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COOK THE BOOKS 08.26.15 8:00 PM ET

WRITTENBY

Shane
Harris

NancyA.
Youssef

Spies: Obamas Brass Pressured Us to

Downplay ISIS Threat
U.S. intelligence analysts keep saying that the Americanled campaign
against ISIS isnt going so well. Their bosses keep telling them to think
again about those conclusions.
SeniormilitaryandintelligenceofficialshaveinappropriatelypressuredU.S.
terrorismanalyststoaltertheirassessmentsaboutthestrengthoftheself
proclaimedIslamicState,threesourcesfamiliarwiththemattertoldTheDaily
Beast.Analystshavebeenpushedtoportraythegroupasweakerthanthe
analystsbelieveitactuallyis,accordingtothesesources,andtopaintanoverly
rosypictureabouthowwelltheU.S.ledefforttodefeatthegroupisgoing.
Reportsthathavebeendeemedtoopessimisticabouttheefficacyofthe
Americanledcampaign,orthathavequestionedwhetheraU.S.trainedIraqi
militarycanultimatelydefeatISIS,havebeensentbackdownthroughthe
chainofcommandorhaventbeensharedwithseniorpolicymakers,several
analystsalleged.
Inotherinstances,authorsofsuchreportssaidtheyunderstoodthattheir
conclusionsshouldfallwithinacertainspectrum.Asaresult,theyself
censoredtheirownviews,theysaid,becausetheyfeltpressuretonotreach
conclusionsfaroutsidewhatthoseabovethemapparentlybelieved.
ThephraseIuseisthepoliticizationoftheintelligencecommunity,retired
Lt.Gen.MichaelFlynn,theformerdirectoroftheDefenseIntelligenceAgency,

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2 Flanagan P

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3 These Fas

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4 Donald Tru

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5 Heres How

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toldTheDailyBeastwhendescribingwhatheseesasaconcertedpushin
governmentoverthepastseveralmonthstofindinformationthattellsa
preferredstoryabouteffortstodefeatISISandotherextremistgroups,
includingalQaeda.Thatshere.Anditsdangerous,Flynnsaid.
AtU.S.CentralCommand,whichisinchargeofairstrikesagainstISISinIraq
andSyria,analystshavebeenfrustratedformonthsthatastheirreportsmake
theirwayupthechain,seniorofficerschangethemtoadheremorecloselyto
theadministrationsline.ThreeU.S.officialsandanalystsspoketoTheDaily
Beastontheconditionofanonymitytodiscusssensitiveinternalmatters.
Theanalystssaiditwasunclearwhowasleadingthepressuretoadjusttheir
assessments,whichmorethanonereferredtoasspinning.Somecalledita
resultofaclimateoftheculturetheircommanderscreate.Howsuchreports
travelfromCENTCOMheadquarterstotheseniorreachesofthegovernment
andthemilitary,andwhoreadsthemalongtheway,varies.Somereportsgo
directlytotheWhiteHouse.Moreoften,theygothroughseveralinternal
organizationsandcheckstodeterminewhatinformationismostusefultotop
officials.
Twodefenseofficialssaidthatsomefelt
thecommanderforintelligenceat

The phrase I
use is the
politicization
of the
intelligence
community.
Thats here.
And its
dangerous.

CENTCOMfailedtokeeppolitical
pressuresfromWashingtonfrom
bearingonlowerlevelanalystsat
commandheadquartersinTampa,
Florida.Thatpressure,whiledescribed
assubtleandnotovert,isnevertheless
clear,theanalystssaid:Assessmentson
ISISshouldcomportwiththe
leadershipconsensus,thatis,top
policymakersview,thattheU.S.led
campaignagainstthegroupispaying
dividends.
Aprocesshasdeveloped,these
individualssaid,bywhichofficialsfrom
theDefenseIntelligenceAgency,aswell

astheOfficeoftheDirectorofNationalIntelligence,aretryingtoachieve
somethingclosetoconsensusamongtheseveralintelligenceagenciesthat
weighinonthethreatofISISandtheU.S.effortsagainstit.
TheCENTCOManalystssaytheyveconcludedthatthecampaignisntgoing
well,butthattheseniorofficialswantallreportsonISIStoseeeyetoeyeand
toavoidanalysesthatreachwidelydifferentconclusions.
Ithinkitcomesfromtheseniorsthatinteractwiththepolicyfolks[meaning
senioradministrationofficials]anditfiltersitswaydown,oneoftheanalysts
said.
Inthepast,theCENTCOMintelligencecommanderbufferedtheanalystsfrom
outsidepressurebutinthelasttwoyearsthatprotectionhasbeenlessreliable,

theofficialsaid.
Yougetthispressure.Itsaverysubtleapproachbutitiseffective,hesaid.
CENTCOMdeclinedto
commentaboutthespecific
chargeofpressureputon
analysts.Similarconcernshave
reportedlybeenraisedwithin
theDefenseIntelligence
Agency,whichprovidesanalysis
bothformilitarycommanders
andcivilianleaders.
TheDefenseDepartments
inspectorgeneralis
investigatingallegationsthatmilitaryofficialshaveskewedintelligence
assessmentsabouttheantiISIScampaign,TheNewYorkTimesreportedon
Tuesday.Acomplaintwaslodgedwiththeinspectorgeneralbyatleastone
civiliananalystattheagency,whoclaimedthatCENTCOMofficialswere
reworkingtheconclusionsofintelligenceassessmentspreparedforsenior
leaders,includingPresidentObama,theTimesreported.
Imnotsurprisedbythisinvestigation,Flynnsaid.Henotedthatsenior
militaryandObamaadministrationofficialshavebeentoooptimisticintheir
publicassessmentsabouthowthewaragainstISISisfaring.
WhileFlynnnotedthathehadnoparticularinformationaboutthecurrent
inspectorgeneralinvestigationwhichmultiplesourcesconfirmedisactive
hesaidthatonlyveryseniorofficialswouldhavethepowertochange
intelligenceassessmentsorleadthemtobealteredfromtheiroriginalform.
DIAanalysisonextremistgroupsintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricahas
typicallybeenmorehardhittingandhasnottriedtopaintapreferredpicture
abouthowthefightisgoingagainstISISandalQaeda,Flynnsaid.
Itsnottryingtosugarcoatandgiveyoualotofmaybesandprobably,
Flynnsaid.Its,Hereswhatwebelieve.
Currentanalystssaidthattheresatendencyinsomereportingtoleaveasort
ofescapeclause,thatwhilethecurrenteffortstodefeatISISaregoingwell,
theycouldbesetbackatanymoment.Thatkindofhedgingappearsdesigned
toprotectseniorofficialsfromsubsequentaccusationsthatthey
underestimatedISISsstrength,whileatthesametimeallowingthemtosay
thatthegroupisontheropes.
Separatefromanalystscomplaints,therehavebeensignswithinthemilitary
andthePentagonthatdifferentgroupsofanalystswerereachingdifferent
conclusions.Inpublicstatementsandtestimony,ArmyGeneralMartin
Dempsey,thechairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,hasbeennotablyless
optimisticaboutdevelopmentsinthewaragainstISISthanseniormembersof
theObamaadministrationhavebeen.

Theprocessofcoordinatingintelligenceassessmentsissupposedtotakeinto
accountthedifferentviewsofthemorethanadozenindividualagenciesthat
mightweighinonaparticulartopic.Inthewakeofa2002National
IntelligenceEstimatethatconcludedIraqhadanactiveweaponsofmass
destructionprogramwhenitdidntandthatformedthebasisfortheU.S.
invasion,theintelligenceagenciesaresupposedtoemphasizecompetingviews,
particularlywhenoneorafewagenciesreachaconclusionthatisatoddswith
theprevailingview.
Theintelligencecommunityroutinelyproducesawiderangeofsubjective
assessmentsrelatedtothecurrentsecurityenvironment,CENTCOM
spokesmanColonelPatrickRydertoldTheDailyBeast,inresponseto
questionsabouttheinspectorgeneralreport.Priortopublication,itis
customaryfortheIC[intelligencecommunity]tocoordinatetheseintelligence
assessments.Morespecifically,membersoftheICaretypicallyprovidedan
opportunitytocommentondraftassessments.
Butitsultimatelyuptotheprimaryagencythatwrotetheinitialreportasto
whetheritwillincorporaterecommendedchangesoradditions,Rydersaid.
Further,themultisourcenatureofourassessmentprocesspurposelyguards
againstanysinglereportoropinionundulyinfluencingleadersanddecision
makers.
Howpreciselyonereportcouldinfluenceaseniorleader,ofcourse,isahighly
subjectivematter.Topleadersconsiderdifferentassessmentsduringplanning
anddecisionmaking,alongwithinsightsprovidedbysubordinate
commandersandotherkeyadvisers,Rydersaid.
Thisisntthefirsttimeanalystshaveallegedthattheirterrorismreportingwas
skewedforpoliticalpurposes.
WhetheralQaedawasdestroyedornolongerafactorweweretoldtocease
anddesistthatkindofanalysisfollowingtheU.S.raidthatkilledOsamabin
LadeninPakistanin2011,retiredArmyColonelDerekHarvey,aformersenior
intelligenceofficialatDIA,toldTheDailyBeast.
AlQaedacorewasdeclaredallbutdeadbytheObamaadministration,
Harveysaid.ButbasedonmaterialfoundindocumentsthatU.S.forces
retrievedfrombinLadenscompoundinPakistan,theorganizationinour
viewwasmorediverseandstrongerinmanywaysthanithadeverbeenbefore,
despitealQaedacorebeinghithard.
Intheyearsfollowingtheraid,itbecameclearerthatalQaedamaintainedthe
ambitionandthecapacitytothreatenattacksinsidetheUnitedStates.
IntelligenceofficialsnowsaythatalQaedasbranchinYemenandagroupof
fightersdispatchedtoSyrialastyearhavesoughttosmuggleexplosivedevices
thatcantbedetectedbyairlinesecuritysystemsontocommercialpassenger
jets.
withadditionalreportingbyMichaelWeiss

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