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    Quantitative Techiniques

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    John Nowell Diestro
    The document summarizes enrollment data for the University of the West from 2000-2008 and requires forecasting the 2009 enrollment using various techniques: 1) Three-year weighted moving average forecast predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4411 students. 2) Smooth forecast with a=0.30 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4197 students. 3) Forecast with a=0.10 and MAD calculates forecasting errors from 2001-2008. 4) Four-year weighted moving average from 2004-2009 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4410 students.

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    Quantitative Techiniques

    Uploaded by

    John Nowell Diestro
    29 views8 pages
    The document summarizes enrollment data for the University of the West from 2000-2008 and requires forecasting the 2009 enrollment using various techniques: 1) Three-year weighted moving average forecast predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4411 students. 2) Smooth forecast with a=0.30 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4197 students. 3) Forecast with a=0.10 and MAD calculates forecasting errors from 2001-2008. 4) Four-year weighted moving average from 2004-2009 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4410 students.

    Original Description:

    Quantitative Techniques

    Original Title

    Quantitative Techiniques (6)

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    The document summarizes enrollment data for the University of the West from 2000-2008 and requires forecasting the 2009 enrollment using various techniques: 1) Three-year weighted moving average forecast predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4411 students. 2) Smooth forecast with a=0.30 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4197 students. 3) Forecast with a=0.10 and MAD calculates forecasting errors from 2001-2008. 4) Four-year weighted moving average from 2004-2009 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4410 students.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    29 views8 pages

    Quantitative Techiniques

    Uploaded by

    John Nowell Diestro
    The document summarizes enrollment data for the University of the West from 2000-2008 and requires forecasting the 2009 enrollment using various techniques: 1) Three-year weighted moving average forecast predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4411 students. 2) Smooth forecast with a=0.30 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4197 students. 3) Forecast with a=0.10 and MAD calculates forecasting errors from 2001-2008. 4) Four-year weighted moving average from 2004-2009 predicts 2009 enrollment will be 4410 students.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 8

    Suppose that the University of the West had the

    following data of its growth of enrollment from 20002008.


    Year

    Enrollment

    2000

    3000

    2001

    3200

    2002

    3600

    2003

    3650

    2004

    4000

    2005

    4200

    2006

    4300

    2007

    4410

    2008

    4520

    Requirements:
    a. Forecast the 2009 enrollment using three-year
    weighted moving average forecast.
    b. Using smooth a=0.30, forecast the 2009 enrollment.
    c. Using MAD, solve for the forecasting error at a=0.10.
    d. Use four-year weighted moving average from 2004 to
    2009.

    Year

    Enrollment 3 year
    weighted
    moving
    average

    Forecast
    30%

    Forecast
    10%

    Error

    3 year
    weighted
    moving
    average

    2000

    3000

    2001

    3200

    3000

    3000

    200

    2002

    3600

    3060

    3020

    580

    2003

    3650

    3367

    3222

    3078

    572

    2004

    4000

    3558

    3350

    3135

    865

    3480

    2005

    4200

    3817

    3545

    3200

    1000

    3735

    2006

    4300

    4042

    3742

    3300

    1000

    3970

    2007

    4410

    4217

    3909

    3400

    1010

    4145

    2008

    4520

    4338

    4059

    3501

    1019

    4294

    4447

    4197

    3603

    27786

    32084

    29273

    2009
    34880

    4411
    6246

    24035

    A. Forecast the 2009 enrollment using three-year


    weighted moving average forecast.
    200
    3
    200
    4
    200
    5
    200
    6
    200
    7
    200

    3000(1)+3200(2)+3600(3)=20200/6=336
    7
    3200(1)+3600(2)+3650(3)=21350/6=355
    8
    3600(1)+3650(2)+4000(3)=22900/6=381
    7
    3650(1)+4000(2)+4200(3)=24250/6=404
    2
    4000(1)+4200(2)+4300(3)=25300/6=421
    7
    4200(1)+4300(2)+4410(3)=26030/6=433

    B. Using smooth a=0.30, forecast the 2009 enrollment.


    20
    01
    200
    2
    200
    3
    200
    4
    200
    5
    200
    6

    3000
    3000+.30(3200-3000)=3000
    3060+.30(3600-3060)=3222
    3222+.30(3650-3222)=3350
    3350+.30(4000-3350)=3545
    3545+.30(4200-3545)=3742

    C. Using MAD, solve for the forecasting error at a=0.10.


    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009

    3000
    3000+.10(3200-3000)=3020
    3020+.10(3600-3020)=3078
    3078+.10(3650-3078)=3135
    3135+.10(4000-3135)=3200
    3200+.10(4200-3200)=3300
    3300+.10(4300-3300)=3400
    3400+.10(4410-3400)=3501
    3501+.10(4520-3501)=3603

    Error
    200
    1
    200
    2
    200
    3
    200
    4
    200
    5
    200
    6

    3200-3000=200
    3600-3020=580
    3650-3078=572
    4000-3135=865
    4200-3200=1000
    4300-3300=1000

    D. Use four-year weighted moving average from 2004 to


    2009.
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009

    3000(1)+3200(2)+3600(3)+3650(4)=34800/10=
    3480
    3200(1)+3600(2)+3650(3)+4000(4)=37350/10=
    3735
    3600(1)+3650(2)+4000(3)+4200(4)=39700/10=
    3970
    3650(1)+4000(2)+4200(3)+4300(4)=41450/10=
    4145
    4000(1)+4200(2)+4300(3)+4410(4)=42940/10=
    4294
    4200(1)+4300(2)+4410(3)+4520(4)=44110/10=

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