Election 2015: What happens if none of the parties

wins a majority?
Assumption that party who wins the most seats automatically becomes minority
government isn't true
By On The Island, CBC News Posted: Oct 07, 2015 2:59 PM PT Last Updated: Oct 07, 2015 3:11 PM PT

What happens if no one party wins a majority of seats? (Reuters/Canadian Press)

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With the election less than two weeks away, most election polls show the Conservatives and
Liberals in a tight race with neither winning the majority of seats. If that were to happen, what
would it mean for us: a minority government? A hung Parliament? A coalition? Another election?

Andrew Heard, a professor at SFU, is one of a few Canadian scholars who specializes in
constitutional conventions. He explained how things could pan out after October 19 if none of
the parties win a majority.
Expect Conservative and Liberal 'knife fight' in final 2 weeks of campaign
Coalition government could be possible, but party leaders are divided
Advance polls considered crucial in close campaign

What is a minority or "hung" parliament?

No one single party wins the majority of seats. In our system, the authority for governing comes
from winning a majority of seats or having the support of the majority of members of the House
of Commons.

Does the party that wins the most seats, even if it's not a majority, automatically get to
form a minority government?
It's often been presented as the rule that should apply and it's occurred more often than not.
But, the problem is the suggested rule really lacks a solid reason behind it.
Let's say a party that was in second place had an agreement with a party in third or fourth place.
Together they had the majority of seats that to me, fulfills the main criteria for our system of
government: if you have a majority, then you have the authority to govern. A leader who finishes
first, who clearly does not have the support of the majority to me, doesn't have an automatic
right.

What do those second and third place parties have to agree to? Does it have to be a
formal coalition?
If the opposition parties make [their partnership] very clear, very soon, in the days after the
election, they have the right to form government. It would have to be some kind of formal
statement, it doesn't have to be a coalition government where both parties are in cabinet just
some kind of public statement, preferably written where the leaders agree to work together for a
particular period of time. The smaller party agrees to support the larger party on confidence
votes.

Who has final say on all of this?

The Governor General. But initially, the ball is in the incumbent prime minister's court. The
wrinkle in our system is traditionally the incumbent prime minister has a right to meet with
Parliament and try to win its confidence unless another party wins the majority of seats.
So even if the second and third place parties have a majority, the incumbent prime minister can
say, "let's give it two months. We'll wait until Parliament meets and maybe the agreement
between the opposition parties will break down or I can make policy concessions so that I can
get the support of one of those parties.

Does that mean Stephen Harper has an advantage in maintaining his role as Prime
Minister being the incumbent in this election?
Part of that will depend on the agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. If it is written
down that becomes a formal agreement whether it's a minority or a coalition. In that case, I
don't think the Prime Minister has much option but to resign.

Could another election immediately follow the one on October 19? How would that come
about?
Say, the NDP and the Liberals dragged their feet on reaching an agreement on an alternative
government. The Prime Minister could wait to meet with Parliament. In theory he has 12
months, but in practice four to five months would be the tolerable period. That gives him a lot of
wiggle room and time. Even when Parliament has met, he has quite a bit of flexibility in when he
holds a confidence vote. If he is then defeated, he can say, "it's been six to seven months and
things are still up in the air, I think it's time we went back to the people and sort it out with a new
election." Then it's up to the Governor General to approve that.

To hear the full interview listen to the audio labelled What happens if no party wins the
majority of seats? with CBC's Gregor Craigie with On The Island.