Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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TNG QUAN V NGHIN CU BIN I KH HU

V CC HOT NG THCH NG MIN NAM VIT NAM
(An overview of climate change research and adaptation activities
in Southern Vietnam)
L Anh Tun
Khoa Mi trng v Ti nguyn Thin nhin
Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu - i hc Cn Th
E-mail: latuan@ctu.edu.vn
--- oOo --TM TT
Cc bo co chnh thc xut bn vo nm 2007 ca U ban Lin Chnh ph v Bin i
Kh hu (IPCC), Ngn hng Th gii (WB), Chng trnh Mi trng ca Lin hip quc
(UNDP) u cnh bo Vit Nam nm trong nhm cc quc gia chu tc ng cao do hin
tng bin i kh hu v nc bin dng. Vng ng bng sng Cu Long c xem
ni chu tn thng mi mt nghim trng nht ca Vit Nam do l ln, bo t bt
thng, hn hn ko di, ma ma n tr du v v ln hn vo cui v, nc bin dng,
s xm nhp mn, ...
Bo co ny nh mt lc kho cc kt qu nghin cu dn chng cho s phng on v
bin i kh hu Vit Nam ni chung v min Nam ni ring, c bit nhn mng vng
ng bng sng Cu Long.
Bo co trnh by cc hot ng ca Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn
Th, nu ln mt s hot ng hin nay ti mt s a phng nhm tm i sch thch
ng vi s bt thng ca kh hu trong tng lai. Cui cng l mt s xut hp tc
chia s thng tin v chuyn gia gia cc a phng v cp quc gia.
T kho: Bin i kh hu, Nc bin dng, Tn thng, Thch ng, ng bng sng
Cu Long.

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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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1. DN NHP
Vit Nam l mt quc gia nm trong khu vc ng Nam chu (Hnh 1), chu nh
hng ca vng gi ma, kh hu nng v m rt c trng. Vit Nam c mt b bin di
3.444 km nhn ra Thi Bnh dng. Vit Nam hin nay (2009) khong 89 triu ngi,
mt dn s cao cc vng tp trung ngun nc nh cc chu th sng Hng, sng
Cu Long v cc ca sng, ca bin dc theo min Trung. Hot ng sn xut chnh
Vit Nam l nng nghip, thu hi sn v din ra ch yu vng nng thn, vng ni v
vng ven bin. Hu ht cc thin tai gy thit hi cho sn xut v i sng Vit Nam
u c lin quan vi s bt thng ca kh hu v ngun nc (Tun, 2009).
Bin i kh hu l mt thc th din tin trong qu kh v hin ti v c phng on
l c th bin ng nhanh hn trong tng lai. S pht thi qu nhiu cht kh nh CO2,
CH4, CFC, ... vo bu kh quyn gy nn hiu ng nh knh, h qu to nn hin tng
nng ln ton cu lm bng Bc v Nam cc, cng nh cc di bng dy ni cao tan
nhanh hn khin mc nc bin ang c xu th dng cao, cn cn tun hon nc thay
i lm e da ton b h sinh thi hin hu, c bit l cc vng t thp, vng ven bin.
Vit Nam l mt trong cc nc chu nhiu tc ng ca thin tai. Cc vng t thp ven
bin min Nam Vit Nam c xem l vng nhy cm, d chu nhiu tn thng do ni
y c mt dn c tp trung tng i cao, sn xut nng nghip v ng nghip chu
l thuc ln vo thi tit, ngun nc. Vng ng bng sng Cu Long (BSCL) l
vng sn xut nng nghip v nui trng thu sn quan trng nht Vit Nam. Vng ny
cung cp hn 50% sn lng la v 65% sn lng thu sn cho c nc. V mt sinh
thi, vng BSCL l t ngp nc ln nht Vit Nam (Tuan and Guido, 2007), c y
cc kiu rng st ngp mn, ngp l, rng ngp nc c than bn, vng rng trm
ngp nc ngt, nc phn. Tuy l ni sn xut nng ng nghip ln, vng BSCL vn
cn l mt khu vc c mc tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) thp, GDP bnh qun u
ngi nm 2007 l 9,47 triu ng, tng ng 591 USD, t tc tng trng GDP
l 12,34%, trnh dn tr cn km, thiu thn v c s h tng, nh ca tm b. BSCL
l mt trong ba chu th trn th gii c nguy c nh hng cc k nghim trng ca
bin i kh hu trong 30-50 nm na (IPCC, 2007).
n nay, vic nghin cu lin quan n bin i kh hu Vit Nam ni chung v min
Nam Vit Nam ni ring cha c nhiu. Vic chun b thch ng ch mi bc u v
mi c thc hin mt s a phng ring r. Mc tiu ca bo co ny lc kho
cc kt qu nghin cu v ang thc hin, cc d n ang trin khai v mt s cng
vic chun b ban u thch ng, tm cch gim nh cc tc ng tiu cc v tn dng
nhng c hi c th c ng vi tng kch bn thay i kh hu trong tng lai. Bo co
cng lit k mt s hot ng ca Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th.
Cui cng bo co xut vic hnh thnh mang li thng tin gia cc nh khoa hc,
cc cp chnh quyn a phng nhm chia s nhng kt qu nghin cu, bi hc kinh
nghim v cc bin php, i sch d kin trin khai ca tng a phng.

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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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Hnh 1: Bn cao Vit Nam (trn) v bn min Nam Vit Nam (di)
2.

LC KHO KT QU CC NGHIN CU V BIN I KH HU NH

HNG N VIT NAM
Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (ADP, 1994) xp Vit Nam, c bit l vng ng bng
sng Cu Long, nm trong nhm quc gia c nguy c tn thng cao do tc ng ca
hin tng bin i kh hu v nc bin dng. Hip nh khung v Bin i Kh hu ca
Lin hip quc (UNFCCC, 2003) dn chng Thng bo u tin ca Vit Nam v
Bin i Kh hu (SRV, MONRE 2003) cho bit trong sut 30 nm va qua, mc nc
quan trc dc theo b bin Vit Nam c du hiu gia tng, B Ti nguyn v Mi trng
c tnh n nm 2050 mc nc bin s gia tng thm 33 cm v n nm 2100 s tng
thm 1 mt. Vi nguy c ny, Vit Nam s chu tn tht mi nm chng 17 t USD
(chim 80% tng sn phm ni a GDP). Nhiu nghin cu ca Vin Khoa hc Kh
tng Thu vn v Mi trng. Vin Khoa hc thu li min Nam u c nhng
nghin cu lin quan n bin i kh hu Vit Nam v ng bng sng Cu Long.
Reiner v cc cng s (2004) cng b mt nghin cu trn m hnh ton thu lc
phng on cc din bin ngp l ng bng sng Mekong trong thi on thng 8 n
thng 11 vi kch bn mc nc bin dng 20 cm v 50 cm. Kt qu cho thy ng
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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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ng mc ngp l s m rng tng ng vi mc nc dng 20 cm v 50 cm s l 25 km

v 50 km v pha h lu. giai on u ca l (thng 8), mc nc trung bnh vng
ng bng s gia tng thm 14,1 cm (khi nc bin dng 20 cm) v 32,2 cm (khi nc
bin dng 50 cm). n k nh l (thng 10), mc gia tng mc ngp tng ng ny s l
11.9 cm v 27,4 cm.
Nicholls v Lowe (2006) tnh rng khi mc nc bin dng cao 40 cm, s nn nhn ca
l trn th gii hin nay l 13 triu ngi s tng ln 94 triu ngi. Khong 20% trong
s h sng vng ng Nam , trong vng b nh hng nng nht l vng ng
bng sng Cu Long v tip n l vng ng bng sng Hng.
y ban Lin Chnh ph v Bin i Kh hu - IPCC (2007) qua phn tch v phng on
cc tc ng ca nc bin dng cng nhn ba vng chu th c xp trong nhm
cc k nguy c do s bin i kh hu l vng h lu sng Mekong (Vit Nam), sng
Ganges - Brahmaputra (Bangladesh) v sng Nile (Ai Cp). Chng trnh Pht trin ca
Lin hip quc UNDP (2007) nh gi: khi nc bin tng ln 1 mt, Vit Nam s mt
5% din tch t ai, 11% ngi dn mt nh ca, gim 7% sn lng nng nghip
(tng ng 5 triu tn la v 10% thu nhp quc ni. BSCL s c khong 2 triu ha
nm di mc nc bin.
Dasgupta v cc cng s (2007) cng b mt nghin cu chnh sch do Ngn hng
Th gii - WB - xut bn xp Vit Nam nm trong nhm 5 quc gia chu nh hng
cao nht do bin i kh hu. Ti Vit Nam, hai ng bng sng Hng v BSCL chu
nh hng nng nht. Khi nc bin dng cao 1 mt, c chng 5.3% din tch t nhin,
10,8% dn s, 10,2% GDP, 10,9% vng th, 7,2% din tch nng nghip v 28,9%
vng t thp s b nh hng. Ri ro BSCL, bao gm c hn hn v l lt, s gia
tng vi cc trn ma c cng cao v cc ngy hn ko di (Peter v Greet, 2008).
Hanh v Furukawa (2007) da vo nhng ghi nhn trm o thu triu Vit Nam
kt lun v nhng bng chng ca s dng ln ca mc nc bin: trung bnh mi nm
mc nc bin Vit Nam tng trong khong 1,75 2,56 mm/nm.
Nm 2009, Trung tm START vng ng Nam (i hc Chulalongkorn, Thi Lan) v
Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu - i hc Cn Th phi hp chy m hnh kh hu
vng PRECIS vi kch bn A2 v B2, da vo chui s liu kh hu giai on 1980-2000
phng on giai on 2030-2040. Kt qu m hnh cho thy nhiu khu vc ca vng
ng bng sng Cu Long s b tc ng sau (Tuan and Supparkorn, 2009):
Nhit cao nht trung bnh trong ma kh s gia tng t 33-35C ln 35-37C
(Hnh 2).
Lng ma u v H Thu (15/4 - 15/5) s gim chng 10-20%.
S phn b ma thng s c khuynh hng gim vo u v gia v H Thu
nhng gia tng mt t vo cui ma ma (Hnh 3).
Tng lng ma nm ti An Giang,Cn Th v Sc Trng s gim chng 20%,
ng thi thi k bt u ma ma s tr hn khong 2 tun l.
Din tch ngp BSCL do l s gia tng (Hnh 4).

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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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Hnh 2: S thay i nhit ln nht trung bnh thp nin 2030 so vi thp nin 1980

Hnh 3: S thay i lng ma thng BSCL thp nin 2030 so vi thp nin 1080

Hnh 4: Phng on s thay i din tch ngp vo thp nin 2030 so vi thp nin 1080
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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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3. CC HOT NG NGHIN CU THCH NG MIN NAM VIT NAM

V mt th ch chnh sch, Vit Nam c nhng vn bn chnh thc ca Nh nc lin
quan n pht trin bn vng v bin i kh hu theo trnh t thi gian nh sau:
1998: Vit Nam tham gia k Ngh nh th Kyoto vo thng 12/1998 v chnh
thc ph chun Ngh nh th vo thng 9/2002.
2003: Bo co Quc gia u tin ca Vit Nam theo Hip nh khung v Bin
i Kh hu ca Lin hip quc (SRV, MONRE, 2003).
2004: Cng b Bo co Quc gia v Gim thiu Ri ro Thin tai Vit Nam
(SRV, 2004).
2004: Quyt nh ca Th tng Chnh ph v nh hng Chin lc Pht
trin Bn vng Vit Nam hay cn gi l Chng trnh Ngh s 21 ca Vit
Nam (Th tng Chnh ph, 2004).
2005: Th tng Chnh ph ra Hng dn s 35/2005/TTg ngy 17/12/2005 v
vic thc hin Ngh nh th Kyoto Vit Nam (Th tng Chnh ph, 2005).
2007: Th tng Chnh ph ra Quyt nh s 47/2007/TTg ngy 6/4/2007 ph
duyt K hoch Thc hin Ngh nh th Kyoto trong giai on 2007 -2010
(Th tng Chnh ph, 2007).
2007: Cng b Chin lc Quc gia v Phng chng, Thch nghi v Gim nh
Thin tai n nm 2020 (SRV, 2007).
2008: Cng b Chng trnh Mc tiu Quc gia ng ph vi Bin i Kh hu.
Quyt nh s 158/2008/Q-TTg ngy 2/12/2008 ca Th tng Chnh ph
(Th tng Chnh ph, 2008).
T xa, ngi dn min Nam Vit Nam kh nhanh nhn trong vic thch ng vi cc quy
lut din bin thi tit hng nm nh l trn sng, hn ma kh, xm nhp mn, khan
him nc ngt, ... Nng dn sng to ra nhiu hnh thc sng chung vi l, xy
lng, lm nh sn, iu chnh lch thi v, ... Tuy nhin khong nm 2005 v trc, vn
bin i kh hu nc bin dng dng nh cn kh xa l v cha c quan tm
ng mc i vi nhiu ngi dn v gii lnh o min Nam Vit Nam, mc du phn
ln trong s h cng tng nghe n hin tng ny.
Cc nm gn y, nhng din bin kh hu bt thng xut hin thng xuyn hn
Vit Nam khin mi ngi bt u ch v c nhng hot ng ban u nhm i
ph v thch ng vi hon cnh mi. Bo ch thng xuyn c nhng phng s v
bin i kh hu. Mt s Hi tho v Bin i Kh hu c t chc TP. HCM v
cc tnh ng bng sng Cu Long.
Ngy 20/11/2008, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu Kh hu i hc Cn Th (gi tt
l Vin DRAGON-Mekong-CTU) ra mt nh mt t chc hp tc gia Cc Kho st
a cht Hoa K (USGS) v trng i hc Cn Th. Vin ny c hnh thnh theo
mt tho thun gia hai chnh ph Hoa K v Vit Nam sau cuc gp g ca Tng thng
Hoa K George W. Bush v Th tng Vit Nam Nguyn Tn Dng. Vin ny l thnh
vin u tin ca cc Vin DRAGON (Delta Research and Global Observation Network
Mng li Nghin cu ng bng v Quan trc Ton cu). Trong bi pht biu ra mt
Vin, B Tr l Ngoi trng Hoa K Anne Murray nhn mnh y l c s nghin cu
khoa hc u tin lin quan trc tip n bin i kh hu ca Vit Nam v c s nghin
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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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cu khoa hc u tin ca Hoa K nm ngoi lnh th ca nc ny. Nm 2009, trng

i hc Cn Th u tin a mn hc Bin i Kh hu v Kh nng Thch ng vo
chng trnh ging dy Thc s.
Thng 3/2009, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu - i hc Cn Th kt hp vi
Trung tm Vng START ng Nam (SEA START RC), Nhm Nghin cu Pht trin
v Nc, i hc K Thut Helsinki (TKK), Phn Lan v Vn phng ca Qu Hoang d
Th gii (WWF) t chc Hi tho "nh gi nhanh tc ng, tnh d tn thng v
kh nng thch nghi vi bin i kh hu v l lt BSCL" ti i hc Cn Th. Hi
tho c s ti tr ca Mng li Chu - Thi Bnh Dng v Nghin cu Bin i
Kh hu Ton cu v B Ngai giao Phn Lan. Tham d Hi tho c 30 ngi l nng
dn nng nghip, nui trng thy sn v doanh nghip nh t cc tnh An Giang, ng
Thp, Cn Th, Bc Liu v Tr Vinh cng vi nhiu ging vin, nghin cu vin,
chuyn gia t vn ca cc t chc Phi Chnh ph. Qua Hi tho, nng dn xut cc
bin php thch nghi nh thay i c cu ma v, lm bao, trng rng, tm ging cy
con mi, tr nc sch, cc bin php hn ch tn thng cho tr em (nh gi tr ma l,
tp bi, pht o phao, thuyn y t, thuyn a tr i hc, ...).
Thng 4/2009, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu - i hc Cn Th va t mt tha
thun thc hin d n nghin cu "Tc ng ca bin i kh hu v nh gi tnh tn
thng cho thnh ph Cn Th" (Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Assessment for Can Tho city). Tham gia d n, ngoi Vin DRAGON-Mekong-CTU,
gm Vin Nghin cu Chnh sch v Chin lc Khoa hc v Cng ngh (NISTPASS)
thuc B Khoa hc v Cng ngh, Vin Chuyn tip X hi v Mi trng (Institute for
Social and Environmental Transition - ISET/ M) v T chc Phi Chnh ph Th thch
Thay i (Challenge to Change - CtC), Vin Khoa hc Thy li min Nam (SIWRR) v
Trung tm T vn Kh tng-Thy vn-Mi trng (HMECC) v y ban Nhn dn
Thnh ph Cn Th. y l mt phn ca chng trnh c ti tr bi Qu Rockerfeller
(M). Chng trnh ny h tr nhm cc thnh ph Chu mng li cc thnh ph
chu (gm Vit Nam, Thi Lan, n v Indonesia) c kh nng chng chu vi bin
i kh hu (ACCCRN) xy dng cc cng c v bin php thc t ng ph bin i
kh hu, gim ngho v qun l tc th ha ang gia tng.
Ngy 27/3/2009 U ban Nhn dn Thnh ph Cn Th thnh lp Ban Ch o d n
ng ph vi Bin i Kh hu ti Thnh ph Cn Th do mt Ph Ch tch Tnh lm
Trng Ban. U Ban ang chun b ph duyt Chng trnh Mc tiu ca Thnh ph Cn
Th ng ph vi Bin i Kh hu (gi tt l Chng trnh 158).
u nm 2009, Khoa Mi trng v Ti nguyn thin nhin, trng i hc Cn Th
c d n hp tc vi t chc JIRCAS ca chnh ph Nht Bn bc u trin khai cc
hot ng th im cho C ch Pht trin Sch (Clean Development Mechanism CDM).
Mc tiu ca d n l tm cc bin php gip ngi dn gim thiu s pht thi kh nh
knh a phng.
Trung tm Hc vin Cng ngh Chu ti Vit Nam (AITCV) phi hp vi Vin
Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu - i hc Cn Th t chc mt bui Seminar cum Study
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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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Tour ti thnh ph Cn Th ngy 31/3/2009 cho cc quan chc cp B ca Bangladesh.

Hai bn trao i v cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln c s h tng nng thn ca
gia hai vng ng bng v tham quan mt vng cng trnh h tng c nguy c h hng
do l lt v nc bin dng Cn Th.
Nm 2008 2009, mt s nghin cu thch nghi v bin i kh hu v ang thc hin
mt s tnh nh Bn Tre (ca Oxfam), C Mau (ca Vin Quy hoch Thu li Nam b,
ca Qu WWF). T chc GTZ (c) cng c mt s nghin cu ban u tm phng
cch thch nghi ca nng dn, cc doanh nhn nh v va tnh Tr Vinh. D kin trong
thi gian ti, T chc GTZ s hp tc vi Vin DRAGON-Mekong-CTU trin khai
mt d n th im gip ngi dn ngho tm bin php thch nghi vi bin i kh hu
tnh Tr Vinh.
4. XUT CC HP TC NGHIN CU TIP THEO
Ngi dn Vit Nam c nhiu kinh nghim trong vic ng ph vi thin tai v cc din
bin bt thng ca thi tit. Tuy vy, vic nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc bin
php thch ng mt cch hiu qu th cn thit phi c mt s phi hp nhiu ban ngnh
v chuyn gia cc lnh vc khc nhau. Vin DRAGON-Mekong-CTU hnh thnh 5
t nghin cu:
1. T C s d liu GIS M hnh ho: Tng hp cc thng tin thnh mt b c
s d liu th hin trn nn bn H thng Thng tin a l (GIS) v cung cp
s liu cho cc m hnh ton hc.
2. T Sn xut Nng thn: Nghin cu cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu nc
bin dng ln sn xut nng nghip, nui trng thu sn v lm nghip, tm bin
php nng cao kh nng thch nghi ph hp vi sn xut nng thn.
3. T Pht trin th: Nghin cu cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu nc bin
dng ln c s h tng th. xut cc phng cch quy hoch v qun l
th thch hp.
4. T Mi trng - Sinh thi: Nghin cu s tn thng ca mi trng v h sinh
thi theo nhng kch bn bin i kh hu. xut cc bin php gim thiu cc
nguy c suy gim tnh a dng sinh hc v bo v mi trng.
5. T Kinh t - X hi v Sinh k: Nghin cu v hun luyn cho cc cng ng a
phng hiu cc nguy c ca bin i kh hu v ch dn cc cch gim thiu v
thch nghi thch hp.
Vic hnh thnh mng li chia s thng tin vi cc a phng l cn thit, bao gm:
Gii thiu m hnh phn tch din bin kh hu thch hp.
Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln cng ng.
Cc xut gim nh v thch ng vi bin i kh hu.
Trnh by cc m hnh thch nghi v kinh nghim ca a phng trong thc t.
Gii thiu cc tch hp vn bin i kh hu vi cc gii php ng ph trong
k hoch, quy hoch tng th pht trin cp a phng v cp vng.
Cc chng trnh hun luyn, chia s ti liu nghin cu.

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Tng quan v nghin cu bin i kh hu v cc hot ng thch ng min Nam Vit Nam
TS. L Anh Tun, Vin Nghin cu Bin i Kh hu i hc Cn Th

Hi tho Cng n lc thch ng bin i kh hu

CSRD Acacia Both ENDS IVM, Thnh ph Hu, Vit Nam. 11-13/5/2009
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LI CM T
Tc gi chn thnh cm n Trung tm Nghin cu v Pht trin X hi Hu, cc T
chc Acacia, Both ENDS, Vin Nghin cu Mi trng IVM (H Lan) v Vin Nghin
cu Bin i Kh hu - i hc Cn Th cng cc nh khoa hc ng nghip to iu
kin cho tc gi hnh thnh bo co ny.
L Anh Tun, PhD.
i hc Cn Th
Thng 5/2009
TI LIU THAM KHO
ADB (Asian Development Bank), 1994. Climate Change in Asia: Vietnam Country
Report, p.27.
Dasgupta Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler, and Jianping Yan,
2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative
Analysis. World Bank Policy Research, Working Paper 4136, February 2007.
Hanh, Pham Thi Thuy and Masahide Furukawa, 2007. Impact of sea level rise on coastal
zone of Vietnam. Bull. Fac. Sci. Univ. Ryukyus, 84: 45-59.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Fourth Assessment Report,
Working Group II report. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Nicholls Robert, J. and Lowe, J.A., 2006. Climate stabilisation and impacts of sea level
rise. In Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (eds. H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer,
N. Nakicenovic, T.M.L. Wigley, and G. Yohe). Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge. and Nicholls, R.J. and Tol, R.S.J. Impacts and responses to sealevel
rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Philos.
Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A, 364: 1073-1095.
Reiner Wassmann, Nguyen Xuan Hien, Chu Thai Hoanh, and To Phuc Tuong, 2004. Sea
Level Rise Affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water Elevation in the Flood
Season and Implications for Rice Production. Climatic Change, 66: 89107.
Peter Chaudhry and Greet Ruysschaert, 2008. Climate Change & Human Development in
Vietnam: A case study for the Human Development Report 2007/2008. Oxfam and
UNDP.
Tng cc Thng k, 2006. Nin gim thng k nm 2006. Nh xut bn Thng k, H
Ni, Vit Nam.
Th tng Chnh ph, 2004. nh hng Chin lc Pht trin Bn vng Vit Nam
(Chng trnh Ngh s 21 ca Vit Nam). Quyt nh s 153/2004/Q-TTg ngy
17/8/2004 ca Th tng Chnh ph. H Ni, Vit Nam.
Th tng Chnh ph, 2005. Hng dn s 35/2005/TTg ngy 17/12/2005 v vic thc
hin Ngh nh th Kyoto Vit Nam. H Ni, Vit Nam.
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