Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Lampiran Data
Lampiran Data
Lampiran Data
Periode
Observasi
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
Tabungan
Swasta Riil
(milyar
rupiah)
349346.716
4
358137.990
6
395678.429
437584.668
8
486874.358
3
538382.479
7
584852.727
9
633031.012
8
690104.696
Investasi
Swasta Riil
(milyar
rupiah)
Pendapatan
Nasional
Disposibel
Riil
(milyar
rupiah)
107190.7
678933.7
84658.6
693151.8
110978.3
732658.6
116546.4
768276.2
132819.4
812376.1
154892.7
870610.4
178245.3
928400.1
182767.2
993143.6
188666.5
1051156
Tingkat
Suku Bunga
Deposito
(12 Bulan)
Riil (%)
Tingkat
Inflasi
(%)
8.18967193
2
13.0721275
4
9.87322834
6
8.27380952
4
10.5103280
7
4.72787245
7
5.82677165
4
9.22619047
6
10.4164396
8.0835604
12.2134453
8
10.6800947
9
13.3860805
9
13.5673585
6.38655462
2
7.81990521
3
9.41391941
4
7.53264144
Pendapatan
Nasional
(PDB) Riil
(milyar
rupiah)
Rasio
Investasi
Pemerintah
terhadap
PDB
622920.940
3
638262.268
3
675764.605
3
709049.015
5
750031.377
9
0.08345018
4
0.08497290
7
0.05810296
6
0.05763865
5
0.06520418
5
0.06436857
2
0.07025809
6
0.06970685
6
0.08086264
805962.782
864328.899
6
924400.544
4
984115.865
Lampiran
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
6
753651.047
9
518760.090
2
577519.146
3
653997.197
1
687910.623
8
197723.5
1114825.2
245261.8
1193870.3
309551.6
1291415.6
326743.6
1387533.3
340471.1
1441845.9
5
6.61755915
3
6
9.68244084
7
4.48453023
8.51546977
5.55715406
7
8.74110898
7
9.56986938
2
35.8643849
8
7.28688330
5
6.85062875
9
12.55
1998
740782.182
1
240885.8
1217702
1999
792968.069
7
202957.1
1198647
2000
292208.7
241732.1
1273857.2
253425.7
1257443.6
1.65
256115.3
1293426.6
5.47778765
248425.5
1318017.3
5.5
2001
2002
2003
346710.000
5
448997.355
6
661904.496
1
5
0.07314067
7
0.06764923
6
9.44284593
3
7.95889101
3
6.73013061
8
7
1048045.81
5
1127067.06
6
1219713.39
6
1315070.38
7
1376877.40
1
57.6643849
8
1196138.57
8
0.07090488
9
20.3131167
1205601.06
3
9.34937124
1
1264920
0.03887526
4
0.02040840
5
11.8784976
3
6.58602473
8
1308571.53
2
1355789.95
2
1416880.12
0.05356428
0.05748744
9
0.06785562
0.02850489
0.02380403
9
0.03115639
4
Lampiran
Lampiran 2. Data Yang Diestimasi
Periode
Observasi
LN S
LN I
LN GNDI
1984
12.7638201
648
11.5823647
701
13.4282787
582
1985
12.7886736
397
11.3463819
772
13.4490043
018
1986
12.8883571
124
11.6170899
657
13.5044351
152
1987
12.9890254
947
11.6660447
56
13.5519045
829
1988
13.0957613
776
11.7967455
897
13.6077186
893
1989
13.1963245
154
11.9504878
981
13.6769498
538
1990
13.2791153
473
12.0909159
705
13.7412180
611
13.3582746
933
12.1159684
908
13.8086305
449
1991
Variabel
LN R
8.18967193
2
13.0721275
4
9.87322834
6
8.27380952
4
LN P
LN Y
10.5103280
7
13.3421748
881
4.72787245
7
13.3665045
567
5.82677165
4
13.4236000
774
9.22619047
6
13.4716799
364
8.0835604
13.5278703
218
6.38655462
2
13.5997928
442
7.81990521
3
13.6697086
462
9.41391941
4
13.7369007
463
10.4164396
12.2134453
8
10.6800947
9
13.3860805
9
LN GIY
2.48350542
396
2.46542281
448
2.84553856
651
2.85356184
261
2.73023162
499
2.74312977
741
2.65557973
186
2.66345660
Lampiran
1992
13.4445985
993
12.1477361
851
13.8654010
689
1993
13.5326847
387
12.1946248
691
13.9242081
793
1994
13.1591968
013
12.4100814
904
13.9927109
406
1995
13.2664968
746
12.6428800
777
14.0712495
39
1996
13.3908583
447
12.6969310
445
14.1430381
243
1997
13.4414142
012
12.7380855
258
14.1814347
257
1998
13.5154619
098
12.3920782
412
14.0124760
339
1999
13.5835382
346
12.2207499
056
13.9967039
787
12.5852235
52
12.3955853
671
14.0575600
209
2000
13.5673585
5
6.61755915
3
7.53264144
6
13.7994989
188
9.68244084
7
13.8624378
595
8.51546977
13.9351292
997
9.44284593
3
14.0141264
678
7.95889101
3
14.0894007
484
6.73013061
8
14.1353287
403
57.6643849
8
13.9946090
747
20.3131167
14.0024888
08
9.34937124
1
14.0505194
37
4.48453023
5.55715406
7
8.74110898
7
9.56986938
2
35.8643849
8
7.28688330
5
6.85062875
9
163
2.51500330
445
2.61537061
008
2.69341921
785
2.92687285
097
2.85618863
327
2.69037306
636
2.64641589
154
3.24739711
751
3.89180845
Lampiran
2001
12.7562439
761
12.4428259
624
14.0445913
291
2002
13.0147722
772
12.4533830
127
14.0728055
337
2003
13.4028765
588
12.4228982
808
14.0916391
199
1.65
5.47778765
12.55
14.0844466
666
10.0222123
5
14.1198948
328
6.58
14.1639679
138
4.02
318
3.55767962
748
3.73790000
682
3.46873578
997
Lampiran
Lampiran 3.
intercept)
Variabel Ln S
ADF Test Statistic
-3.160126
1% Critical Value*
-2.7158
5% Critical Value
-1.9627
10% Critical Value
-1.6262
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNS,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 19:41
Sample(adjusted): 1987 2003
Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
D(LNS(-1))
-1.293866
0.409435 -3.160126
D(LNS(-1),2)
0.208519
0.275255
0.757550
R-squared
0.521533 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.489635 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.308056 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
1.423479 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
-3.041022 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
1.998492 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0065
0.4605
0.016966
0.431211
0.593061
0.691087
16.35012
0.001061
Variabel Ln I
ADF Test Statistic
-2.550927
1% Critical Value*
-2.7158
5% Critical Value
-1.9627
10% Critical Value
-1.6262
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNI,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 20:27
Sample(adjusted): 1987 2003
Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
D(LNI(-1))
-0.670780
0.262955 -2.550927
D(LNI(-1),2)
0.077218
0.204602
0.377407
R-squared
0.353569 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.310474 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.138513 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
0.287787 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
10.54740 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
1.796354 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0222
0.7112
-0.017717
0.166807
-1.005577
-0.907552
8.204342
0.011819
Lampiran
Variabel Ln GNDI
ADF Test Statistic
-2.028032
1% Critical Value*
-2.7158
5% Critical Value
-1.9627
10% Critical Value
-1.6262
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNGNDI,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 19:44
Sample(adjusted): 1987 2003
Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
D(LNGNDI(-1))
-0.525508
0.259122 -2.028032
D(LNGNDI(-1),2)
-0.006108
0.254427 -0.024006
R-squared
0.272496 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.223996 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.062798 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
0.059153 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
23.99516 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
2.028356 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0607
0.9812
-0.002153
0.071287
-2.587666
-2.489641
5.618439
0.031603
Variabel Ln R
ADF Test Statistic
-5.435252
1% Critical Value*
-2.7158
5% Critical Value
-1.9627
10% Critical Value
-1.6262
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNR,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/20/05 Time: 22:06
Sample(adjusted): 1987 2003
Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
D(LNR(-1))
-2.170745
0.399383 -5.435252
D(LNR(-1),2)
0.448297
0.230456
1.945261
R-squared
0.799984 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.786649 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
12.73679 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
2433.388 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
-66.31448 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
2.248769 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0001
0.0707
0.102418
27.57485
8.036998
8.135023
59.99393
0.000001
Lampiran
Variabel Ln P
ADF Test Statistic
-4.806010
1% Critical Value*
-2.7158
5% Critical Value
-1.9627
10% Critical Value
-1.6262
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNP,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 19:46
Sample(adjusted): 1987 2003
Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
D(LNP(-1))
-1.913533
0.398154 -4.806010
D(LNP(-1),2)
0.381502
0.238728
1.598062
R-squared
0.735573 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.717944 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
14.25794 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
3049.332 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
-68.23240 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
2.147288 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0002
0.1309
-0.375963
26.84660
8.262636
8.360661
41.72637
0.000011
Variabel Ln Y
ADF Test Statistic
-1.622984
1% Critical Value*
-2.7158
5% Critical Value
-1.9627
10% Critical Value
-1.6262
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNY,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 20:32
Sample(adjusted): 1987 2003
Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
D(LNY(-1))
-0.373665
0.230233 -1.622984
D(LNY(-1),2)
-0.088265
0.254890 -0.346285
R-squared
0.215654 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.163365 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.056121 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
0.047244 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
25.90596 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
2.048450 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.1254
0.7339
-0.000766
0.061357
-2.812466
-2.714441
4.124222
0.060389
Variabel Ln GIY
Lampiran
ADF Test Statistic
-3.240595
1% Critical Value*
-2.7158
5% Critical Value
-1.9627
10% Critical Value
-1.6262
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNGIY,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 20:35
Sample(adjusted): 1987 2003
Included observations: 17 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
D(LNGIY(-1))
-1.100476
0.339591 -3.240595
D(LNGIY(-1),2)
0.151079
0.251301
0.601187
R-squared
0.501969 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.468766 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.272588 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
1.114563 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
-0.961568 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
1.956583 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0055
0.5567
0.038193
0.373993
0.348420
0.446445
15.11858
0.001456
Lampiran 4.
Hasil Estimasi Model Kointegrasi
Tabungan Swasta
Dependent Variable: LNS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/05 Time: 22:31
Sample: 1984 2003
Included observations: 19
Excluded observations: 1
Variable
Coefficient
C
-0.433064
LNGNDI
0.920263
LNR
0.290282
LNP
0.036568
D1
-0.328119
R-squared
0.600377
Adjusted R-squared
0.486199
S.E. of regression
0.211886
Sum squared resid
0.628539
Log likelihood
5.423729
Durbin-Watson stat
1.863772
Lampiran 5.
Std. Error
t-Statistic
3.373813 -0.128360
0.237741
3.870859
0.129822
2.236005
0.017996
2.032010
0.157241 -2.086724
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.8997
0.0017
0.0422
0.0616
0.0557
13.15459
0.295600
-0.044603
0.203933
5.258249
0.008468
Lampiran
Model Kointegrasi Tabungan Swasta
obs
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Actual
12.7638
12.7887
12.8884
12.9890
13.0958
13.1963
13.2791
13.3583
13.4446
13.5327
13.1592
13.2665
13.3909
13.4414
13.5835
12.5852
12.7562
13.0148
13.4029
Lampiran 6.
Fitted
12.9192
12.8626
12.8723
12.9890
13.0655
13.1133
13.1859
13.3718
13.3592
13.2835
13.1909
13.3593
13.5026
13.5193
13.4388
13.0760
12.7678
13.1176
12.9425
Residual
-0.15543
-0.07394
0.01602
-2.0E-06
0.03030
0.08301
0.09319
-0.01353
0.08544
0.24920
-0.03171
-0.09285
-0.11177
-0.07792
0.14475
-0.49073
-0.01158
-0.10278
0.46035
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Residual Plot
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-4.030251
1% Critical Value*
-2.7057
5% Critical Value
-1.9614
10% Critical Value
-1.6257
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/17/05 Time: 22:08
Sample(adjusted): 1985 2002
Included observations: 18 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
U(-1)
-1.166074
0.289330 -4.030251
R-squared
0.479149 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.479149 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.186751 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
0.592890 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
5.177168 Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.0009
0.034210
0.258765
-0.464130
-0.414665
1.675484
Lampiran
Dependent Variable: D(LNS)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/05 Time: 22:33
Sample(adjusted): 1985 2003
Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
C
0.449102
0.140050
3.206716
D(LNGNDI)
-6.752329
2.303915 -2.930807
D(LNR)
0.275860
0.081136
3.399948
D(LNP)
0.044714
0.014006
3.192466
D1
-0.137520
0.133981 -1.026415
U(-1)
0.653198
0.225747
2.893498
R-squared
0.804187 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.715181 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.161675 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
0.287526 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
10.55511 F-statistic
Durbin-Watson stat
2.752281 Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0084
0.0137
0.0059
0.0086
0.3267
0.0146
0.029231
0.302941
-0.535896
-0.241820
9.035201
0.001279
Lampiran 8.
Actual, Fitted, Residual Table
Model ECM Tabungan Swasta
obs
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Actual
0.02485
0.09968
0.10067
0.10674
0.10056
0.08279
0.07916
0.08632
0.08809
-0.37349
0.10730
0.12436
0.05056
-0.56214
-0.04623
-0.99831
0.17102
0.25853
0.38810
Fitted
0.07806
-0.00177
0.24229
0.08466
-0.03055
0.09645
0.18835
-0.02348
0.00590
-0.01019
-0.00131
-0.03769
0.08687
-0.48562
-0.02456
-0.92715
0.14199
0.35492
0.24958
Residual
-0.05321
0.10145
-0.14162
0.02207
0.13112
-0.01366
-0.10920
0.10981
0.08219
-0.36330
0.10861
0.16205
-0.03631
-0.04214
-0.01596
-0.07116
0.02903
-0.09639
0.13853
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Residual Plot
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Lampiran
Lampiran 9.
Investasi Swasta
Dependent Variable: LNI
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/20/05 Time: 22:00
Sample: 1984 2003
Included observations: 20
Variable
Coefficient
C
-10.14225
LNY
1.559681
LNR
-0.000520
LNP
-0.009362
LNGIY
-0.276968
D1
-0.542926
R-squared
0.979647
Adjusted R-squared
0.972378
S.E. of regression
0.065863
Sum squared resid
0.060732
Log likelihood
29.59141
Durbin-Watson stat
1.787484
Std. Error
t-Statistic
0.991400 -10.23023
0.071712
21.74909
0.004830 -0.107686
0.005149 -1.818242
0.103979 -2.663691
0.102654 -5.288884
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
0.9158
0.0905
0.0185
0.0001
12.16619
0.396295
-2.359141
-2.060422
134.7726
0.000000
Lampiran 10.
Actual, Fitted, Residual Table
Model Kointegrasi Investasi Swasta
obs
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Actual
11.5824
11.3464
11.6171
11.6660
11.7967
11.9505
12.0909
12.1160
12.1477
12.1946
12.4101
12.6429
12.6969
12.7381
12.3921
12.2207
12.3956
12.4428
12.4534
12.4229
Fitted
11.4578
11.4391
11.6421
11.7503
11.7942
11.8950
11.9924
12.1157
12.1547
12.2972
12.4202
12.6173
12.7029
12.7175
12.3961
12.2476
12.3982
12.3858
12.4693
12.4305
Residual
0.12457
-0.09276
-0.02501
-0.08426
0.00255
0.05549
0.09850
0.00025
-0.00699
-0.10257
-0.01007
0.02562
-0.00592
0.02060
-0.00404
-0.02688
-0.00257
0.05704
-0.01593
-0.00762
Residual Plot
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Lampiran
Lampiran 11.
-5.024398
1% Critical Value*
-2.6968
5% Critical Value
-1.9602
10% Critical Value
-1.6251
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/20/05 Time: 22:24
Sample(adjusted): 1985 2003
Included observations: 19 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
U(-1)
-1.021991
0.203406 -5.024398
R-squared
0.580206 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
0.580206 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
0.050103 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
0.045186 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
30.43362 Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.0001
-0.006957
0.077330
-3.098276
-3.048568
1.327735
Prob.
0.0003
0.0000
0.4026
0.0341
0.0026
0.0600
0.0004
0.044239
0.157516
-3.005318
-2.657367
31.87452
0.000001
Lampiran
Lampiran 13.
Actual, Fitted, Residual Table
Model ECM Investasi Swasta
obs
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Actual
-0.23598
0.27071
0.04895
0.13070
0.15374
0.14043
0.02505
0.03177
0.04689
0.21546
0.23280
0.05405
0.04115
-0.34601
-0.17133
0.17484
0.04724
0.01056
-0.03048
Fitted
-0.23250
0.23782
0.08776
0.12148
0.12070
0.06056
0.03978
0.04629
0.12107
0.23396
0.22873
0.10154
-0.01146
-0.34358
-0.16673
0.15362
0.00227
0.02212
0.01712
Residual
-0.00348
0.03289
-0.03880
0.00922
0.03305
0.07986
-0.01472
-0.01452
-0.07418
-0.01850
0.00407
-0.04749
0.05262
-0.00243
-0.00460
0.02122
0.04497
-0.01156
-0.04760
Residual Plot
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LNS
1.000000
0.417212
0.240745
0.161014
LNGNDI
0.417212
1.000000
-0.483362
0.287659
LNR
0.240745
-0.483362
1.000000
-0.407388
LNP
0.161014
0.287659
-0.407388
1.000000
LNI
LNY
LNR
LNP
LNGIY
LNI
1.000000
0.949902
-0.464032
0.202260
-0.449481
LNY
0.949902
1.000000
-0.562772
0.296305
-0.623707
LNR
-0.464032
-0.562772
1.000000
-0.355894
0.625217
LNP
0.202260
0.296305
-0.355894
1.000000
-0.357539
LNGIY
-0.449481
-0.623707
0.625217
-0.357539
1.000000