may san xuat 2 san pham va t lo hang
lay ra 3 san pham.
a) Tnh xac suat e so san pham loai A co trong 2 san pham
do may san xuat bang so san pham loai A co trong 3 san
pham c lay ra t lo hang.
b) Gia s trong 5 san pham thu c co 2 san pham loai A.
Tnh xac suat e 2 san pham loai A o eu do may san xuat.
Bai 1.18: Co hai lo hang, moi lo cha 60% san pham tot,
trong o lo I cha 15 san pham, lo II cha rat nhieu san
pham. T lo II lay ra 3 san pham bo vao lo I, sau o t lo I
lay ra 2 san pham.
a)
Tnh xac suat lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I.
b)
Tnh xac suat lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I, trong o
sp tot co trong lo I t trc.
c)
Gia s a lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I. Tnh xac suat
a lay c 2sp tot, 1sp xau t lo II.

37

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AP SO BAI TAP CHNG 1

1.1: a) 0,22
b) 0,28
c) 0,97
1.2: a) 0,2667
b) 0,2133 c) 0,4933
1.3: a) 0,1667
b) 0,2857 c) 0,3333
1.4: a) 0,0455
b) 0,5556
1.5: a) 0,66
b) II, III
c1) 0,076
1.6: a) 0,65
b) II
1.7: a) 0,2076
b) 0,5030
1.8: a1) 0,048
a2) 0,464 a3) 0,1034
1.9: a) 0,4050
b) 0,4630
1.10: 0,3243
1.11: 0,5080
1.13: (a-1)/(a+b-1)
1.14: 0,9334.
1.16: a) 0,8215
b) 0,1307
1.17: a) 0,3293
b) 0,0508
1.18: a) 0,5035
b) 0,4235.
--------------

38

d) 0,851
d) 0,1352

c2) 0,3925

b) 0,1667
1.12: 0,2766
1.15: 0,5687.

c) 0,4318

-------------