High

Close = next day assessment

Opening=investor perception about the day
Typical price= reflection of all four prices average of all four
Mean and sta deviation for returns only not for price
Return= ln(current yr price/last yr price)
To calculate the annualized return we use
(1+R)^238-1
*238 is no of observations

Anaulize SD
=SD/{238}^.5
Monte Carlo simulation used for assessing future price on the basis of probabilities
of future prices

Mote carlo needs to involve steps

Or the no of observations before it can reach the targeted period
e.g if we want to reach Price for DEC 2015 we will have to involve steps or the each
days price before reaching dec 2015

Monte carlo
Procedures
1
2. length of forecast=steps
3. Expectations about mean return of the next period + its volitity that is SD

Therefore

We need
1. Starting mean value
2. Starting SD
3. steps